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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | With help from Andrew Desiderio and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint
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Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to the media during a joint news conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban following their talks in the Kremlin in Moscow. | Yuri Kochetkov/Pool Photo via AP Photo | Any time NatSec Daily speaks to officials in the United States or Europe, we hear the same thing: No one knows exactly what Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is thinking or if he’s made the decision to invade Ukraine. But today, for the first time since December, the Kremlin boss gave the world a peek into his mind — his unhappy mind. "Russian concerns were basically ignored. We didn't see an adequate response to our key concerns: non-expanse of NATO, the refusal to deploy [an] offensive weapon next to the Russian borders and bringing back the military infrastructure of the alliance to the status quo of 1997, when the Russia-NATO treaty was signed," Putin said about the Biden administration’s written responses to his concerns about Ukraine and broader European security. “The United States, they don't care that much about Ukrainian security. Maybe they think about it. But it's a secondary priority for them. But their main job is to deter the development of Russia, to hinder the development of Russia. And in this sense, Ukraine is just a tool." Standing alongside Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN , Putin accused the Biden administration of “pulling [Russia] into some armed conflict and then forcing their allies in Europe to enact those harsh sanctions against us that are being discussed today in the United States,” he continued during a news conference. Putin’s comments rehashed what his aides, namely Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV, have said in recent days. But Putin making these statements is as authoritative as it gets — and that’s troubling. We can’t find a single American or European official who privately is confident that Russia won’t invade Ukraine. All note there’s still a chance diplomacy could work and that maximum effort will be put into that dialogue, but no one is willing to say outright that Putin will pull his more than 100,000 troops off Ukraine’s border soon. Recall that President JOE BIDEN predicted that Putin would at some point re-invade Ukraine, perhaps as early as this month. Whether it’s theater or not, the Kremlin seethes about the situation behind the scenes. In a letter delivered to the U.S. and European nations this week, Lavrov questioned the tenets of Euro-Atlantic security as defined by the 1999 “ Istanbul Document ” of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, per multiple U.S. and European officials who’ve seen it. They described Lavrov’s prose as meandering as he tried to poke holes in what he claimed were contradictory statements in the 1999 document. Lavrov previewed that he would send such a missive last Friday, as our own DAVID HERSZENHORN noted at the time. However, no one provided NatSec Daily with text from Lavrov’s letter or what he precisely said. State Department spokesperson NED PRICE confirmed from the podium that what Russia sent wasn't their formal response to America's stances. "We heard again that they are working on a formal response to the U.S. non-paper that was sent over the other day. That draft will go to President Putin, as we have known and expected all along. And when President Putin has a chance to review it and approve it, it will be coming to the United States. We understand that once that takes place, the Russians, too, are willing to engage in continued dialogue," he said. But based on Putin’s comments, it seems we already have our answer.
| | | | DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | | | | ESTONIAN PM CALLS FOR ‘STRATEGIC PATIENCE’ WITH PUTIN: Estonian Prime Minister KAJA KALLAS said that the West needs “strategic patience” if it’s to successfully counter Putin. “They use this old Soviet type of negotiation tactics,” Kallas, who became Estonia's first femel prime minister last year, told our own RYAN HEATH and Herszenhorn. “First, demand the maximum, demand something that has never belonged to you. Then second, present ultimatums. And third: [They] do not give one inch in the negotiations, because there will always be people in the West who will negotiate and give you something that you didn't have before.” Should Russia overstep and renew its invasion of Ukraine, Kallas said Europeans and the U.S. should prepare to wait years to see the effects of sanctions work and potentially alter Putin’s behavior. “No country in the world wants to be isolated,” she added. The Estonian and broader Baltic positions on Russia were once seen in Brussels as Russophobic, but now the view is more mainstream on the continent. Putin’s actions have turned Europe into a harder Russian opponent. STATE ORDERS DEPARTURE FROM BELARUS EMBASSY:The State Department on Monday evening ordered the families of staffers at the U.S. Embassy in Belarus to depart and warned Americans not to travel to the country. “Due to an increase in unusual and concerning Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine, U.S. citizens located in or considering travel to Belarus should be aware that the situation is unpredictable and there is heightened tension in the region,” State’s bulletin reads . “On January 31, 2022, the Department of State ordered the departure of family members of U.S. government employees.” It’s another sign that the Biden administration is worried about the outbreak of war in Ukraine and wants to give U.S. citizens ample time to get out — and stay out — of Belarus. IRAN DEAL CLOSE? The New York Times reports that the United States is close to reentering the 2015 Iran nuclear deal it left four years ago, though America’s return depends on Tehran’s willingness to dismantle its nuclear advances. “Now is the time for Iran to decide whether it’s prepared to make those decisions,” a U.S. official told DAVID SANGER, LARA JAKES and FARNAZ FASSIHI. “Administration officials cautioned that it was not clear whether a final agreement would be struck, and in Iran that decision is bound to go to the supreme leader, Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI. And while some remain deeply skeptical that Iran would ultimately agree to the terms now being discussed, the State Department official said that ‘we can see a path to a deal if those decisions are made and if they are made quickly,’” they wrote. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
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The Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) will enable the U.S. to hold fixed, high-value, time-sensitive targets at risk in contested environments from stand-off distances. Learn more. | | | | | | MYANMAR COUP ANNIVERSARY: Today is the one-year anniversary of when Myanmar’s military launched a coup against the civilian-led government of AUNG SAN SUU KYI, ending the nation’s 10-year push toward a more democratic country. Many of Myanmar’s streets were empty Tuesday as thousands participated in “ silent strikes” against the junta. Meanwhile, the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on junta leaders to mark the solemn occasion. “The regime has perpetrated countless brutal actions and committed unspeakable violence against civilians, including children. More than 1,500 people have been killed. Thousands have been unjustly detained or subjected to sham trials. Corruption is rampant. Civil conflict has worsened. The coup has caused immense suffering across Burma and undermined regional stability, while the leaders of the regime and their supporters seek to profit off the chaos they have created. And though millions across Burma are in desperate need of life-saving aid, the regime denies humanitarian access and attacks aid workers,” Biden said in a statement. Despite international condemnation, experts fear that the military dictatorship will last long into the future. “I see little reason not to think that there will be military rule for the long term,” said DARIN SELF , an expert on Myanmar’s junta who will soon join Brigham Young University. “It seems clear that they have reverted back to a hardline approach to governing. Just in the past two weeks they've used military tribunals to sentence pro-democracy advocates and members of the NLD [National League of Democracy, Suu Kyi’s party] to death. That, along with the violent response to protests and the ethnic militias shows that they have little tolerance for any form of dissent.” COUP IN GUINEA-BISSAU? There’s heavy gunfire around the presidential palace in Guinea-Bissau, The Guardian is reporting, raising concerns that a coup is underway in the West African country. “Videos of armed men with automatic rifles and rocket-propelled grenades were shared on social media, and the state broadcaster reported that ‘invaders’ were holding government officials,” The Guardian noted. If confirmed, it would be the second regional coup in as many weeks after the seizure of power in Burkina Faso last week. ECOWAS, the West African regional bloc, said in a statement that it’s “following with great concern the evolution of the situation.”
| | | U.S. CYBER OFFICIAL SETS OFF FOR EUROPE: ANNE NEUBERGER, deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, will travel to Europe today to help strengthen Ukrainian cyber defenses against a potential Russian invasion, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). Neuberger first will visit Brussels to meet with both European Union officials and NATO’s North Atlantic Council to discuss ways to discourage Russian cyberattacks against Ukraine, the United States and EU, and NATO nations. She’ll then head to Warsaw to meet with Polish and Baltic nation cybersecurity officials. U.S. officials have warned that cyberattacks “are almost certain to play a critical role for Russia as part of any potential invasion,” Miller writes, and critical infrastructure in the United States “may also face cyberattacks from Russia if the Biden administration responds to an invasion of Ukraine by levying economically crippling sanctions on Moscow.”
| | | DEFENSE CONTRACTORS ASK LAWMAKERS FOR R&D TAX BREAKS:Some of the largest and most profitable weapons makers are pushing members of Congress to grant them tax breaks for research and development purposes. “A new tax policy that took effect this year no longer allows companies to immediately deduct their R&D costs, sunsetting a temporary provision included in Republican-backed tax legislation enacted in 2017. The change will require firms to gradually write off their expenses over five years, unless it is reversed to return to the first-year deduction policy,” our own LEE HUDSON, CONNOR O’BRIEN, and AARON LORENZO reported (for Pros!). “CFOs of defense companies voiced their concerns about the expiring tax break during recent fourth quarter earnings calls with investors.” Northrop Grumman said it will pay $1 billion in more taxes, while Raytheon Technologies expected to cough up $2 billion. Lockheed Martin said it expects to have $500 million less on hand for operations this year. From the Of Course department: “Four out of the five largest defense contractors paid outside firms to lobby for an R&D tax provision in Build Back Better in the fourth quarter of 2021.”
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BILL TO BAN TALIBAN BANK ACCOUNTS: Rep. JAKE AUCHINCLOSS (D-Mass.), vice chair of the House Financial Services Committee and a Marine veteran who served in Afghanistan, is announcing a new measure that aims to monitor Afghan financial institutions for potential money laundering on behalf of the Taliban. The Treasury secretary already is authorized under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act to require domestic financial agencies or institutions to take various “special measures” against suspected money laundering entities. But Auchincloss’ bill — called the “ No Bank Accounts for Terrorists Act” — would empower Treasury itself to take those measures against accounts in connection with Afghan illicit finance. “Afghanistan is in crisis. The United States has a responsibility to support humanitarian relief, in the short run, and economic development, in the long run,” Auchincloss told us in a statement, adding: “In order to pursue humanitarian and economic programs with confidence that the monies will not be funneled towards narco-terror activities, the United States must inhibit illicit financing by the Taliban.”
| | | |   | | | JACOBS DETAILS UKRAINE CODEL: Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) recently returned from a bipartisan congressional delegation to Ukraine in which she met with President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, among others. NatSec Daily caught up with the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committee member to get a sense of what was discussed. The lawmaker said assessments about the threat Russia poses to Ukraine are the same in both Washington and Kyiv, despite recent statements by Ukrainian officials — including the president — that the U.S. hyped the challenge. In the meantime, Jacobs and her cohort heard from the Ukrainians that they want more economic support, weaponry, cyber enhancements and other protective items like helmets. Jacobs is also skeptical of sanctioning Russia ahead of a new incursion, echoing concerns shared by the Biden administration and congressional progressives. She hinted that she may not vote for a bipartisan Senate bill on Russian sanctions in development if it mandates pre-invasion penalties. However, she opened the door to okaying it if there are other items in the measure she could support. Still, she made sure to assert, “we have to be clear about what we’re going to accomplish with the sanctions. Any sanctions that hurt everyday, regular people are just pushing people closer to the targeted government’s policies.” RUSSIA SANCTIONS BILL STILL IN AIR: The bipartisan Senate group cobbling together a comprehensive Russia-Ukraine bill is close to an agreement but remains hung up on two key provisions, senators told our own ANDREW DESIDERIO. According to Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), aides are still going back and forth over Nord Stream 2 sanctions as well the specific penalties that might be imposed before a Russian invasion. Both of these are Republicans’ priorities in these talks — and there are indications that Democrats are bending ever so slightly on their original approach, which was to dangle the more devastating sanctions as a punishment for after an invasion. It’s still unclear where the Biden administration will come down. Menendez acknowledged that the White House is “not enthralled” with the pre-invasion sanctions, but said he has “suggested to them that a strong bipartisan response is something that strengthens their hand and they should be open to it.” Menendez’s GOP counterpart atop the panel, Sen. JIM RISCH of Idaho, says he remains optimistic that they’ll get a product over the finish line. As we told you last week, the final package will likely include a bipartisan provision to set up a lend-lease program for Ukraine. Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) told Desiderio last night that it’s “not controversial” among the eight members of the group, which encompasses a wide array of foreign-policy ideologies. Such a program, of course, would allow the U.S. to send weapons and other supplies to Ukraine with the promise of repayment later. As a reminder, the last time this happened was during World War II. “Putin is resurrecting a World War II-era threat, so we might as well resurrect a World War II-era program,” Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), who was just on a congressional delegation to Ukraine, told us. Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL said GOP senators discussed the status of the negotiations “at length” at their lunch meeting today and laid out his position like so: “My view remains that sanctions after the incursion are less effective than sanctions before. … Send the Ukrainians weapons they can fight with — anti-tank weaponry, ground-to-air missiles. Give them a chance to inflict some real damage on the Russians if in fact they come in.” He’s also calling on Biden to boost U.S. and NATO troop presence in Poland and the Baltic countries.
| | | HFAC RM HITS BIDEN OVER COMPETES ACT DOC: Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, took the unusual step of releasing the White House’s “Statement of Administration Policy” on the China-focused COMPETES Act because it doesn’t feature the word “China” in it. "It's disgraceful the @WhiteHouse Statement of Administration Policy on the bill @SpeakerPelosi claims is a counter #China bill doesn't even contain the word China. This is proof #COMPETES is not a serious effort to combat the generational threat posed by the CCP,” McCaul tweeted from the party’s committee Twitter account. In fairness to Biden, in a January statement in support of the bill , he said, “Together, we have an opportunity to show China and the rest of the world that the 21st century will be the American century — forged by the ingenuity and hard work of our innovators, workers, and businesses.” NatSec Daily keeps hearing rumblings of discontent from Republicans about the way Democrats announced the measure last week, and even from some progressives who say their concerns aren’t addressed by the new bill. We’ll keep our ears to the ground on this.
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At Lockheed Martin, customer focus, innovation and purpose are built into everything we do. Every mission is an expedition of the greatest importance: both to you, and to us. Learn more. | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY:WILLIAM RICH , a former U.S. Treasury and Intelligence Community official, has joined Citibank as chief sanctions officer for emerging markets. He will lead a global team conducting Citi’s sanctions compliance efforts in Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, the Middle East, Pakistan and Africa. He most recently was managing director for Middle East and Africa at risk data fintech company Kharon. — DREW MYKLEGARD is now associate deputy federal chief information officer at the Office of Management and Budget. He most recently was executive director of product engineering at the Department of Veterans Affairs. EILEEN VIDRINE is now senior strategic adviser for data to the federal chief information officer. She most recently was chief data officer at the Air Force. — TRASAN MOORE is now the utilities and subsystems lead in the F-35 Joint Program Office at the Defense Department. She most recently was supporting the office as a contractor. — TOM BRADY, seven-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback, is retiring from the NFL. (Yes, one of us is a Patriots fan…..It’s Alex…..)
| | | — PATRICK HOWELL O’NEILL, MIT Technology Review: “ Meet the NSA Spies Shaping the Future” — BEN HUBBARD and AMY QIN, The New York Times: “ As the U.S. Pulls Back From the Mideast, China Leans In” — SUDARSAN RAGHAVAN, The Washington Post: “ A Popular Uzbek Commander Fought for the Taliban for More Than Two Decades. He Was Arrested Anyway.”
| | | — POLITICO’s China Watcher, 9 a.m.: “ Beijing Olympics: Competition, Controversy and Covid — with JEFF MERKLEY, SOPHIE RICHARDSON, MELISSA CHAN, NOAH HOFFMAN and PHELIM KINE” — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: “ Cyber Activism: The Secret Role of Elves in Countering Hybrid Operations — with DANIEL HEGEDUS, ADELA KLECKOVA and NAD'A KOVALCIKOVA — House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing:the Dynamic Terrorism Landscape and What It Means for America — with JONATHAN GREENBLATT, CYNTHIA MILLER-IDRISS, NICHOLAS J. RASMUSSEN and BILL ROGGIO” — House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: Securing High-Demand Jobs for Veterans” — Senate Armed Services Committee and Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: “ U.S. Policy on Afghanistan — with LLOYD AUSTIN and ANTONY BLINKEN” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: “ Friends With Strategic Benefits: Decoding the Putin-Xi Summit — with ERICA DOWNS, EVAN FEIGENBAUM, ALEXANDER GABUEV and ANDREW S. WEISS” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: “ How Do States Seek the Bomb? — with FIONA CUNNINGHAM, ELIZA GHEORGHE, ARIEL ‘ELI’ LEVITE and VIPIN NARANG” — The U.S. Representative Office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, 11 a.m.: “ NCRI-US To Unveil IRGC Quds Force’s Proxy Naval Terror Structure” — Axios, 12:30 p.m.: “ The Outlook for Cybersecurity in 2022 — with JIM LANGEVIN and SUZANNE SPAULDING” — Senate Intelligence Committee, 2 p.m.: “ Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters” — The SETA Foundation at Washington, D.C., 2 p.m.: “ Ukraine Crisis: Implications for the International System and U.S. Leadership — with KILIC KANAT, CHARLES KUPCHAN, STEVEN PIFER and KADIR USTUN” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: “ Ukraine in Crisis — with JOHN J. HAMRE, SETH G. JONES, ROB PORTMAN and JEANNE SHAHEEN”
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