A Q&A with Brian Moynihan

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Monday Jan 29,2024 01:02 pm
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By Zachary Warmbrodt

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QUICK FIX

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan is entering his 15th year at the helm of the country’s second-largest lender. He may keep a lower profile than some of his C-suite peers, but in Washington he’s been a go-to banker for a series of administrations and a key player in shaping how the industry engages with policymakers. In Davos a couple weeks ago, he was in the middle of discussions involving the U.S. and Wall Street leaders about how to rebuild Ukraine’s economy.

Your MM host interviewed Moynihan for about a half hour earlier this month about the economic outlook, the industry’s big fight with regulators and the political environment for bankers. What follows are highlights from the Q&A, edited for length and clarity.

On the economic outlook 

Our core view of the economy has two elements.

One is we have our research team, which is one of the best in the business. Their basic view is that the U.S. has a soft landing. They had a recession always predicted a year out for the last two to three years … but as they get closer to it, it keeps pushing out. Why is that? The consumer continues to spend. Employment levels are still very strong in a historical context. Wage growth was actually strong.

The second thing we have is what goes on in our customer base. Sixty-odd million consumers, about $4.5 trillion going into the economy every year. We monitor it every week.

The consumers slowed down. They still have money. They still have the ability to borrow. But they’re being more conservative in what they’re spending.

It’s more of a normalized position now. Now the question is, if they stay employed, you ought to be able to have a soft landing.

 

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The risks 

You’ve got the Middle East conflict, the Hamas attack in Israel. You’ve got the near-term economic ramifications of that, questions of the shipping having to go all the way around. That raises prices for goods.

You have the amount of money that’s being dedicated to the various sectors of conflict out of these economies. There’s an economic impact of that if they escalate in any direction.

We worry about all those geopolitical risks. The China-U.S. relationship, making sure that gets back on solid ground. The India-U.S. relationship, making sure that stays on solid ground.

At the end of the day, capitalists and entrepreneurs don’t like uncertainty. When uncertainty comes, they slow down, behavior slows down. Also, you don’t like things outside of your control. There’s nothing more outside of control than these types of geopolitical events. Both of those cause businesses and everybody to be a little bit more conservative.

On how fragile things really are 

There’s a lot of absorption of stuff so long as people are working and they’re getting paid and they’re spending in the two biggest pockets – that’s the U.S. economy and the EU economy.

On inflation stickiness

There’ll be some bumps

The drag on the economy from higher interest rates, from higher prices, from all that stuff, is bigger than people think. So the Fed’s got to be careful that doesn’t get ahead of them because that will take us into recession.

On whether big banks will sue the Fed and other U.S. regulators to fight a proposed hike in capital requirements

This all will play out by what happens. [The proposed rule] could be withdrawn. It could be re-proposed. It could be changed dramatically. There’s a thousand things that could happen.

On the big bank versus small bank regulatory divide

If you think this is the right answer, it has to apply to everybody – large, big, medium or small.

What happens is people have a different set of rules, then they go belly up, and then we have to pay for it. It’s never good for the institution.

You start to say, well, the smaller banks aren’t systemic. But that doesn’t make any difference. If they fail, it’s not good.

On the U.S. election 

People say, who are you for, who are you against. That’s not our job.

Our company has been around since 1784, the oldest part of it. There have been some interesting elections in that time. We just have to be ready.

I get asked by somebody, do you have a drawer that says what happens if the president wins? What happens if the Republican nominee [wins]? No.

By the way, there’s an election going on all over the world that could affect economies and banks.

It’s a factor, but it’s not something that you chase, saying it would be good here and not there.

Companies are way past the life of political participants by term limits and everything else. We try to help every administration through good advice.

On whether he’s talking about ESG and sustainability any differently amid a political backlash

Why do we do clean finance? We’ve done $350 billion in environmental finance over the last few years. It’s good business, and we believe it’s good for the world to make a transition, which has to involve the oil companies, has to involve the gas companies, has to involve the pipeline makers, has to involve the solar power experts, the wind power experts, the nuclear fusion experts. It’s got to have everything.

If things are going to happen that you want to happen, the private sector has to get them done because no governments have money to spend. They’re all running big deficits. The talent’s in the private sector. So we always believe, you know, profits and purpose. That’s not a new concept.

Happy Monday — It’s good to be back after a mild case of Covid extended your MM host’s Davos detour. A huge thanks to the teammates who kept the newsletter chugging along. What’s going on? Send tips to zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

Driving the Week

Tuesday … The FOMC begins its two-day meeting on monetary policy … December job opening data is out at 10 a.m. … House Financial Services holds a hearing on China sanctions at 10 a.m. …

Wednesday … The FOMC is expected to announce that it’s holding rates steady at 2 p.m., followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. … The ADP jobs report for January is out at 8:15 a.m. … House Financial Services holds a hearing on proposed banking regulations at 10 a.m. … Senate Budget has a hearing on housing affordability at 10 a.m. … Senate Banking digs into artificial intelligence and housing at 10 a.m. …

Thursday … Senate Banking has a hearing on banking fraud and scams at 10 a.m. … A Treasury advisory committee talks terrorism insurance and risk sharing at 2 p.m.

Friday … The Labor Department releases the January job report at 8:30 a.m.

Driving the day

The Fed’s next move — The U.S. central bank won’t cut this week, but the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos says it will probably shift gears by no longer signaling that rates are more likely to rise than fall.

The Fed’s dilemma: Inflation has declined faster than expected, and that means elevated interest rates might be holding back the economy too much.

Across the Atlantic, Bloomberg reports that divisions are emerging at the ECB over lowering rates. President Christine Lagarde says there’s consensus that it’s premature to discuss rates. Another ECB member, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, says “everything will be open at our next meetings.”

The big picture — The U.S. economy “is outperforming all of its major trading partners,” per the Washington Post. The “spare-no-expense” economic policy decisions that helped the country power through the pandemic have become lessons for responding to future crises.

“The U.S. has really come out of this into a place of strength and is moving forward like Covid never happened,” said former Fed economist Claudia Sahm. “We earned this; it wasn’t just a fluke.”

Progress against a shutdown — Top appropriators in Congress have a deal on overall spending numbers, clearing a critical hurdle before federal cash expires for agencies in less than five weeks, per POLITICO’s Caitlin Emma.

Markets

A bipartisan beef at the SEC’s feet — Our Corbin Hiar reports that “an unusual collection of Senate leaders, British lords, environmentalists and a secretive lobbying group" wants the Biden administration to block Brazilian meat processing giant JBS from offering shares to U.S. investors.

 

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Crypto

Behnam pushes back — CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam is trying to tamp down concerns that enacting legislation to police the cryptocurrency industry would amount to a government stamp of approval for digital assets.

Behnam, who wants Congress to grant his agency greater authority over crypto, said "legislation is not a precursor to legitimacy,” Declan Harty reports.

"The lack of legislation has not hindered the enthusiasm for digital assets,” he said. “And for those of you who have been fighting for digital assets to go away in the absence of legislation, take a moment and see where we now find ourselves."

Fly Around

People moves Aleis Stokes, formerly of the Independent Community Bankers of America, has joined the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board as chief external relations officer

 

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