Taliban on Afghan provincial capital capture: 'We have to take it'

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Aug 06,2021 07:57 pm
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By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

Presented by

Lockheed Martin

With help from Nahal Toosi

Welcome to National Security Daily , POLITICO’s newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I’m Alex Ward, your guide to what’s happening inside the Pentagon, the NSC and D.C.’s foreign policy machine — and a deeply-saddened-by-the-Lionel-Messi-news FC Barcelona fan. National Security Daily arrives in your inbox Monday through Friday by 4 p.m.; subscribe here.

Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com. Also hang out with us on Twitter @alexbward and @QuintForgey!

The first provincial capital has fallen to the Taliban since President JOE BIDEN ’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan — the latest indication the militants are on a glidepath to overall control of the war-torn country.

The Taliban now controls Zaranj, the capital city of Nimruz province in southwest Afghanistan. Because of the city’s strategic location on the border with Iran, experts say the Taliban just secured a logistical advantage and a likely cash windfall.

It doesn’t appear that Kabul-aligned forces put up much of a fight, making it relatively easy for the Taliban to take Zaranj. The militants even allowed Afghan authorities to flee into Iran with their families.

The Taliban for months has said its main goal is to seek a peacefully negotiated solution with Kabul and its allies, and that it only launches assaults when provoked by government-aligned forces. But Taliban spokesperson SUHAIL SHAHEEN provided NatSec Daily with a different rationale for why the insurgents decided to take Zaranj.

“We have to take it, return law and order,” he said, even though the Taliban is known for its brutal and repressive rule. “How can we [be] expected to just watch the city [as it’s] facing a chaotic situation?” When we pressed Shaheen on why he’d given us a different reason for the military advance in the past, he responded: “True, different situations needed different responses.”

The State Department sees it differently. "The continued Taliban offensive does nothing but lead to more bloodshed," a State Department spokesperson told NatSec Daily. "The Taliban advances, targeted killings, and horrific acts of violence are alienating Afghanistan’s neighbors, countries in the region, and the international community," adding "it would be a grave mistake for the Taliban to expect even the minimal international support that they received over 20 years ago."

"If the Taliban do not turn away from the continued violence, if they do not engage seriously and urgently in peace negotiations, and come to an agreement that will bring desperately needed peace to the people of Afghanistan, they can never achieve the domestic and international legitimacy they claim to seek," the spokesperson concluded.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ BILL ROGGIO , who closely tracks the Taliban’s sweep across Afghanistan, called the Zaranj capture a “major victory for the group.” He assesses that the Taliban has now taken control of 219 of the country’s 407 districts, while contesting another 110.

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The situation is increasingly grim.

Taliban spokesperson ZABIHULLAH MUJAHID told TAMEEM AKHGAR and KATHY GANNON of The Associated Press that the group shot and killed DAWA KHAN MENAPAL, the director of Afghanistan’s Government Information Media Center. ROSS WILSON, the chargé d'affaires at the U.S. embassy in Afghanistan, tweeted that American officials were “saddened & disgusted by the Taliban’s targeted killing” of Menapal — calling him “a friend and colleague, whose career was focused on providing truthful information to all Afghans about #Afghanistan.”

The Afghan official’s death comes after a Taliban bombing attack Tuesday — intended to assassinate acting Defense Minister BISMILLAH KHAN MOHAMMADI — killed at least eight people and wounded 20 in Kabul.

It’s all gotten so bad that once optimistic U.S. officials, namely special envoy for Afghanistan ZALMAY KHALILZAD , are now dismissing the prospects of a peaceful resolution to the conflict. “They are far apart,” he said Tuesday at a virtual event hosted by the Aspen Security Forum. “The situation is very concerning,” he added, calling on Kabul to get its “military bearings.”

On Friday afternoon, White House Press Secretary JEN PSAKI condemned the killing of Menapal, acknowledged the assassination attempt in Kabul, and said U.S. officials were “closely tracking and concerned about” reports of “atrocities and retaliation against civilians” in Taliban-controlled areas.

But pressed on whether the Taliban’s recent actions had prompted any second-guessing within the administration, Psaki gave no indication of a potential change to Biden’s pullout order: “Our view is that if the Taliban claim to want international legitimacy, these actions are not going to get them the legitimacy they seek. They do not have to stay on this trajectory. They can choose to devote the same energy to the peace process as they are to their military campaign. We strongly urge them to do so.”

Those remarks from Psaki echo a similar line Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and other U.S. officials have been pushing amid the withdrawal. But as NatSec Daily previously noted last week, it remains unclear whether the Taliban’s appetite for international recognition really outranks its ambition to place Afghanistan under strict Islamic law.

The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — MEET THE FREE BELARUS CAUCUS: Sens. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) will announce Friday the formation of the Free Belarus Caucus to advocate democracy in the country rocked by political violence. Ever since Belarus’ disputed election last August, autocratic President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO has continued to claim victory and forcibly repress a growing movement that seeks to oust him. Most recently, a prominent anti-regime activist in Ukraine was found dead, and a Belarusian Olympian critical of Lukashenko found refuge in Poland.

The two co-chairs, along with three Republicans and four Democrats in the caucus, hope that sustained pressure from the Senate can help the people of Belarus. They’ll begin by introducing a bipartisan resolution on Monday — the one-year anniversary of the questionable vote — calling for free and fair elections in the country, showing support for the pro-democracy movement, and blasting Lukashenko’s actions.

“We want him to know that we’re not done watching,” Shaheen told NatSec Daily in an interview. “We’re watching him, and we’re watching VLADIMIR PUTIN,” who has supported Lukahshenko’s regime ever since the election. Shaheen added that she met with Belarus’s opposition leader, SVETLANA TIKHANOVSKAYA, who backs the caucus formation. And Shaheen opened the door to more lawmakers joining the nascent grouping. “There’s a lot of interest,” she said.

ALSO FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — 'GIFTGATE' KEEPS ON GIVING: It wasn’t just the whiskey. At least 20 types of items (meaning dozens, possibly hundreds of individual pieces) vanished from the State Department’s gift vault as the Trump administration gave way to the Biden presidency, two U.S. officials familiar with the issue tell our own NAHAL TOOSI.

The State Department inspector general is investigating what happened to the gifts — including, infamously, a $5,800 bottle of Japanese whiskey. The IG’s office declined to comment.

While the whiskey was a gift from Japan’s government, most of the missing items are gifts the U.S. was intending to give other countries. Many bore Donald Trump’s insignia, the U.S. officials said.

'WHOSE SIDE ARE YOU ON, MR. PRESIDENT?': A high-powered bipartisan group of Senators introduced legislation Thursday that would require the declassification of 9/11 intelligence “concerning foreign support” for the attacks. It came after a yearslong effort by 1,800 family members of 9/11 victims to find out if Saudi Arabia provided material help to the attackers.

With Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), and top Republicans like Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) as signatories, chances are high that the measure will pass the upper chamber. And with Saudi-skeptical Democrats leading the House, the legislation will probably reach the Resolute Desk.

If it does, the victims’ families will urge him to turn the bill into law. “We expect President Biden will do the right thing at the end of the day. The president needs to step up and side with the families over the interests of Saudi Arabia,” BRETT EAGLESON, who was a teenager when his father was killed on 9/11, told NatSec Daily. Although Biden declassified intelligence pertaining to Riyadh’s role in JAMAL KHASHOGGI ’s murder, he “didn't go and declassify the reports about the murder of 3,000 Americans 20 years ago,” said Eagleson.

Eagleson said the president is still welcome at 9/11 memorial ceremonies marking the 20th anniversary of the attack next month — clarifying his earlier comments to NBC News — but that Biden shouldn’t expect a warm reception. “We are not in a position to welcome him and thank him while he utters these hollow words of ‘never forget’ — but behind closed doors, he’s thwarting our efforts, and he’s stabbing us in the back,” Eagleson said. “It’s them or us. Whose side are you on, Mr. President?”

A White House spokesperson told NatSec Daily that Biden, during the 2020 campaign, “made a commitment to 9/11 families to ask the Department of Justice to work constructively on resolving issues relating to the previous administration’s invocation of the state secrets privilege,” adding: “We look forward to having more to share in the coming days about actions we are taking to ensure greater transparency under the law.”

DJI RESPONDS: Yesterday, we reported that two senators filed an amendment to block infrastructure bill grant money from going toward the purchase of Chinese-made drones, fearing the information they’d gather could reach Chinese spies. Alex requested comment from DJI, one of China’s biggest drone manufacturers, and reported that he never heard back. Turns out DJI’s spokesperson ADAM LISBERG did send a response, but it ended up in a spam folder.

So in fairness to DJI, here’s the main piece of Lisberg’s statement: The amendment “seems to be premised on a fundamental misunderstanding of how DJI drones work. When DJI customers use our products, they are the only ones who control whether they share their photos, videos or flight logs with anyone else. Unless our customers affirmatively decide to share them, there is no way for anyone else — including DJI — to access the information they generate.”

Read Alex’s full story here.

IT’S FRIDAY, so let’s try something a little fun. At the end of every long, hard week, we’re going to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene likes to unwind with a drink. Today, State Department spokesperson NED PRICE graciously offered up his favorite watering hole: He said you can usually find him at Dacha Beer Garden in D.C.’s Shaw neighborhood with a Kölsch-style beer. However, asked again, Price flip-flopped and said his current go-to is the Tequilajazz, which he describes “a sweet and spicy tequila drink.”

Ladies and gentlemen, we got him — only hard news here at NatSec Daily. Surely Price now needs another Tequilajazz after dealing with us dogged reporters.

Want to share your favorite happy hour spot or late night boozer? Drop us a line at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com. (For full transparency, Alex enjoys Moscow mules and can usually be found at Wonderland Ballroom or American Ice Company; Quint will be swilling dirty martinis or Negronis at Beuchert’s Saloon.)

Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO’s newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage is made. Please share this subscription link with a colleague or friend. Follow the whole team here: @alexbward, @QuintForgey, @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.

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Blowing Up

YUP, IT WAS IRAN: CENTCOM has officially concluded that Iran was behind the drone attack that struck the Mercer Street vessel last week. Among other pieces of evidence, the statement notes that “[t]he distance from the Iranian coast to the locations of the attacks was within the range of documented Iranian one-way attack UAVs,” and that evidence recovered showed “this UAV was produced in Iran.”

NatSec Daily has heard rumblings of the administration planning a broad punishment for Iran in concert with allies and partners. While we’re mainly gleaning that it’ll be some sort of sanctions package, there’s nothing definitive yet.

For now, the foreign ministers of the G7 released this statement Friday: “Iran’s behaviour, alongside its support to proxy forces and non-state armed actors, threatens international peace and security. We call on Iran to stop all activities inconsistent with relevant UN Security Council resolutions, and call on all parties to play a constructive role in fostering regional stability and peace.”

LATEST ON LEBANON-ISRAEL CONFLICT: Tit-for-tat attacks in Israel and Lebanon have entered their third day, with Hezbollah militants launching rockets into northern Israeli territory, per Reuters’ RAMI AYYUB and TOM PERRY. The Iranian-backed group said it intentionally targeted open areas near the two countries’ shared border.

Israel answered the rocket attack with retaliatory fire into southern Lebanese territory, but an Israeli military spokesperson acknowledged the trajectory of Hezbollah’s missiles seemed intended “not to escalate the situation.”

Meanwhile, video circulating on social media — highlighted by NBC News’ RAF SANCHEZ and others — appeared to show Druze villagers in southern Lebanon blocking a Hezbollah convoy of rocket launchers. The most recent sustained conflict between Israel and Hezbollah was a monthlong war in 2006.

 

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Keystrokes

MOSCOW’S QUEST FOR AN ISOLATED INTERNET: JUSTIN SHERMAN writes in C4ISRNET that the United States and its NATO allies need to start paying more attention to one of Putin’s key cyber ambitions — a walled-off domestic internet.

Although the nascent effort by Moscow “has already run into hurdles” since the signing of a so-called domestic internet law in 2019, “[f]urther internet isolation could increase the Kremlin’s feelings of insulation from foreign cyber threats, prompting more assertive, overseas-focused operations in response.”

Of course, even an isolated Russian internet won’t be walled-off to hackers and spies. This basically boils down to a “free speech” issue of sorts for Russians.

A Russian newspaper reported two weeks ago that the country had successfully disconnected itself from the global internet during a series of tests in June and July, per Reuters. But JOSEPHINE WOLFF wrote in Slate that those claims were inaccurate, and it remains “completely unclear” what Moscow actually accomplished.

The Complex

ELECTROMAGNETIC SUPERIORITY: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN has rubber-stamped the implementation plan for the Pentagon’s 2020 Electromagnetic Spectrum Superiority Strategy, per BRAD D. WILLIAMS of Breaking Defense .

“Future challenges require us to fight and win in the EMS from the beginning, and commanders must plan to win the EMS in their area of responsibility,” said Gen. JOHN HYTEN, vice chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the pointman on the new strategy’s implementation. “The Strategy’s I-Plan sets us on a path to dominate the future battle space. We are determined to get there and achieve spectrum superiority in all domains.”

The five overarching goals of the strategy, rolled out last October, include: “Develop Superior EMS Capabilities;” “Evolve to an Agile, Fully Integrated EMS Infrastructure;” “Pursue Total Force EMS Readiness;” “Secure Enduring Partnerships for EMS Advantage;” and “Establish Effective EMS Governance.”

Relatedly, our own LEE HUDSON reports that the Pentagon has established a new office — called the Joint Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations Center — that will be charged with providing electromagnetic spectrum operations expertise for the military. The office will be based at U.S. Strategic Command in Nebraska and led by a two-star general.

On the Hill

AUMF VOTE TO PASS: A Senate GOP aide tells NatSec Daily that 10 Republicans signed on to the bill to repeal the 1991 and 2002 AUMFs, all but ensuring the end of those laws in the next few months. A concerted effort to educate GOP lawmakers on the need to remove the measures panned out, the staffer said — helped by the bill getting approved by the SFRC this week . “Momentum is always helpful, for sure.” (The Wall Street Journal first reported this news.)

Now that the legislation led by Sens. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) and TIM KAINE (D-Va.) will clear the 60-vote threshold, the question is how to line it up for a vote. The bill could get its own floor time, but the GOP aide said that might be tough with so much going on. The more likely possibility is the measure will tack on to the NDAA when that’s voted on in October.

DECISION COMING ON EGYPT AID: NatSec Daily has detailed the brewing fight over whether or not to withhold $300 million in military aid to Egypt due to that country’s human rights abuses. Now, two people familiar with the situation tell us a decision from the State Department will likely be made in the next week or two.

“There’s a growing number [at State] rallying behind not using the waiver,” one of the people said, which means Egypt wouldn’t get the tranche of cash. If that’s what happens, it’d be a pretty big deal, signaling a whole new relationship between Washington and Cairo.

Broadsides

PUSHBACK ON MILITARY VACCINE MANDATE: The Pentagon may soon announce that all U.S. troops must be vaccinated in order to serve, but 15 House Republicans don’t like that potential plan one bit.

“The law of the United States is clear. Mandatory vaccination is illegal for military personnel prior to complete approval,” they wrote in a letter Friday to Secretary Austin. “Servicemembers who do not wish to receive the vaccine cannot be required until the approval process is completed. Any action to require it is illegal. The Secretary of Defense is not above the law. The courts concurred.”

Leading the charge is Rep. MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.), a West Point graduate, combat veteran and ER physician. Per a news release, though, he does believe the vaccines “to be safe and effective.” His main concern is a legal one, not a medical one.

Transitions

NEW ISRAELI AMBASSADOR: Israel’s embassy in the U.S. announced that reserve Brig. Gen. MIKE HERZOG was tapped to be the new Israeli ambassador to America. Per the news release, Herzog served for 40 years in the IDF “in a series of senior positions including head of strategic planning at the planning directorate and military secretary and chief of staff to the defense minister under four defense ministers.” He will serve throughout Prime Minister NAFTALI BENNETT’s time in charge and also when Foreign Minister YAIR LAPID takes over.

NATO NOMINATION: Per the Pentagon, Biden has tapped Air Force Maj. Gen. DAVID J. JULAZADEH for appointment to the rank of lieutenant general and assignment as deputy chief of staff for capability development, Supreme Allied Command Transformation, Norfolk, Virginia.

What to Read

The Economist:Turkey’s deadly fires raise the heat for Erdogan

Foreign Policy:Taliban Rampage Puts Afghan Journalists in Crosshairs

The Intercept:Pentagon Wrongly Admitted Killing 21 Civilians in Iraq and Syria

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Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

 

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