Syrian opposition leaders plead for Biden’s help

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Oct 01,2021 07:28 pm
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By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

Presented by Lockheed Martin

With help from Daniel Lippman and Blake Hounshell

Welcome to National Security Daily, your guide to the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night.

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Syrian opposition leaders met this week with Biden administration officials, urging the U.S. not to recognize BASHAR ASSAD’s regime as the country’s legitimate rulers.

Four members of an anti-Assad coalition were in Washington, D.C., to make their case: SALEM AL-MESLET, president of the National Coalition; ABDULHAKEEM BASHAR, president of the Kurdish National Council and vice president of the National Coalition; ANAS AL-ABDEH, president of the Syrian Negotiation Commission; and HADI AL-BAHRA, co-president of the Constitutional Committee.

They got high-level access. On Wednesday, they met at the State Department with JOEY HOOD, the acting assistant secretary for Near Eastern Affairs; ETHAN GOLDRICH, State’s new top Syria official; ZEHRA BELL, the National Security Council director for Iraq and Syria; and a Pentagon representative.

The delegation, alongside the Middle East Institute’s QUTAIBA IDLBI, said U.S. policy toward the Assad regime should be governed by “three no’s,” al-Abdeh told NatSec Daily. “No normalization, no lifting, backsliding, or reduction of sanctions, and no reconstruction money until there’s a political solution in place.”

The delegation heard what they wanted to hear in the meeting. “The administration is not considering recognizing the Assad regime,” a senior administration official told NatSec Daily, a position conveyed to the group. “The United States will not normalize or upgrade its relations with the Assad regime due to the grave atrocities the regime has committed against the Syrian people.”

Still, al-Abdeh said the opposition would like President JOE BIDEN to publicly commit to these three no’s. “We need this clear message to our allies and the regime,” he told your host.

At least the U.S. is telling other countries not to normalize their relations with Damascus, multiple U.S. officials and Abdeh said. But there’s a chance some nations will ignore America’s pleas. At UNGA last week, Syrian Foreign Minister FAISAL AL-MEKDAD met with his Egyptian, Tunisian and Jordanian counterparts, among others — indicating that formal recognition might soon follow.

That has al-Abdeh and his colleagues worried that Assad is still scoring political victories 10 years after the civil war began. It’s why they want the U.S. to more openly and forcefully back the opposition and the U.N.-backed peace process.

“Any kind of dithering in this regard means the Syrian people will pay a heavy price in time and blood,” he said. But he and his compatriots aren’t overly optimistic the U.S. or the world will rally to their cause: “They’ve lost interest … but this isn’t the time to backslide and disengage.”


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The Inbox

ANOTHER NORTH KOREA TEST: Pyongyang continued its torrid pace of weapons testing, launching an anti-aircraft missile Thursday — it’s fourth test of September.

The state-run Korean Central News Agency said the missile gives North Korea “remarkable combat function” and features “major new technology, including the twin rudder controlling technique and double impulse flight mortar.”

Asked Thursday about the new launches, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told reporters: “We’re concerned about these repeated violations of Security Council resolutions that create, I think, greater prospects for instability and insecurity.”

North Korean leader KIM JONG UN promised earlier this year to advance his nation’s arsenal and acquire new capabilities for his armed forces. “These are all things North Korea said it would do, and likely they will need to do more testing for these new systems before making them operational,” JENNY TOWN , director of the Stimson Center’s 38North program, told NatSec Daily.

And with South Korea showing off its own new weaponry last month — including a submarine-launched ballistic missile and a new deployed sub — “it’s going to be harder to convince Pyongyang to refrain from further testing,” Town added.

On Thursday, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily that “[w]e have made specific proposals for discussion with [North Korea] but have not received a response,” adding: “[W]e remain prepared to meet to discuss the full range of issues.” The official, however, didn’t detail what those “specific proposals” were.

On Friday, defense officials from the United States, Japan and South Korea held a call “to discuss regional security affairs,” per a Pentagon readout. They announced a “Trilateral Defense Ministerial” to take place on a yet-undetermined date.

DOD: 2001 AUMF APPLIES TO AFGHAN STRIKES: Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY yesterday said that Biden “has authorized United States forces to strike ISIS-K targets in Afghanistan, pursuant to the 2001 AUMF.” That means the U.S. military’s “over the horizon” strikes to target ISIS-K, which didn’t even exist in 2001, are apparently justified by the post-9/11 law.

This legal basis has critics in Washington and elsewhere.

“The application of the 2001 AUMF to [ISIS] in Syria and Iraq is a reach. The application of the 2001 AUMF to the so-called ISIS-K is a further reach still,” said OONA HATHAWAY , a Yale Law School professor and former Pentagon general counsel. “It gets so far from the original target of the 2001 AUMF — those who ‘planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons’ — that it’s really impossible to justify.”

“Furthermore, ISIS-K is currently at odds with a group that does fall within the AUMF — the Taliban,” Hathaway continued.

The Taliban also aren’t fans of the policy. The militants say that they, as the sovereign leaders of Afghanistan, haven’t given the U.S. permission to fly in their airspace. However, the U.S. hasn’t formally recognized the Taliban as the rulers of the country.

SIT ROOM TO GET A MAKEOVER: The Situation Room, the secure White House space where big decisions about war and peace are made, is getting a technological facelift, per Bloomberg News’ ANTHONY CAPACCIO and JENNIFER JACOBS.

“[T]he Pentagon has proposed shifting almost $46 million previously approved for other programs to accelerate an ongoing overhaul,” they write. Some of the technology in the room — including the classified video, data and voice systems — is 15 years old.

EMILY HORNE, the National Security Council’s spokesperson, wouldn’t detail to NatSec Daily what exactly is due for an upgrade, citing “classification and security considerations.”

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring MATT DUSS, foreign policy adviser to Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.). When he’s not denouncing “the blob” in print or on Twitter, Duss de-stresses with an ice-cold martini on his porch.

What’s in his martini, you ask? Barr Hill gin, Dolin dry vermouth and a Castelvetrano olive. Asked why the porch is Duss’ locale of choice, he says: “Because I can smell the outside air, hear the sounds of the neighborhood, and gaze at the front yard’s beautiful trees and shrubbery.” Cheers, Matt!

IT’S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JonnyCustodio.

 

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Flashpoints

IRAN KEEPS STALLING: Iran’s new regime keeps stalling for time, saying it wants to negotiate America’s reentry into the 2015 nuclear deal while keeping all parties at arm’s length.

“In recent days, Iranian officials have held dozens of meetings with foreign officials to discuss the nuclear talks — but revealed few details about when they will return and what they want. And the regime continues to play a game of brinkmanship with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog agency, striking deals to avoid censures, only to block access for inspectors days later,” POLITICO’s STEPHANIE LIECHTENSTEIN reported.

The result? “The push-pull tactics have fueled worries in diplomatic circles that a return to the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is becoming increasingly difficult,” Liechtenstein wrote.

Frustration is growing in Washington. Last week, a senior State Department official told reporters “the window of opportunity is open and won't be open forever.” Then on Thursday, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) told the American Jewish Congress that “I don't think a return to the [Iran nuclear deal] is sufficient to constrain Iran's malign activity. And increasingly, I don't even know how it's possible when they are so far out of compliance.”

Keystrokes

CISA HEAD SOUNDS ALARM AFTER HOSPITAL HACK: Following a ransomware hack of a Missouri medical center last month, JEN EASTERLY , director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, warned that cybercriminals “are going after any entity that they think they can get money out of.”

In an interview Friday with CBS News’ NANCY CORDES that showcased the CISA chief’s Rubik's Cube-solving skills, Easterly added that if hackers “can figure out a way to get money” from people’s most sensitive data, “they’re going to do it.”

She went on to promote a 24-hour federal reporting requirement for companies that have been hacked; the leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sens. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), proposed legislation to that effect in June.

“It is important that we get that information as quickly as possible,” Easterly said, “so we can both render assistance to the victim, but importantly, be able to share that information as quickly and rapidly as possible to be able to prevent other victims.”

 

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The Complex

HOMELAND SAFE FROM HYPERSONIC MISSILE: Gen. GLEN VANHERCK, commander of U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command, doesn’t seem too concerned about North Korea’s assertion that it tested a new hypersonic missile this week.

At a Pentagon news briefing Thursday, the NORAD chief said the U.S. intelligence community “is still making an assessment of the North Korean claim,” and that “we’ll just have to see that capability.”

He added: “Right now, it would be my assessment that the homeland would be safe and secure from a hypersonic capability, as North Korea claims they have tested.”

Those comments from the American commander come as Kim’s regime has ramped up its missile activity, saying it successfully deployed a ballistic missile system from a train last month. Pyonygang also fired an anti-aircraft missile Thursday, as we noted above.

On the Hill

MCCAUL BLASTS PLAN TO USE RUSSIAN BASES: Rep. MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, responded to a report by our own ANDREW DESIDERIO and LARA SELIGMAN that the U.S. wants to use Russian bases for counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan.

He’s not happy about it. “If these reports are true, it means President Biden is attempting to fill the critically dangerous gaps in our counterterrorism capabilities that he created with his ill-advised decision to withdraw from Afghanistan by making yet another ill-advised decision to rely on Russia as a counterterrorism partner. Not only would this move risk violating the legal prohibition against U.S.-Russian military cooperation, but also it would create an even more dangerous national security threat by giving VLADIMIR PUTIN enormous leverage over this administration,” he said.

“Putin cannot be trusted as a counterterrorism partner. Full stop. I demand answers from this administration immediately,” McCaul concluded.

The Biden admin continues to face criticism for leaving Afghanistan without having deals in place to send evacuees and U.S. military assets.

14 SENATORS SEEKING ORTEGA SANCTIONS: A bipartisan group of 14 senators want U.S. sanctions on Nicaragua to target President DANIEL ORTEGA. In a letter to Blinken led by Sens. Menendez and Rubio, the lawmakers urged the administration to designate Ortega and his top military brass for their crackdown on civilians ahead of a presidential election next month.

“In addition to arbitrary and unjust detentions, the Ortega regime is prohibiting the country’s leading opposition parties from participating in the November elections. It has also dissolved the legal registration of dozens of civil society groups in Nicaragua, and banned respected international organizations from operating in the country,” the senators wrote.

They also said that if opposition candidates aren’t allowed to run in a free and fair election, the United States should work with the Organization of American States to label the entire vote illegitimate.

The Treasury Department declined to comment if sanctions on Ortega were in the works.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 
Transitions

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: JAN DE PAUW is now deputy head of mission for the Belgian Embassy in Washington. He most recently was deputy head of mission at the Belgian Embassy in Iran. GILLES LANDSBERG is also now minister counselor and head of the economic section at the Belgian Embassy. He most recently was a trans-Atlantic diplomatic fellow in the office of the U.S. Special Envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS at the State Department.

What to Read

— FRANCESCA EBEL, Newlines Magazine:As the Tunisian Leader Tightens His Rule, Some Worry When Democracy Will Return

— RAYMOND BONNER, ProPublica:Will the United States Officially Acknowledge That It Had a Secret Torture Site in Poland?

— DREW LAWRENCE, Task & Purpose:‘Left to the devils’: How red tape and paperwork errors betrayed America’s Afghan allies

Monday Today

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Cybersecurity for Critical Infrastructure: American and European Perspectives — with IZABELA ALBRYCHT, SEBASTIAN BURGEMEJSTER, JOHN COSTELLO, ROBERT KOŚLA and JAMES ANDREW LEWIS

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.:Preserving Peace in the Taiwan Strait — with PATRICK CRONIN, SCOTT HAROLD, H.R. MCMASTER and MARK STOKES

— The Center for American Progress Action Fund, 11 a.m.:Countering White Supremacist Activities and Infiltration in Law Enforcement, Military, and Veteran Communities — with ANTHONY BROWN, DOUG JONES, DANIELLA GIBBS LÉGER and NICOLE LEE NDUMELE

— The Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.:Fireside chat with Minister BELINDA BALLUKU — with RICHARD L. MORNINGSTAR

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.:Israel and the World: A Conversation with Amb. YUVAL ROTEM — with MICHAEL DORAN and JOHN P. WALTERS

— The Brookings Institution, 1 p.m.:Engaging China: Reconsidering the strategy and practice — with ROBERT DALY, DAVID M. LAMPTON, CHENG LI and SUSAN A. THORNTON

— The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.:EnergySource Innovation Stream: Artificial Intelligence-based monitoring for securing industrial IoT and the energy transition from cyberattacks — with LEO SIMONOVICH

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.:Establishing a Cybersecure North America — with MANUEL BALCÁZAR, GLADYS MCCORMICK, VINCENT RIGBY, DANIEL F. RUNDE and SUZANNE SPAULDING

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