Sweden and Finland backed by Western power during NATO move

By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, left, is welcomed by Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson in Harpsund on Wednesday, May 11, 2022. | Frank Augstein, Pool/AP Photo

With help from Paul McLeary

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As Sweden and Finland move to join NATO, two of their strongest partners are openly and quietly saying: “We’ve got your back.”

Both in public statements and behind-the-scenes communications, officials in the United States and United Kingdom have told their counterparts in Stockholm and Helsinki that they’ll protect the two countries from threats during the transition — namely from Russia.

London has been the most forthright. “It’s worth emphasizing that if Sweden were attacked and looked to us for help and support, then we would provide it, but it’s up to Sweden to make the request and to spell out exactly what support is requested,” British Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON said Wednesday during his visit to the country. “What we are saying emphatically is in the event of a disaster or in the event of an attack upon Sweden, then the U.K. would come to the assistance of Sweden with whatever Sweden requested.”

Hours later, the U.K. and Finland released a joint statement wherein they “confirmed that, should either country suffer a disaster or an attack, the United Kingdom and Finland will, upon request from the affected country, assist each other in a variety of ways, which may include military means.” However, both sides said the statement was no more than a “political declaration” — not a legally binding one.

But the message is clear: Britain will help Sweden and Finland defend themselves if asked to, providing a NATO-lite guarantee of “an attack on one is an attack on all.”

The U.S. hasn’t come out as forcefully as its neighbor across the pond. A Finnish official said America, alongside other European nations, has committed to a scaling up of planned joint exercises, naval visits, more intelligence exchanges and stronger political support. Basically, it’s a plus-up of the current relationship Finland has with these countries.

A Swedish official didn’t want to go into detail with NatSec Daily, saying it was “far too early and sensitive” for a discussion about protecting the Scandinavian nation during the NATO transition — even if Britain has already made such a commitment.

What seems clear is that Stockholm and Helsinki will proceed to ask to join the alliance, confident that their long-time friends and partners will back them should Russia try to raise hell over it. That means this period isn’t devoid of risk, but clear signals of Western support could keep that risk low.

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UKRAINE’S FM WANTED U.S. WEAPONS SOONER: The Biden administration shouldn’t have delayed in providing Ukraine with advanced weapons, Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA told our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER in an interview, assessing that the slow pace of delivery helped Russia in the early days of the invasion.

“[I]if we had been heard from the very beginning on all the weapons that we need to receive, if we didn’t have to spend hours and days explaining to partners in Europe and in the United States why we need specifically this weapon and not another one, we would have received all these weapons by now,” Kuleba said in the courtyard of the Foreign Ministry. “We would have trained all the people and the situation on the ground would have been much different, would have been much better.”

“This is where all of us lost time and allowed Putin to gain what he shouldn’t have,” he added.

A senior administration official pushed back on Kuleba’s comments to LARA SELIGMAN , noting that well before the Russian invasion, the United States provided “as much assistance as possible that they could put to immediate use.” The official noted Ukrainian officials themselves were asking the U.S. government to call specific countries to find Soviet-style weapons “because it’s what they knew how to use.”

“The secretary worked the phones nonstop in response to the shopping list that our Ukrainian partners put forward,” the official said.

It’s a rare moment of public distance between Washington and Kyiv, as both capitals have taken pains to show they’ve been in lockstep since the war started. While Ukrainian officials always called for more weapons, the undertone was that frank and respectful negotiations about such transfers were underway.

Now, Kuleba has let loose that there’s still frustration in Kyiv over initial reticence to arm Ukraine to the hilt.

He recalled a conversation he had in the first days of the war with U.S. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN. “I asked him that maybe it’s finally time to give Ukraine Patriots [surface-to-air missile systems], because, you know, it had been on the agenda for months,” he said. “And he said, ‘Dmytro, in principle, I mean, this, it could happen. But you should take into account that it will take at least two or three months to train your people for how to use them.’”

Wednesday morning, Kuleba tried to cover his tracks in a tweet: “Grateful to@SecBlinken &@SecDef for their 24/7 efforts over the past months to mobilize global support for Ukraine and get us the arms we need. Together, Ukraine and the US have solved numerous problems that seemed unsolvable. Any attempts to draw a wedge between us are futile.”

U.K. DEFENSE CHIEF SAYS PUTIN HAS ALREADY LOST IN UKRAINE: Sitting in a pleasant, sunny backyard in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, the U.K.’s Defense Secretary BEN WALLACE had some harsh words for Russian president VLADIMIR PUTIN, his generals, and the “pathetic” way they’re conducting their war in Ukraine.

“Our aim here is for Putin to fail in Ukraine,” Wallace told a small group of reporters, including our own PAUL McLEARY, gathered a day before he went to the Pentagon to huddle with Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN.

The Russian leader has “got to reconcile that in the long run, he's lost,” Wallace said. “So whatever happens in Ukraine, let's consider that Russia is a lesser country now than it was before this invasion.”

The butcher’s bill for the Kremlin is already staggering, with plenty of hard fighting ahead in Donbas and across Ukraine’s south still to come. Thousands of its troops are dead or wounded, including elite units that have been chewed up by Ukrainian hit-and-run tactics, and thousands more tanks and armored vehicles are little more than charred hulks littering Ukrainian roadways and fields.

Wallace said those losses can be blamed on incompetent Russian miltiary doctrine and leadership. “If in doubt, go back to Soviet tactics of massive bombardments and barrages with fairly inaccurate artillery, followed up by pushing yourself up one road and get whacked,” he said. “Their solution is just more cannon fodder … it's really sort of pathetic.”

For months before the Feb. 24 Russian invasion, some Western leaders fretted about sending lethal aid to Ukraine for fear of provoking Putin, but those days, for the Brits at least, appear to be over.

Lethal aid is something the Russians “totally understand,” Wallace said, “because if the shoe was on the other foot, they'd be doing exactly the same thing. So what we definitely see is they're not as agitated by lethal aid as you would think. They're more agitated by sanctions, because you can't hide that from your people. You can hide bodies, but you can't quite hide your inflation.”

In continuing to pump weapons and military equipment into the hands of the Ukrainian military, “the key has to be that we [need] to help Ukraine negotiate from a position of strength, not weakness. And I think that's the most important thing,” he said.

SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS BOYCOTT? “What if the United States held a summit and nobody came?” That’s the question our own NAHAL TOOSI sought to answer in her preview of next month’s Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles.

“Some foreign leaders are slamming Washington for planning to exclude three adversarial, non-democratic regimes — Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua — from the gathering, and threatening not to show up themselves. Others are simply wondering why the Biden administration hasn’t yet sent invitations for the event,” she wrote. "Just about everyone fears the agenda will be thin, offering few concrete plans to improve the region’s economy and trade links — the priority for many of the hemisphere’s leaders — while dealing more with U.S. concerns about migration. Even reports that the Biden administration is working on an ‘economic framework’ for the region are being met with shrugs in some corners as being too little at this stage of Biden’s presidency."

For an administration that likes to tout how close it is with allies, and for a president who promised early to reestablish strong ties with Latin American nations, this is quite the setback.

The White House is still sounding optimistic: “The Ninth Summit of the Americas remains the Biden-Harris Administration’s highest priority event for our hemisphere, and the United States looks forward to hosting a safe, and successful Summit of the Americas,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said in a statement.

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IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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REPORTER KILLED IN ISRAEL: SHIREEN ABU AKLEH, a veteran reporter for Al Jazeera and an American citizen, was killed Wednesday while covering an Israeli raid in the occupied West Bank, The Associated Press reported.

"The Israeli military initially suggested that Abu Akleh might have been killed by stray fire from Palestinians, but [Israeli Defense Minister BENNY] GANTZ was more cautious Wednesday evening," the AP reported. “'We are trying to figure out exactly what happened,' he said. 'I don’t have final conclusions.'"

ELAD STROHMAYER , a spokesperson for the Israeli embassy in the U.S., said in a statement that “we do not yet know what happened or who is responsible” for Abu Akleh’s death in Jenin, adding that “there is a chance it is from Palestinian fire.” As the AP notes, Al Jazeera and two reporters who were with the killed journalist blamed Israeli forces.

TOM NIDES, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, tweeted his hopes for a “thorough investigation into the circumstances of her death ,” though his remark was followed by an immediate call for him to do more.

“And what will you do with the evidence from that investigation? At what point do Palestinian lives actually start to matter for this administration?” MATT DUSS, Sen. BERNIE SANDERS’ (I-Vt.) foreign policy adviser, responded on the platform.

‘TOO LATE AND INEFFECTIVE’: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) have quite the juicy early exit interview with MICHAEL BROWN , the Defense Innovation Unit chief who’s leaving his post in September.

“We need to figure out how to follow the commercial market in a rapid way. We’re doing that in a slow way,” he told our own BRYAN BENDER. “If you use the same process to buy an F-35 that you buy a software package,” Brown added, “you are going to be way too late and ineffective in doing that.”

He complained that DIU, by relying on organizations such as the Army Contracting Command in New Jersey to process its contracts, has been hobbled. “We never could get the responsiveness to be able to deliver these contracts in 60 to 90 days, which continues to be our target.”

Another problem? What DIU does is a drop in the bucket compared to the whole of the Pentagon’s acquisition process.

“So [with a] hundred different vendors, we brought in $3.7 billion of contract value,” Brown said. “That sounds like a pretty big number, but over that time the Defense Department’s probably bought more than a trillion dollars’ worth of items. We’re still very, very small.”

DIU was created not only to bring in the hottest, newest tech to help the U.S. military, but also to accelerate the Defense Department’s Byzantine acquisition process. What we’re hearing from Brown, who’s been in his job since 2018, is that DIU to date hasn’t fully succeeded in its mission.

MARSOC’S NEW OPCON: U.S. Marine Corps Special Operations Command is working on a new operation concept that will move the service beyond the Iraq and Afghanistan years, Breaking Defense’s ANDREW EVERSDEN reported.

The “essence” of the new operating concept, called Strategic Shaping and Reconnaissance, is “that creating at the tactical edge … a unit that has the potential to be the joint and interagency” unit operating near the shore, Col. IAN FLETCHER told an audience at Modern Day Marine in Washington, D.C.

What’s the definition of this new idea? Per Fletcher’s slide deck: “special reconnaissance, preparation of the environment, and the employment and synchronization of kinetic and non-kinetic effects across all domains and operational environments to enable the joint force.”

That’s about a seven on the 10-point Pentagon jargon scale. In normal-person speak, MARSOC is shifting emphasis from heavy irregular warfare, like in the Middle East, to littoral warfare and reconnaissance — clearly with China in mind.

To do this, MARSOC will stand up a second O-6-level operational headquarters.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– OPENING STATEMENTS FOR CHINA PANEL: On Thursday, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which provides Congress with the latest updates on what Beijing is up to, will hold a hearing on China’s activities in South and Central Asia. NatSec Daily got a sneak peak of the opening remarks by the hearing’s co-chairs CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW and RANDY SCHRIVER.

Here are some key passages from both their remarks:

• “Some countries are reconsidering the wisdom of pursuing ever-closer economic ties with China. Most notably, in India, like in the United States, there is a growing awareness that trade and investment with China are not only economic issues, but also national security issues.”
• “Russia’s diminished economic power and poor military performance [in Ukraine] may grant China an opportunity to deepen its influence in Central Asia.”
• “Today, China is actively working to shape the regional security architecture to its benefit through joint military exercises, multilateral organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and even the direct presence of armed forces in Tajikistan.”
• “The United States, India, and other countries in South Asia face a growing military challenge as PLA soldiers encroach on China’s borders with Bhutan, Nepal, and India. At the same time the PLA Navy is expanding its presence and improving its capabilities to deploy and conduct major operations in the Indian Ocean.”

You can find an agenda for the entirety of the hearing right here.

ADMIN WANTS TURKEY WEAPONS SALE: The Biden administration has asked leaders in Congress to approve the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, a clear bid to strengthen Washington-Ankara ties even as views of the NATO ally sour on Capitol Hill.

“The proposed weapons sale, which was sent to congressional leaders last month, highlights how Turkey is hoping to leverage its role as a facilitator of Russia-Ukraine peace talks and its backing of the Ukrainian military as a way to repair frayed relations with Washington and obtain new weapons. The potential deal would include missiles, radar and electronics for Turkey’s F-16s, representing a significant upgrade for the country’s jet fighters,” The Wall Street Journal’s JARED MALSIN first reported.

“U.S. officials familiar with the request said the administration could be using the missile deal to gauge the level of support in Congress for a separate proposal to sell 40 new F-16s to Turkey,” he continued.

U.S.-Turkey ties haven’t been the same since Ankara chose to buy Russian military equipment in 2017 and President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN increasingly turned more authoritarian. Turkey backing Ukraine, though, seems to have improved the situation.

‘COMPLETELY IRRESPONSIBLE’: Loyal NatSec Daily readers may recall our Monday story, in which nine people told us that ELIZABETH RICHARD, Biden’s nominee as a top State Department counterterrorism official, asked a small military force to leave the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon after she assessed they weren’t needed to safeguard the mission following the killing of Iran’s QASSEM SOLEIMANI.

We’ve received some fierce pushback, with former high-level officials who know Richard arguing we accepted the narrative of her political opponents and possibly damaged the 30-year foreign service officer’s confirmation chances.

NatSec Daily did not “seem to have made any attempt to get the other side or to look more into Ambassador Richard’s extensive experience leading teams in some of the world’s most challenging and dangerous environments. Even a cursory understanding of her background would have indicated how seriously she takes the safety of U.S. personnel and facilities,” JEFFREY FELTMAN, the former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon and assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, wrote to us.

“This was completely irresponsible,” ANNE PATTERSON, the former ambassador to Egypt and Pakistan, also wrote in. “There is a wide array of foreign policy retired and active duty personnel you could have called to find out the facts: she coordinated with the Department; she had the support of her security personnel; and she was the person on the ground with the best information about Hezbollah.”

We take these points seriously. We were well aware that the majority of our sources wanted this information out there the day before Richard’s confirmation hearing.

We also noted Richard’s viewpoints high in the story — in the second paragraph — followed by a third paragraph of a few people saying her arguments were sound. We felt confident that Richard was well represented before we delved into the critiques.

NatSec Daily stands by the piece and still believes it was fair. But could we have done a better job signaling the clear agenda that prompted the story and more robustly questioned the motives of high-up Trump administration officials? Yes, and we’ll take that lesson into future reports.

We always appreciate engaging with our readers and hearing their feedback. We’re thankful to Ambassadors Feltman and Patterson for their emails and we hope to stay engaged.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

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— DAN FELDMAN announced on LinkedIn that he will be leaving his post as chief of staff to climate envoy JOHN KERRY to join Covington & Burling’s Environmental, Social, and Governance, Business and Human Rights, and Global Public Policy practices. Feldman’s departure was first reported last month.

— ANDREW HIGGINS and BORYANA DZHAMBAZOVA, photographs by NANNA HEITMANN, The New York Times: “ Once Best Friends, Bulgaria Takes a Stand Against Russia”

— CASEY MICHEL, POLITICO Magazine: “The Covert Operation to Back Ukrainian Independence that Haunts the CIA”

— NANCY A. YOUSSEF and NATALIA OJEWSKA, The Wall Street Journal: “Russia’s War in Ukraine Sparks Bomb-Shelter Revival in Poland”

— Biden welcomes the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and ASEAN Secretary-General LIM JOCK HOI to the White House for a dinner as part of the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit.

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: The Posture of the Department of the Navy in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2023 and the Future Years Defense Program — with DAVID BERGER, MICHAEL GILDAY and CARLOS DEL TORO”

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: U.S. Efforts to Support Ukraine Against Russian Aggression — with KAREN DONFRIED, JESSICA LEWIS, ERIN MCKEE and BETH VAN SCHAACK”

— U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: “China’s Activities and Influence in South and Central Asia — with CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, JENNIFER BRICK MURTAZASHVILI, RAFFAELLO PANTUCCI, M. TAYYAB SAFDAR, RANDALL SCHRIVER and more”

— House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the United States Coast Guard — with KARL SCHULTZ”

— House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: National Reconnaissance Office and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Fiscal Year 2023 Budget and Posture — with CHRISTOPHER J. SCOLESE and ROBERT D. SHARP ”

— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Department of the Army Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request — with JAMES MCCONVILLE and CHRISTINE WORMUTH”

— House Intelligence Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Military Intelligence Program Budget”

— House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Innovative Care Delivery at VA: Partnering to Improve Infrastructure and Operational Efficiency — with MICHAEL D. BRENNAN, CATINA LATHAM, ROBERT P. MCDIVITT and PATRICK MURRAY”

— The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: “ Aerospace Nation: Launch of New Center for UAV and Autonomy Studies (MI-UAS) — with TIM GRAYSON, CAITLIN LEE and DAVID OCHMANEK”

— Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: Pathways to Procurement Innovation — with SORAYA CORREA, GRANT M. SCHNEIDER and ELIZABETH SULLIVAN”

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Indiana University Public Policy Institute, 10:30 a.m.: “Building Skills for National Security and Competitiveness: Best Practice from Indiana — with SAMEEKSHA DESAI, SUJAI SHIVAKUMAR, YECENIA TOSTADO, PETE YONKMAN, TODD YOUNG and more”

— House Appropriations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Army Installations and Quality of Life — with JASON T. EVANS, MICHAEL A. GRINSTON and RACHEL JACOBSON”

— Washington Post Live, 10:30 a.m.: “World Stage: The Rt. Hon. BEN WALLACE MP, U.K. Secretary of State for Defense — with DAVID IGNATIUS”

— Americas Society/Council of the Americas and the State Department, 12 p.m.: “ 52nd Annual Washington Conference on the Americas — with LUIS ALMAGRO, ANTONY BLINKEN, BILL HAGERTY, ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, BEN SASSE and more”

— House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Air Force Projection Forces Aviation Programs and Capabilities Related to the Fiscal Year 2023 President’s Budget Request — with ANDREW HUNTER and DAVID S. NAHOM”

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: The Way Forward on U.S. North Korea Policy — with SUNG-YOON LEE, JOHN S. PARK and SUE MI TERRY”

— House Homeland Security Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Examining DHS’s Efforts to Combat the Opioid Epidemic — with STEVE CAGAN, PETE FLORES and BRIAN SULC”

— House Armed Services Committee, 4:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Reviewing Department of Defense Science and Technology Strategy, Policy, and Programs for Fiscal Year 2023: Accelerating the Pace of Innovation — with KRISTEN J. BALDWIN, PAUL D. MANN, WILLIAM B. NELSON and HEIDI SHYU”

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who says “it’s far too early and sensitive” for discussions about renewing our contracts.

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