|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is pictured during a press conference on February 19, 2022 in Vilnius, Lithuania. | Paulius Peleckis/Getty Images | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint If you’re in the national security space in Washington, D.C., you’re bound to hear iterations of these three phrases: “Let’s do brunch at Le Dip,” “What do you do?” and “Show me your budget, and I’ll tell you what you value.” We’re going to focus on that last one — the defense-related portions of the FY 2023 budget released Monday — and leave the “What WILL SMITH slapping CHRIS ROCK tells us about X” takes for others. Here’s the BLUF, per our own POLITICO defense team: “The White House asked Congress for $813 billion for national defense on Monday — including $773 billion for the Pentagon, or $30 billion more than approved by Congress for this year.” “The 4 percent boost from the 2022 submission will come as good news for defense hawks, but it won’t be considered enough by Republicans in Congress who were calling for at least a 5 percent raise,” they added. “The national defense budget enacted for this year was $782 billion.” Still, President JOE BIDEN called the request “one of the largest investments in our national security in history,” touting the “continued investment” in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. Biden requested $715 billion for the Pentagon last year. Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN said this much spending is needed to “ continue to defend the nation, take care of our people and succeed through teamwork with our allies and partners.” So what’s in the budget? Here’s the down and dirty: Air Force: The service is seeking $234.1 billion for fiscal 2023, up from $182 billion provided by Congress for this year. It’s looking to shed Cold War-era planes and invest more in modern aircraft. Space Force: It is requesting $24.5 billion for fiscal 2023, a significant boost from the $17.4 billion it requested for this year. Investing in satellites to track missiles remains a key priority. Army: The Army would see a modest increase to $177.5 billion in fiscal 2023, compared to the $174.7 billion lawmakers approved for the current year, approximately a 1.6 percent increase. “The budget request supports a total Army force of 998,500 troops, a decline of 12,000 from the personnel levels authorized by Congress,” per our defense team. Navy: The Navy Department, which includes the Marine Corps, would receive $230.8 billion, an increase of approximately $9.1 billion from the level Congress enacted for fiscal 2022. The Navy’s share of the request is $180.5 billion, up about $8 billion from the current level. The service plans to decommission 24 ships, which is certain to raise hackles on the Hill. Marine Corps: The Marine Corps’ share of the budget is $50.3 billion, nearly a 1.8 percent increase from the $49.5 billion enacted level this year. The service will continue to invest in network-related programs, a major priority for Gen. DAVID BERGER, the commandant of the Marine Corps. There are also a few notable priorities in the budget, namely nuclear modernization, missile defense, and research and development. “The White House is requesting $34.4 billion for nuclear modernization, $24.7 billion for missile defense programs and another $27.6 billion for space missile warning, missile tracking and space launch efforts,” per our defense team. “The research and development budget will also be the largest on record, increasing 9.5 percent from 2022 to hit $130.1 billion.” And then there’s this: “Overseas, the request includes $6.9 billion for the European Deterrence Initiative — up from a $3.6 billion request in 2022 — and $1.8 billion for expanding U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.” Meanwhile, Biden has also requested $60.4 billion for the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development budget , which is 14 percent above FY 2021 enacted levels. Around $1.6 billion has been earmarked for supporting Ukraine and other regional countries against insecurity. Now that Biden has shown Congress what he values, the question is if those on the Hill share his vision. The earliest indications are the president will once again have a fight on his hands. “[O]ur military needs more resources in this increasingly dangerous world than this budget provides,” Sen. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.), the retiring top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a statement. “President Biden’s defense budget reflects the world he wishes for — but not the world as it is. You simply can’t look at the world around us now and think this budget is adequate to confront all the threats we face.” Read the entirety of PAUL McLEARY, LEE HUDSON, CONNOR O’BRIEN and BRYAN BENDER’s report.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost around 17,000 personnel, 586 tanks, 1,694 armored combat vehicles, 302 artillery systems, 95 multiple-launch rocket systems, 123 warplanes, 127 helicopters, 1,150 vehicles, seven ships and 66 drones ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — ”According to available information, [Russia plans] to send military equipment and 150 soldiers from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Pacific Navy,” which is based in Vladivostok. “A unit of the 14th separate special-purpose brigade of the Eastern Military District (permanent deployment point city of Khabarovsk) has been formed, the deadline for business readiness is May this year.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “[T]he presence of up to four BTGRs from the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus involved in strengthening and protecting the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is noted. It is impossible to completely rule out the involvement of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus in the warfare on the territory of Ukraine.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “In the last 24 hours there has been no significant change to Russian Forces dispositions in occupied Ukraine. Ongoing logistical shortages have been compounded by a continued lack of momentum and morale amongst the Russian military, and aggressive fighting by the Ukrainians. Russia has gained most ground in the south in the vicinity of Mariupol where heavy fighting continues as Russia attempts to capture the port.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) — Russian forces are making no efforts to advance on Kyiv, but continue to launch long-range missiles. They’ve “made no progress moving towards Kyiv. They’ve made no progress elsewhere in the north.” (Senior U.S. defense official) — Nearly 5,000 people have been killed in Russia’s siege on Mariupol. ( Office of the Mayor of Mariupol) Global Response: — U.S. and Germany: The U.S., in coordination with the German government, will see six Growlers from Washington, D.C., arrive at Spangdahlem Air Base. The six jets won’t be used against Russian forces in Ukraine. (U.S. Department of Defense) Headlines: — Associated Press: “Russia shifts focus to try to grind Ukraine’s army in east” — The Washington Post: “Turkey, Romania work to defuse mines possibly floating from Ukraine’s shores” — Reuters: “Putin not seen ready to compromise ahead of peace talks” ZELENSKYY DETAILS TERMS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is open to a neutral status for his country and a “compromise” over the status of the Donbas region, POLITICO’s CAMILLE GIJS reported, citing the leader’s interview with Russian press. “Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are prepared to go through with it,” Zelenskyy told Russian news organizations Meduza, Kommersant, Novaya Gazeta and TV Rain, speaking in Russian throughout the interview. “For Ukraine, neutrality would mean dropping its long-held ambitions to join NATO, making it a buffer state between Russia and the Western military alliance. Moscow has been angry for years about the eastward expansion of NATO into the former Soviet Union,” Gus wrote. “Zelenskyy attached strict conditions for these possible concessions: Russian troops would have to withdraw to pre-February 24 positions and any peace deal would be put to the Ukrainian people in a referendum, which could take up to a year to organize. The referendum is a strict condition, Zelenskyy said, arguing Ukrainian must have a say in any potential territorial changes that would require constitutional revisions.” Zelenskyy also added that trying to recapture all of Russian-held territory could lead to World War III. Ukraine has been more willing to negotiate than their Russian counterparts to date, with Kyiv offering up more reasonable terms than Moscow’s more maximalist demands. It remains unclear if Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN and his team will seriously consider Zelenskyy’s offer, but experts say it’s slightly more likely since Russia has signaled lesser military aims due to Ukraine’s resistance. NIKOLAI PATRUSHEV, chief of Russia’s Security Council, today said that a change in government in Kyiv is not Russia’s goal in Ukraine. ABRAMOVICH AND PEACE NEGOTIATORS POSSIBLY POISONED: It’s believed Russian oligarch ROMAN ABRAMOVICH and Ukrainian peace negotiators were poisoned in Kyiv earlier this month, per a Wall Street Journal and Bellingcat investigation. “Following the meeting in the Ukrainian capital, Mr. Abramovich, who has shuttled between Moscow, Lviv and other negotiating venues, as well as at least two senior members of the Ukrainian team developed symptoms that included red eyes, constant and painful tearing, and peeling skin on their faces and hands,” WSJ’s YAROSLAV TROFIMOV and MAX COLCHESTER reported, citing unnamed sources. “They blamed the suspected attack on hard-liners in Moscow who they said wanted to sabotage talks to end the war. A person close to Mr. Abramovich said it wasn’t clear who had targeted the group.” “Western experts who looked into the incident said it was hard to determine whether the symptoms were caused by a chemical or biological agent or by some sort of electromagnetic-radiation attack, the people familiar with the matter said,” per WSJ. If Russia was behind what happened to Abramovich and the Ukrainians, it wouldn’t be a shocker. The Kremlin poisons dissidents and others who run afoul of Putin, most famously nearly killing Russian opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY with the nerve agent Novichok. ISRAEL MEETS ARAB STATES IN HISTORIC SUMMIT: The top diplomats from Bahrain, Israel, Egypt, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and the U.S. met Monday in Israel’s southern Negev Desert for a summit that produced no binding agreements but signaled greater cooperation in the future between Israel and the Arab states, per The Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said the six-party “Negev Summit” would have been “impossible to imagine” just a few years ago — before the Trump administration initiated the Abraham Accords — while Israeli Foreign Minister YAIR LAPID said the nations would work to make the gathering an annual event. The Arab governments, for their part, “thanked Israel for hosting but also maintained that it must make progress on implementing a two-state solution for the Palestinians with East Jerusalem as its capital,” Hudson writes. A parallel meeting was scheduled Monday between Jordan’s King ABDULLAH II and Palestinian Authority President MAHMOUD ABBAS, who has criticized the summit.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin’s LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn more. | | | IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | KIM THREATENS MORE EVEN MORE POWERFUL MISSILES: The state-run Korean Central News Agency quoted North Korean leader KIM JONG UN as vowing to develop more “powerful strike means,” as well as to “more vigorously perfect the nuclear war deterrence of the country,” per The Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM. “Only when one is equipped with the formidable striking capabilities, overwhelming military power that cannot be stopped by anyone, one can prevent a war, guarantee the security of the country and contain and put under control all threats and blackmails by the imperialists,” Kim reportedly said. Kim’s remarks come days after North Korea conducted its 12th round of weapons tests this year and its first intercontinental ballistic missile launch in more than four years. Experts say the weapon that was tested, the newly developed Hwasong-17, could fly as far as 9,320 miles, potentially being able to reach the U.S. But new details about the Hwasong-17 test, including discrepancies that appear in North Korea’s highly stylized launch video, hint at possible deception by Pyongyang — raising questions among analysts about what exact weapon was fired last Thursday, reports Reuters’ JOSH SMITH.
| | | U.S.-AUSTRALIA CYBER CO-OP: The U.S. and Australia are deepening their cyber and space cooperation, the Financial Times’ DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO reports while on a trip to the island nation with three American flag officers. “We’ve come a long way in a short time to be able to integrate the space and cyber domains,” Adm. JOHN AQUILINO, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said ahead of a visit to Pine Gap, the location of a top-secret joint U.S.-Australia intelligence complex. “We’re going to continue to work that and move the ball even further to synchronize those domains with our allies and partners.” Australia is increasingly an important ally to help the U.S. keep tabs on China in space. “If they can look up and help us characterize what’s happening in space, particularly with some of the things we’ve seen with the Chinese ... over the last couple of years, it’s important,” Gen. JAMES DICKINSON, head of U.S. Space Command, also told Sevastopulo. That could prove useful in tracking and countering China’s development of hypersonic weapons. So could enhancing the relationship in cyberspace. “Digital convergence is necessary from a defense standpoint, but it also gives us the potential to perform offensive operations, trying to stop capabilities like hypersonic weapons,” added Lt . Gen. CHARLES “TUNA” MOORE, deputy chief of U.S. Cyber Command. TOO MANY CYBER TARGETS: Our own MAGGIE MILLER makes an important but troubling point: Despite the administration’s repeated cyber warnings, there may just be too many targets to defend effectively. “The roster of potential cyber victims critical to American life includes banks, power companies, food manufacturers, drugmakers, fuel suppliers and defense contractors — all of which have fallen victim in recent years to hackers from Russia and elsewhere. So have government bodies ranging from local police departments to the agency that manages the U.S. nuclear arsenal,” she wrote. This has officials and lawmakers worried. “If a nation state brings its A-Team, the ability to be 100 percent effective on defense is not always there,” said Senate Intelligence Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.), pointing to concerns around the energy and financial sectors. “So how do we stay resilient, even if the bad guys get in?” Per Miller, the energy sector is at the top of the most-vulnerable list: “The U.S. has thousands of power plants, hundreds of thousands of miles of electrical transmission lines and millions of miles of pipelines carrying natural gas, oil or fuels like gasoline. Russia has taken notice, said the FBI, which cautioned in a recent alert to industry partners that hackers there had scanned the computer networks of at least five U.S. energy groups.”
| | | |   | | | | | | UKRAINE CRISIS CREATES DEFENSE CASH DASH: Defense companies are scrambling to grab their share of ballooning budgets in the U.S. and abroad sparked by Russia’s invasion — potentially causing tension between more established defense firms and younger upstarts as the Pentagon and allies figure out how to divvy up Ukraine funding, report our own Hudson and O'Brien. As the Biden administration unveils a beefed-up defense budget Monday, the fighting in Ukraine and renewed threats from Russia have prompted NATO allies in the U.K., Germany, Belgium, Romania, Italy, Poland, Norway and Sweden to promise to spend well above their planned levels, as well. According to four people who are either industry insiders or lobbyists, and who asked for anonymity to avoid violating agreements with employers and clients, the defense industry is approaching the attack from all angles — scheduling meetings with military program offices, briefing lawmakers and Hill staff, and trying to get a sense of how it can support the Pentagon. CANADA BUYING F-35S: Canada is pursuing a deal to purchase 88 F-35s from Lockheed Martin, an about-face for Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU who swore in 2015 to find another source for next-generation fighter jets, per our own ANDY BLATCHFORD. Trudeau’s government announced today that it will spend up to C$19-billion to buy warplanes to replace the Royal Canadian Air Force’s aging CF-18 fleet. The decision followed a competition that had narrowed the field to the F-35 and the Swedish Saab Gripen-E. Canada calls the fighter jet purchase the RCAF’s most significant investment in more than 30 years. Back in 2015, Trudeau had ruled out the F-35 as an option. Trudeau pledged at the time that, if elected, he’d scrap a controversial, sole-sourced contract struck by his Conservative predecessors to acquire F-35s. Trudeau also said he would not buy the Lockheed planes and that he intended to open a new procurement process to find a cheaper option.
| | | HOUSE DEMS SEEK CREDIT SUISSE INFO: Two leading House Democrats want information about Credit Suisse’s compliance with international sanctions targeting Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. “We are writing to seek information about a recent report that Credit Suisse asked hedge funds and other investors to destroy documents regarding yachts and private jets owned by Credit Suisse’s clients,” wrote Reps. CAROLYN MALONEY (D-N.Y.) and STEPHEN LYNCH (D-Mass.), respectively chair of the Oversight Committee and chair of the National Security subcommittee. They specifically cited a Financial Times report from this month indicating Credit Suisse asked investors to “destroy and permanently erase” information regarding links to yachts, private jets and other assets possibly held by sanctioned Russian oligarchs. “This report raises significant concerns about Credit Suisse’s compliance with the severe sanctions imposed by United States and its allies and partners on the architects and enablers of Russia’s brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and oligarchs in his inner circle,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to Credit Suisse CEO THOMAS GOTTSTEIN. The bank has until April 11 to produce information and documents.
| | | DISSING ‘LEADING WITH DIPLOMACY’: Former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO and former deputy national security adviser for strategy NADIA SCHADLOW — in conversation Monday at a Hudson Institute event — talked about Biden’s forthcoming National Security Strategy. The pair of former Trump aides also panned one of the current administration’s favorite foreign policy taglines. “I think what struck me about the Biden administration’s interim guidance was this phrase, ‘leading with diplomacy,’ disassociated from the underpinnings of power,” Schadlow said. “Diplomacy is a tool. It’s just a tool. But it’s based on fundamentals of power, whether it’s economic, military, or technological.” “As someone whose role was as America’s most senior diplomat, one might say, ‘No, no, no, it was me. I was all powerful,’” Pompeo added. “No, the truth of the matter is it was really good that we had a powerful military behind us. It was even more important that we had a powerful American economy behind us. It was yet, again, important that American energy was capable of delivering good outcomes for people across the world.” “Those were the things, those were the tools, the hard power that gave me the opportunity to sit across the table, to actually engage in a way that could get a beneficial outcome for the United States of America,” he continued. “To walk away from those, to not be prepared to have that capability so that you can demonstrate your will not to use them, is how good diplomatic outcomes are reached around the world.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America’s next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn more. | | | | | | — DANIEL SHAPIRO has joined the Atlantic Council as a distinguished fellow in the Middle East Programs’ Israel Initiative. Shapiro was formerly the U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration, a senior adviser to the special envoy for Iran and senior director for the Middle East and North Africa in the National Security Council. — ANDREW TABLER has joined K&L Gates as a government affairs analyst in the firm’s public policy and law practice. Tabler was formerly the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Senate affairs and a U.S. Navy officer.
| | | — ZEINA KARAM, The Associated Press: “Ukraine War Threatens Food Supplies in Fragile Arab World” — ALEXANDER BETTS, Foreign Affairs: “ The Ukrainian Exodus: Europe Must Reckon With Its Selective Treatment of Refugees” — GREG MYRE, NPR: “In Response to the War, Americans Flee Russia in Droves”
| | | — Singaporean Prime Minister LEE HSIEN LOONG visits the White House: In a meeting with Lee, Biden “will review efforts to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific and discuss Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine,” per the White House. — The Atlantic Council, 8:30 a.m.: “ A Conversation With the Baltic Presidents — with PAULA J. DOBRIANSKY, ALAR KARIS, EGILS LEVITS and GITANAS NAUSĖDA” — The Heritage Foundation, 9 a.m.: “ Putin’s War and the Threat from Communist China: An Address by Senator MARCO RUBIO — with DUSTIN CARMACK, DEAN CHENG, MICHAEL ELLIS and KEVIN ROBERTS” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: The Posture of United States European Command and United States Transportation Command — with JACQUELINE VAN OVOST and TOD WOLTERS” — House Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: Oversight of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Cyber Division — with BRYAN A. VORNDRAN” — Senate Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Defense Health Program — with R. SCOTT DINGLE, BRUCE L. GILLINGHAM, ROBERT I. MILLER, RONALD J. PLACE and DAVID J. SMITH” — Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: The Freely Associated States — with MARK LAMBERT, SIDDHARTH MOHANDAS and KEONE NAKOA” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Business Meeting” — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: “Confronting Russian Cyber Censorship — with F. JOSEPH DRESEN, ALENA EPIFANOVA, OLGA IRISOVA, SERGEY PARKHOMENKO and ANDREI SOLDATOV” — The Institute of World Politics, 10:30 a.m.: “Russia’s War on Ukraine — with DAVID SATTER” — The Atlantic Council, 1:30 p.m.: “ A Conversation With Minister of Defence of Germany CHRISTINE LAMBRECHT” — House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Legislative Hearing” — Senate Inteligence Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters” — Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 3:30 p.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Honoring Our Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics Act of 2021 — with KRISTINA KEENAN, SHANE LIERMANN, DENIS MCDONOUGH and CHRISTOPHER SLAWINSKI”
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who has never shown a willingness to compromise over the status of this newsletter. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
