AUUKUS pocus, China focus

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Wednesday Sep 15,2021 07:54 pm
Presented by Lockheed Martin: From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
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By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

Presented by Lockheed Martin

With help from Paul McLeary, Andrew Desiderio, Daniel Lippman and Erin Banco

President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting.

President Joe Biden. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo

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Washington’s newest, hottest acronym is “AUUKUS” — an ugly mashup of abbreviations for Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Why? Because President JOE BIDEN imminently will announce a new pact with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, two U.S. officials told your host in a POLITICO first.

AUUKUS will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas, including artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems (read: nuclear subs) and long-range strike capabilities.

One of the people said there will be a nuclear element to the pact providing for the U.S. and U.K. to share their knowledge with Australia of how to maintain nuclear-defense infrastructure.

AUUKUS isn’t explicitly about China ... but c’mon, of course it is. Three major Western allies are teaming up to ward off Beijing’s military and technological rise in the Indo-Pacific.

It’s a bold move that’s been well received so far Down Under.

“This is a surprising and extremely welcome sign of the Biden administration’s willingness to empower close allies like Australia through the provision of highly advanced defense technology assistance — something that Washington has rarely been willing to do,” said ASHLEY TOWNSHEND, director of foreign policy and defense programming at the United States Center in Sydney. “It suggests a new and more strategic approach to working collectively with allies on Indo-Pacific defence priorities.”

Asked about POLITICO’s scoop during her daily news briefing, White House press secretary JEN PSAKI told reporters: “We’re going to wait for any announcement to be made more officially later this evening.”

Expect more from Biden on the nitty-gritty details when speaks at 5 p.m., but some key elements have already leaked.

Australia’s Financial Review reported Canberra will abandon a $90 billion submarine deal with France and will now acquire an American-made nuclear-powered submarine. The French deal had long been in trouble, with the Naval Group, the French shipbuilder tasked with constructing the 12 submarines, and the Australian government sparring over design changes and cost increases.

A new class of nuclear-powered submarines would give Washington and its allies in the Pacific a powerful new tool to attempt to contain Chinese military expansion — and would follow on the current deployment of a British aircraft carrier to the region and recent transits by French and German warships to the South China Sea.

The U.S. and U.K. have long partnered on their nuclear-powered submarine programs, sharing technology across their various classes of ships. Bringing Australia into the fold would be a major step in increasing the ability of the three countries to operate together undersea across the Pacific, as well as adding a powerful allied punch in the region that is currently lacking.

Read POLITICO’s full AUUKUS scoop here.

The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NEW GROUP TO FIX USAID: The U.S. Agency for International Development is struggling to meet its mandate and help millions across the world, so a new high-powered advocacy agency will provide outside pressure to instigate reform.

The group, Unlock Aid , features a board of development professionals and a consortium of private companies in the space. Their goal is to help USAID change its business practices and regulations to make providing aid more effective and efficient.

“Constrained by regulations and business practices established decades ago, the world’s largest development agencies are struggling to keep pace and innovate at the speed we need,” reads their website, which NatSec Daily got an exclusive look at.

“There’s never been an outside game for international development,” said MACON PHILLIPS, the group’s interim executive director. “If you’re not putting pressure on people to act, if you’re not holding people accountable … nothing’s going to change.”

The group started their advocacy campaign today by sending a letter to USAID chief SAMANTHA POWER, letting her and her team know that they must unshackle the agency from yesteryear’s practices and find new solutions.

“To meet the challenges of the 21st century, USAID needs to attract the world’s best innovators, both inside and outside of the agency, and creating the conditions for this to happen will require hard work, policy changes, and leadership,” wrote the group’s top officials, which features advisory board members from companies like Zipline and Zenysis Technologies.

Phillips and his Unlock Aid colleague, WALTER KERR , say they’ve spoken to Power’s advisers and they are receptive to such ideas. Power herself has quietly told people that she’s unsatisfied with the agency’s current implementation partners.

“We know she wants to see this kind of reform,” Phillips said.

It’s too early to know if Unlock Aid will be successful. But the takeaway is now the development space has a prominent modernization lobby, and that’s a new element in Washington’s robust influence game.

LONG-TERM AFGHANS AT FORT BLISS?: A leaked State Department cable seen by NatSec Daily had an item indicating refugees fleeing Afghanistan are in for a long stay at Fort Bliss in Texas.

“Based on current resettlement projections, the interagency at Fort Bliss is now planning for a long-term operation to house 10,000 guests until at least Feb 2022,” reads the sensitive-but-unclassified line.

That doesn’t mean all 10,000 people at the El Paso facility will be there until next year, but some might. It indicates the resettlement process for many awaiting to start their new lives in America might take longer than expected.

BLINKEN AND AUSTIN WANTED SLOWER KABUL WITHDRAWAL: The hits from the upcoming BOB WOODWARD and ROBERT COSTA book just keep on coming.

“Woodward and Costa write that Biden's Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN both pushed for a slower withdrawal,” wrote CNN’s JAMIE GANGEL, JEREMY HERB and ELIZABETH STUART. “After a March meeting of NATO ministers, Blinken changed his recommendation about removing all US troops.”

"His new recommendation was to extend the mission with US troops for a while to see if it could yield a political settlement. Buy time for negotiations,” Woodward and Costa wrote in the book. Austin, meanwhile, proposed a three- or four-stage withdrawal that would help the U.S. keep pressure on the Taliban during diplomatic negotiations.

But after 25 (that’s twenty-five!) National Security Council meetings on the subject, Biden remained unconvinced and ordered all U.S. troops out — initially by Sept. 11, then by Aug. 31.

Not so fast… Our own LARA SELIGMAN and DANIEL LIPPMAN poured cold water on the hottest item in the book — that Gen. MARK MILLEY, the Joint Chiefs chair, made “secret” calls to his Chinese counterpart to assure Beijing that former President DONALD TRUMP wouldn’t start an ego-driven war.

“A defense official familiar with the calls said that description is ‘grossly mischaracterized,’” they report. “The official said the calls were not out of the ordinary, and the chairman was not frantically trying to reassure his counterpart.”

“The people also said that Milley did not go rogue in placing the call, as the book suggests. In fact, Milley asked permission from acting Defense Secretary CHRIS MILLER before making the call, said one former senior defense official, who was in the room for the meeting. Milley also briefed the secretary’s office after the call, the former official said.”

“‘We discussed beforehand and after his call with his Chinese counterpart,’ the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.”

Woodward and Costa, though, told POLITICO they stand by their reporting.

Mark Milley participates in a news briefing.

Gen. Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

TWO KOREAS TEST WEAPONS: The quiet arms race between Seoul and Pyongyang is making noise.

South Korean President MOON JAE-IN attended the test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile. South Korea is the first non-nuclear nation to develop such a system. Moon was at the launch event when he heard North Korea fired two ballistic missiles that plunged into the water off the peninsula’s east coast. The projectiles, the first ballistic weapons Pyongyang tested since March, flew nearly 500 miles and went 37 miles high, but neither threatened Korean and Japanese territory.

The events come just days after Pyongyang tested a cruise missile and a month after joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises, indicating that North Korea is retaliating for these actions.

“The cruise missile and now SRBM tests are in response to U.S.-ROK military exercises, although I think the North Korea was itching for a reason to test them,” said JEFFREY LEWIS, a nuclear expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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Flashpoints

U.K. CABINET SHAKE-UP: LIZ TRUSS, the former British international trade secretary, has been appointed foreign secretary in Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON’s Cabinet, replacing DOMINIC RAAB — who was demoted to deputy prime minister and justice secretary, per POLITICO’s MATT HONEYCOMBE-FOSTER.

Raab filled in for Johnson when the prime minister was hospitalized with the coronavirus last year, but he had come under criticism recently for his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal. Education Secretary GAVIN WILLIAMSON, Justice Secretary ROBERT BUCKLAND, and Housing, Communities and Local Government Secretary ROBERT JENRICK were all sacked amid the reshuffling of Johnson’s top team.

CHINA BLOCKS GERMAN WARSHIP FROM DOCKING: Germany’s Foreign Ministry announced Wednesday that China blocked one of its warships from docking in a local port. "China has decided that it does not want a harbour visit, and we took notice of that," a spokesperson said.

The ship, the “Bayern” frigate, left home last month for a six-month mission in the South China Sea. The vessel’s sojourn is a signaling effort that Germany — like many of its Western allies, including the U.S. — don’t accept Beijing’s territorial claims in those waters.

A few experts reached out to NatSec Daily wondering if this stiff arm might be in retaliation for the U.S.-U.K.-Australia deal announced today.

Keystrokes

EX-NATSEC OFFICIALS ARGUE AGAINST ANTITRUST BILLS: Former Defense Secretary LEON PANETTA and former Director of National Intelligence DAN COATS are among 12 former national security officials sending a letter to House leaders Wednesday warning that a package of antitrust legislation could hinder the United States’ technological competition with China, per Axios’ ZACHARY BASU.

“Recent congressional antitrust proposals that target specific American technology firms would degrade critical R&D priorities, allow foreign competitors to displace leaders in the U.S. tech sector both at home and abroad, and potentially put sensitive U.S. data and IP in the hands of Beijing,” the former officials wrote in their letter to House Speaker NANCY PELOSI and House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY.

The Complex

RAYTHEON CHIEF ROSY ABOUT VACCINE MANDATE: Raytheon Technologies CEO GREG HAYES praised Biden’s vaccine and testing mandate as good news for the aerospace and defense industry, saying it was “only going to strengthen the outlook” for airline travel in the fourth quarter of 2021, per our own LEE HUDSON.

Hayes is the first of the top five defense prime CEOs to comment on the White House mandate, which requires vaccinations for all executive branch employees and federal contractors. The mandate also orders businesses with more than 100 employees to either require the vaccine or test workers weekly.

 

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On the Hill

WELCOME TO THE IRON DOME: The Biden administration asked Congress for $250 million to boost the Ukrainian military in its 2022 budget, but for some lawmakers, that isn’t enough.

To meet Russian missile and drone threats, what Ukraine needs are new air defense systems, they say, kind of like the Israeli Iron Dome that has had success in scuttling hundreds of rockets headed for Israeli cities. As our own PAUL MCLEARY reports, the House Armed Services Committee’s version of the fiscal 2022 defense policy bill instructs the Pentagon to study options for potentially selling or transferring “existing systems” to Ukraine.

Enter Iron Dome. Back in 2019, Congress told the Army to buy two batteries of the missile killer, leaping over the service’s objections that it was already building its own system. Since then, the Army hasn’t figured out how to integrate Iron Dome into its network, leading some to suggest they might not hate it if Ukraine were to take one of these batteries.

GRAHAM AND THE RESISTANCE: Our own ANDREW DESIDERIO reports on Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM’s (R-S.C.) bold effort to have the U.S. back the self-proclaimed real president of Afghanistan, AMRULLAH SALEH.

“Graham secured Saleh an Aug. 27 slot on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show, where he pleaded for American assistance as his forces try to bolster the remnants of the U.S.-backed Afghan government that collapsed last month,” Desiderio wrote, noting the senator has a friend in Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), who advocates for arming and funding the Saleh-led resistance.

So far, though, the Biden administration has shown no willingness to back Saleh or his ragtag group of former Afghan commandos.

Graham confirmed his efforts to Desiderio. “I want his voice out,” Graham said of Saleh in an interview this week. “I’m gonna go all in. [The Taliban are] holding our people hostage. They’re a terrorist group. They’re a radical Islamic jihadist group. And if we empower them, it will hurt us all over the world.”

BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR ABRAHAM ACCORDS: Four Senators — two Democrats and two Republicans — released a joint statement in celebration of the one-year anniversary of the signing of the Abraham Accords.

“We congratulate the State of Israel, the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Morocco, and the Republic of Sudan, the participants in the Abraham Accords, who showed a willingness to break the cycle of the past and look forward to the future,” said Sens. Graham, BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) and BEN CARDIN (D-Md.). “We are resolved to protect the Abraham Accords and work with the Biden Administration to see them grow. “

Yesterday, Israeli Knesset member RUTH WASSERMAN LANDE told NatSec Daily she felt assured during a private White House meeting this week that the U.S. would bring a major regional player into the fold sometime soon. According to speculation we keep hearing, that country could be Saudi Arabia.

 

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Broadsides

SCHIFF FUMING AT EGYPT AID: As our own NAHAL TOOSI reported, the United States will withhold and restrict parts of its $300 million in military aid to Egypt over human rights concerns. But the fact that Cairo is getting any support at all has Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, wishing America had done more.

“For far too long, we have failed to hold regimes who commit grievous human rights abuses accountable. Withholding a significant portion of military aid from Egypt due to the country’s continued mistreatment of its own citizens is an appropriate step, and we must follow through when it comes to protecting fundamental freedoms and democracy,” he said in a statement. “The United States has a moral obligation to demand justice for detained U.S. citizens, journalists and activists, and other political prisoners. The Biden administration and Congress must be prepared to take further action to curtail military aid to Egypt if we do not see concrete steps to address our concerns.”

Schiff follows other prominent Democrats, such as Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), in criticizing the administration’s decision.

Transitions

— ANTHONY MUSA is now a foreign affairs officer for the economic bureau of the State Department. He most recently was a sanctions investigator for counterterrorism at the Treasury Department.

— JOCELYN MOORE, who currently serves on the boards of DraftKings and OppFi, has been appointed to the advisory board of Pallas Advisors, a defense and national security-focused firm based out of Washington. A veteran Senate staffer, Moore has worked as executive vice president of communications and public affairs at the National Football League, as well as a managing director at The Glover Park Group.

— RAY O. JOHNSON, former senior vice president and chief technology officer at Lockheed Martin; ESSYE MILLER, former principal deputy chief information officer at the Defense Department; GREG OSLAN, former strategic adviser to the chief information officer at the Department of Homeland Security; and RENEE WYNN, former chief information officer at NASA, have all joined the advisory board of Axonius Federal Systems LLC — a new government-focused subsidiary of Axonius Inc., the cybersecurity asset management company headquartered in New York.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
What to Read

— JULIA C. MORSE, The Atlantic:The Counterterror War That America Is Winning

— ZAKARYA HASSANI and ROBYN HUANG, Time:The Untold Story of How Afghanistan's Fighting Female Governor Salima Mazari Escaped the Taliban

— NICOLE NAREA, Vox:The fight to resettle Afghans in the US has just begun

Tomorrow Today

— The Center for a New American Security, 8 a.m.:Cross-Strait Relations: The Prospects and Challenges — with TAN-SUN CHEN, CHUI-CHENG CHIU, I-CHUNG LAI, INGRID LARSON, PAUL SCHARRE and more”

— The Brookings Institution, 8:30 a.m.:Assessing the US-ROK partnership in the global trade agenda: A conversation with South Korean Trade Minister HAN-KOO YEO — with SUZANNE MALONEY, MIREYA SOLÍS and ANDREW YEO

— The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.:US withdrawal from Afghanistan: What it means for Turkey and the region — with DEFNE ARSLAN, ALPER COŞKUN, KIRSTEN FONTENROSE, MARIKA THEROS and BAŞAK YAVCAN

— The Wilson Center, 9 a.m.:Confronting the China Conundrum: Perspectives Beyond the United States — with BRIAN CARLSON, JA IAN CHONG, KOJI KAGOTANI, THUNG-HONG LIN, ANDREW OROS and more

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.:New Approaches to Understanding Chinese State Capitalism — with JASON ARTERBURN and JUDE BLANCHETTE

— The Middle East Institute, 11:30 a.m.:Climate Change in the Black Sea: Confronting Looming Threats — with ANDREI COVATARIU, MEHMET ÖĞÜTÇÜ, JULIAN POPOV and GÖNÜL TOL

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.:An Allied Response to Beijing’s COVID Obstructionism — with DAVID ASHER, JAMES PATERSON, TOM TUGENDHAT and JOHN P. WALTERS

— The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.:Future Foreign Policy series: Congress and AUMF repeal — with TESS BRIDGEMAN, PETER MEIJER, CHRISTOPHER PREBLE and ABIGAIL SPANBERGER

— The Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 4 p.m.:Can AI Write Disinformation? — with ANDREW LOHN, MICAH MUSSER, GIRISH SASTRY and KATERINA SEDOVA

— The Miller Center, 8:30 p.m.:China and the re-centering of East Asia: A special lecture series — with BRANTLY WOMACK

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Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to editor Ben Pauker, who prowls through our copy like a nuclear-powered submarine.

 

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