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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Sen. Tim Kaine speaks during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Capitol Hill on September 28, 2021 in Washington, D.C. | Patrick Semansky-Pool/Getty Images | With help from Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) says there’s more military coordination between the U.S. and Ukraine than meets the eye. He’s spent the last two months in sensitive briefings, both in the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees, diving deep into the interactions between American and Ukrainian officials. Outside of principal interactions — like when Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY speak with their counterparts — the Biden administration has kept good relations at the lower levels. “I am satisfied that the level of mil-to-mil communication is very, very strong. The intel-to-intel communication is very, very strong, and that's proven really, really valuable for the Ukrainian defense,” he told NatSec Daily in a phone interview this afternoon. We asked the Senator if he knew the identity of the military mastermind behind Ukraine’s dogged defense. While he wouldn’t give us a name, he assured NatSec Daily that there’s robust communication up and down the chain of command in Kyiv and Washington. That’s led to less daylight between the U.S. and Ukraine on weapons transfers than portrayed. “When I talk to the [U.S.] military, they're not telling me ‘Hey, the Ukrainian military is asking for X, but we're not providing that because it's too provocative.’” In fact, Kaine says NATO allies sending fighter jets to Ukraine doesn’t cross the administration’s red line. President JOE BIDEN and his team just don’t think it’s right for this moment — too much risk for too little gain on the battlefield. “When I really pin down the Biden team on this, I think the way they would describe it is no U.S. troops in Ukraine or in the skies over Ukraine and no NATO troops in Ukraine or in the skies over Ukraine. That's the real red line. I don't think there's a red line between air-defense systems and fighter jets,” he said, referencing the aborted deal to have Poland send their MiG-29s to Ukraine. There were two other notable, non-Ukraine items from our conversation with the lawmaker. First, Kaine came away from a briefing yesterday believing the U.S. is closer to rejoining the Iran nuclear deal than it was last month. In February, top U.S. officials spoke to lawmakers to say Tehran was “weeks” away from having enough nuclear material to make a bomb and that major sticking points remained. Some sticking points persist — namely removing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from a terrorist blacklist — but in this session Kaine felt all sides made some progress to finalizing the pact. Second, Kaine is working to pass a bill to amend the tax code to incentivize companies to hire U.S. military spouses. The military spouse unemployment rate is three times higher than the national rate, he said, noting it’s been higher for a long time. Working with Sens. MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.) and MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), the goal is to attach the Military Spouse Hiring Act to a future tax bill. “I think there's likely to be some moving tax legislation on the Senate side this year,” Kaine said, noting Hassan is on the Senate Finance Committee. RIP 64TH SECSTATE: MADELEINE ALBRIGHT , the first female U.S. secretary of State, died today at 84 after a struggle with cancer, her family announced . “She was surrounded by family and friends. We have lost a loving mother, grandmother, sister, aunt, and friend,” they said in a statement.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost around 15,600 personnel, 517 tanks, 1,578 armored combat vehicles, 267 artillery systems, 80 multiple-launch rocket systems, 101 warplanes, 124 helicopters, 1,008 vehicles, four ships and 42 drones. ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — NATO estimates that 7,000 to 15,000 Russian troops have been killed over four weeks of fighting in Ukraine ( Senior NATO official) — “The battlefield across northern Ukraine remains largely static with Russian forces likely conducting a period of reorganisation before resuming large-scale offensive operations. Russian forces are attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country as they advance from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south. Russian forces are still attempting to circumvent Mykolaiv as they look to drive west towards Odesa.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) — “Due to an unsuccessful attempt to blockade Chernihiv, the enemy is trying to recover from significant losses and organize logistical support for its units” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Units of the Russian occupiers are concentrating their efforts on blocking the cities of Kharkiv and Sumy and restoring the loss of personnel” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) Global Response: — NATO: NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG announced the alliance will double its number of deployed battlegroups — from four to eight — sending them to Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia. — Sweden: Stockholm will send 5,000 more anti-tank weapons to Ukraine (Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs) Keep tabs on the weapons the world is sending to Ukraine. Headlines: — The Washington Post: “ Rockets strike residential area of Kyiv, destroying apartments and sparking fires" — The New York Times: “A Town on Ukraine’s Edge, Determined to Escape Its Past” — The Wall Street Journal: “ Russian Stock Market to Partially Reopen on Thursday” DOOR OPEN TO NATO EASTERN FRONT PERMANENT PRESENCE: JULIE SMITH, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, left the door open to the alliance establishing a permanent presence in Eastern Europe. “NATO is in the process now of stepping back and thinking more about a medium- and longer-term force presence in NATO territory on that Eastern flank,” she told a virtual audience hosted by the Atlantic Council think tank. “We don't have all the answers yet. Of course, permanent stationing could be one solution or persistent rotations as another option that could be on the table.” “What we need to do is have our military commanders give us the best advice that they can, come to us with specific proposals and then, as an alliance, look at what the security environment requires,” she told moderator NICK SCHIFRIN of PBS NewsHour. What NATO decides could be determined by how many troops Russia decides to keep in Belarus or the status of the war in Ukraine. Baltic nations have long called for a “heel-to-toe” permanent presence in their region, angling for U.S. troops to serve as a deterrent against a potential Russian invasion. “We need to move from a tripwire-based deterrence towards a forward defense-based deterrence, or a deterrence by denial, if you will,” JONATAN VSEVIOV, the permanent secretary of Estonia’s Foreign Ministry , told the Guardian today. Meanwhile, NATO SecGen Stoltenberg announced that the alliance would double its presence of battlegroups in Eastern Europe. NATO allies are considering keeping him on as chief for another year, even though he already has another job lined up in his native Norway. Asked about the potential to extend his stay, he told reporters "this is for 30 allies to decide. My focus is on preparing the summit tomorrow in the midst of the most serious security situation we have been in for decades. And that's my focus and then I leave it to the allies to decide on the other things." FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — POLL: MOST AMERICANS SAY STOP IMPORTING RUSSIAN OIL: A new poll shows that 78 percent of Americans want the U.S. to stop importing oil and gas from Russia, even if it leads to higher prices at the pump. That’s according to a new survey by data company Premise, who polled 1,241 U.S. adults between March 10 and 12. Russia only accounts for 8 percent of America’s oil imports, however, so the hit won’t be substantial. Still, the administration is in talks with Gulf countries and even Venezuela to fill the gap. Meanwhile, a rising minority of Americans — 37 percent — favor sending U.S. troops to defend Ukraine from Russia’s invasion. However, youth may be winning out over the experience of those who lived through the Cold War: 47 percent of those surveyed are open to the idea while only 26 percent of those over 60 are. ‘WAR CRIMES’: The Biden administration today officially accused Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine, following personal statements made by Biden and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN. “Today, I can announce that, based on information currently available, the U.S. government assesses that members of Russia’s forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine,” Blinken said in an official statement . “Our assessment is based on a careful review of available information from public and intelligence sources. As with any alleged crime, a court of law with jurisdiction over the crime is ultimately responsible for determining criminal guilt in specific cases.” In reaching this conclusion, Blinken cited Russia’s destruction of schools and apartment buildings, a maternity hospital in Mariupol and a theater that was surrounded with “children” in Russian writing visible from the sky. “Putin’s forces used these same tactics in Grozny, Chechnya, and Aleppo, Syria, where they intensified their bombardment of cities to break the will of the people,” Blinken said. BIDEN TRIES TO TIGHTEN ALLIANCE ON EUROPE TRIP: In a preview of Biden’s European travel this week, our own CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO and JONATHAN LEMIRE note that administration officials have been cagey as to what more deliverables the commander in chief can or will provide in Brussels and Warsaw. While Biden has been largely successful thus far in marshaling the alliance against Russia, those bonds may soon run up against “deep strains, chief among them a creeping sense of powerlessness among the allies and reluctant admissions that the war may only end when VLADIMIR PUTIN decides it does.” Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and oil may well emerge as the “biggest flashpoint” when the world leaders meet this week, Cadelago and Lemire write. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY “has zeroed in on the existing energy ties as funding the Russian war machine. For Biden and Europe, the fear is that the alliance against Russia could fray as those energy demands hit harder.” Meanwhile, German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ is already warning that banning Russian energy imports would trigger a European recession. Western countries are also fighting against the clock: “While the sanctions from the West have placed Russia’s economy in a vice, Putin does not face the same domestic political considerations as others. Already punishing dissent in his country, he has the ability to withstand the economic doldrums — at least for a while — and continue his grueling advances despite the heavy losses in men and equipment.”
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | ‘A REAL THREAT’: Before hopping on Marine One en route to Andrews AFB, Biden told reporters that the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine is “a real threat.” For weeks, the U.S. has accused Russia of orchestrating such a strike. “We believe that Moscow may be setting the stage to use a chemical weapon, and then falsely blame Ukraine to justify escalating its attacks on the Ukrainian people,” SecState Blinken told reporters last week. Ukrainian officials already claim that Russia has used white phosphorus , raising concerns that Moscow won’t be shy about using other chemical weapons as the rages on. LONGTIME KREMLIN INSIDER QUITS: ANATOLY CHUBAIS, who most recently was appointed as a special presidential representative for Putin in 2020, has left his post and fled the country, reports Russian government-owned news agency TASS. He becomes the highest-profile official in Moscow to depart since the start of the invasion of Ukraine. POLITICO’s DOUGLAS BUSVINE writes of Chubais: “The red-headed reformer was a top aide to BORIS YELTSIN , Russia’s first democratically elected president, and was a major architect of reforms that created a private sector following seven decades of Soviet communism.” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV confirmed that Chubais had resigned but declined to comment on reports he had left Russia. “Whether or not he’s left the country — that’s a personal matter,” Peskov said, according to state news agency RIA Novosti. POLAND MAY EXPEL DOZENS OF MOSCOW’S DIPLOMATS: STANISLAW ZARYN, a spokesperson for Poland’s special services, told reporters that the Internal Security Agency “has identified 45 people — officers of Russian secret services and persons associated with them — who had diplomatic status in Poland,” per Reuters. That list of individuals “was forwarded to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” he said, and it includes “officers of the special services of the Russian Federation and people cooperating with them. … People who conducted intelligence activities against Poland, but also against our allies.” SERGEY ANDREEV , Russia’s ambassador to Poland, denied the accusations but acknowledged the diplomats “will have to go. This is a sovereign decision by the Polish side, and they have the right to their own decision.”
| | | WORLD AWAITS PUTIN’S CYBERWAR: In the wake of Biden’s warning this week that Russian cyberattacks are “coming,” our own MAGGIE MILLER sets out to answer one of the most nagging questions of the nearly monthlong invasion: Why has the Kremlin held back from unleashing its full hacking might against Ukraine? “I’m one of those people who over the years has been saying [the next war] would be so much cyber,” said Lt. Gen. BEN HODGES, the former commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe. “Instead it’s been almost medieval what we have seen, not just sort of a cyber juggernaut that I had expected.” So far, hacking assaults on infrastructure in Ukraine have been far less than what everyone acknowledges Russia is capable of unleashing. “The idea that war was moving online primarily, which has been put around for a quarter of a century … certainly at this point in 2022 is not accurate,” said CIARAN MARTIN, the former CEO of the U.K.’s National Cyber Security Centre. But DMITRI ALPEROVITCH , the co-founder of the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, cautioned that “cyber retaliation will still come. I think right now [the Russians] are still preoccupied with prosecuting this war in Ukraine that is not going well.” RUSSIAN HACKERS PROBING U.S. ENERGY NETWORKS: “Russian hackers have recently scanned the networks of at least five U.S. energy companies and 18 other U.S. defense, financial services and IT firms in a possible prelude to destructive intrusions, the FBI warned industry partners in a recent alert,” per our own ERIC GELLER. While “scanning activity is common on a network,” the Russian IP addresses responsible for this scanning activity “are believed to be associated with cyber actors who previously conducted destructive cyber activity against foreign critical infrastructure,” the bureau said in the March 18 alert he obtained. The FBI said it had identified 140 Russian IP addresses that had engaged in “abnormal scanning activity” against the infrastructure of at least 23 U.S. companies. The news comes as Biden and his team have openly warned about attacks on America’s critical infrastructure. Targeted companies received a briefing by the administration.
| | | |   | | | | | | 3D-PRINTED ENGINES: Our own LEE HUDSON scooped in Morning Defense (for Pros!) that rocket engine maker Ursa Major today will announce the delivery of 3-D printed engines to Phantom Space and Stratolaunch, CEO and founder JOE LAURIENTI told her. The company expects to deliver a total of 30 Hadley engines this year, and has set a production goal of delivering one engine per week in 2023. The Pentagon is working on multiple hypersonic weapons projects to compete with China and Russia, but is also struggling to develop rocket engines. The Hadley propulsion system is the newest U.S.-made entrant in the industry. Stratolaunch will use the new engine for experiments with a test vehicle designed to reach Mach 6. With a limited number of aircraft large enough to launch hypersonic missiles, DoD hopes Stratolaunch may help the Air Force free up B-52s for more time-sensitive missions. Laurienti said reusing the test vehicle will also ultimately save DoD money. He said it costs $4 million to use the Hadley engine in a single mission versus $3,000 to run the propulsion system on a test stand. Phantom Space, meanwhile, plans to use the engine on a two-stage expendable rocket to transport satellites and other space cargo. ‘MOVE RAPIDLY': Senate Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) said his panel wants the Pentagon to step on the gas after Congress set aside an extra $3.5 billion to replenish its inventories of Javelin and Stinger missiles that were sent into the fight in Ukraine. But he noted the defense industry faces supply chain hurdles to quickly ramp up production of major systems, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. "I think the problems are the lines are still open, but they had not been operating at peak capacity because the demand was not there. And the real problem, I think, is not so much the final assembly lines," Reed explained during a Defense Writers Group event. "It's the subcontractors and it's parts, like electronic parts, which are very difficult to get, and even more difficult now because Covid has disrupted international supply chains dramatically." Some top lawmakers, including others on the committee, are worried existing production lines won't be able to restock depleted U.S. and European munitions in a quick enough timeframe. Reed predicted lawmakers may be receptive to providing more money or budget flexibility, but underscored the Pentagon now has ample funding after Congress doubled the administration's $1.75 billion request for replenishing weapons. "I think they're going to move rapidly" to restock, Reed said, adding SASC will "encourage them to do it rapidly."
| | | DEMS DOUBTING BIDEN’S IRAN TALKS: Senate Democrats are starting to express reservations about public reports outlining details of the Biden administration’s new nuclear agreement with Iran, which would include lifting some sanctions on Tehran, per our own ANDREW DESIDERIO. “The negotiations aren’t complete, and there are major obstacles still remaining,” said Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), a top Foreign Relations Committee member who opposed the 2015 nuclear agreement. “That doesn’t mean they won’t be resolved. But there are issues that are on the table.” Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), who supports reviving the original pact, said after a classified briefing Tuesday that U.S. intelligence about Iran’s so-called “breakout time” before developing a nuclear weapon is “chilling,” adding: “We have no reason to believe that there is a pathway, other than diplomacy, to extend the breakout time.” Some lawmakers, Desiderio explains, “are worried about the possibility of the U.S. lifting sanctions on the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian regime’s militia, as part of any agreement with Tehran. Reports have indicated that the U.S. is considering removing the IRGC from its formal list of foreign terrorist organizations.” 40 REPUBLICANS WANT DEFENSE HIKE: Forty Republicans in the House and Senate wrote to Biden urging him to increase defense spending by 5 percent over inflation in the FY 2023 budget. “As you prepare your fiscal year 2023 budget for submission to Congress, we strongly encourage you to reject the approach you took last year when you proposed to cut defense spending below the rate of inflation,” the members wrote in the letter led by Sen. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.) and Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.). “Over the last year, the threats to our national security have grown exponentially. As O’Brien noted: The letter, signed by 13 SASC members and all but one HASC Republican, points to China's military modernization and the Russian invasion of Ukraine for justifying the growth in defense spending. The lawmakers argue that high inflation also necessitates a bigger top line "to protect the buying power" of the military. Such an increase could mean a national defense budget well above $800 billion.
| | | BOLTON URGES SENATE VOTE ON IRAN DEAL: JOHN BOLTON, former President DONALD TRUMP ’s third national security adviser, is calling for the Biden administration to let the Senate vote on America’s reentry into the Iran nuclear deal. “Under any coherent reading of the Constitution’s Article II treaty clause, Biden should submit this measure to the Senate as a proposed treaty to see if ‘two-thirds of the Senators present concur,’” he wrote in a Washington Post op-ed . “By not sending the deal to the Senate, Biden would flout its treaty role. If that happens, the Senate should use its constitutional power to withhold advice and consent on all presidential nominees, both executive and judicial, until Biden changes his mind.” GOP Senators already agree with Bolton on this point. In February, 30 of them signed a letter to Biden demanding he let the upper chamber vote on America’s reentry into the deal Bolton convinced Trump to rip up four years ago. The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, known as INARA, states that the president must, among other items, send Congress “the text of the agreement and all related materials and annexes” within five days of reaching a deal. After that, the law states at least 60 senators must vote to stay in the nuclear pact. Republicans have since contended that any effort to reenter an accord requires at least Senate say so, while proponents of the deal insist it’s up to presidential prerogative.
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Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more. | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ELISA CATALANO EWERS has started as the Middle East and North Africa lead for Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. She was formerly an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank. SARAH ARKIN will remain the deputy staff director and handle the Europe portfolio for SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.). — SHELLY O’NEILL STONEMAN has been appointed by SecDef Austin to serve as the new chair of the Defense Advisory Committee on Women in the Services and lead its restoration, per the Pentagon. She succeeds retired Air Force Gen. JANET C. WOLFENBARGER. — JOSEPH YUN has been appointed by Biden to serve as special presidential envoy for compact negotiations. Per the State Department, the announcement comes as the administration negotiates “amendments to certain provisions of the Compacts of Free Association” with the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau — collectively known as the Freely Associated States. Yun previously served as the U.S. special representative for North Korea policy and as the U.S. ambassador to Malaysia.
| | | — HIROKO TABUCHI, The New York Times: “How Europe Got Hooked on Russian Gas Despite Reagan’s Warnings” — PATRICIA ZENGERLE and RICHARD COWAN, Reuters: “Analysis: Ukraine Crisis Could Derail Drive to Limit U.S. Defense Spending” — URI FRIEDMAN, The Atlantic: “What’s the Likelihood of Nuclear War?”
| | | — Biden, in Brussels, attends an extraordinary NATO summit, a G-7 meeting and a European Council summit to discuss the invasion of Ukraine. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “ The Capital Cable with CHRISTOPHER DEL CORSO — with VICTOR CHA, MARK LIPPERT and SUE MI TERRY” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: The Posture of United States Northern Command and United States Southern Command — with LAURA RICHARDSON and GLEN VANHERCK” — The Government Executive Media Group, 10 a.m.: “Intelligence Summit — with CYNTHIA BEDELL, LEAH LAUDERBACK and more” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 11 a.m.: “Closed Briefing: Update on U.S.-Taiwan Policy — DANIEL KRITENBRINK and ELY RATNER” — Washington Post Live, 11:30 a.m.: “World Stage: Ukraine — with RAFAEL MARIANO GROSSI” — The Middle East Institute, 2 p.m.: “ In Conversation — with KHALED ALYEMANY AND GERALD FEIERSTEIN” — Business Council for International Understanding, 2:30 p.m.: “ Roundtable Discussion — with MIKE MILLER” — International Institute for Strategic Studies, 6 p.m.: “Elleman Memorial Lecture and Reception — with MARK FITZPATRICK, ROSE GOTTEMOELLER, DAVID E. HOFFMAN and NIKITA SMIDOVICH” — The R Street Institute, 6:30 p.m.: “README + Making Space: Celebrate New Voices in Cybersecurity — with MICHAELA BARNETT, BRIDGET BEAN, TATYANA BOLTON, JUMOKE DADA, JENNA MCLAUGHLIN, T. NICOLE MONTGOMERY, RHETTE WALLACH and BLAKE SOBCZAK”
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