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Presented by Lockheed Martin: From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint It sure looks like the Pentagon is trying to stop President JOE BIDEN from reforming America’s nuclear posture to a less combative stance — setting up a showdown between DoD and the White House over a major national security decision. Biden’s decadeslong ambition to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in America’s military posture is facing growing resistance from inside the five-sided building, especially as information about China and Russia’s growing arsenals keeps coming to light. Among the options for debate during a yearlong review are adopting a “no first use” policy and/or declaring that the “sole purpose” of the arsenal is to deter a nuclear conflict and that such weapons would not be used to respond to a conventional war or other strategic assault like a cyber attack. Both would mark major departures from the current posture, which has been purposely ambiguous throughout the nuclear age about whether the United States might strike first, and holds that atomic weapons are for “deterrence of nuclear and non-nuclear attack.” Biden’s National Security Council is anticipating convening a high-level meeting on nuclear declaratory policy this month, according to a White House official who spoke to POLITICO on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity. But elements within the Pentagon don’t see the world the way the president does, namely because of China’s nuclear expansion and Russia’s weapons modernization. So even though Biden will make the ultimate decision on America’s nuclear posture, DoD is already looking to influence the president by not giving him much to choose from. “It’s not likely that sole purpose or no first use will be presented as options,” a DoD official familiar with the nuclear review told Alex and our own BRYAN BENDER and PAUL MCLEARY. When asked about this comment, chief DoD spokesperson JOHN KIRBY pushed back: “That account offered to you by the official is inaccurate,” he said. The Pentagon is participating in “an inclusive, comprehensive process.” “Ultimately, of course, this policy is a presidential-level decision,” he continued. Still, others agreed with the unnamed DoD official. “This thing is lost,” said a former government official who is in direct contact with officials undertaking the Nuclear Posture Review. “There’s no points of debate,” said the former official, contending that officials who support considering such alternatives, particularly at the State Department, have struggled to get traction in meetings steered by the Pentagon. The review is slated to be completed in January. Biden is loath to have the Pentagon box him in on any decision, as he made repeatedly clear during the Afghanistan debate. DoD seems to have a learned a lesson from that episode: Don’t give the president options the department doesn’t like. Read the full story on the growing DoD-White House nuclear rift here. | | | | KNOW WHAT THE INSIDERS KNOW, READ PLAYBOOK: POLITICO Playbook analyzes the big stories and trends, bringing you the latest from Washington and across the political landscape. Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Tara Palmeri deliver the scoops you need to know — and the insider nuggets that you want to know — about the biggest political power players. Subscribe to Playbook, the unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– BIPARTISAN LAWMAKERS SEEK COFA AGREEMENTS: Ten lawmakers — eight Democrats, two Republicans — today sent a letter to national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN urging the administration to finalize negotiations with Pacific island nations over nuclear waste and funding. Countries called the Freely Associated States — the Marshall Islands, Palau and Micronesia — each have their own agreements with America known collectively as the Compacts of Free Association. Generally speaking, they all feature a trade-off: the U.S. provides funding for things like school lunches and the islands give America a platform from which to keep tabs on China and test missiles. In addition, the islands push Washington to remove nuclear waste from the islands after testing bombs decades ago in the region. The COFA with the Marshall Islands expires in 2023, with the Palau agreement ending the following year. Negotiations to extend the deals began during the Trump administration. But the lawmakers — Reps. DINA TITUS (D-Nev.), ED CASE (D-Hawaii), MICHAEL F.Q. SAN NICOLAS (D-Guam), GREGORIO KILILI CAMACHO SABLAN (I-Northern Mariana Islands), AUMUA AMATA COLEMAN RADEWAGEN (R-American Samoa), KATIE PORTER (D-Calif.), KAI KAHELE (D-Hawaii), TED LIEU (D-Calif.), BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.) and KATHY MANNING (D-N.C.) — fear there isn’t enough time to hammer out all the sensitive issues before the current COFA expirations. In their letter, they ask Sullivan to push for “the presidential designation of a lead negotiator on the National Security Council ... Presidential designees have led successful COFA talks in the past, and an appointment would send an unmistakable signal that President Biden is invested in our special relationship with the FAS and recognizes their importance to our priorities in the Indo-Pacific.” Titus expanded on the demands in brief comments to NatSec Daily. “It is extremely concerning that we are not prioritizing the renewal of the Compacts of Free Association,” she said. “China continues to encroach on our allies throughout the Pacific and if we do not renew these agreements swiftly, they will step in to provide the financial assistance and infrastructure investment our FAS partners desperately need.” One person familiar with the situation said the NSC will hold a meeting on Monday about COFA-related nuclear issues. Asked about that, a NSC spokesperson replied “as a matter of policy, we do not discuss details or deliberations of regularly scheduled meetings.” In October, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said “We reaffirm the importance of our special and historic relationship, which will continue to support security, stability, freedom, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific for years to come. The Administration is prioritizing Compact negotiations with the Freely Associated States, and, through ongoing negotiations with the Marshall Islands, we seek to strengthen our enduring partnership.” LOOK WHO’S COMING TO SUMMIT: Our own NAHAL TOOSI got a list of who may be joining the virtual Summit for Democracy — and let the game of “why weren’t we invited?” begin! For example, Hungary isn’t invited — likely due to Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN’s autocratic turn — but an increasingly anti-democratic Poland is welcome to join. Nigeria is also on the list, even though President MUHAMMADU BUHARI had forces crack down violently on protesters and even placed a blanket ban on Twitter. Israel got the nod, of course, even though the new government continues to trample on the rights of Palestinians. Bangladesh isn’t on the list, but Pakistan — whose government is heavily influenced by the military — makes the cut. It’s also worth noting Taiwan has a golden ticket, though the United States doesn’t officially recognize it as a country. No democracy is perfect — including the United States — but the list of invitees raises questions about the criteria the administration used. Is it mainly that free and fair elections were held? Is it simply having a democratic system in place? We asked the White House, but didn’t receive a response. Make sure you read Toosi’s story on the “illustrative menu of options” the administration is floating before heading into the Dec. 9-10 sessions. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3® MSE: Advanced air defense using hit-to-kill technology to defend against incoming threats.
The PAC-3® Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) uses a revolutionary two-pulse solid rocket motor and combat-proven Hit-to-Kill technology to defeat incoming threats, including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft. Learn More | | | 2 DIPLOMATS TO LEAD HAVANA SYNDROME EFFORT: Blinken today announced that two career diplomats — JONATHAN MOORE and MARGARET UYEHARA — will lead the State Department’s efforts to address so-called Havana Syndrome-related problems. Moore will head the Health Incident Response Task Force, while Uyehara will serve as the senior care coordinator. Furthermore, Blinken said the administration is “developing, obtaining and deploying technology to the field to protect our personnel.” While he wouldn’t go into detail, he noted the “new technology is helping us more quickly and thoroughly evaluate a variety of potential causes of these incidents, and we've distributed across posts so that we can respond rapidly to new reports.” “If we want the State Department to be as strong as it can be, and the most effective advocate for our interests and values around the world, we have to take care of the people who serve here. That's our most important duty,” Blinken concluded. The announcements come after much criticism that Blinken hasn’t taken the Havana Syndrome issue seriously enough. The CIA is still reviewing intelligence on what exactly is causing the symptoms and who’s responsible for the supposed directed-energy attacks. WH PUSHES BACK ON CHINA SUMMIT DELIVERABLES: As my colleague Phelim Kine wrote in yesterday's China Watcher, the White House is working to prep the upcoming virtual summit between Biden and Chinese President XI JINPING . Major sticking points like Taiwan's status and Hong Kong's rule of law are almost assuredly off the table for serious discussion. "No major breakthroughs are expected during the yet unscheduled meeting, but sources tell China Watcher that agreements on reopening consulates and easing visa restrictions will likely be announced," Kine reported. Administration officials today pushed back hard on the idea of floating consulate reopenings ... which leaves us wondering: are there any diplomatic deals to be made? DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), who loyal readers of NatSec Daily will recognize as the person whose legislation to make State more risk tolerant we featured on Tuesday. When the San Diegan is back home, she likes to wind down with a margarita at Barrio Starr. But when she’s legislating in the nation’s capital, she enjoys a bourbon in her own office. Those keeping score at home will recall that that’s the second margarita lover in a row, following Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) last week. A Congressional trend, perhaps? Either way: Cheers, Congresswoman! | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JonnyCustodio.
| | | IRAN CLAIMS IT NEARLY DOUBLED ENRICHED URANIUM: Ahead of a planned resumption of nuclear deal talks on Nov. 29, Iran’s government claimed today that it has nearly doubled its amount of enriched uranium. “We have more than 210 kilograms [about 463 pounds] of uranium enriched to 20 percent, and we've produced 25 kilos [about 55 pounds] at 60 percent, a level that no country apart from those with nuclear arms are able to produce," BEHROUZ KAMALVANDI, a spokesperson for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, told the state news agency IRNA. Both of those levels are far above the enriched limit of 3.67 percent outlined in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Weapons-grade uranium must be enriched to 90 percent, so Tehran is still a ways off from having the materials to power the bomb. But the stockpile is still a major provocation and it’s hard not to link the uptick to the Trump administration’s decision to take the United States out of the nuclear deal in 2018. Analysts say the announcement is likely a way for Iran to gain leverage ahead of nuclear-deal talks in Vienna scheduled for later this month.
| | | UKRAINE EXPOSED RUSSIAN HACKING OP: Ukrainian authorities Thursday exposed a Russian hacking operation targeting the country’s government and infrastructure, Cyberscoop’s AJ VICENS reported. “The hackers, according to the Security Service of Ukraine, are responsible for more than 5,000 cyberattacks on Ukrainian state entities and critical infrastructure that attempted to ‘infect’ more than 1,500 government computer systems,” Vicens wrote. “The report says the Russian intelligence agency the Federal Security Service (FSB) is behind the ‘Armageddon’ group, known more broadly outside Ukrainian borders as Gamaredon or Primitive Bear.” “The FSB officers involved, as well as former Ukrainian law enforcement officers, are being accused of several crimes in Ukraine, including espionage, unauthorized interference with the work of computer systems and the creation and use of malicious software,” Vicens continued. The Russians can’t stop hacking. Last week, Microsoft unveiled that Russia’s foreign intelligence service, SVR, was preparing for a SolarWinds-style hack before the company caught them early.
| | | F-35 ENGINE FIGHT: Congressional committees and top military engine-makers are offering competing solutions for how best to turbocharge the world’s supply of F-35 fighters, per our own LEE HUDSON (for Pros!). The Defense Department says the Lockheed Martin jet needs new weapons and enhanced processing power in order to counter China. According to the House Armed Services Committee’s fiscal 2022 defense policy bill, the Pentagon should submit a new engine transition strategy for the F-35A, including how to replace or upgrade the engine for the F-35B and F-35C. But the Senate Armed Services Committee’s version of the legislation directs the Air Force to provide details for an acquisition strategy and a plan for an engineering and manufacturing development program to transition new engines into the F-35 in 2023. The Senate bill does not mention upgrading the existing engine, supplied by Pratt & Whitney. Although both General Electric and Pratt & Whitney are developing next-generation “adaptive engines” for future aircraft, Pratt & Whitney insists the new technology is too risky and is pushing for the Pentagon to simply upgrade the existing F135 engine.
| | | CONGRESS CONSIDERING WAR AUTH TO DEFEND TAIWAN: Our own ANDREW DESIDERIO has picked up on one of the most consequential trends in Congress: the growing bipartisan movement to preemptively authorize Biden to send troops to defend Taiwan. Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.), a retired Navy officer and the vice chair of the House Armed Services Committee, told Desiderio that Congress should consider sending Biden a “very narrow and specific contingent authorization for the use of military force” to defend Taiwan. That action would effectively gut “strategic ambiguity” and allow the president to respond immediately to a Chinese attack or invasion without waiting for Congress to send him an authorization. This movement faces headwinds, namely a nascent bipartisan consensus to rein in — not expand — a president’s war authority, as well as prominent figures, like Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ of New Jersey against the Taiwan approval. And some of the most hawkish Republicans aren’t on board with the idea, either. “This needs a very directed response from all of us that is properly worded,” said Sen. JIM RISCH of Idaho, the top Republican on the SFRC, told Desiderio. “Because there’s a very delicate balance here, and we have maintained that delicate balance for many, many years. And it would be troublesome if we upset that.” But that this debate is happening at all shows how much anti-China hawkishness has captured official Washington –– so much so that lawmakers are considering doing away with a “strategic ambiguity” policy that has kept the peace for decades. Meanwhile, today six Republican Senators — Sens. Risch, BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), MIKE CRAPO (R-Idaho), MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah), JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) — introduced the “ Taiwan Deterrence Act.” The bill authorizes $2 billion a year in foreign military financing for Taiwan, should it meet certain conditions and amends the Arms Export Control Act to make arms transfers to the island easier. | | | |   | | | | | | COTTON’S PLAN TO COUNTER RUSSIA: Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), a Senate Armed Services Committee member and rumored 2024 hopeful, wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed ripping Biden for not pushing back hard enough on Russia. “While President Biden has been distracted by a climate-change conference and sagging approval at home, President VLADIMIR PUTIN is building up Russian forces along the Ukrainian border. The Biden administration must respond to this provocation and do what President Obama didn’t — deter Russian aggression against its Western neighbor — before it’s too late,” he wrote. The lawmaker offered a four-point plan to push back on Moscow. First, quickly arm Ukraine with lethal defense weapons. Second, reimpose sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Third, expel the right number of Russian diplomats to make their delegation in the U.S. and America’s corps in Russia roughly equal. Fourth, demand that European allies share the burden for their own defense. The Russian leader will “respect only power and strength, ruthlessly exploiting generosity and weakness,” Cotton concluded. “Mr. Putin won’t stop his aggression until he is forced into a defensive posture by united Western pressure.” TOLO NEWS FOUNDER WANTS U.S. MORE INVOLVED IN AFGHANISTAN: SAAD MOHSENI, the founder of Afghanistan's influential Tolo News, wrote an op-ed for Politico Magazine calling on the Biden administration to get more involved — especially since the country has plunged further into chaos since the Taliban takeover. "President Joe Biden may wish to forget about Afghanistan, but there’s never been a more urgent need for the U.S. to stay involved. A military withdrawal should not mean diplomatic disengagement, no matter how politically embarrassing the episode was for the White House. The crises that are consuming Afghanistan threaten to exacerbate the very problems Washington intervened to deal with in the first place," wrote Mohseni, who's got high-level contacts in the U.S. government. Some of those crises? "Young babies are now starving to death. Those parents who fear this fate are selling off their children to survive themselves. More than half of Afghanistan’s 39 million people do not have enough to eat and are 'marching to starvation,”' in the haunting words of the World Food Program. By next year, the United Nations warns, 95% of the country could be plunged into poverty," per Mohseni. "Two months after the Taliban’s takeover, Afghanistan is reeling from the quadruple crises of conflict, coronavirus, climate change and economic collapse." The piece is another indicator of how dire the situation is in Afghanistan, and how much the nation's elite want to push their American counterparts to do more. | | | — RITA KONAEV has joined the Atlantic Council as a senior nonresident fellow, exploring the implications of artificial intelligence for national security. She also serves as associate director of analysis and a research fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, and as an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. — KATE KIZER, the policy director of Win Without War, announced she will leave her post at the end of the year.
| | | — EUGENE FIDELL, Just Security: “The Missing Kabul Drone Strike Report” — ALASTAIR GALE, The Wall Street Journal: “ German Navy, Eyes on China, Adds to Europe’s Pacific Presence” — MATT BURGESS, Wired: “Ignore China’s New Data Privacy Law at Your Peril” | | A message from Lockheed Martin: HIMARS: Proven reliability for the most advanced missions today and tomorrow.
Exceeding 2 million operating hours and counting, HIMARS represents the battle-tested dependability for warfighters around the world. Learn More | | | | | | — The Institute for Defense and Government Advancement, 8:45 a.m.: “Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance and Command and Control Battle Management Forum — with MATTHEW GLAVY, GREGORY KAUSNER, B. CHANCE SALTZMAN, DANIEL L. SIMPSON, RANDALL G. WALDEN and more” — Washington Post Live, 9 a.m.: “The Path Forward: Securing the Cyber Landscape with Gen. KEITH B. ALEXANDER — with DAVID IGNATIUS” — The Government Technology and Services Coalition, 10 a.m.: “10th Annual Customs and Border Protection Week — with KATHLEEN SCUDDER” — Open Society Foundations, 10 a.m.: “ Human Rights Challenges a Year After the 44-Day War in Nagorno-Karabakh — with LEVON GEVORGYAN, HEIDI HAUTALA, SIRANUSH SAHAKYAN, YERVAND SHIRINYAN and ARMAN TATOYAN” — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: “ Crafting a Transatlantic Approach to 5G: Assessing the Evolution of Open RAN in the United States and Europe — with SAMIH ELHAGE, MELISSA K. GRIFFITH, STEIN LUNDBY, SLAWOMIR PIETRZYK and FRANZ SEISER” — The Royal United Services Institute, 11:30 a.m.: “ Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism: Lessons Learned Two Decades into the ‘War on Terror’ — with FATHIMA AZMIYA BADURDEEN, MICHAEL JONES, ERIC ROSAND and ATHINA TZEMPRIN” — The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: “ Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Causes and Consequences — with ALBERT GERARD ‘BERT’ KOENDERS and MICHAEL G. PLUMMER” — The Wilson Center, 4 p.m.: “Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate — with ERIC ARNESEN, CHRISTIAN F. OSTERMANN, SERHII PLOKHII, M.E. SAROTTE, JENNIFER SIEGEL and HEIDI TWOREK” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who only gives us one option to choose from: His way. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
