Hot inflation sparks D.C. debate — Confusion rules on infrastructure — GameStop tanks

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Friday Jun 11,2021 12:03 pm
Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Jun 11, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

Editor’s Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our s each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

Hot inflation sets of D.C. debate — I write here with Victoria Guida about the sharp May price spike and what it might mean for President Joe Biden, the Fed and the economy. Maybe it’s all going to ease off when more supply comes online and workers starting flooding back. But it’s no longer totally obvious that’s what's going to happen.

And if the surge in costs for everything from rental apartments to airline tickets and used cars kicks off a wider inflation dynamic, it could make it a lot harder for President Joe Biden to push through trillions of dollars in additional federal spending while forcing the Fed into growth-choking rate hikes.

Via Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital : “It’s probably time to be a little worried … Obviously, the Fed wants to see some inflation. But one of the mistakes they can make is letting it run too hot. And this economy is so totally accustomed to very low interest rates that even a pretty small increase from the Fed could cause it to roll over.”

Concerns over inflation were rekindled on Thursday as the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose by 5 percent in May from a year ago, the quickest pace in nearly 13 years. The so-called core rate of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.8 percent, the sharpest rise since June 1992.

White House/Fed not too worried — The expectation at the White House and within the Fed is that the elimination of supply chain issues and the return of more workers to the retail industry will ease much of the inflation pressure.

A senior White House official said the current labor supply shortage should also ease once younger workers who only recently got vaccinated feel more comfortable about returning to public-facing jobs in hotels, bars, restaurants and stores.

The big open question: Labor supply — Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson emails: “[U]ntil we have more information on the labor market - how far participation rises in the fall - it’s impossible to quantify the risk of second round effects from wages. But the prospect of tapering by year-end looks more and more likely; can’t justify continuing the QE against this backdrop.”

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend, all. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

DON'T MISS THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO will feature a special edition of our Future Pulse newsletter at the 2021 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators who are turning lessons learned from the past year into a healthier, more resilient and more equitable future. Covid-19 threatened our health and well-being, while simultaneously leading to extraordinary coordination to improve pandemic preparedness, disease prevention, diversity in clinical trials, mental health resources, food access and more. SUBSCRIBE TODAY to receive exclusive coverage from June 22-23.

 
 
Driving the Day

President Biden heads to Carbis Bay, Cornwall, UK for the G7 Summit … Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise to 84.2 from 82.9 …

GOP USES IRS LEAK TO RIP BIDEN PLANS FOR THE AGENCY — Our Aaron Lorenzo: “Ways and Means Committee Republicans … said the leak of tax information on rich Americans like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and other billionaires erodes trust in the IRS and should disqualify President Joe Biden’s proposals to boost agency enforcement.

“GOP members of the panel — without citing evidence — blamed IRS insiders for the criminal breach of private taxpayer data, and suggested the timing was fishy. Republicans have been butting heads with Biden and congressional Democrats over the administration's plans to increase IRS funding and require banks to report account information to the agency, which Republicans consider a privacy violation.”

DEAL OR NO DEAL ON INFRASTRUCTURE? — Our Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine: “Senators painted a confusing picture on the status of infrastructure talks as they left D.C. for the weekend, with some claiming major progress and others skeptical a deal is in hand.

“Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), a member of a bipartisan negotiating group, said talks are ‘in the middle stages’ … Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said the centrists don’t have an agreement but ‘we might,’ listing remaining and long-held disagreements over spending numbers and how to pay for it. …

“The negotiating crew of 10 run by Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio), has not finalized an agreement yet, according to sources in both parties. But they believe they are nearing a framework they can present to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.”

Markets

STOCKS END HIGHER — AP’s Alex Veiga: “Health care and technology companies helped drive stocks higher Thursday, bringing the S&P 500 index to a record high and out of the red for the week.

“The benchmark index rose 0.5 percent, and is on track for its third straight weekly gain. Bond yields initially rose, then mostly fell after a much-anticipated report showing a big jump in inflation last month.”

GAMESTOP FALLS 27 PERCENT — Reuters’ Aaron Saldanha, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Sinéad Carew: “Shares of GameStop Corp lost more than a quarter of their value on Thursday and other so-called meme stocks also declined in a sell-off that hit a broad range of names favored by retail investors.

“The video game retailer’s shares closed down 27.16 percent at $220.39, their biggest one-day percentage loss in 11 weeks. The drop came a day after GameStop said in a quarterly report that it may sell up to 5 million new shares, sparking concerns of potential dilution for existing shareholders.”

WALL STREET FACES ALL THE SAME REFLATION DOUBTS AFTER CPI BEAT — Bloomberg’s Sam Potter and Anchalee Worrachate: “After weeks of drift and doubt, Wall Street was looking for a decisive signal on price growth to help put the reflation trade back on track.

"Instead it got another mixed message. Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in May at the fastest pace since 2008, yet the details of data released Thursday supported the Federal Reserve’s view that the jump will prove transitory.”

Fly Around

INFLATION IS HIGHEST IN 13 YEARS — WSJ’s Gwynn Guilford: “The U.S. economy’s rebound from the pandemic is driving the biggest surge in inflation in nearly 13 years, with consumer prices rising in May by 5 percent from a year ago.

“The Labor Department said last month’s increase in the consumer-price index was the largest since August 2008, when the reading rose 5.4 percent. The core-price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, jumped 3.8 percent in May from the year before—the largest increase for that reading since June 1992.”

But hotter inflation has failed to shake markets out of torpor — Reuters’ Karen Pierog: “Investors are not freaking out over a spike in U.S. inflation in the past two months, showing confidence that the Federal Reserve is deftly handling a rebound in economic growth even as it leaves markets guessing about how it defines "transitory" when it talks about price increases.

“In fact, Wall Street's benchmark index inched to a record high after days of sideways trading, and U.S. Treasury yields eased after Thursday's Labor Department report showed the consumer price index (CPI) in May had its biggest year-on-year jump in 13 years.”

And the inflation rate climb has added impetus to a Fed policy shift — WSJ’s Paul Kiernan: “The recent inflation surge gives Federal Reserve officials further reason to begin discussing an eventual wind-down of their pandemic-driven easy-money policies at their meeting next week.

“A growing number of economists are becoming concerned that the Fed could fall behind the curve on inflation as it seeks to aid the labor market’s recovery. If that happened, the central bank would have to tighten policy more abruptly than economists and market participants currently anticipate, dealing a potential blow to the economy and fueling market volatility.”

DESPITE ECONOMIC RECOVERY, ECB KEEPS POLICIES STEADY — NYT’s Eshe Nelson: “Even as Europe’s economic outlook is rapidly improving, European Central Bank policymakers decided on Thursday to maintain their ‘very accommodative’ monetary stance. Governments are lifting lockdown restrictions and the vaccine rollout has sped up, which has led to a bounce in the services industry and ‘ongoing dynamism’ in manufacturing, Christine Lagarde, president of the central bank, told reporters at a news conference in Frankfurt.”

FED BLANACE SHEET TOPS $8T FOR FIRST TIME — Reuters’ Kate Duguid: “The Federal Reserve's balance sheet topped $8 trillion for the first time, weekly data published on Thursday by the U.S. central bank on its holdings showed.

"The report also showed the Fed appears to have sold around $160 million of its corporate debt holdings since Monday, following the announcement it would unwind its nearly $14 billion corporate credit portfolio. As a first step, the central bank began selling its stakes in 16 bond exchange-traded funds on Monday.”

MANY AMERICANS MOVED TO CHEAPER HOUSING MARKETS LAST YEAR — AP’s Alex Veiga: “Many Americans who moved last year relocated to areas where homes were, on average, bigger and less expensive. On average, people who moved to a different city in 2020 ended up in a ZIP code where average home values were nearly $27,000 lower than in their previous ZIP code, according to Zillow.”

GOLDMAN TO REQUIRE EMPLOYEES TO REPORT VACCINATION STATUS — NYT’s Lauren Hirsch: “Goldman Sachs wants to know how many of its employees have gotten a Covid-19 shot. The bank sent a memo this week informing employees in the United States that they had until noon on Thursday to report their vaccination status

TRANSITIONS — BGR Group has named Andy Lewin co-head of its financial services practice. Lewin joins former GOP Rep. Sean Duffy in this role.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.

 
 
 

Follow us on Twitter

Mark McQuillian @mcqdc

Ben White @morningmoneyben

Aubree Eliza Weaver @aubreeeweaver

Victoria Guida @vtg2

Katy O'Donnell @katyodonnell_

Zachary Warmbrodt @Zachary

Kellie Mejdrich @kelmej

 

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .

More emails from POLITICO's Morning Money