|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
A U.S. Army specalist provides security for a 75th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron C-130J Super Hercules during unloading operations at an unidentified location in Somalia, June 28, 2020. | Tech. Sgt. Christopher Ruano/Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa via AP | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint President JOE BIDEN plans to deploy 500 troops to Somalia to fight al-Shabab, escalating America’s long-term counterterrorism mission in the East African nation without defining a clear exit plan. Two hours after The New York Times’ CHARLIE SAVAGE and ERIC SCHMITT reported on the decision, a senior administration official told journalists the troops will help train Somali forces and offer intelligence support, but the ultimate goal is “to try to dislodge Shabab from what is a significant amount of territory that it at least purports to govern and hold.” Biden and his team are worried that the terrorist group, which is affiliated with al Qaeda, greatly threatens Americans at home and abroad, as well as U.S. allies. By adding back in the majority of troops former President DONALD TRUMP withdrew from Somalia in 2020, the U.S. believes it can more effectively stop any potential attacks. Biden thus accepted Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN’s proposal in early May, moving troops already in the region into the the country so they don’t have to keep commuting to work. “Persistent presence is an important component of our approach to counterterrorism and in Somalia,” the senior administration official said. This move represents one of the biggest known increases of a U.S. counterterrorism mission in the Biden era. In July, the president didn’t even approve the single drone strike that targeted Shabab militants attacking an American-trained elite Somali force. Now, he’s directly authorizing a near-reversal of his predecessor’s policy. Lawmakers have yet to see the administration’s new Somalia strategy, a House Democrat told NatSec Daily on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive talks, adding that it’s unclear the internal review had been completed before the announcement. “How do you make a decision like this before your strategy is finalized?” the Congress member said. Asked about this, the senior administration official said that the NSC, Pentagon and other parts of the government have had “extensive discussions” with their legislative counterparts “as [the strategy] has been finalized.” As for what U.S. troops would need to accomplish in order for them to withdraw, the senior administration official didn’t have a clear answer: “Counterterrorism does not make for quick fixes. That is true of many national security problems — it is certainly true of terrorism threats, especially terrorism threats that have the potency of al-Shabab. But what we think this offers is a chance to at least continue to manage and degrade that threat in close coordination with our Somali partners, rather than permitting it to escalate further and pose an increased risk to Americans in particular.” Biden is now the third successive president to pursue a counterterrorism strategy in Somalia without a clear picture of the endgame, save for unrelenting risk mitigation. It might improve America’s military mission there and it may even make Americans safer. What it won’t do, to the chagrin of those to Biden’s left, is wind down the “forever wars” he promised to end. Biden’s decision “feeds into the larger problem with our CT strategy,” the House Democrat said. “We know that a kinetic-centric targeting approach doesn’t actually address the drivers of violence. And yet we continue on the same approach despite the fact that it hasn’t worked in Somalia, the Sahel, or frankly anywhere else.” “The administration should focus on the truly urgent task: reassessing the fulsome support the U.S. gives the broken system and corrupt elites in Somalia, something shuttling 400 or 500 U.S. troops around can’t address,” the Heritage Foundation’s JOSHUA MESERVEY piled on.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: For over 40 years, America’s Soldiers have trusted the proven aircraft technologies of the team behind DEFIANT X®
Lockheed Martin Sikorsky and Boeing are the U.S. Army Aviation’s trusted industrial base. Together, they are Team DEFIANT and they will deliver DEFIANT X®, a transformational, high-speed, highly maneuverable helicopter, bringing future capabilities to Army Aviation. Learn more. | | | | | | 1 MILLION: America has reached a horrific, but expected, threshold: 1 million dead from Covid-19. “The Covid-19 mortality count—just over one million and still rising—is reflected in death certificates recorded by the CDC. Of these certificates, at least 90% list Covid-19 as the underlying cause of death, the CDC said. The remainder list the disease as a contributing cause,” wrote The Wall Street Journal’s JON KAMP, STEPHANIE STAMM and ELLIOT BENTLEY. “Epidemiologists say the true death toll from Covid-19 is likely even higher, reflecting missed diagnoses, especially early in the pandemic when the disease was new and tests were scarce. The CDC says excess deaths associated with the pandemic, or deaths above averages from recent years, which also reflect other issues during the pandemic including a surge in drug overdoses, have reached about 1.12 million.” This is a tragedy, and one experts note could’ve been further mitigated had the government moved faster and the public been more willing to take vaccines. Now we officially know that Covid-19 has taken more than twice the number of American lives as World War II. UKRAINE GAINS NORTHEAST GROUND: “Ukrainian forces in the northeastern region of Kharkiv have regained territory at the Russian border,” the WSJ’s VIVIAN SALAMA reported. “Kharkiv regional governor OLEH SINEGUBOV said Monday that even as Ukraine wins back territory seized by Russia in recent months, the situation across the region remains extremely volatile. He warned civilians not to become complacent, adding that Russia is focusing its efforts on holding its positions and is preparing an offensive in the area of Izyum, a town southeast of Kharkiv where Russia has established the forward headquarters of its operations to conquer Donbas,” she continued. A U.S. defense official earlier today told reporters that Ukrainian forces had pushed back Russian troops near Kharkiv to within 3 to 4 kilometers of the Russian border. These are more indications that Russia is struggling mightily to make any permanent gains in Ukraine, as the Western-backed country continues to resist effectively. Over the weekend, the U.K. Defense Ministry said Russia had lost 33 percent of the troops with which it launched the invasion. NATO EXERCISES BEGIN: One of the biggest-ever NATO exercises in the Baltics has begun in Estonia, with 15,000 troops from 10 countries taking part in “Hedgehog.” The exercises, which will last until June 3, were planned before Russia invaded Ukraine, the BBC’s MALU CURSINO reported. “The exercise is taking place 64km (40 miles) from Russia's nearest military base. It is intended to simulate an attack from Russia on Estonia,” Cursino wrote. Sweden and Finland, two countries that recently declared their intention to join the alliance, are part of the drills. Other NATO exercises are happening simultaneously in Poland, North Macedonia and Lithuania. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | U.S. TO REMOVE 5 DEFUNCT TERROR GROUPS FROM BLACKLIST: The Biden administration is set to remove five inactive terrorist groups from the Foreign Terrorist Organizations list, a politically fraught move that’s likely to anger some allies and domestic opponents. “The organizations are the Basque separatist group ETA , the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo, the radical Jewish group Kahane Kach and two Islamic groups that have been active in Israel, the Palestinian territories and Egypt,” the Associated Press’ MATTHEW LEE reported . “In separate notices to lawmakers, the State Department said the terrorism designations for the five groups will be formally removed when the determinations are published in the Federal Register, which is expected this coming week.” The U.S. is currently negotiating with Iran over whether to delist the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps , the powerful and influential branch of Iran’s military and economy. Biden’s team says they don’t want to do it, while Tehran won’t allow the U.S. to reenter the 2015 nuclear deal without the move. While the IRGC won’t come off in this round of lifts, it’s possible the news will further ignite that debate. Meanwhile, Republicans are already signaling their displeasure with the decision. “Why is the Administration delisting Terror Groups that have targeted our Spanish, Japanese, Israeli, and Egyptian allies? @SecBlinken must answer for this,” Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, tweeted about the AP’s story. “If under a national security waiver, what is the justification? If it is alleged that groups have changed their conduct, where is the evidence of that?”
| | | NSO SAYS ‘NO’ TO THE NARRATIVE: Our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity report that Israel-headquartered NSO Group, makers of the spyware Pegasus, has begun to push back on the critics who say the surveillance tool is increasingly used to target governments, not terrorists. “We know how many lives have been saved because of Pegasus around the world — including big terror attacks that were prevented because of Pegasus,” ARIELLA BEN ABRAHAM, a global communications executive at NSO, told our own MAGGIE MILLER during an interview last week. The company, normally quiet and secretive, has seemingly decided it needs better PR following multiple reports of users abusing Pegasus to spy on officials, journalists, human rights activists and more. Most recently, politics in Spain have been upended following revelations that Pegasus was found inside technology belonging to Catalan and Spanish politicians, including the prime minister. The U.S. blacklisted NSO Group over such indiscretions and some lawmakers aren’t buying the company’s narrative. “They’ve been claiming for ages that they are the good guys,” Sen. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told Miller during a phone call last week. “I hope that democracies are not going to just take this NSO statement that spyware is going after terrorists and pedophiles at face value.”
| | | |   | | | | | | CAVOLI ON DECK: Gen. CHRISTOPHER CAVOLI “can appear both the most and least likely of candidates” to be NATO’s military chief if confirmed by the Senate, per an excellent profile by our own PAUL McLEARY. On the one hand, he wrote his senior thesis at Princeton on “The Effect of Earthworms on the Vertical Distribution of Slime Molds in the Soil.” On the other hand, Cavoli has “served as the head of the Army’s Europe/Africa command since 2018,” and “lived in Germany for the past four years spearheading a series of NATO exercises that have been the largest and most ambitious since the 1980s, bringing dozens of nations — including non-NATO partners Finland and Sweden — into the fold in unprecedented ways.” Also, per McLeary, Cavoli sweats the small stuff. Beyond growing exercises and greater coordination between NATO and the U.S., Cavoli “has also thrown himself into more intricate issues such as launching studies of railroad gauges and transportation infrastructure in Eastern Europe, which often still use Warsaw Pact standards, in an effort to smooth the movement of NATO troops and materiel.”
| | | SENATE GOP IN KYIV: Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL led a delegation of his party to Kyiv, meeting with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and getting a situation report on the war. McConnell, joined by Sens. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.) and JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), was told by Zelenskyy that their presence showed America’s bipartisan support for Ukraine’s resistance. “Russia is committing genocide against the Ukrainian people,” Zelenskyy also told the delegation. Putin "commits war crimes that horrify the whole world — torture, mass executions, rape. Europe has not seen such crimes since World War II.” In a statement released later Saturday, McConnell confirmed the senators had left Ukraine after seeing “firsthand the courage, unity, and resolve of the Ukrainian people.” “The Ukrainians are fighting bravely against a deranged invader and have already succeeded beyond skeptics’ wildest dreams. They are willing and determined to keep fighting to victory. Ukraine is not asking anybody else to fight their fight. They only ask for the tools they need for self-defense,” McConnell said. McConnell is working with his counterpart, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER to pass a new $40 billion aid package to fortify Ukraine’s defenses.
| | | ‘CONSEQUENCES’ FOR SWEDEN AND FINLAND: Russia is warning Sweden and Finland of unspecified “consequences” should they go through with joining NATO, as both countries have now officially announced. “This is another serious mistake with far-reaching consequences,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister SERGEI RYABKOV, who has a long history of blustering, said Monday. Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, however, seemed to downplay the expected moves, saying Moscow had no issues with Helsinki and Stockholm — for now. "But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response," Putin told the leaders of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. "What that [response] will be — we will see what threats are created for us." Some analysts quickly noted that Putin didn’t offer a reflexive aversion to NATO expansion , a policy decision some suggest partly led Russia to invade Ukraine. What does seem to be a red line for him is if, once joining NATO, the alliance increases its presence inside Swedish and Finnish territory. Russia has continually threatened all kinds of “military-technical” responses to nations countering its ambitions in Ukraine and grander strategic aims, though it still remains unclear what, exactly, such retribution would look like.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — JIM GAVRILIS has been named president and chief executive officer of High Point Aerotechnologies LLC, a new holding company of Highlander Partners. He is a former U.S. Army officer with more than 24 years of experience in command and staff. — LAURA D. TAYLOR-KALE has been nominated to serve as assistant secretary of Defense for industrial base policy. She currently serves as the fellow for innovation and economic competitiveness at the Council on Foreign Relations. — YOHANNES ABRAHAM has been nominated to serve as U.S. representative to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; HEIDE B. FULTON has been nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to Uruguay; DAVID PRESSMAN has been nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to Hungary; and CALVIN SMYRE has been nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to the Bahamas. Abraham currently serves as deputy assistant to the president, chief of staff and executive secretary of the National Security Council. Fulton currently serves as deputy assistant secretary of State in the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs. Pressman previously served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations for special political affairs. Smyre has served for 48 years as an elected representative in the Georgia General Assembly. — HEATHER WILLIAMS is joining the Center for Strategic and International Studies as the director of the Project on Nuclear Issues. She was formerly a senior lecturer for defense studies at King’s College London.
| | | — HUIZHONG WU and DAKE KANG, The Associated Press: “Uyghur County in China Has Highest Prison Rate in the World” — NATALIA OJEWSKA and IAN LOVETT, photographs by SASHA MASLOV, The Wall Street Journal: “Ukrainian Refugees Are Heading Home in Droves” — CHICO HARLAN and STEFANO PITRELLI, The Washington Post: “Russian Oligarchs Loved Luxe Sardinia. Now They’re Frozen out of Paradise.”
| | | — ELIZABETH ALLEN, the State Department’s senior official for public diplomacy and public affairs, travels to Paris. — DEREK CHOLLET , counselor of the State Department, leads an interagency delegation to Chisinau, Moldova. — The Atlantic Council, 8:45 a.m.: “NEXUS 22: A Symposium at the Intersection of Defense, National Security and Autonomy — with MARC ANDREESSEN, MIKE BROWN, AUGUST COLE, MICHÈLE FLOURNOY, NAND MULCHANDANI and more” — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: “The Digital Component of Ukraine’s Resistance to Russian Aggression — with GIORGI ALEKSIDZE, OLEKSANDR BORNYAKOV, MYKHAILO FEDOROV, ANATOLY MOTKIN, VIKTORIYA TIGIPKO and more” — House Appropriations Committee, 9 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration — with BILL NELSON” — House Homeland Security Committee, 9 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Creating a More Resilient Nation: Stakeholder Perspectives — with CHRIS CURRIE, GEORGE DUNLAP and ORLANDO ROLÓN” — House Intelligence Committee, 9 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena” — House Appropriations Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 United States Army Budget — with JAMES C. MCCONVILLE and CHRISTINE WORMUTH” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: “ China’s Global Ambitions Under XI JINPING — with JUDE BLANCHETTE and BATES GILL” — Senate Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Funding Request and Budget Justification for the Air Force and Space Force — with CHARLES Q. BROWN JR., FRANK KENDALL and JOHN W. RAYMOND” — The Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: “ The U.S. and Poland: A Transatlantic Pillar in an Era of Volatility and War — with MARK BRZEZINSKI, DANIEL FRIED, AARON KOREWA, GEORGETTE MOSBACHER, KATARZYNA PISARSKA and MARTA POSLAD” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: “Press Briefing: Previewing Biden’s Trip to Asia — with VICTOR CHA, MATTHEW P. GOODMAN and MICHAEL J. GREEN” — The United States Institute of Peace, 11 a.m.: “China, India and Pakistan: Standing at the Brink of Crisis — with DANIEL MARKEY, GEORGE MOOSE, LYNN RUSTEN, ANDREW SCOBELL, VIKRAM SINGH and YUN SUN” — The Potomac Officers Club, 12 p.m.: “Second Annual Industrial Space Defense Summit — with STEVE BUTOW, JAMES DICKINSON, PAUL FERRARO, WALTER ‘ROCK’ MCMILLAN, AARON OELRICH and more” — Axios, 12:30 p.m.: “ Examining the Cyber Threat Landscape in 2022 — with KATE CHARLET, JOHN KATKO and LAUREN ZABIEREK” — House Appropriations Committee, 1 p.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: United States Indo-Pacific Command — with JOHN C. AQUILINO and PAUL J. LACAMERA” — The R Street Institute, 1 p.m.: “Birth Control in the Military: Coverage, Concerns and Cost-Sharing — with EILEEN HUCK, COURTNEY JOSLIN and LORY MANNING” — House Appropriations Committee, 1:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement — with TAE JOHNSON” — The Brookings Institution, 2 p.m.: “Threats to American democracy — with JOHN R. ALLEN, KEESHA MIDDLEMASS, ISABEL V. SAWHILL, WILLIAM TAUBMAN, DARRELL M. WEST and more” — The Government Executive Media Group, 2 p.m.: “Securing the Future: New Approaches for DoD Application Management — with DANIEL Q. BRADFORD, CADE M. SAIE, ROGER ‘ROC’ DI ROCCO, TAMMY SURRATT, LLOYD GRANVILLE and GEORGE JACKSON” — House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Army Modernization Programs — with DOUGLAS R. BUSH, JAMES M. RICHARDSON and ERIK C. PETERSON” — House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Securing the DotGov: Examining Efforts to Strengthen Federal Network Cybersecurity — with CHRISTOPHER DERUSHA, ERIC GOLDSTEIN, CHARLES H. ROMINE and DAVID SHIVE” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: Modernization Efforts of the Department of the Air Force in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2023 and the Future Years Defense Program — with JOSEPH GUASTELLA, DAVID NAHOM and DUKE RICHARDSON” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: “The View From Ukraine on War and Recovery — with MAX BERGMANN, KNUT DETHLEFSEN, ANDREW LOHSEN, SEVGIL MUSAIEVA and HALYNA YANCHENKO” — House Armed Services Committee, 4:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget for Nuclear Forces and Atomic Energy Defense Activities — with JAMES DAWKINS, JILL HRUBY, JOHN PLUMB, DEBORAH ROSENBLUM and JOHNNY WOLFE” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who says the process behind this newsletter is a “broken system” run by “corrupt elites.” | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin Sikorsky and Boeing – the team behind DEFIANT X® – is the U.S. Army’s Industrial Base
As the Army modernizes its helicopter fleet to carry Soldiers into the future, they face a choice between sustaining good-paying American jobs with the military’s diverse, established industrial base … or starting from scratch. The future is at stake for our Soldiers and American workers. DEFIANT X® is the best choice for the Army’s mission and America’s future. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
