U.S. urging Ukraine to keep mum about upcoming Russian pipeline deal

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Tuesday Jul 20,2021 07:58 pm
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By Alexander Ward

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With Quint Forgey and help from Betsy Woodruff Swan, Andrew Desiderio, Lara Seligman, and Nahal Toosi

Welcome to the second edition of National Security Daily , POLITICO’s newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I’m Alex Ward, a national security reporter at POLITICO and your guide to who’s up, who’s down, and what’s happening inside the Pentagon, NSC, and D.C.’s foreign policy machine. National Security Daily will arrive in your inbox Monday through Friday by 4 pm; please subscribe here.

Tips, comments and hate mail at award@politico.com, @alexbward or likely at some bar in Washington. Make sure to follow @QuintForgey, too!

Nord Stream 2 continues to be a headache for the Biden administration. U.S. officials have quietly urged their Ukrainian counterparts to withhold criticism of a forthcoming deal with Germany involving the controversial gas pipeline from Russia, according to four people with knowledge of the conversations.

BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN, ANDREW DESIDERIO , and your host report that the U.S. is in tense negotiations with Ukraine, which feels slighted by a mooted deal between Berlin and Washington to allow the final stages of the pipeline to go forward.

The U.S. and Germany have spent years tussling over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the controversial pathway for Russian gas to flow into the heart of Europe. Nearly complete, the 764-mile-long pipeline under the Baltic Sea is seen in Berlin as key to its energy security and in Moscow as a way to expand influence in Europe while filling its coffers.

But in Washington, both Republicans and Democrats see it as a Russian power play America must stop. And Kyiv fears that a completed pipeline would be an economic body blow, minimizing its role as a transit nation for energy flowing from Russia into Europe.

That’s what makes the Biden administration’s actions here so jarring. They’re in fluid negotiations with Germany over letting Russia complete the pipeline and know Ukraine is pissed about it. And yet, they’re telling their counterparts in Kyiv to keep quiet about the ongoing talks, or else risk the strength of U.S.-Ukraine ties.

“The U.S. officials have indicated that criticizing the forthcoming agreement could damage the Washington-Kyiv bilateral relationship, those sources said,” we wrote. “The officials have also urged the Ukrainians not to discuss the U.S. and Germany’s plans with Congress.”

Experts we spoke with were critical of the administration’s actions. “It’s unbalanced and unfair that Russia gets a huge reward and Ukraine is flogged over criticism,” said ALINA POLYAKOVA , president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C. “It’s 100 percent true that if Trump did this,” everyone would go nuts, she added.

A senior administration official told us the situation is more nuanced than we reported, but declined to share more details.

Read the full story here.

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The Inbox

POLITICO SCOOP — U.S. IN FINAL TALKS ON HOUSING AFGHAN SIVs IN QATAR AND KUWAIT: Our colleagues LARA SELIGMAN and Desiderio report that the U.S. might soon house Afghans seeking special immigrant visas at U.S. military bases in the two Middle Eastern countries . The deal isn’t done, but it’s “close,” an American official told them, while a congressional source called the arrangements “basically done deals.”

The administration is also looking at American bases elsewhere in the Middle East, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, including Uzbekistan. Yesterday, the U.S. announced 700 SIVs and their families would be temporarily housed at Fort Lee, Va., before being resettled.

BARRACK BUSTED: THOMAS BARRACK, formerly an adviser to then-President DONALD TRUMP and the chair of his inaugural committee, was one of three defendants charged by the DOJ as agents acting on behalf of the interest of the United Arab Emirates . Per the just-released DOJ statement, "the defendants used Barrack’s status as a senior outside advisor to the campaign and, subsequently, to senior U.S. government officials, to advance the interests of and provide intelligence to the UAE while simultaneously failing to notify the Attorney General that their actions were taken at the direction of senior UAE officials.

Acting Assistant Attorney General MARK LESKO said “[t]he conduct alleged in the indictment is nothing short of a betrayal of those officials in the United States, including the former President."

FIGHT OVER CHINA SANCTIONS: On Monday, President JOE BIDEN told reporters he didn’t sanction China over cyberattacks and hacking because “they’re still determining exactly what happened. The investigation is not finished.”

The decision to leave Beijing unpunished has been met with mixed emotions. “I think it’s strategic on their part,” a senior Democratic congressional aide told NatSec Daily on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject.

“The first goal was to get lots of allies on the record criticizing China ,” this person said, adding: “Once that’s accomplished, it will be easier and more effective to seek multilateral sanctions. If they sanctioned at the front end, some of our allies would likely have balked at joining” in on the statement.

But critics argue the lack of punitive measures has let Beijing off the hook — at least for now.

CNN reported that there were internal administration divisions over how to respond to China, with an official saying that while sanctions were on the table, it’s far more complicated to hurt China than Russia because of the potential blowback on the U.S. economy. “The economic reality is that we are far more entangled with China than we are with Russia, and we have far less room to countenance sanctions,” the official told CNN.

"If our goal is to discourage future bad behavior, we have to hold China accountable for this event, and that means imposing costs through economic, law enforcement, or cyber actions," MARK MONTGOMERY, a cybersecurity expert at the Foundations for the Defense of Democracies, told NatSec Daily.

SUSPECTED INFO-SHARING BETWEEN NSO AND ISRAEL: The Washington Post's SHANE HARRIS and SOUAD MEKHENNET report that NSO, the Israeli firm whose Pegasus spyware was found on the smartphones of journalists and human rights advocates, almost surely has ties to Israeli intelligence.

“In interviews, several current and former officials said they presumed that the company, which was founded by former Israeli intelligence officers, provides at least some information to the government in Jerusalem about who is using its spying products and what information they’re collecting.”

A senior congressional aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity about this sensitive subject, pushed back a bit on how the Post framed the story. “It would be more accurate to surmise that Israeli intelligence is a paying client of NSO, rather than an assumption that NSO is doing something somehow untoward,” they told NatSec Daily.

NatSec Daily asked retired Air Force Lt. Gen. JAMES CLAPPER , the former director of national intelligence, if it rang true to him that NSO likely shared information with the Israeli government, and if it was possible that Israel was NSO’s client.

His response? “Yes and yes.”

WELCOME TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY. Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO’s newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage is made. Please share this subscription link with a colleague or friend. Tips welcome anytime at award@politico.com, and follow me at @alexbward on Twitter.

IF YOU’RE MISSING MORNING DEFENSE, DON’T WORRY — WE’RE STILL HERE: Morning D is now turbo-charged and better than ever, coming at Pro s bright and early every a.m. Get more intel and sign up here. With industry scoops, breaking Pentagon news, and new reporters covering acquisitions and influence, you can’t afford to miss it.

Blowing Up

HAVANA SYNDROME GOES GLOBAL: As many as 200 Americans have reported possible symptoms of directed energy attacks — with a recent incident in Berlin cutting short at least one diplomat’s term in Germany, per KEN DILANIAN, JOSH LEDERMAN and COURTNEY KUBE of NBC News.

There are now potential cases of so-called Havana Syndrome on every continent except Antarctica, officials said. Almost half of those involve CIA officers or their relatives, roughly 60 involve Pentagon employees or relatives, and roughly 50 were linked to officials at the State Department.

IRAN-ISRAEL NAVAL WAR LOOPS IN LEBANON: Tit-for-tat attacks in the Mediterranean between Iran and Israel have mostly focused on Iranian oil tankers en route to oil-starved Syria. But Foreign Policy’s ANCHAL VOHRA reports that the fight now seems to be ensnaring Lebanon, a country nearing economic collapse.

Although a confusing Twitter spat a few weeks ago ultimately didn’t escalate the conflict, Israel’s strategy to target the Iranian tankers is still very much active — and Iran’s determination to respond by attacking Israel’s commercial vessels or those of U.S. allies in the Gulf hasn’t weakened, either.

The growing consensus among experts is that Israeli Prime Minister NAFTALI BENNETT must take only calculated risks at sea while continuing with land, air and cybersecurity sabotage of Iran’s nuclear apparatus. It’s unclear, though, whether Israel's new leader will heed that advice.

 

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Keystrokes

TSA GETS EVEN TOUGHER ON CYBER: The Transportation Security Administration issued another pipeline cybersecurity directive today in the aftermath of the ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline in May, our own ERIC GELLER reports for Pros.

This latest regulation requires pipeline operators to “implement specific mitigation measures … develop and implement a cybersecurity contingency and recovery plan, and conduct a cybersecurity architecture design review.”

It’s the first time the federal government has required pipeline operators to enact certain cybersecurity protections. The TSA has already ordered companies that operate pipelines to alert the government whenever they suffer cyberattacks.

The Complex

EXPANDING THE FLEET: The Navy and Marine Corps are in the market for roughly 30 light amphibious warships, a new ship class crewed by fewer than 40 sailors or Marines.

In a recent solicitation , the Navy said it was looking for contractors to build simulators of the warships to begin training Marines in beaching operations — an indication the service is pushing forward with the plan. But don’t expect the new vessels to come anytime soon. The solicitation says the Navy expects the delivery of the first ship in 2026, a far cry from its initial goal of 2022.

PENTAGON’S SPACE RULES: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN signed off on an unclassified, formal memo this month requiring the Defense Department to abide by a framework of established norms for military activities in outer space, per THERESA HITCHENS of Breaking Defense.

The memo lists five tenets for space operations: “due regard” for other space powers; limiting space debris; avoiding interfering with others’ assets; maintaining “safe separation and safe trajectory” of satellites and spacecraft; and notifying others of activities to ensure “safety and stability of the domain.”

On the Hill

CONGRESS MOVES TO RECLAIM FOREIGN POLICY: The three amigos of Congressional war powers — Sens. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), and MIKE LEE (R-Utah) — today introduced the “ National Security Powers Act.” Per Desiderio, the just-introduced measure “would make it easier for lawmakers to outright reverse the president’s foreign-policy decisions — potentially even in real-time — including on war authorizations, weapons sales and emergency declarations.”

Here’s how: “The National Security Powers Act repeals all existing war authorizations and would automatically cut off funding for military operations that do not have explicit approval of Congress. It would also require those authorizations to include a specific end date in order to protect against open-ended military conflicts. Perhaps most notably, it repeals the War Powers Act, the 1973 law that presidents have long flouted to evade congressional approval.”

Desiderio also attended a Tuesday afternoon press conference with the lawmakers, who used the opportunity to expand on why they put the bill forward now. He sent NatSec Daily this quote from Murphy on the prospects of the bill.

“Presidents are never eager to give away their national-security powers, so we understand that any legislation that transfers or changes the existing status quo on national security is going to be an uphill climb when it comes to getting a presidential signature,” said the Connecticut senator. “Our hope is that this bill, as comprehensive and sweeping as it is, will stimulate a conversation in Congress that might give us more inspiration to use the powers that we currently have to make sure that we are properly declaring war.”

The bill already has the support of certain interest groups, including the right-leaning, anti-war Concerned Veterans for America and humanitarian groups like Oxfam America.

Senate staffers said they’d been working on releasing this bill since December 2019, and that the three lawmakers’ offices got significant help from the Open Society Foundation and other organizations. They finally got the bill out there after “lots of long and hard work,” one of the aides told NatSec Daily.

JENKINS THROUGH, CRUZ BLUE: Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) apparently lifted his hold on the nomination of Amb. BONNIE JENKINS to be the State Department’s top arms control official. He initially blocked her and others’ pathways to confirmation until the Biden administration imposed congressionally mandated sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Multiple people told NatSec Daily that a vote to confirm Jenkins should be expected Wednesday or Thursday. That’s not a moment too soon, as the U.S. and Russia will engage in high-stakes nuclear arms control talks next week.

Broadsides

END SUPPORT TO EGYPT: CHARLES DUNNE, a former U.S. diplomat in Cairo and fellow at the Arab Center Washington, wrote a Foreign Policy op-ed calling on the Biden administration not to issue a security waiver and block $300 million in military support over the country’s abuse of human rights.

“The U.S. interest in regional stability does not require Washington to ignore human rights; it demands that the White House take the issue seriously enough to press for real improvements. Egypt’s record of repression and Cairo’s centrality to U.S. policy in the Middle East makes it an ideal place to begin,” Dunne wrote.

Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee who's written letters about this issue, agrees with Dunne's general idea. "If they waive the restrictions, it will be, by definition, a blank check," he told NatSec Daily. "It would be hard for me to discern any difference between the two administrations’ policies, other than the rhetoric."

Recall this wild NAHAL TOOSI story from last week: Egypt’s spy chief claimed in June that the U.S. “had promised back in 2015 that if Egypt released American activist Mohamed Soltan he would serve out the rest of his life sentence in a U.S. prison.”

Transitions

NEW ARMY ALASKA COMMAND CHIEF: Maj. Gen. BRIAN EIFLER took over Army Alaska Command today after serving as the Army’s chief legislative liaison in DC. Per Army Times: “Prior to that, he served as the deputy commanding general of the 10th Mountain Division. Eifler commissioned as an infantry officer after graduating from Central Michigan University. He later held leadership roles in the 75th Ranger Regiment at Fort Benning, Georgia, and commanded a brigade from the 25th Infantry Division at Schofield Barracks, Hawaii.”

What to Read

The New Yorker:Afghanistan’s Only All-Girls Boarding School Fears the Return of the Taliban

SEN. CHRIS MURPHY, War on the Rocks:National Security is Stronger When Congress is Involved. Here’s How We Get Back to the Table.”

New York Times:To China, Trump Was Bad. Biden Seems Even Worse.”

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Tomorrow Today

House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Subcommittee on Middle East, North Africa and Global Counterterrorism Hearing: “People to People: Examining Grassroots Peacebuilding Efforts Between Israelis and Palestinians

Senate Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: Subcommittee on Defense Hearing: “Navy and Air Force Weapons Systems Divestments

Senate Armed Services Committee, 10:30 a.m.: Full Committee Hearing: “Markup of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022

Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 11:15 a.m.: Full Committee Hearing: “U.S. Policy on Turkey

Government Executive, 12 p.m.:Intelligence at the Edge: Technologies for Mission Success

Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2 p.m.: Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy Hearing: “Combatting Climate Change in East Asia and the Pacific

House Armed Services Committee, 3 p.m.: Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations Hearing: “ Review of the Fiscal Year 2022 Budget Request for U.S. Special Operations Forces and Command

The Wilson Center, 3 p.m.: The Science and Technology Innovation Program and The Kennan Institute: “Ransomware Everywhere: Advancing Responsible State Behavior in Cyberspace

The Atlantic Council, 3:30 p.m.:Modern mobilization: Defense-industrial preparedness for great-power conflict

 

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