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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Sen. Todd Young speaks during a press conference on February 16, 2022 in Washington, D.C. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | With help from Ben Lefebvre, Lee Hudson, Maggie Miller, Daniel Lippman and Andrew Desiderio Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) thinks there’s a filibuster-proof majority of senators willing to back crushing sanctions on Russia’s energy sector — a step President JOE BIDEN and his European counterparts have so far refused to take. “I'd be shocked if there weren't 51 United States senators” in favor, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee member told NatSec Daily in an interview today. “Frankly, I'd be surprised if there weren't 60 senators that didn't think some sort of sanctioning of Russia's energy sector made sense.” The Biden administration has been reluctant to impose costs on Russia’s most lucrative industry, namely because it could increase costs for Americans and enrich Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. “Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit. And as we have said repeatedly on the record, on background [and] off the record, our sanctions are designed to harm Russia’s economy, not ours,” a senior administration official told us just last week. Biden, however, reiterated his stance today that “no option is off the table” when it comes to sanctioning Russia. The only option he refuses to consider is putting U.S. troops directly into the fight, though he’s shown no reticence about flowing weaponry and other aid to Ukrainian forces. But it seems members from both parties in the Senate might now place pressure on Biden to hit Russia where it most hurts. Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) will introduce a bill to ban Russian oil and fuel from entering the U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) has already indicated he would back the measure. Separately, Young is calling on SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) to hold hearings on the viability of Russian-energy sanctions. “This, of course, is something important enough that we ought to be holding some extensive hearings to identify the specific implications this will have on our own markets and on rank-and-file Americans,” the former Marine told us. “But, look, I think most Americans understand that we can't be funding regimes that are hostile to our own national security and that don't exhibit our values.” It’s unclear, though, if Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER would put any measure on the floor for a vote without most Democrats and the White House behind it. One lobbyist familiar with Manchin’s plans said "Schumer wants to move something on this very quickly,” and Schumer himself did say that he was expecting a copy of the Manchin-Murkowski bill. Young suggested there’s more the U.S. could do to strengthen its hand during this crisis. Among his suggestions: increase the domestic production of oil and gas; spend more on defense and advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing; harden the public and private sector’s cyber defenses; and shore up America’s alliances, though he said the administration has done well on this specific front. How the U.S. and its partners around the world respond to this crisis matters, he said, because China still looms large and continues to threaten Taiwan. For the moment, Young argues China is learning the lesson that the West will respond resolutely to illegal attempts to topple another government. But, he continued, “we could reinforce that lesson by taking some other measures to shore up Taiwan,” such as authorizing more sales of anti-ship missiles “so that we can ensure that they are a porcupine that will be difficult for the Chinese Communist Party to consume, just as we are going to great lengths to ensure that Ukraine is a porcupine that will be difficult for the Russian snake to digest.”
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — 498 Russian troops have died in the war to date while 1,597 sustained injuries ( Russian Ministry of Defense) — Ukraine shot down two Russian Su-35C warplanes in an air battle at night on March 1. Ukraine lost one MiG-29 in the fight. ( Ukraine Ministry of Defense) — Russian troops remain stalled outside of Kyiv, not much movement in last 24 hours ( senior U.S. defense official) — New Bayraktar TB2 drones have arrived in Ukraine and will soon be followed by more Stingers and Javelins ( Ukrainian defense minister) — Nearly 875,000 Ukrainians have fled the country since the war began a week ago, with more than 450,000 of them arriving in Poland (U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees) — More than 2,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed since the war began (Ukrainian emergency service) Global Response: — Volunteers: More than 1,000 people from 16 countries are on their way to Ukraine to fight Russia (Ukrainian minister of foreign affairs) BIDEN OFFICIALS REFLECT ON OBAMA’S RUSSIA SANCTIONS: Our own KATE DAVIDSON and VICTORIA GUIDA explain how the seeds of the latest U.S. financial penalties against Russia were planted back in 2014 — when Moscow seized Crimea and the people who currently are driving the Biden administration’s sanctions policy held more junior roles in the Obama administration. At the time, DALEEP SINGH, deputy national security adviser and deputy director of the National Economic Council, and PETER HARRELL , the National Security Council’s senior director for international economics and competitiveness, were at the center of the U.S. response to Russia. Deputy Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO was Obama’s deputy national security adviser for international economics. And ELIZABETH ROSENBERG, a former senior adviser to the Obama Treasury for sanctions, now is helping shape Biden’s policies as the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for terrorist financing. Among the lessons learned in the years since Russia’s takeover of Crimea, U.S. officials realized they needed to share more information with European allies in advance and to work together on aligning their reaction for maximum impact. “We were more resistant to doing that in the [Obama] administration, for all the obvious reasons of trying to protect sources and methods,” a senior Treasury official said about intelligence-sharing. “But being able to do that, to find a way to get the information to our friends and allies, was critical.” UNGA CONDEMNS RUSSIA: In a massive rebuke, the majority of the world’s United Nations members condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The final General Assembly vote ended with 141 countries voted in favor of the resolution, 35 abstained and five voted against it. The five: North Korea, Syria, Belarus, Eritrea and…wait, which one was it?...Oh yeah, Russia. It’s another example of how the Biden administration’s diplomacy — and the horrors of the invasion mixed with Ukraine’s popular resistance — has turned most of the world against Moscow. A few administration officials reached out to NatSec Daily to make that exact point, but none of them provided an answer to our question: Now what? EU SANCTIONS BELARUS OVER INVASION: The European Union sanctioned Belarus for assisting Russia in its war on Ukraine, our own CORY BENNETT reported. Per France , which holds the rotating E.U. presidency seat, the sanctions targets include “Belarusian officials and military involved in the Russian aggression against Ukraine” and “Certain sectors of the Belarusian economy, in particular the wood, steel and potash sectors.” Belarus allowed thousands of Russian troops to use its territory as a staging ground for the invasion and in recent days sent its forces into the country to back Moscow. “The latest EU sanctions come after the U.K. on Tuesday authorized its own initial tranche of penalties against Belarus over the support Minsk has given Moscow throughout its military build-up and subsequent attack on Ukraine. The U.S. last week also hit Belarus with its own penalties,” Bennett wrote.
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The F-35 provides unrivaled air combat superiority to the warfighter and supports high-paying, high-quality jobs for American workers in the innovation economy. More than half of U.S. based F-35 suppliers are small businesses. Learn more. | | | IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
| | | UKRAINE WAR COULD DEEPEN YEMEN CRISIS: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely deepen one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes in Yemen, Reuters reported today. The United Nations’ World Food Programme “said the Ukraine crisis is likely to further increase fuel and food prices, especially grains, in import-dependent Yemen where food costs have more than doubled in many areas in the past year. Russia and Ukraine account for about 29% of global wheat exports and interruption to that flow is pushing up global prices.” "People are now rushing to purchase, people are on alert, anticipating a crisis," said wholesaler MOHAMMED AL-NIMRI in Yemen's capital Sanaa. "They are taking, ten, twenty sacks." Saudi Arabia leads a U.S.-backed coalition against Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen. The seven-year war has left millions impoverished, starving and sick. Those suffering can ill afford any more complications to their limited rations. "We have no choice but to take food from the hungry to feed the starving," said DAVID BEASLEY, the World Food Program’s chief.
| | | RUSSIAN SATELLITE HACK? An international hacking group known as “Anonymous” early Wednesday claimed that affiliated group NB65 had hacked into the control center of Russian space agency Roscosmos to disable satellites used as part of the invasion of Ukraine, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. A Twitter account affiliated with Anonymous tweeted screenshots claiming to show satellites being shut down. The move came a week after Anonymous had vowed to target the Russian government in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine, and has since claimed to have taken down Russian government websites and hacked into Russian television channels to broadcast images from Ukraine, among other efforts. DMITRY ROGOZIN, the director general of Russian space agency Roscosmos, denied the hacking operation had been successful, tweeting Wednesday that “the information of these scammers and petty swindlers is not true. All our space activity control centers are operating normally.” But Rogozin seemed to hint that the hacking operation may have had some effect, with Reuters reporting that he told Russian reporting outlet Interfax on Wednesday that “offlining the satellites of any country is actually a casus belli, a cause for war.” TECH COMPANIES CRACK DOWN ON KREMLIN: Facing international outcry over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, social media giants are going beyond stopping Kremlin-backed media outlets from buying ads on Facebook and YouTube — now rolling out a flood of restrictions aimed at curbing Moscow’s use of the online world for political and military gain, per our own MARK SCOTT and REBECCA KERN. In hastily arranged Zoom calls soon after Russian forces entered Ukraine last week, executives at Google, Facebook and Twitter debated the pros and cons of banning media outlets with ties to the Russian government, as well as other misinformation with potential links to the Kremlin, according to six people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal meetings. By taking action against Russia, tech companies have adopted policies that could become the de facto norm for future conflicts. It “is quite a difficult balancing trick for us,” said NICK CLEGG, vice president of global affairs at Facebook’s parent Meta, adding: “We’re a company. We’re not a government. But we’re also aware that we’re in a completely unprecedented situation, and this is a highly exceptional and tragic state of affairs.”
| | | |   | | | SENATE PASSES CYBER INCIDENT REPORTING MANDATE: The Senate has approved a bill that would require a wide range of companies responsible for U.S. critical infrastructure to report cybersecurity incidents to the government, per our own ERIC GELLER (for Pros!). The bill also would kick-start an update of federal programs for protecting government networks and adopting cloud software. But the measure’s centerpiece program represents the most serious and sweeping private sector cybersecurity mandate in decades. The bill’s passage comes as the Biden administration and U.S. businesses prepare for a potential increase in Russian cyberattacks in response to retaliatory U.S. sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
| | | U.S. CONTRACTOR WOULD GIVE UKRAINE MIGS: Air USA , an Illinois-based defense contractor that provides tactical aircraft services to the military and foreign governments, would send its four MiG-29s to Ukraine at the U.S. government’s request, Air USA owner DON KIRLIN told our own LEE HUDSON. The company could send the first aircraft to Ukraine in less than one month. But the U.S. government has not contacted Air USA to send its Soviet-era fighters to Ukraine, Kirlin said. UKRAINE CRISIS IMPERILS ISS: Russian space agency Roscosmos says it has the authority to operate on the International Space Station for only two more years, and that it’s skeptical about extending the partnership amid U.S. sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine, per our own BRYAN BENDER. Russia’s retreat from the multinational project could be catastrophic for NASA and its other ISS partners, which are heavily dependent on Moscow for key sections of the orbiting laboratory and to carry out resupply, power generation and even boost the station’s altitude to prevent it from crashing to Earth. Although current and former NASA and administration officials and experts say the remaining space station partners — including the European, Japanese and Canadian space agencies — could keep the ISS going without Russia, it might not be worth the cost and effort.
| | | RUBIO TWEETS THROUGH UKRAINE CRISIS: While so-called “Gang of Eight” lawmakers tend to clam up during moments of global conflict, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) — the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee — has been a near-constant social media presence amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, per our own ANDREW DESIDERIO. Rubio has become a one-man intelligence crowdsourcer in recent days. On Tuesday alone, he tweeted three times with maps breaking down his observations of Russian military movements. And he volunteered last week that he wished he could say more about Putin’s mental state — suggesting he was aware of non-public U.S. assessments of the leader’s health. Although some critics are slamming his posts as irresponsible and unverified, Rubio maintains that everything he has tweeted came from public online sources. “[Americans] want to understand what our role in all of this is. … There’s a tremendous amount of interest in it for a variety of reasons, so to the extent we can provide that information in detail, I think it’s important just to rally support for Ukraine here in America,” he said. A senior Democratic Congressional aide last week did confirm what Rubio was tweeting was “consistent” with U.S. intelligence on the crisis
| | | UKRAINIAN LAWMAKER LABELS BIDEN’S SOTU ‘DISAPPOINTMENT’: OLEKSANDRA USTINOVA, a member of Ukraine’s parliament who spoke with House lawmakers this week, offered a scathing review of Biden’s first State of the Union address, telling NBC’s “Today” show that the president’s remarks were “a total disappointment” for Ukrainians tuning in from afar. “We had been promised protection by the international community. We gave up our nuclear weapons. And today, when I see President Biden saying that we’re going to protect every inch of the NATO territory, excuse me? We’ve been promised the same thing when we gave up our nuclear weapons,” Ustinova said. Ustinova stressed that although Ukrainians are “grateful” for the defensive and financial support offered thus far by the United States, “we need protection in our sky.” Specifically, she called on the West to enforce a no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace and to supply an Iron Dome air defense system to help protect against Russia’s assault. As for the efficacy of U.S. sanctions, Ustinova described the penalties as “a long-term tool that will bring the economy down,” adding: “If we need it fast, we need the basic protection of the sky now.” GOP AND VOLS UPSET AT SOTU: Republican leaders and volunteer groups helping to evacuate left-behind Afghans are upset Biden didn’t go in-depth on the end of the Afghanistan war. Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, tweeted he was “extremely disappointed and shocked” by the omission, further calling it “shameful” and evidence of Biden’s “apathy to the fate of Americans & Afghans still trapped in Afghanistan.” SCOTT MANN, who leads one of the many volunteer groups helping to rescue Afghans who served alongside the U.S. government in the war, also showed his displeasure. “Glad our President isn’t leaving anyone behind when it comes to COVID. Now about those Afghan Commandos…” he tweeted.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Who builds the unrivaled F-35? The unrivaled, high-tech American workforce.
The F-35 program invests in American workers, creates the jobs of the future, and advances the digital enterprise. Learn more. | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ANTIWAR GROUPS URGE ADMIN TO REVERSE AFG RESERVES EO: Nearly 50 humanitarian and antiwar groups urged Biden to reverse his executive order seizing billions in Afghanistan’s assets. “We write to ask that you prevent a catastrophe from unfolding in Afghanistan by urgently rescinding the recent executive order which splits the frozen reserves that are the property of the people of Afghanistan, designating half pending court action involving the families of the September 11th attacks and depositing the other half into a newly created humanitarian fund, rather than finding a safeguarded mechanism to return the Afghan people’s reserves through the infrastructure of Afghanistan’s Central Bank,” wrote the groups, including CODEPINK, Just Foreign Policy and Win Without War. As an alternative course, they recommend the administration rescind the order and release all the funds to the Afghan people, expand the use of World Bank and other funds to pay Afghan civil servants, and review U.S. sanctions on Afghanistan. Many of the same groups also wrote a letter to 44 Democrats who voted against an amendment by Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) to commission an assessment of the humanitarian impacts of U.S. sanctions and the asset freeze. “International aid organizations have warned that without urgent changes, U.S. sanctions and the freeze of $9.4 billion in Afghan Central Bank assets could contribute to a starvation crisis that will kill more Afghans than died in the past 20 years of war. Ninety-five percent of Afghans currently don’t have enough to eat. Almost 23 million Afghans — more than half of the country's population — are facing acute food insecurity. One million children are at risk of the most severe form of malnutrition and could die this winter,” they wrote
| | | — HANNAH SUH is now special adviser in the Office of the National Cyber Director at The White House. She is an alum of WestExec Advisors, the Center for a New American Security and the House Foreign Affairs committee.
| | | — DEREK THOMPSON, The Atlantic: “Russia’s Looming Economic Collapse” — ANDRIY YERMAK, The New York Times: “ Opinion: As I Write, President Zelensky Is Beside Me. Please, Help Us Show Putin the Mistake He Has Made.” — ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR and ERICA FRANTZ, Foreign Affairs: “The Beginning of the End for Putin?”
| | | — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN heads to Europe: He will travel to Belgium, Poland, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia from March 3-8. His trip “continues extensive consultations and coordination with our NATO Allies and European partners about the Russian Federation’s continued premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified war against Ukraine,” per the State Department. — The American Enterprise Institute, 9 a.m.: “A Conversation With House Armed Services Committee Chairman ADAM SMITH — with MACKENZIE EAGLEN and KORI SCHAKE” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: “Launch of the February 2022 Issue of the International Review of the Red Cross: Counterterrorism, Sanctions and War — with SUE ECKERT, EMANUELA-CHIARA GILLARD and JUSTINE WALKER” — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: “Coffee and Conversation with TROY MEINK” — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: State of the Surface Navy — with ROY KITCHENER and WILLIAM K. LESCHER” — Washington Post Live, 10 a.m.: “117th Congress: Rep. MIKE TURNER” — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Examining the Senate Confirmation Process and Federal Vacancies — with ANNE JOSEPH O’CONNELL, KRISTINE SIMMONS and ADAM WHITE” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with STEVEN H. FAGIN, DOUGLAS T. HICKEY, ERIN ELIZABETH MCKEE and ALINA L. ROMANOWSKI” — Washington Post Live, 11:30 a.m.: “Black Ops: The Life of a CIA Shadow Warrior — with JOSEPH MARKS and RIC PRADO” — The Hudson Institute and The Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center, 12 p.m.: “Opportunities for Applying the AUKUS Model in South Korea — with PARK CHANG-KWOUN, BRYAN CLARK, HENRY SOKOLSKI and PARK YOUNG-JUNE” — Center for Digital Government, 1 p.m.: “Beyond the Beltway: Tech Trends in the States and Localities — with LAURA CLARK, CHRIS DERUSHA, ANN DUNKIN, KATRINA FLORY , WANDA GIBSON, ARACELI GUERRA, WILLIAM S. KEHOE, TOM LYNCH, BETH NIBLOCK, CHRIS REIN, ANGELO ‘TONY’ RIDDICK, CORDELL SCHACHTER, PETER WALLACE, JIM WEAVER, ED WINFIELD and RAMI ZAKARIA” — The Heritage Foundation, 1 p.m.: “ The State of Decision Support Analysis in the DOD — with THOMAS MAHNKEN, DAVID NORQUIST and JOHN WHITLEY” — Washington Post Live, 1:45 p.m.: “ Deputy Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO — with JONATHAN CAPEHART”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who considers himself a porcupine trying to deter the snake that is this newsletter. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
