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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Taliban fighters stand guard in front of the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan on Aug. 16, 2021. | Rahmat Gul/AP Photo | With help from Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman Welcome to National Security Daily, POLITICO’s newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I’m Alex Ward, your guide to what’s happening inside the Pentagon, the NSC and D.C.’s foreign policy machine. National Security Daily arrives in your inbox Monday through Friday around 4 p.m.; subscribe here. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com. Follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. President JOE BIDEN or any one of his last three predecessors. The Taliban. The Afghan government. Pakistan’s military. The U.S. intelligence community. The Pentagon and its Panglossian generals. Experts pushing American leaders to stay the course. Those are just some of the answers NatSec Daily received when we asked U.S. officials, lawmakers and experts a deceptively complicated question: Who exactly is to blame for the swift collapse of the Western-backed Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power after 20 years of war? What we’ve found is there’s no single individual, organization or government drawing Washington’s ire. Instead, anyone who contributed to the U.S.-led debacle in Afghanistan and America’s botched withdrawal bears some responsibility. Just look at the unanimity of the responses: — A White House official: “My honest answer: 20 years of blame to go around. Take your pick.” — A State Department official: “You have a thousand mothers and fathers of the failure that kept us thinking that we were always turning the corner.” — Sen. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.), a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee: “For a decade now, demagogues have lied to the American people about our mission in Afghanistan — as if our only choices were immediate withdrawal or so-called endless wars. Politicians haven’t told the truth about how a small American force provides the backbone for intelligence and special forces’ work to decapitate terror networks.” — A senior House Democrat, who declined to go on the record: There were “20 years of denying reality until it slapped everyone in the face.” — Retired Lt. Gen. DANIEL BOLGER , who commanded troops in Afghanistan: “There's more than enough blame to go around. All four presidential administrations (Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden) and the Congresses of 2001-2021 own a share. Generals and admirals — and I include myself — senior diplomats, and top intelligence leaders got it wrong over and over from start to finish. … Finally, the American people got it wrong. Our government, elected and appointed, works for us. We wanted a response to 9/11. We got that. Then we lost interest. The Taliban did not.” There’s a reason for this consensus: A tacit acknowledgment that officials and national security professionals need a hard look in the mirror. That includes presidents who launched and prolonged an ill-fated war; the generals who assured us success was always six months away; the civilians who believed diplomacy and development would transform Afghan society; the intelligence analysts who missed the Taliban’s true strength; the lawmakers who abdicated their oversight responsibility; the expert class who cheered on further bloodshed; the activists who minimized the consequences of withdrawal; and we in the media for keeping Afghanistan off the front page and prioritizing trivia over troops fighting and dying in battle zones. Of course, the Taliban’s actions are theirs alone. The militants didn’t have to take the country by force — they chose to do that. And, as Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN noted to lawmakers Sunday, no amount of billions spent can convince someone to fight for their country. “You can’t buy willpower,” he said. But the United States also chose to go to Afghanistan and stay there for two decades, backed by a foreign policy establishment that would never reward the U.S. leaving an unwinnable war. There is no single culpable party, then. We all played a part — and that may be the most damning conclusion of all. | | | | | | SUPPORT FOR WITHDRAWAL PLUMMETS: A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows support for Biden's decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan is falling rapidly, with nearly half of Americans saying the withdrawal should probably stop if the Taliban regain control of the country. Now, 49 percent of registered voters support the withdrawal, down from 69 percent in April. While Republican support fell from 52 percent to 38 percent, Democratic support also dropped from 84 percent to 69 percent. Still, just 37 percent of voters said they disapprove of the withdrawal. Now only a quarter of voters believe the withdrawal is going well, with 45 percent adding they believe the U.S. should probably not or definitely not withdraw if the Taliban regains control of most of Afghanistan. The poll was conducted Friday-Monday, as conditions on the ground were changing rapidly. DOD CONTENDS WITH TALIBAN TAKEOVER FALLOUT: Our own LARA SELIGMAN, with a small assist from Alex, reported on how the military failed to predict the speed of the Taliban’s sweep across Afghanistan. “Though officials warned repeatedly over the past few weeks that the Afghan government could fall far sooner than previous estimates — weeks or months after the last American troops depart the country — they overestimated the capability and will of the Afghan security forces to fight back as the Taliban seized city after city in recent days,” defense officials told Seligman. “In fact, DoD officials briefed lawmakers last month on the intelligence assessment that the combination of Afghan special commandos, air force and local militias could hold off the Taliban long enough for a political settlement, according to a senior Democratic aide with knowledge of the briefings.” National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN admitted today that even Biden miscalculated. “The president didn't think it was inevitable the Taliban would take control. He thought the Afghan forces could fight,” he said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.” “We spent 20 years, tens of billions of dollars training them, giving them equipment, giving them support of U.S. forces for 20 years. When push came to shove, they decided to not fight for their country.” “STILL HERE AT THE EMBASSY”: Afghanistan’s embassy in Washington is still operational, even if the Taliban threw out the government that sent Amb. ADELA RAZ here. “We are still all taking orders and direction from her,” an embassy staffer told NatSec Daily. ”The embassy is open and we are still here at the embassy.” Right now, the mission has turned into more of an ops center with the main goal of helping to evacuate Afghans who don’t want to live under Taliban control, this person told us. SHAD SARGAND, a former volunteer infrastructure adviser to exiled Afghan President ASHRAF GHANI, told our own DANIEL LIPPMAN he expects Afghan nationals who work for the embassy in Washington would "most likely" apply for asylum in the U.S. "I hate to say this, but this is an opportunity for them if they want to stay in the U.S., so this is something that is a good opportunity for them," he added. "But as far as working for the Taliban, I don't think there's anybody in the right state of mind for the current situation to work [for them] because it's just bad. It's really bad." "The people who work here for the embassy in Washington have two choices. One is a personal one, whether they want to work for a government or not," noted OMAR SAMAD, a former Afghan ambassador to France and Canada and a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council. "Second has to do with whether the embassy in Washington stays open and who runs it and whose authority does it run under as a diplomatic mission. That will depend on what happens in Kabul and whether the U.S. will recognize [it]." Two Afghans seeking consular services were at the Afghan consulate in Glover Park this afternoon, one looking for a passport for his son, but there was little outward sense of the unfolding crisis in the country. One consulate employee, speaking on condition of anonymity, said “we are mentally not okay” and “are very, very sad about what happened.” Pointing to the Afghan flag in the small lobby of the consulate, the employee said that he would continue working for the consulate “as long as this is our flag.” Outside the Afghan embassy in D.C.’s upscale Kalorama neighborhood, it was similarly quiet with only birds occasionally chirping, but lights were on in the embassy. | 
The Afghan Embassy stands the northwest section of Washington, D.C. on Aug. 16, 2021. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | HAITI’S DEATH TOLL NEARS 1,300: Haiti’s 7.2-magnitude earthquake on Saturday has now killed 1,297 people , per Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency, throwing the Caribbean nation into further turmoil. Thousands who saw their homes destroyed filled still-functioning hospitals, though medical staff is struggling to attend to the wounded. "We do have a serious issue," Jerry Chandler, the head of Haiti's Civil Protection Agency, told Reuters. "There are very important facilities that are dysfunctional as we speak and those that are functional are receiving an overflow of patients." This is yet another setback for Haiti, which is still recovering from another earthquake 11 years ago and the recent assassination of the country’s president. USAID sent a Disaster Response Team to Haiti to assist with the response. But retired Lt. Gen. KEN KEEN, who led the U.S. military response to Haiti’s 2010 earthquake, told NatSec Daily the Biden administration could be doing much more. “Logistical support is the key capability that the U.S. could provide, particularly in the form of airlift (helo) and logistical assets to assist [and] support the government and non-government organizations that are on the ground in the affected area,” he said. “I know the [U.S. Coast Guard] is already providing some helo support, so that is great, but I think more assets are needed.” “Working with the UN and Haitian government officials, the U.S. needs to develop a command and control structure that can help organize, coordinate, collaborate, and communicate with all the government, NGOs, and other nations that are sending or have organizations responding to help,” he continued. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO’s newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Please share this subscription link with a colleague or friend. Follow the whole team here: @alexbward, @QuintForgey, @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, and @JonnyCustodio. IF YOU’RE MISSING MORNING DEFENSE, DON’T WORRY — WE’RE STILL HERE: Coming at Pro s bright and early every a.m., if you’re not getting Morning D, you’re missing out. Learn more about our best-in-class insider reporters and sign up here. Don’t let your competition be the first to act on industry scoops, breaking Pentagon news, the latest aerospace developments, defense acquisitions and influence plays. And while you’re there, hit subscribe on our brand new Space Beat Memo, a week-ahead look at everything astropolitics. | | | KABUL AIRPORT IN CRISIS: It’s absolute mayhem at the Kabul international airport, where thousands are desperately trying to catch the next plane out of Afghanistan. “Videos circulating on social media showed hundreds of people running across the tarmac as U.S. troops fired warning shots in the air. One showed a crowd pushing and shoving its way up a staircase, trying to board a plane, with some people hanging off the railings,” the Associated Press reports . “In another video, hundreds of people could be seen running alongside a U.S. Air Force C-17 transport plane as it moved down a runway. Some clung to the side of the jet just before takeoff. Another video showed several falling through the air as the airplane rapidly gained altitude over the city.” At least seven people have died in the chaos, U.S. official said. Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said all American flights out of the airport had been suspended as troops worked to “reestablish security” and clear the tarmac, Quint reports. Kirby also confirmed that U.S. troops had been confronted with two separate security incidents amid the chaos on the airfield, resulting in the deaths of two armed individuals who were shooting at them — as well as the possible wounding of one American soldier. | | | | INTRODUCING OTTAWA PLAYBOOK : Join the growing community of Politicos — from lawmakers and leaders to pollsters, staffers, strategists and lobbyists — working to shape Canada’s future. Every day, our reporting team pulls back the curtain to shed light on what’s really driving the agenda on Parliament Hill, the true players who are shaping politics and policy across Canada, and the impact it all has on the world. Don’t miss out on your daily look inside Canadian politics and power. Subscribe to Ottawa Playbook today. | | | | | | | | 100 MILLION-PERSON DATA BREACH? T-Mobile is investigating a potential data breach that could include more than 100 million people’s sensitive information, including Social Security numbers and physical addresses. The alleged seller “is asking for 6 bitcoin, around $270,000, for a subset of the data containing 30 million social security numbers and driver licenses. The seller said they are privately selling the rest of the data at the moment,” Vice reported. | | | HII’S PLAY FOR UNMANNED SYSTEMS: Huntington Ingalls Industries, known for making the Navy’s aircraft carriers, is making a bold play in the unmanned-systems game. “The Navy’s intent over the last 10 years — but has become much [clearer] in the last three to five years — is in Distributed Maritime Operations,” DUANE FOTHERINGHAM, president of the company’s unmanned systems group, told Breaking Defense’s JUSTIN KATZ . “The precise numbers may vary but the intent is clear … The Navy will have unmanned [systems] being a significant part of its future fleet.” Katz reports the company is gambling a bit: “HII’s endeavors into unmanned are not just a bet against its industrial competitors. It’s a bet that the Navy can ultimately persuade Congress to fund its unmanned efforts at the pace and scale the Navy says it needs for the future fight.” | | | TOP SASC REPUBLICAN WANTS AFGHANISTAN HEARING: Sen. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.) wants top Pentagon officials in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee ASAP. “He’s been asking for a hearing with DoD officials of Afghanistan for months,” MARTA HERNANDEZ, the spokesperson for SASC Republicans, confirmed to NatSec Daily. She noted Inhofe is working with SASC Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) to get a session on the books, but it’s unclear when one will be scheduled. | | | BRITISH DEFENSE CHIEF PANS AFGHANISTAN PULLOUT: British Defense Secretary BEN WALLACE — who hasn’t shied away from criticism of Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal decision — blasted the American pullout again Monday in an emotional interview with LBC radio, lamenting that some Afghan allies would not be able to escape the war-torn country amid the Taliban’s takeover. “Some people won’t get back. Some people won’t get back,” Wallace said, his voice cracking. “And we will have to do our best in third countries to process those people.” Asked by LBC’s NICK FERRARI why he was affected “so personally” by the situation, Wallace appeared to reply, “because I’m a soldier,” and added: “Because it’s sad that the West has done what it’s done. We have to do our very best to get people out and stand by our obligations and 20 years of sacrifice.” Wallace, a former British Army captain, said in another interview Monday with Sky News that it was unlikely U.K. and NATO troops would return to Afghanistan: “That’s not on the cards that we’re going to go back.” | | | CHANGE AT ARMY SPEC OPS COMMAND: Lt. Gen. JONATHAN BRAGA and Command Sgt. Maj. MICHAEL WEIMER took over Army Special Operations command Monday. Leaving their posts are Lt. Gen. FRANCIS BEAUDETTE and Command Sgt. Major. MARC ECKARD. “There are new challenges ahead for this nation that will absolutely rely on this formation as it has the last two decades and actually has since the creation of our Army,” Braga said during the change of command ceremony . “The entirety of this formation will have a significant role to play in the ongoing competition of our adversaries, and we’ll be prepared to support the point force in high-end conflict if required.” U.S. Army Special Operations Command includes more than 27,000 soldiers. | | | POLITICO Magazine: “‘I Believed in the U.S. But That Turned Out to Be Such a Big Mistake’” The Atlantic: “ Biden’s Betrayal of Afghans Will Live in Infamy” The Nation: “Kabul Has Fallen. Now What?” | | | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.: “What’s Next for Cross-Strait Relations? Trends, Drivers, and Challenges” — The Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: “ Karun: The tragedy of Iran’s longest river” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: “Rethinking Homeland Defense: Global Integration, Domain Awareness, Information Dominance and Decision Superiority” | | | | Be a Policy Pro. POLITICO Pro has a free policy resource center filled with our best practices on building relationships with state and federal representatives, demonstrating ROI, and influencing policy through digital storytelling. Read our free guides today . | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
