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Presented by Lockheed Martin: From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman. | 
U.S. Ambassador to China nominee Nicholas Burns attends a hearing to examine his nomination before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Oct. 20, 2021. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo | Welcome to National Security Daily, your guide to the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint If lawmakers want to change America’s “strategic ambiguity” policy toward Taiwan’s defense, the likely new U.S. ambassador to China, R. NICHOLAS BURNS, would like to have a word. During his Wednesday confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Burns rebuffed the idea that the Biden administration should firmly declare it will defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack. “We’re better off, and we’ll be more effective, in staying with the One China policy of the last four decades,” the nominee said in response to a question from Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.). “We have under the Taiwan Relations Act, the ability — and in fact, the imperative — of helping Taiwan to defend itself.” The support, mainly in the form of weapons sales, is vital since Burns believes China “intend[s] to take Taiwan back. … Our responsibility is to make Taiwan a tough nut to crack.” It’s likely that Burns, a career diplomat now at Harvard University, will sail through confirmation. But his statement counters a growing movement on Capitol Hill and among some analysts that strategic ambiguity has outlived its usefulness. Loyal readers will remember Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), a Senate Armed Services Committee member, told Alex during POLITICO’s first defense forum two weeks ago that “ removing the ambiguity would be good.” Other U.S. officials on the Hill and elsewhere NatSec Daily has spoken with echo this sentiment, though there’s no real effort to make a mandatory defense of Taiwan official U.S. policy — at least not yet. Burns, 65, used the rest of his time to say that America still has the ability to contest — and win — in a global competition with China. “Beijing proclaims that the East is rising, and the West is in decline,” he said. “I’m confident in our own country.” “The People’s Republic of China is not an Olympian power,” adding, “it’s a country of extraordinary strength, but it also has substantial weaknesses and challenges, demographically, economically, politically.” The administration has to date pursued a multilateral approach to pushing back against China, such as with informal groupings like “the Quad.” How successful Burns is at executing that approach from Beijing will go a long way in showing if Biden’s team has the right formula for China. | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down and who really has the president's ear in West Wing Playbook, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | MORE AFGHAN WATCHDOG WORK: We recently reported that the inspectors general at both the State and Defense departments have launched reviews of the Afghanistan debacle. Our NAHAL TOOSI learned today that the U.S. Agency for International Development’s inspector general, too, is looking into separate-but-related matters. The development agency’s IG office says it is planning “an audit of USAID’s humanitarian assistance activities in Afghanistan, as well as an audit on the termination process for Afghan-related programming. We also are planning follow-up work on USAID’s risk management activities there.” HALF OF AFGHAN EVACUEES IN U.S. ARE CHILDREN: About half of the 53,000 Afghans brought to the U.S. military facilities during the rushed exit are children under 18 years old, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN confirmed to Sen. JAMES INHOFE (R-Okla.) in a letter. The Oct. 8 letter, reviewed by NatSec Daily, also states the people at U.S. military facilities around the country are 34 percent adult males and 22 percent adult females. Furthermore, Austin stated “Of the population evacuated, approximately seven percent were U.S. Citizens, five percent were lawful permanent residents, three percent held some sort of U.S. visa, and 85 percent included Afghans eligible” for differing refugee programs or statuses. Most of the secretary’s answers to the SASC ranking member’s 12 questions are classified, and Austin doesn’t go into deep detail in his unclassified responses. Still, this letter is the first time the Pentagon provided details on the demographics of the evacuated population awaiting relocation. The letter was first reported on by the Wall Street Journal’s NANCY A. YOUSSEF. SULLIVAN PUSHES SAUDI TOWARD ABRAHAM ACCORDS: National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN raised the issue of Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel during his Sept. 27 meeting with Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, per Axios’s BARAK RAVID. MBS didn’t reject the idea, Ravid reported, but told Sullivan that Riyadh had other priorities first — namely, improvements in declining U.S.-Saudi relations. Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords — in which the Arab nations of Morocco, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Sudan have normalized relations with Israel — would prove the biggest prize yet for the diplomatic initiative started in the Trump administration. Last month, RUTH WASSERMAN LANDE, a member of Israel’s Blue and White party and co-chair of the Knesset’s pro-Abraham Accords caucus, told NatSec Daily during her Washington visit that the Biden administration is “absolutely, and without a doubt, committed to the Abraham Accords.” Lande said of Biden’s team that “they are speaking,” and “they are working on broadening with significant partners in the region” — a clear reference to Saudi Arabia. The Axios report makes clear that getting Riyadh aboard the normalization train is a priority for the administration. TREASURY’S SANCTIONS REVIEW: The Treasury Department released its sanctions review this week, coming after six months of intense deliberations within and outside of government. It’s been received positively by experts and officials NatSec Daily spoke with, but we still wanted to talk to someone at the agency about one concern: Will the U.S. going forward ensure sanctions don’t harm non-targets? “We have to be more rigorous in the way we consider and mitigate unintended consequences,” a senior Treasury official told NatSec Daily on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about the review. That doesn’t mean the administration will shy away from the use of sanctions — which saw a 900 percent increase in use over the last 10 years — but it will follow a “more rigorous” implementation model to “mitigate unintended consequences.” Some of those consequences include making it more cumbersome for a firm following the law to do business, or harder for everyday civilians to get food, medicine and other supplies. The review is more of a framework document, experts note, and as such it offers precious few details about how the new strategy will be executed. But the first step is admitting there’s a problem — Treasury has. #WERUNNATSEC: Tons of you — including Biden administration nominees — are into the virtual run club idea and are already getting out there. We love it. Make sure you keep us updated on your runs at #WeRunNatSec so we know you’re not slacking. Oh, and Alex is running Saturday for Team POLITICO in the James W. Foley Freedom Run 5k to support efforts to bring home American hostages and promote the safety of journalists worldwide. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JonnyCustodio. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Going beyond manufacturing optimization to the next digital revolution.
Lockheed Martin’s mission-driven transformation includes the entire system lifecycle to connect everything with a digital thread—from early design and rapid prototyping through to production and sustainment. The result? Faster deliveries, agile responsiveness and data-driven insights for the warfighter. Learn More | | | | | | UNSC EMERGENCY MEETING ON NORTH KOREA: The U.N. Security Council arranged an emergency meeting today after North Korea’s continued run of provocative missile tests, including one earlier this week. Multiple officials from Security Council nations told NatSec Daily the goal of the meeting is consultative, to ensure the countries agree the launches are threatening and in violation of the body’s resolutions. It’s currently unclear what actions, if any, the UNSC will take going forward. What is clear is that current sanctions haven’t stopped North Korea from advancing its arsenal, in part because UNSC permanent members Russia and China — both of which are Pyongyang’s biggest trading partners — aren’t enforcing penalties. Officials said the meeting gave members the opportunity to raise those concerns. RECORD-BREAKING BORDER ARRESTS: The U.S. detained 1.7 million migrants trying to enter the southern border during the 2021 fiscal year that ended in September, reports the Washington Post’s NICK MIROFF, citing unpublished U.S. Customs and Border Patrol data. That’s the largest total ever recorded. “Illegal crossings began rising last year but skyrocketed in the months after President Biden took office. As CBP arrests increased this past spring, Biden described the rise as consistent with historic seasonal norms. But the busiest months came during the sweltering heat of July and August, when more than 200,000 migrants were taken into custody,” Miroff wrote. “Of the 1.7 million detained during the 2021 fiscal year, 61 percent were expelled under Title 42” — the controversial policy that allows the U.S. to expel immigrants during a health crisis. Immigration remains a political liability for the Biden administration, and efforts from Vice President KAMALA HARRIS to address the “root causes” of migration in Central America so far have had no clear impact. | | | ISRAELI AND EMIRATI CYBER OFFICIALS JOIN CONFERENCE: Israeli, Emirati and American cyber officials attended a big cyber conference in New York today, showcasing their increasing closeness since the Abraham Accords breakthrough. The conference, Cybertech NYC, features YIGAL UNNA, Israel’s director-general of the National Cyber Directorate, Communications Minister YOAZ HENDEL and former Mossad chief TAMIR PARDO. The delegation from the United Arab Emirates includes MOHAMED AL-KUWAITI, the cybersecurity chief, and Police Telecommunications head HAMAD KHALIFA AL NUAIMI. The Times of Israel’s LAZAR BERMAN reported that “Israel’s cyber expertise helped lay the groundwork for normalization agreements with its Arab partners and has been a component in the expansion of those ties.” “Normalization comes from a desire on the ground. The fact that we are doing business with them creates a situation where it is easier to establish relations with Israel,” ALON SHAHAK, former head of the Cyber Sector at the Israel Export Institute, told Berman. | | | REVIEWPALOOZA: Our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note that there are two major reviews coming out that should impact the administration’s national security policy: the Global Posture Review and Conventional Arms Transfer policy. Up first: The Global Posture Review, which could be made public as soon as this month, will be the first reassessment of where U.S. forces are deployed globally since the messy end of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and as pressure grows for a larger military presence in the Indo-Pacific. More than people: It’s not just boots on the ground. Some Asia hands have grumbled that while Europe is filling up with F-35 squadrons, there are still relatively few in the Indo-Pacific. The Navy has also been eyeing new port facilities in places such as Palau as new staging areas for ships operating in the South China Sea. Arms deals: A draft of the arms transfer policy “is undergoing review in the interagency process,” a source familiar with the review tells our own PAUL MCLEARY , also confirming earlier reports that it will be more focused on protecting human rights when weighing arms sales overseas. That emphasis can be difficult to put into practice, however, so there’ll be some explaining to do once the policy hits the street. | | | |   | | | | | | 5 GOP SENATORS RIP TSA’S CYBER RULES DASH: In a letter sent yesterday to Transportation Security Administration chief DAVID PEKOSKE, five Republican members of the Senate Commerce Committee said they were worried about the agency’s rush to impose new cyber mandates. “We write to express concern about the recent announcement that the TSA intends to impose new prescriptive cybersecurity requirements on the rail, rail transit, and aviation industries through Security Directives. We encourage you to reconsider whether using emergency authority is appropriate absent an immediate threat. With the benefit of public notice and comment through the rulemaking process, TSA may avoid any unintended consequences that disrupt existing effective cybersecurity practices or transportation operations,” the lawmakers wrote. They continued: “Rather than prescriptive requirements that may not enhance capabilities to address future threats, TSA should consider performance standards that set goals for cybersecurity while enabling businesses to meet those goals. If a determination is made to proceed with specific mandates, the notice and comment process would at least allow for thoughtful consideration of industry practices and concerns.” Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), the panel’s ranking member, led the letter also signed by Sens. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.), DEB FISCHER (R-Neb.), TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) and CYNTHIA LUMMIS (R-Wyo.).
| | | HALEY WANTS HALT ON IRANIAN OIL TO CHINA: Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations NIKKI HALEY is haranguing the Biden administration for not doing more to counter China’s importing of Iranian oil, contending Tehran is using the revenue from those sanctions-violating shipments to help fund terror groups across the Middle East. “Why would Biden let this brazen defiance continue?” Haley asked in a Washington Post op-ed yesterday. “Two reasons. On Iran, he has said that dialogue and diplomacy are the key to progress, especially when it comes to reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. … As for China, Biden’s policy is incoherent. He often seems hesitant to take steps that might hamper his ability to negotiate a climate deal.” Now, the former U.N. envoy wants American lawmakers to take action where she argues the administration is falling short. “To start, Congress can enact sanctions on the People’s Bank of China and other Chinese banks that deal with the Central Bank of Iran. They should tie any relief to compliance with U.S. sanctions against Iran,” she wrote, adding that Congress “can also place sanctions on Chinese entities that store Iranian oil or help operate, maintain, register or insure vessels that transport it.” Ultimately, though, “Congress can only do so much,” Haley concluded, and a more proportionate response calls for the president “instructing the Treasury Department to sanction individual vessels carrying Iranian oil and the countless storage specialists, port authorities, importing agents and others who aid in shipping.” RESTRAINERS BASH AUSTIN OVER UKRAINE TWEET: Yesterday SecDef Austin tweeted about his arrival in Kyiv, Ukraine, in which he said “I'm here to reaffirm our unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and Euro-Atlantic aspirations — and to express our commitment to build Ukraine’s capacity to deter further Russian aggression.” Advocates of U.S. foreign policy restraint aren’t pleased with the secretary's message. “Dangerous cant. Ukraine is not an ally and there is no sound strategic rationale for making it one or treating it as if it is (or will be),” tweeted WILLIAM RUGER, vice president for research and policy at the Charles Koch Institute and once nominated by former President DONALD TRUMP as ambassador to Afghanistan. “Mystifying. There’s no need for this, surely the Russians aren’t buying it, and we already proved that our support for Ukrainian sovereignty is… conditional. So why do this?” tweeted the CATO Institute’s JUSTIN LOGAN. These missives are reflective of the debate in Washington over the amount of over defensive and offensive support the U.S. should give Ukraine, which isn’t a NATO member.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | — DANIEL LEONARDINI is now a program examiner in the national security division at the Office of Management and Budget. He most recently was a program manager at the Defense Department. — EDWARD A. BURRIER is now senior adviser for private sector engagement at the United States Institute of Peace’s Africa Center. He previously served as executive vice president of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and is a House Foreign Affairs Committee alum. — Retired Capt. LAWRENCE E. “LARRY” MEEHAN has joined The Roosevelt Group as a senior adviser. He recently retired from the Navy International Program Office, where he served as director of the Middle East Division. — The president will nominate DONALD ARMIN BLOME as U.S. ambassador to Pakistan and PETER BESHAR as general counsel of the Department of the Air Force.
| | | — DAVID ZUCCHINO, The New York Times: “Female Judges in Afghanistan, Now Jobless and in Hiding” — GERRY DOYLE, ANAND KATAKAM, BEN BLANCHARD and MARCO HERNANDEZ, Reuters: “ The skies over the South China Sea” — WILLIAM WAN and IAN SHAPIRA, The Washington Post: “The accused spy knew stealth was crucial from his work on submarines. He surfaced anyway.”
| | | — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 8 a.m.: “Future U.S. Defense Strategy in East Asia — with ELBRIDGE A. COLBY and MEIA NOUWENS” — The National Security Innovation Network, 9:30 a.m.: “Propel-MassChallenge 2021 Safety & Security Demo Day — with WILL ROPER” — House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: Update on VA’s Electronic Health Record Modernization Implementation — with DONALD REMY” — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Preparing for COP26: United States Strategy to Combat Climate Change Through International Development — with GILLIAN CALDWELL, JAKE LEVINE and JONATHAN RICHART” — House Intelligence Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Covert Action’s Role in Foreign Policy” — House Natural Resources Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: Runit Dome and the U.S Nuclear Legacy in the Marshall Islands” — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 10 a.m.: “The Long Aftermath of War: Dilemmas of Post-Conflict Intervention — with SUSANNA CAMPBELL, NIGEL GOULD-DAVIES, BENJAMIN PETRINI, MONA YACOUBIAN and EROL YAYBOKE ” — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Safeguarding Inspector General Independence and Integrity — with MICHAEL E. HOROWITZ, ALLISON C. LERNER and KEVIN H. WINTERS” — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 1 p.m.: “Markup: Various Measures” — House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Operation Allies Welcome: Examining DHS’s Efforts to Resettle Vulnerable Afghans — with NAHEED SAMADI BAHRAM, MICHAEL BREEN, ART DELACRUZ and ROBIN DUNN MARCOS” — Ploughshares Fund, 2 p.m.: “Press the Button LIVE: Nuclear Policy in the Biden Administration and Beyond — with JON FINER, RO KHANNA, NANCY PELOSI, BEN RHODES and ADAM SMITH” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: “Schieffer Series: AUKUS and Its Impacts — with HEATHER A. CONLEY, MICHAEL J. GREEN, BOB SCHIEFFER, JOHN THOMAS SCHIEFFER and H. ANDREW SCHWARTZ” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin’s mission-driven transformation embraces disruptive processes, technology and tools to drive faster deliveries, agile responsiveness and data-driven insights for the warfighter, including:
• Digital Engineering Model-based engineering optimizes design and links design, manufacturing and sustainment teams on a common digital thread to save costs and speed program lifecycles.
• Next-Gen Software A company-wide Software Factory is deploying DevSecOps approaches and enabling fast development and continuous deployment of software to advance customer missions.
• Digital Enablement Company-wide investments in process reinvention, business system modernization, 5G networking, cyber and cloud are laying the foundation for transformational capabilities.
• Data as a Strategic Asset Building the global infrastructure to share data instantly and securely, and the AI-powered, predictive analytics to glean insights that advance performance.
• Advanced Production Revolutionizing factories with smart tools, connected machines, networked supply chains and mixed reality tools for technicians to speed production and improve quality.
See our transformation in action. | | | And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who we would unambiguously defend against any attacks. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
