Why this jobs report matters

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Friday Jan 05,2024 01:02 pm
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POLITICO Morning Money

By Zachary Warmbrodt

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QUICK FIX

This morning’s December jobs report, which is expected to show solid yet decelerating growth in the labor market, may help the Federal Reserve tap the brakes on the fervor for interest rate cuts.

It’s the most significant snapshot of the U.S. jobs picture since the Fed signaled last month that it was done hiking rates amid mounting evidence that inflation is declining. The pivot helped fuel a year-end market rally as well as hopes for an initial rate cut for the March FOMC meeting.

Fed officials have since tried to temper expectations. Fed meeting minutes released this week showed there was no clear timeline for easing monetary policy amid heightened economic uncertainty.

The December jobs data will indicate whether the Fed may proceed with a little more urgency.

“It’s a question of, is the labor market going to be an extra reason for the Fed to cut or not?” Employ America executive director Skanda Amarnath told MM.

Let’s get into how today’s jobs report fits into the tug-of-war between Wall Street and the Fed.

What economists expect 

Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast that nonfarm payrolls likely increased by a net 175,000 in December and that the unemployment rate edged up to 3.8 percent. That would be a dip from the 199,000 increase in October and well below the monthly average for the prior year. It would be a sign of continued cooling during an unexpectedly strong period of job growth that has persisted despite elevated interest rates.

Why it matters

Fed watchers believe it would take a more significant slowdown — something below 100,000 jobs added — to accelerate rate cuts.

“Anything between 150,000-200,000 — that’s pretty healthy,” State Street senior macro strategist Noel Dixon told MM. “If you get below 100,000 … people will start to get scared. Then we’ll start talking about a hard landing.”

But Dixon says March rate cuts will be off the table if the number comes in line or slightly above expectations.

“The market might have gotten ahead of itself with the six rate cuts that it has priced,” he said. “By any standard, the U.S. economy is still pretty strong.”

There’s another view that the Fed might want to act sooner before something in the economy breaks.

Amarnath, with Employ America, said a smart tactic for the Fed would be to look at January’s inflation data, and if it confirms the trend from the last several months, “it makes a lot of sense to start to tee up a really active conversation about cuts.”

“You leave these high interest rates around for too long, you will run into trouble eventually,” he said. “This has been a core Fed mistake for the previous three decades.”

How voters and businesses see it

A JPMorgan Chase survey of small and midsize business leaders released this week showed that their recession expectations are waning, but most are not optimistic about the U.S. economy as a whole. A slight majority of Americans continue to disapprove of President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy, according to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted in late December and early January.

Martha Gimbel, who served on Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers and is now a research scholar at Yale Law School, said it’s been a “gang-busters recovery” coming out of the pandemic but some sectors are still lagging behind.

New analysis from Gimbel found that the industries that have seen the strongest job growth the last 12 months in a Covid-19 bounceback are scenic and sightseeing transportation followed by performing arts, spectator sports and related industries.

It’s evidence, she said, that there’s still some room for the labor market to grow.

“Most of us have put the pandemic out of our minds,” she said. “But not every industry has been able to do so.”

Happy Friday — What’s your take on the job numbers? Send a note to zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

Driving the day

The BLS releases its December jobs report at 8:30 a.m.

Luetkemeyer exit shakes up Washington’s financial power players — Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Missouri lawmaker who had a strong chance of becoming the top Republican on House Financial Services next year, announced his retirement Wednesday. The news was unexpected for many committee watchers who have gotten to know Luetkemeyer during his tenure, including your MM host.

Luetkemeyer has been a leader on major banking and insurance policy issues that have moved through the committee for several years, and he served as the top Republican on House Small Business during the pandemic.

Looking forward, his departure opens up the race to succeed Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), who also plans to leave Congress at the end of this term. Luetkemeyer had a seniority edge over Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.), the committee vice chair who’s been seen as the other top contender.

Luetkemeyer’s exit doesn’t seal the deal for Hill. It could make it even more of a scramble with Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), who has said for weeks that he’s pursuing the spot, and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), who is also expected to enter the race.

It’s hard to say with certainty who has the clear advantage. A big variable is whether Speaker Mike Johnson keeps his job as the top House GOP leader. He or his successor would have an outsize say on the steering committee, which selects chairs and ranking members.

Crypto

First in MM: Lummis backs crypto-friendly Ohio Senate candidate — Capitol Hill’s top crypto proponents are wading into the high-stakes 2024 Ohio Senate race in a bid to knock out one of the industry’s top foes: Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

The crypto crowd is quickly lining up behind Bernie Moreno, a Trump-backed GOP primary candidate who has championed efforts to turn Cleveland into a hub for blockchain innovation.

Our Jasper Goodman reports that Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), a Banking Committee member who has been dubbed the Senate’s “crypto queen,” endorsed Moreno Friday. She said in a statement shared first with MM that the former car dealer’s “success as a businessman and deep understanding of financial technology will make him an invaluable member of the U.S. Senate, particularly in terms of combatting China and ensuring our nation's continued role as the world's financial leader.”

Earlier this week, Moreno locked up the backing of the Club for Growth, which has also pushed for pro-crypto policies, and Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), a digital asset supporter who previously considered running for the seat himself.

Moreno, who also has the backing of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), said in a statement that Lummis “has been a leader in the Senate on blockchain, limited government and economic freedom.”

“I’m excited to get to work with her, and I'm honored by her early support in this race,” he said.

On the Hill

Hearing intel: Credit cards, FSOC and housing — Our Eleanor Mueller reports that Senate Judiciary members are discussing a potential hearing this month or next on Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Sen. Roger Marshall’s (R-Kan.) bill to crack down on credit card fees, according to a Senate GOP aide. It comes as banks and retailers wage a fierce lobbying battle over the legislation.

Senate Banking is planning a hearing on fentanyl financing for next Thursday, per another Republican aide.

House Financial Services is planning hearings next week on HUD and FHA oversight, DOL's fiduciary rule and the impact of FSOC's new SIFI designation framework on "innovation."

China

Citi plans China expansion — The FT reports that Citigroup plans to launch an investment banking unit in China, even as its rivals grow more cautious there. It intends to open the wholly owned unit by the end of the year. Citi is undergoing a major restructuring.

Climate

FEMA buys flood reinsurance — Our James Bikales reports that FEMA has struck agreements to shift another $619.5 million of the National Flood Insurance Program’s risk to private reinsurers. When combined with three capital markets reinsurance placements in 2021-2023, FEMA has transferred $1.9 billion of the NFIP’s flood risk to the private sector.

Fly Around

People moves — Alberto Musalem will be the St. Louis Fed’s president starting April 2. He was most recently CEO and co-chief investment officer of Evince Asset Management … Leigh Farris is joining BlackRock from the Carlyle Group. She’ll be the asset manager’s global head of corporate communications starting in March.

 

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