Where the Russians are

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Thursday Dec 09,2021 09:00 pm

Dec 09, 2021

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By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

Presented by Lockheed Martin

With help from Nahal Toosi and Connor O'Brien.

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A new Janes analysis of open-source intelligence, including satellite imagery , details why Russia’s military massing on Ukraine’s border is dangerously different.

“[W]hat at first sight appears to be a new Russian military buildup on the Ukrainian border should instead be viewed as a continuation of last spring's (March–April) buildup. Many of the units involved in the initial spring buildup remained in the Ukrainian border area of operations and have redeployed to new sites,” reads the analysis published Thursday, obtained and first reported on by NatSec Daily. “Russia has begun deploying new forces, including some of its best equipped and trained units, to the border area, to sites well outside of their normal training areas close to the border.”

What’s more, in the spring Russia was more open about its movements, for example transferring large amounts of equipment on trains in broad daylight — making it easy for the U.S. and others to track it all. That’s not the case today: “Multiple trains carrying equipment appear to have moved during the night, likely in an attempt to minimise sightings. Equipment also appears to be deploying at a much slower rate and — generally — to more, smaller camps.”

“With heavy equipment forward deployed, Russia would be able to deploy troops by train or aircraft quickly and covertly,” the report continues. But even if Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN doesn’t authorize a renewed invasion soon, he has shown a desire to “leave large quantities of equipment out of position for several months over Ukraine and may choose to do the same now, meaning this pressure on Kyiv can essentially become the new normal.”

The report also goes into a lot of detail about where certain Russian military units are positioned. The 1st Guards Tank Army’s 2nd Motorized Division has been in the Kursk region since at least Oct. 26, joined by at least one battalion tactical group from the 6th Combined Army’s 138th Motorized Brigade, which has 2S3 self-propelled howitzers (SPH) and T-72B3 main battle tanks (MBT).

The largest garrison created during this new buildup is north of the town of Yelnya in the Smolensk region on the grounds of a military base. There the Russians have 700 MBTs, SPHs and infantry fighting vehicles in addition to Iskander ballistic missile launchers. “These units include elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army's 74th and 35th Motorised Brigades, 120th Artillery Brigade, and 119th Missile Brigade, as well as limited elements of the 90th Tank Division's 6th Tank Regiment,” the analysis reads.

There’s now also a large concentration of forces in Crimea, the peninsula Russia took by force in 2014. Since October, the contingent has included “elements of the 247th Airborne Regiment, at least one 42nd Motorised Division T-72B3 battalion, a Buk-M2 battalion likely from the 90th Air Defence Brigade, and a 34th Motorised Brigade (Mountain) battalion tactical group.”

And Janes found some “anomalous movements,” namely the presence of the Black Sea Fleet ground units close to Ukraine’s border which is “not a typical training location for its forces.”

Put together, it makes sense why there’s more worry about this troop buildup than the one in the spring. The question now is if President JOE BIDEN and his Western counterparts scared Putin enough from activating them.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is concerned. “There are not sufficient military resources for repelling a full-scale attack by Russia if it begins without the support of Western forces,” Gen. KYRYLO BUDANOV , chief of his nation’s military intelligence service, told the New York Times’ MICHAEL SCHWIRTZ on Thursday.

And the Associated Press' ELLEN KNICKMEYER, MATTHEW LEE and NOMAAN MERCHANT report that "Administration officials have suggested that the U.S. will press Ukraine to formally cede a measure of autonomy to eastern Ukrainian lands now controlled by Russia-backed separatists who rose up against Kyiv in 2014." White House press secretary JEN PSAKI called the contents of the AP report "absolutely false" in a press briefing Thursday afternoon.

The Inbox

BIDEN SOUNDS DIRE AT DEMOCRACY SUMMIT: Kicking off his much-anticipated virtual Summit for Democracy on Thursday morning, Biden warned scores of fellow world leaders that “we stand at an inflection point in history” — describing the preservation of democracy as “an urgent matter on all our parts” and “the defining challenge of our time.”

He also made some news, announcing a Presidential Initiative for Democratic Renewal that will direct more than $424 million in U.S. funding toward efforts aimed at “supporting free and independent media,” “fighting corruption,” “bolstering democratic reformers,” “advancing technology for democracy,” and “defending free and fair elections and political processes,” per the White House.

And just a couple of days after speaking with Putin, the American president had some harsh words for autocrats abroad. Those strongmen, Biden said, “seek to advance their own power, export and expand their influence around the world, and justify their repressive policies and practices as a more efficient way to address today’s challenges. That’s how it’s sold by voices that seek to fan the flames of social division and political polarization.”

Read more from Quint here.

BIDEN MOSTLY CONTINUING TRUMP’S NUKE POLICY? Biden appears set to raise the threshold on the use of nuclear weapons — but not all the way back after a lowering by former President DONALD TRUMP.

The Financial Times’ DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO reports that Biden took “no first use” off the table, but aides will soon present him with options for a “sole purpose” policy. “One variation of ‘sole purpose’ mentioned to allies would be to declare that the US would retain the option to use nuclear weapons to deter not just nuclear attacks but also non-nuclear ‘existential threats,’ which could include big attacks with conventional, chemical or biological weapons,” he wrote.

That echoes Trump’s nuclear policy, which lowered the threshold on the use of nuclear weapons for incidents like a major cyberattack. But Biden is proposing the threshold rise above that, though it's unclear what exactly defines as an "existential threat."

Biden has yet to make a final decision, U.S. officials and analysts say, and the review is expected to come out early next year. It’s therefore possible that Biden will change course from what the report describes.

BIDEN’S SELECTIVE SANCTIONS: The Biden administration has been unveiling batches of sanctions throughout this week as it promotes the Summit for Democracy. Today, in addition to unveiling new sanctions and visa bans, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said his department will name a “coordinator on global anti-corruption” — an idea that’s been in the works in some form for months, as our own NAHAL TOOSI reported in March.

The economic sanctions for the most part target individuals under the Global Magnitsky Act. Toosi points out that, like the Trump administration, Biden aides are being selective about whom they target. They tend to go after people in countries that are not all that vital to U.S. interests. In other words, easy targets, like people in Angola, Nicaragua or South Sudan.

With that as the general rule, you would think Equatorial Guinea’s vice president would make the list. TEODORO NGUEMA OBIANG MANGUE, who also is the son of the country’s dictator, is so infamous… honestly, there isn’t enough space here. But, as just one example, the U.S. sued him over his alleged illicit proceeds in a case involving MICHAEL JACKSON memorabilia.

But we also recently learned that China is thinking of opening a military base in Equatorial Guinea. That has so worried the Biden administration that it sent principal deputy national security adviser JON FINER to sweet-talk the country’s leaders to reject China’s plan. Finer and his delegation gave their hosts a gift of — yes, this happened — a silver platter. Presumably, it held a promise of no sanctions anytime soon.

PAST FOES HAUNT BIDEN’S FORPOL: Even as Biden aims to shift American foreign policy to handle future threats, adversaries from yesteryear have put those plans on holds, our own JONATHAN LEMIRE observes.

“[T]he administration has had to contend with the world it inherited, a challenge underscored this week when it was forced to address saber-rattling by a longtime foe, Vladimir Putin. Putin’s emboldened aggression prompted Biden to stage a virtual meeting with his Russian counterpart in an effort to de-escalate the growing tensions at the Ukraine border,” he wrote.

Lemire continued that the withdrawal from Afghanistan “created harrowing images of violence and fear that shook the faith of allies and Americans alike in the administration’s competence. Efforts to restart the Iran nuclear deal, scuttled by Biden’s predecessor, are on the verge of collapse. And the emergence of a new Covid-19 variant that quickly raced around the globe underscored that the pandemic was as much of a national security crisis as a health one, restarting loud cries for the U.S. to step to the forefront in the effort to vaccinate the world.”

NatSec Daily is old enough to remember how former President BARACK OBAMA’s “pivot to Asia” never panned out, or how intervention skeptic GEORGE W. BUSH launched the Iraq War and global war on terror in response to the 9/11 attacks.

“You sometimes get to shape your agenda,” Council on Foreign Relations President RICHARD HAASS told Lemire, “but sometimes others get to shape it.”

U.S. MOVES TO REINFORCE SANCTIONS ON IRAN: As talks to return the United States into the Iran nuclear deal sputter, the Biden administration has opted to tighten its enforcement of sanctions on Tehran.

Next week, U.S. officials will travel to the United Arab Emirates — Iran’s second-highest trading partner — to “meet with petrochemicals companies and other private firms and banks,” The Wall Street Journal’s LAURENCE NORMAN reported. They will warn that the U.S. has “visibility on transactions that are not compliant with sanctions,“ a senior official told him. ”Those banks and firms face extreme risk if this continues.” If they don’t comply, it’s possible the U.S. will sanction those entities.

It’s another indicator of just how poorly the nuclear talks in Vienna are going. U.S. officials and analysts we’ve talked to remain pessimistic that there will be a positive outcome — meaning a move to a Plan B might soon be in the works.

Per Reuters’ PHIL STEWART on Thursday, the U.S. and Israeli defense chiefs planned to discuss military exercises centering around destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, should such a mission be required.

THE 100TH NATSEC DAILY! Hey, it’s our 100th edition. Thanks for being a friend and hanging out with us for so long. We received some lovely feedback last night and hope to keep hearing about how we fit into your day. Never hesitate to reach out and let us know what more we should be doing.

In the meantime, your host would like to thank Quint for his tireless efforts, fantastic demeanor and excellent reporting; our amazing producers KAITLYN LOCKE and SETOTA HAILEMARIAM for making the newsletter look good and keeping us from making silly errors; and our editors BEN PAUKER and JOHN YEARWOOD for their guidance and trust (and their edits). It takes a village, and we love ours.

IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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Flashpoints

U.N. SUSPENDS FOOD AID IN 2 ETHIOPIAN TOWNS: The United Nations-run World Food Program ended food distribution in two northern Ethiopian towns after Tigray rebels held staffers at gunpoint to loot warehouses, the BBC reported citing a U.N. spokesperson.

“Looters from rebel Tigrayan forces held aid staff at gunpoint in the town of Kombolcha, the United Nations said,” reads the BBC’s story. “They stole large quantities of essential food supplies — including some for malnourished children.”

Staffers had been facing “extreme intimidation,” the spokesperson continued, adding that “such harassment of humanitarian staff by armed forces is unacceptable. It undermines the ability of the United Nations and all of our humanitarian partners to deliver assistance when it is most needed."

Northern Ethiopia, in addition to much of the country, is facing mass starvation and relies on food aid for sustenance. The continuing war is only making that crisis worse.

Keystrokes

NEW DOD DIGITAL AND AI CHIEF: Our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report that the Pentagon will soon create the post of chief digital and artificial intelligence officer.

This person will be “responsible for integrating emerging technologies,” per a senior Pentagon official, and one of their first jobs will be to create a “tech stack,” or a list of technology services used to build and run a single application.

“The Pentagon already has a chief data officer, a Defense Digital Service and the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center. But the new position, which will be effective Feb. 1, is needed to integrate all these efforts. It was also one of the recommendations of the National Security Commission on AI,” our MD friends noted.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

The Complex

TOP MARINE WANTS DRONE ‘MOTHERSHIPS’: Our MD pals also reported that Gen. DAVID BERGER, the Marine Corps commandant, is thinking about how to turn some Navy amphibious ships into “motherships” for unmanned vessels and aircraft.

“There’s nothing like that right now,” he told reporters at the Reagan National Defense Forum over the weekend. “If you’re going to have things swimming around underwater, but are talking back to the ship, the ship wasn’t built for that.”

“We have some thinking to do,” he added. “But it’s all possible.”

Berger also wants to buy several dozen light amphibious warships that can carry about 100 Marines to small islands in the Pacific. But he seemed dubious that the money will materialize, given the “big bills they have to pay that we can’t kick down the road anymore.”

On the Hill

TOM’S TEAM STRIKES BACK: Wednesday’s top story was an interview with Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.) in which he explained his “no” vote on the National Defense Authorization Act. He said two senators — JAMES INHOFE (R-Okla.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republicans respectively on the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees — stripped out provisions in conference aimed at countering authoritarianism and protecting human rights.

Aides for the lawmakers denied the charge, adding that the measures Malinowski touted faced some opposition and would have jeopardized swift passage of the behemoth bill.

NAREE KETUDAT, the communications director in Malinowski’s office, fired back at the denials in a statement to NatSec Daily:

“Why would a report on harassment of Americans by foreign governments jeopardize swift passage? Why would a simple determination on if mass killings, sexual violence and ethnic cleansing are occurring in Ethiopia jeopardize swift passage? Why would a simple acknowledgement by [the Department of Justice] that they’ve received allegations of war crimes jeopardize swift passage? Why would a sanctions review of the 35 cronies that facilitate Putin’s repression and poisoning of political opponents jeopardize swift passage? Why would a measure keeping known murderers from entering the United States jeopardize swift passage? A proposal passed two congresses on an overwhelmingly bipartisan basis.”

The frustration in the New Jersey lawmaker’s office, as the kids say, is real real.

PROGRESSIVES’ PENTAGON POUNDING: Our own ANDREW DESIDERIO and CONNOR O’BRIEN report how progressives barely put their stamp on Pentagon policy this go-round.

“Bipartisan provisions requiring women to register for the draft, cracking down on Saudi Arabia and imposing sanctions on Russia were nixed; legislation repealing outdated Iraq war authorizations fell by the wayside; reforms to the military justice system and efforts to combat extremism in the ranks were pared back; and a proposal to give Washington, D.C., control of its National Guard was dropped,” they wrote. “Democrats hold power in the House, Senate and White House for the first time in more than a decade, yet the high-profile defense bill got more GOP votes than from Biden’s own party. As progressive lawmakers made their dissatisfaction with the bill's high price tag clear, centrist Democrats knew they needed Republican support to pass the House and Senate.”

Progressives truly felt they had a historic chance to turn their priorities into policy, but the realities of a 50-50 Senate with no filibuster made that near impossible. And with midterms next year, it’s likely they missed their best chance.

Broadsides

'DANGEROUS, OUTDATED, AND OVERSTRETCHED': A coalition of 18 advocacy groups are urging congressional leaders to hold a vote on repealing the 2002 Iraq War authorization "as soon as possible" after negotiators left the war powers measure out of the final defense policy bill set to become law soon,” O’Brien reports.

"Much work has been done to rescind this dangerous, outdated, and overstretched authorization, both by activists across the country and by bipartisan majorities in both chambers of Congress," the groups wrote in a letter to House and Senate leaders in both parties. "We have an opportunity to secure an important, historic win that helps get Congress back in the business of upholding its constitutional mandate to decide when and where our nation goes to war."

The letter was organized by the Friends Committee on National Legislation.

Repealing the outdated Iraq AUMF has gained bipartisan momentum in both chambers. The House has already voted to repeal the legislation. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER vowed to hold a floor vote this year, though the chamber's year-end legislative rush may delay that push.

Transitions

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: IRVIN MCCULLOUGH will join the German Marshall Fund as a press officer, heading up the think tank’s American media relations. He’s currently the deputy director of legislation and a national security analyst at the Government Accountability Project.

— GORDON GRAY is now a professor of practice at the Penn State School of International Affairs. He most recently was chief operating officer at the Center for American Progress and formerly was a career diplomat.

DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

What to Read

— NIGEL GOULD-DAVIES, Foreign Policy: “Biden Must Choose Between Appeasement and Deterrence in Ukraine”

— CRAIG SINGLETON, The Foundation for Defense of Democracies: “ The Middle Kingdom Meets Higher Education: How U.S. Universities Support China’s Military-Industrial Complex”

— POLITICO Magazine: “Biden Wants to Save Global Democracy. Here’s What He Can Actually Do.”

Tomorrow Today

— Day two of Biden’s Summit for Democracy: Featuring remarks by METTE FREDERIKSEN, ANTÓNIO GUTERRES, SAMANTHA POWER, ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER, LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD and more.

— Blinken arrives in the United Kingdom: He will travel to Liverpool from Dec. 10-12 to attend the G7 Foreign and Development Ministers’ Meeting, per the State Department. His hop across the pond is the first leg of a longer trip that will take the secretary to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Hawaii until Dec. 17.

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: “ Is the U.S. Safer Without the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty? — with MARIANO-FLORENTINO ‘TINO’ CUÉLLAR, ROSE GOTTEMOELLER and STEPHEN J. HADLEY”

— The Cato Institute, 11 a.m.: “French Ambassador PHILIPPE ÉTIENNE on the Meaning of European Defense — with PETER GOETTLER, JUSTIN LOGAN, RACHEL RIZZO and JOSHUA SHIFRINSON”

— AFCEA International, 11:30 a.m.: “U.S. Department of the Air Force Software Ecosystem — with KAITLIN BULAVINETZ”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

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