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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
A Russian MiG-31 fighter jet carrying a Kinzhal missile takes off in Syria on June 25, 2021. | Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Let’s take a moment to discuss two important issues: An alleged Russian hypersonic missile attack on Ukraine and why we in the media should be careful about reporting “hypersonic” as a noun. On Saturday, CNN cited U.S. officials confirming what Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed : That Moscow launched Kh-47M2 Kinzhal “hypersonic missiles” at a military munitions warehouse in western Ukraine — the first known use of this kind of weapon in combat. But, increasingly, it’s not what it seems. First off, the Kremlin might be lying. TYLER ROGOWAY and STETSON PAYNE of the War Zone used commercial satellite imagery to locate the supposed target at a “heavily bombarded rural area in the far eastern area of Ukraine.” In other words, not near where Russian officials said. It’s also unclear if the U.S. detected any kind of hypersonic missile strike. “We’re not able to refute [the claim], but we can’t independently confirm it, either,” a senior U.S. defense official told reporters today . “It’s certainly possible” the weapon was used, the official said, “but it’s a bit of a head-scratcher” if it was. Even if the target was a weapons depot in Ukraine’s west — near Poland — there’s simply no need to deploy such an advanced weapon to hit it. A less-valuable missile would have sufficed. Theories abound for why Russia would assert such a bold and aggressive claim if, indeed, it turned out to be false. JEFFREY LEWIS of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies told NatSec Daily that Russia might have fibbed to change the narrative about its bumbling invasion. TOM KARAKO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said it could serve as a warning to NATO allies. Consider that DMITRY MEDVEDEV, formerly Russia’s president (even though then-Prime Minister VLADIMIR PUTIN called the shots), wrote an unhinged Telegram post today aimed at the Polish government. "The interests of Polish citizens are being sacrificed for Russophobia by these talentless politicians and their puppeteers from across the ocean with clear signs of senility," he stressed. “[I]t is much more important for the vassal Polish elites to swear allegiance to their overlord — the U.S. — rather than help their own citizens, so they will keep stoking the bonfire of hatred against the enemy that is Russia.” We’ll have to wait for more information about what did or didn’t happen, and the “Why?” either way. In the meantime, what we all can do is be careful about how we report the supposed use of these weapons. But let’s talk about the word “hypersonic” itself. “Hypersonic” as a noun in this context isn’t a thing, as Karako and MASAO DAHLGREN explained in a report last month, it’s an attribute. We’ll skip the wonkery which you’re welcome to read in the document, but the main point is that a hypersonic missile (note the word is an adjective here) earns that distinction by surviving a series of conditions over an extended period of time. There are weapons that at some point in their flight go faster than hypersonic missiles, but speed isn’t the only factor at play in the naming — maneuverability and propulsion system play a part, too. “This nonsense has gone on long enough. It’s high time we stop calling everything ‘a hypersonic.’ Talking about hypersonics as a thing rather than an attribute is imprecise, misleading and ungrammatical. Other than that, it’s great,” Karako told us in an interview. What’s more, we media types risk doing Russia’s propaganda work for it by inflating the significance of this supposed launch. Again, even if it is true, experts say that the Kinzhal is basically an Iskander-M 9M723 quasi-ballistic missile , but in this instance shot from a plane. That’s noteworthy, sure, but not the main takeaway. “The bigger story is that it appears the Russian Air Force still can't operate over western Ukraine effectively because of Ukrainian air defenses, which means they have to launch longer-range missiles to [strike] targets there,” tweeted ROB LEE of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. As Karako summarized it all: “Let’s not freak out over this.”
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost around 15,000 personnel, 498 tanks, 1,535 armored combat vehicles, 240 artillery systems, 80 multiple-launch rocket systems, 97 warplanes, 121 helicopters, 969 vehicles, three ships, 60 fuel tanks, and 24 drones ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russia has just under 90 percent of its combat power available in Ukraine. “They have put a lot into this fight, and they still have a lot left.” (Senior U.S. defense official) — “The enemy continues to insidiously destroy the infrastructure in the captured cities, launch missile and bomb strikes on peaceful neighborhoods of Ukrainian cities and villages, rob, kidnap and take hostage civilians. The enemy is concentrating forces and means in certain areas to resume an attempt to carry out offensive actions.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Heavy fighting continues north of Kyiv. Russian forces advancing on the city from the north-east have stalled. Forces advancing from the direction of Hostomel to the north-west have been repulsed by fierce Ukrainian resistance. The bulk of Russian forces remain more than 25 kilometres from the centre of the city. Despite the continued lack of progress, Kyiv remains Russia’s primary military objective and they are likely to prioritise attempting to encircle the city over the coming weeks.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) — Russia has launched more than 1,100 missiles into Ukraine since the war began. The U.S. has also seen “some increased naval activity in the northern Black Sea,” which is responsible for “at least some of the shelling” around Odessa. (Senior U.S. defense official) Global Response: — U.S.: America’s U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD told CNN’s JAKE TAPPER the Biden administration doesn’t support Poland’s peacekeeping-mission proposal for Ukraine. “The president has been very clear that we will not put American troops on the ground in Ukraine. We don't want to escalate this into a war with the United States.” — Bulgaria: Bulgarian Prime Minister KIRIL PETKOV ruled out providing Ukraine with military assistance, though Sofia will continue to give humanitarian aid. "Bulgaria will continue to do everything possible to aid the Ukrainians in this hard war and this huge aggression that the Russian Federation has been inflicting on them," he told reporters Saturday. "But being so close to the conflict, right now, military aid for Ukraine won't be possible.” Reporting: — Washington Post: “Nearly 1 in 4 people in Ukraine forced out of their homes since Russia’s invasion” — New York Times: “An Ancient City Transformed by War” — Wall Street Journal: “Russia Relies Increasingly on Missiles, Artillery to Pressure Ukraine" POTUS HEADS TO POLAND: President JOE BIDEN will travel to Warsaw on Friday for a meeting with Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA on the subject of “the humanitarian and human rights crisis” caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the White House announced Sunday night. Poland, which borders eastern Ukraine, has welcomed more than two million refugees from the war within three weeks, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Vice President KAMALA HARRIS visited Poland earlier this month amid its disagreement with the United States over loaning fighter jets to Ukraine. Biden’s talks with Duda will come after the American president travels to Brussels on Wednesday to attend a NATO summit, a G-7 meeting and a European Council session — all concerning the Russia-Ukraine crisis. ZELENSKYY AIDE HINTS AT NATO NEUTRALITY: It will be “relatively easy” for Ukraine and Russia to reach an agreement on NATO membership as officials in Kyiv seek negotiations with Moscow to end the war, said ALEXANDER RODNYANSKY — an adviser to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY — in an interview with POLITICO’s ALEX WICKHAM. “The neutrality issue is something where we can find compromise,” Rodnyansky said, adding: “If we get [security guarantees], that would be sufficient at this point to say that we can delay our NATO ambitions, especially given the fact that NATO has said ‘no’ to us anyway. So that’s relatively easy, I would say.” Rodnyansky also said potentially allowing Russian to be recognized as the language of some Ukrainian regions was a “nonissue,” and he seemed open to renaming certain streets according to Moscow’s demands. But Rodnyansky was steadfast in refusing to cede the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, saying: “Anything that relates to our sovereignty on territory, that’s of course not going to go anywhere.” U.S. SENDING SOVIET-ERA AIR DEFENSES TO UKRAINE: Decades ago, the U.S. secretly acquired Soviet-era air-defense systems to better understand Russia’s military and the tech it exported around the world. Now, President Biden plans to send those same systems, like the SA-8, to Ukraine to bolster its defenses. “The U.S. is hoping that the provision of additional air defenses will enable Ukraine to create a de facto no-fly zone, since the U.S. and its NATO allies have rebuffed Ukraine’s appeals that the alliance establish one,” The Wall Street Journal’s NANCY YOUSSEF and MICHAEL GORDON reported. “Ukraine already possesses some Russian air defense systems, including the S-300. It needs more such systems, however, that can operate at medium and long range to blunt Russia’s aircraft and missile attacks.” Meanwhile, the U.S. is also working with NATO allies to see if they would transfer their air-defense systems to Ukraine. Slovakia is interested in doing so, but only if it receives an immediate and adequate backfill for the transfer.
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Lockheed Martin’s LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn more. | | | IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | GENOCIDE IN MYANMAR: “Nearly five years after they were raped, beaten, murdered and forced to flee their burning villages, the United States has officially declared that the Rohingya Muslims of Myanmar were victims of genocide and crimes against humanity,” our own NAHAL TOOSI reported. The announcement came from Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, one year after a military junta took over in a coup and many years since human rights activists and Rohingya themselves called for this designation. From the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, Blinken “specifically blamed the military, not Myanmar’s now-ousted civilian government, for the abuses. And he laid out example after example of the atrocities the Rohingya faced in the crackdown that began in August 2017, from children being stomped upon by soldiers to some of the troops revealing that they were told to shoot Rohingya on sight,” per Toosi. “It’s critically important to reach the determination of genocide, but at the same time, we must remember that behind each of these numbers are countless individual acts of cruelty, and inhumanity,” Blinken said. “The day will come when those responsible for these appalling acts will have to answer for them.” RUSSIA SUMMONS U.S. AMB: Biden calling Putin a “war criminal” could fully break what few ties the U.S. and Russia have left, Russia’s Foreign Ministry told America’s ambassador to the country. “Such statements from the American president, unworthy of a statesman of such high rank, put Russian-American relations on the verge of rupture," the ministry said in a statement, announcing this message was delivered directly to Ambassador JOHN SULLIVAN . The Ministry also stated that hostile actions toward Russia would receive a "decisive and firm response.” It’s unclear if this is mere bluster or a serious threat by Russia. But relations are already so poor that a full break might not materially mean much in the short term. In the long term, experts say, it could make it harder for the world’s foremost nuclear powers to de-escalate tensions. UKRAINE SUSPENDS SEVERAL POLITICAL PARTIES: The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine has moved to suspend at least 11 political parties under martial law, Zelenskyy said in an address Sunday, and the Ministry of Justice “is instructed to immediately take comprehensive measures” to ban their activities. Among the suspended Russian-leaning parties are the Opposition Platform-For Life, Party of Shariy, Nashi, the Opposition Bloc, Left Opposition, Union of Left Forces, State, Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, Socialist Party of Ukraine, the Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine and the Volodymyr Saldo Bloc. “Any activity of politicians aimed at splitting or collaborating will not succeed. But it will get a tough response,” Zelenskyy said. He also signed a decree combining all national TV channels into one platform, citing the importance of a “unified information policy,” per Reuters.
| | | BREAKING: In a White House released statement, Biden said there’s “evolving intelligence that the Russian Government is exploring options for potential cyberattacks” on the U.S. Our MAGGIE MILLER has more. CYBER IN CHINA BILL: Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER is expected to bring major China-focused legislation to the floor this week, leaving it up to lawmakers to resolve key differences between the Senate and House versions of the measures. Our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity took a look at what cyber-related elements remain in play. — Laying a foundation for funding : The Senate’s U.S. Innovation and Competition Act includes a provision establishing a program at the Department of Homeland Security to allow the agency to study the physical and cyber threats facing the different U.S. critical infrastructure sectors. The process, which plays off a recommendation from the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, would give the federal government a good base point for determining which critical infrastructure risks to prioritize each year. — State Department disinformation funding: Both bills provide the State Department’s Global Engagement Center, which is designed to counter foreign disinformation and propaganda, with $150 million in funding to increase its ability to fight these campaigns ahead of the midterm elections. — CyberCorps investments: The House’s America COMPETES Act expands the budget for an ROTC-like program for the federal cyber workforce, known as CyberCorps, from $60 million to $90 million. The program awards scholarships to enrollees in cyber degree programs, and in return, participating students promise to work for the U.S. government for up to four years in a cyber-related position. The new funds would allow the CyberCorps to increase the number of students it accepts as well as the number of universities and community colleges it can partner with.
| | | |   | | | | | | APPLIED INTUITION WANTS GOVT AFFAIRS TEAM: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) have a scoop about Applied Intuition seeking to grow its government affairs team. The company, which specializes in software for autonomous vehicles, will also seek to host a conference in May. The company is opening a Washington office with six employees and plans to grow to about 15 people by the summer, the company tells our own LEE HUDSON. It also has on tap Nexus 22, scheduled for May 17 at the National Press Club, which will feature Defense Innovation Unit boss MIKE BROWN; MICHÈLE FLOURNOY, former Pentagon policy chief; CHRIS LYNCH, CEO of Rebellion Defense; and MARC ANDREESSEN, co-founder and general partner of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. Applied Intuition is a subcontractor to General Dynamics for the Army’s M2 Bradley replacement and has a blanket purchase agreement from the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center for test and evaluation services.
| | | SPLIT OVER INTERVENTION AFTER CHEM WEAPONS USE: A small rift formed among Democrats and Republicans over whether the U.S. should alter its calculations if Russia uses chemical weapons in Ukraine. On Sunday, NBC News’ CHUCK TODD repeatedly asked NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG if deploying chemical weapons was a red line for the alliance. Stoltenberg didn’t have a direct answer, but he did say the goal is to prevent a direct confrontation between NATO — namely the U.S. — and Russia. Todd asked the same question of Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) and Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) on his “Meet the Press” program. “I don't think the United States needs to draw specific red lines today. I think we just need to make clear to the Russians that our involvement in this war is going to increase if their tactics targeting civilians also increase,” the Democrat said. But Cheney went further — much further. The full transcript makes it clear: Todd: Let me start with a question that I asked the NATO Secretary General and that I also asked Senator Murphy, and I'll ask you. The use of chemical weapons, is that a red line in your mind for whether NATO should at least intervene to protect civilians in some form in Ukraine? Cheney: I think that it should be, Chuck. And I think that we in the West, the United States and NATO, we need to stop telling the Russians what we won't do. We need to be very clear that we are considering all options, that the use of chemical weapons is certainly something that would alter our calculations. Granted, Cheney is on the hawkish end of her party — a party that doesn’t listen to her anyway. And Murphy is firmly in favor of Biden’s handling of the Ukraine situation. The majority of Congress is closer to Murphy’s position than Cheney’s, too.
| | | FORMER U.N. JUDGE ALLEGES COUP IN WHISTLEBLOWER CASE: ROWAN DOWNING, an Australian judge who served on the United Nations Dispute Tribunal, is accusing the U.N. of a “coup d’etat” for terminating his appointment in 2019 before he could rule in the case of whistleblower EMMA REILLY, per The Sydney Morning Herald’s JOSH FELDMAN and ERYK BAGSHAW. Reilly, a former U.N. human rights officer, alleged that the intergovernmental organization provided Beijing with the names of Uyghurs and other Chinese dissidents who were due to speak at a meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Council. Downing now says the U.N. committed an “attack upon the independence of the judiciary” by booting him from the case shortly before he was set to release his final judgments. “It’s the sort of conduct that happens possibly following a coup — a coup d’etat — where people want to get rid of judges quickly,” Downing said, adding that “no nation-state would be able to acceptably do that.” He also said U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES “personally intervened” to unlawfully defer the U.N.’s consideration of the matter — a claim which a U.N. spokesperson rejected.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America’s next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn more. | | | | | | — NANCY McELDOWNEY, national security adviser to the vice president, is stepping down and will be replaced by her deputy, PHILIP GORDON, the White House announced. A senior administration official told NatSec Daily that McEldowney will leave her post “in the coming weeks” for “personal reasons,” but didn’t specify what those were. — ERIN SIMPSON was sworn in today as a senior adviser in industrial base policy at the Department of Defense.
| | | — MSTYSLAV CHERNOV, The Associated Press: “20 Days in Mariupol: The Team That Documented City's Agony" — MAREK POSARD and KHRYSTYNA HOLYNSKA, Breaking Defense: “ Russia Has a Military Professionalism Problem, and It Is Costing Them in Ukraine” — ANDRIY YERMAK, The Washington Post: “ Opinion: The West Underestimated Ukraine’s Bravery. Now, It’s Underestimating Russia’s Brutality.”
| | | — Access Intelligence, 8:30 a.m.: “ Satellite 2022 Conference — with JAMES BRIDENSTINE, MIKE DEAN and more” — The Center for American Progress, 9 a.m.: “Toward a More Balanced Foreign Policy for Japan: A Conversation With Opposition Leader KENTA IZUMI — with TOBIAS HARRIS” — The George Washington University’s Institute for Korean Studies and the East Asia National Resource Center, 9 a.m.: “Korea Policy Forum, the New Yoon Administration and U.S.-ROK Relations: Journalists’ Views — with GYUSEOK JANG, YONHO KIM, JUNG EUN LEE, TIM MARTIN and JOSH ROGIN” — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “ Addressing the Iranian Missile Threat: Approaches to Risk Reduction and Arms Control — with WILLIAM ALBERQUE, JOHN KRZYZANIAK, HANNA NOTTE and TIMOTHY WRIGHT” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with MARVIN ADAMS, M. TIA JOHNSON, WILLIAM LAPLANTE and ERIK RAVEN” — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: “Aerospace Nation: Senior Leaders’ Perspective on War in Ukraine — with PHILIP BREEDLOVE and DAVID DEPTULA” — The Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: “ Maintaining the Nuclear Peace — with DILAN EZGI KOC, MICHAEL KREPON and IZUMI NAKAMITSU” — Foreign Policy, 11 a.m.: “ FP Live: The IMF’s KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA and GITA GOPINATH — with RAVI AGRAWAL” — The United States Institute of Peace, 11 a.m.: “ Islam, Peace and Women’s Rights in Afghanistan — with RINA AMIRI, FATIMA GAILANI, AHMAD MUHAMMAD AL TAYEB and HALIMAH YACOB” — The Government Executive Media Group, 12 p.m.: “Future Ready Infrastructure Reimagined in a Hybrid World — with DAVE HINCHMAN, TOM SASALA and more” — The Middle East Institute, 12 p.m.: “ Will Iran’s Pro-Natalist Population Policy Succeed? — with NADEREH CHAMLOU, FIROOZEH KASHANI-SABET, FARZANEH ROUDI and ALEX VATANKA” — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 12:30 p.m.: “France and the Western Response to Russia’s War on Ukraine — with ALEXANDRA DE HOOP SCHEFFER, EDGAR P. TAM and JOSEPH DE WECK” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1:30 p.m.: “Ukraine and Taiwan: Parallels and Early Lessons Learned — with JOHN CULVER, BONNIE S. GLASER, MICHAEL J. GREEN, SCOTT KENNEDY and BONNY LIN” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:15 p.m.: “Full Committee Briefing: Update on the Iran Nuclear Negotiations — with ROB MALLEY and BRETT MCGURK” — Washington Post Live, 2:15 p.m.: “117th Congress: Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.)” — The United States Institute of Peace, 2:30 p.m.: “Responding to Russian Atrocities in Ukraine: Developing a Multilateral Strategy for Accountability — with LISE GRANDE, OKSANA MARKAROVA, JANE E. STROMSETH and WILLIAM TAYLOR” — The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, 4 p.m.: “ The Hon. Kevin Rudd on ‘The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China’ — with ALYSSA AYRES and DAVID SHAMBAUGH”
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