‘The war is not even half-over’: In Washington, Ukraine’s leaders beg for aid

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Wednesday Jun 22,2022 08:40 pm
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
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By Lara Seligman, Paul McLeary and Quint Forgey

Members of Ukraine's parliament and the U.S. Senate pose for a photo.

A bipartisan group of senators meets with members of Ukraine's parliament June 15, 2022, on Capitol Hill. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

With help from Alex Ward, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman

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Ukrainian officials are urgently making the rounds in Washington, D.C., this month to lock in support for their cause, before Americans lose interest in a war that increasingly looks like a grinding and deadly stalemate.

Kyiv fears it might fail to preserve what has thus far been overwhelmingly bipartisan support in Congress for sending arms and assistance to Ukraine amid pressing domestic issues in the U.S. — including skyrocketing gas prices, baby formula shortages and what will be a wild midterm election season.

Images from Ukraine are no longer blanketing the airwaves or front pages, in part because it’s become extremely dangerous to send reporters to the front lines. And some American lawmakers are beginning to criticize the billions of dollars in assistance that President JOE BIDEN has provided to Kyiv since the start of the war.

But Ukraine needs money and weapons now more than ever if they are to have any hope of repelling Russian forces from their land, OLEKSANDRA “SASHA” USTINOVA, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, told POLITICO last Friday.

Russian and Ukrainian forces remain locked in a heated artillery battle in the Donbas region this week. Hundreds of civilians are said to be holed up in Sievierodonetsk’s Azot chemical plant, as Russia tightens its grip on the city. Meanwhile, Moscow captured several more settlements in the eastern Donbas and pounded Kharkiv in a renewed offensive against Ukraine’s second-largest city.

“I understand that people are getting tired of war … so it is critical for us to keep this pressure from the media,” Ustinova said. “That’s why we keep coming here and asking, ‘please help us,’ because the war is not even half-over. It’s worse now, and we need more weapons now than we ever used to.”

The Ukrainian government is working to counteract the Russian narrative that by the time winter rolls around, the U.S. will be consumed by its own post-midterm political wrangling while Europe struggles with scarce gas supplies and soaring energy prices.

Moscow’s tactic is to prolong the war until the West tires of the conflict, said DAVID ARAKHAMIA, the majority leader of Ukraine’s parliament and the chief negotiator with Russia.

“Everybody will be fully distracted from Ukraine. Then, they have an opportunity to push us into what they call peace on their own terms,” Arakhamia said — referring to the capitulation of Ukrainian territories in the Donbas and possibly even more land in the country’s east.

This week, Kyiv is pressing U.S. lawmakers to increase funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative — signed into law as part of last year’s National Defense Authorization Act — in this year’s defense policy bill, the Ukrainian officials said.

Their argument is that, even if Ukraine defeats Russia in the coming months, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN will continue to pose a threat. Continued U.S. support, they assert, will give Kyiv critical leverage in any future negotiations with Moscow.

“Our neighbor is not going to go away, even if we defeat. I mean, he’s still going to be there, and we will need weapons, the air defense systems and stuff to protect us,” Ustinova said. “That will be a very clear message for Putin that the United States is backing Ukraine, so it’s not like a one-time supplemental.”

But Ukraine worries U.S. lawmakers will try to politicize the conflict ahead of the midterm elections — a move that plays directly into Putin’s hands, said Ustinova, who expects Moscow to invest in spreading division on social media and elsewhere.

“We know it might be very politicized, especially during the election campaign, honestly, in midterms. And that’s a huge threat for us,” Ustinova said. “Once it gets politicized, we’re going to lose support, and that’s in favor of Russians.”

Already, some U.S. lawmakers are starting to hint that they may not support additional aid packages for Ukraine unless the Biden administration shows it can account for every single dollar of assistance. Most prominently, Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) held up a $40 billion package, demanding that Congress appoint a special inspector general to monitor the funds.

Ukrainian officials said they’d be more than happy to have an independent watchdog on the ground overseeing the weapons. In fact, they’ve been asking for just that. But Paul refused to meet with the Ukrainian delegation while it was in town, Arakhamia said.

“We have been asking … begging you to send people, and then you come up with an amendment saying ‘we want to put in [a special inspector general]?’” Ustinova added of Paul’s efforts. “Yes, please do.”

Meanwhile, Pentagon officials are currently weighing sending four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to Ukraine in the next aid package, potentially doubling the number of those weapons on the battlefield. The U.K. and Germany have also promised similar systems; meanwhile, German self-propelled howitzers arrived in Ukraine this week.

But Ustinova said that’s not enough; Ukraine also needs longer-range rockets to gain a critical edge on a battlefield that now stretches for hundreds of miles in either direction.

“The Russians are 200 kilometers on our land,” Ustinova said. “To shoot them there, we need a long-range [weapon] to be used on our territory, because otherwise, it’s just a ping pong game of artillery.”

In addition, Kyiv says it needs more advanced air defense systems — such as the joint U.S.-Norway Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System that currently defends Washington — as well as sophisticated long-range drones like the Army’s MQ-1C Gray Eagle.

The officials said Ukrainian forces could benefit from starting work now on learning how to operate weapons that the U.S. hasn’t yet approved, many of which require months of training. For example, if they’d begun practicing on the HIMARs weeks ago, before Washington officially decided to send the rocket launchers, they could have already been in the fight.

The U.S. has declared that it won’t offer training unless there’s a “political decision” to send the weapons, Ustinova said. But this condition isn’t written into law, she argued.

“We need it faster … so by the time you get there … we’ll just have people trained. Maybe we can buy something later,” she said. “I mean, it just makes sense.”

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The Inbox

SOUTH KOREA SOURS ON CHINA: Continuing his chats with South Korean officials and experts while in Seoul, our own ALEX WARD keeps hearing that China is becoming an increasingly unpopular country on the peninsula.

Roughly 70 percent of South Koreans now see China as the greatest threat facing their nation, one of the highest totals ever recorded. According to Alex’s reporting, China lost a significant amount of goodwill when it retaliated against South Korean companies in 2017 for installing a powerful U.S. missile-defense system.

Views of China have declined dramatically in South Korea since then, and locals now say the U.S. is more important to the nation’s long-term future because it shares the same values and has a decadeslong relationship with Seoul.

That’s not to say South Korea aims to cut ties with China, which is still far and away its biggest trading partner and will be for some time. However, while they can’t fully ignore Beijing, it’s clear that now — more so than in recent years — officials in Seoul must hew closer to their counterparts in Washington, D.C.

This dynamic presents an opportunity for the Biden administration to leverage shifting sentiment into an even stronger alliance with South Korea. A closer relationship, of course, would also serve as a way to further confront China on the world stage.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GROUPS TELL CONGRESS TO STICK TO BIDEN’S BUDGET: More than five dozen local, state and national organizations signed a letter sent Tuesday to lawmakers on the House Appropriations, Armed Services and Budget committees, demanding that they “refuse to provide any more funding for the military beyond what the President requested” in his more than $800 billion defense spending proposal.

“Handouts to the military-industrial complex come at the expense of funding to address urgent human needs,” the 63 groups wrote in the letter . “Each time Congress adds billions to the Pentagon budget without being asked to do so, everyday Americans question why a seemingly endless supply of money exists for weapons and war, while funding to meet the direct needs of their families and community members — from expanded health care to anti-child poverty measures to climate investments, and much more — remains sparse.”

The progressive, nonprofit consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen spearheaded the petition and sent a companion letter to the Senate last Thursday. “Even in Washington, D.C., there should be broad consensus on this: Congress should not give the Pentagon — an institution that can’t pass an audit — more money than the Pentagon itself has requested. That’s a common sense position supported by the vast majority of Americans,” Robert Weissman, Public Citizen’s president, said in a statement.

Among the letter’s signers are CODEPINK, the Council for a Livable World, Demand Progress, Greenpeace USA, Indivisible, MoveOn, the Sunrise Movement, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Veterans for Peace.

PITIFUL RATINGS FOR PUTIN’S RUSSIA IN PEW POLL: New data released by the Pew Research Center — and collected as part of its Spring 2022 Global Attitudes Survey of 18 nations — shows that most respondents have a “favorable” opinion of the U.S. (61 percent) and NATO (66 percent), while only a small minority of those surveyed have the same positive assessment of Russia (10 percent).

Furthermore, 60 percent of respondents have confidence in Biden “to do the right thing regarding world affairs,” with just 9 percent saying the same about Putin. And although 79 percent of those surveyed view the U.S. as a “very/somewhat” reliable partner, 74 percent perceive partisan conflicts in America to be “very strong/strong.”

According to Pew’s RICHARD WIKE, JANELL FETTEROLF, MOIRA FAGAN and SNEHA GUBBALA, Putin’s ratings “are at all-time lows now in every country where we have trend data,” and Russia’s ratings “are also at all-time lows in nearly all countries in the study.” In the U.S., “the partisan divide in trust in Putin seen during Trump’s administration has narrowed, with overwhelming majorities of both Democrats and Republicans now lacking trust in the Russian president.”

The survey was conducted from Feb. 14 to May 11, largely in the months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. Pew polled 23,484 adults in the following nations: the U.S., Canada, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, the U.K., Israel, Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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Flashpoints

QUAKE KILLS 1,000 IN AFGHANISTAN: One of Afghanistan’s deadliest earthquakes in decades killed at least 1,000 people and injured 1,500 more today in a remote, mountainous region near the Pakistani border, reports the Associated Press.

The global response "could be hindered by the exodus of many international aid agencies from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover last August," AP writes. “Moreover, most governments are wary of dealing directly with the Taliban, a reluctance that could slow the deployment of emergency aid and teams typically sent after such natural disasters.”

Underscoring the urgency of the event, Haibatullah Akhundzadah, the Taliban’s reclusive supreme leader, called for “the international community and all humanitarian organizations to help the Afghan people affected by this great tragedy and to spare no effort to help the affected people.”

As AP notes, the 6.1 magnitude quake “hits at a time when Afghanistan is already deep in one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with millions facing increasing hunger and poverty after the cutoff of international financing to the Taliban.”

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said in a statement that Biden “is monitoring developments and has directed USAID and other federal government partners to assess U.S. response options to help those most affected.” He added that the U.S. is “committed to continuing our support for the needs of the Afghan people as we stand with them during and in the aftermath of this terrible tragedy.”

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN also issued a statement, acknowledging that “[t]he people of Afghanistan have undergone extraordinary hardship, and this natural disaster compounds an already dire humanitarian situation.” He continued: “U.S. humanitarian partners are already responding, including by sending medical teams to help people affected, and we are assessing other response options.”

Keystrokes

RUSSIA WAGES GLOBAL CYBERWAR: A report released today by Microsoft states that Russian hackers have attempted to infiltrate networks at more than 100 organizations in the U.S. and dozens across 42 other countries since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, per our own MAGGIE MILLER.

Targets of the cyberattacks have included the foreign ministries of NATO states, humanitarian organizations, think tanks, IT groups and energy suppliers. The hackers successfully infiltrated these networks in almost 30 percent of the attempts, managing to steal data in about a quarter of those instances.

The report illustrates the global breadth and reach of the Russian cyber campaign being waged to try to dissuade Ukraine’s allies from providing aid or to disrupt their operations. The volume of attempted hacks in recent months is also significantly higher than previously reported.

HEALTH SYSTEMS FIGHTING OFF HACKERS: After cyberattacks on health systems mushroomed during the pandemic, even more could be coming in 2022, reports our own RUTH READER. From January through June, the Office of Civil Rights tallied 256 hacks and information breaches — up from 149 for the same period a year ago and continuing an upward trend from 2021.

The unrelenting rise in attacks jeopardizes patient safety and strains clinicians already worn out by the pandemic. In the worst cases, hackers can shut down hospital operations and siphon off patient data. The costs of getting hacked also put pressure on health systems to raise the price of services, while cyber insurers are limiting coverage and hiking premiums.

Now, some health systems are asking the federal government to provide more security for what they consider critical national infrastructure. Although there have been various federal efforts to assist health systems with cyberattacks — through the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI — many health systems are calling for more support.

The Complex

SENDING ‘DOOMSDAY’ TO THE BONEYARD: The Air Force is expected to rely on refurbished aircraft to replace its fleet of E-4B “Doomsday” planes that typically fly the secretary of Defense or the chairman of the Joint Chiefs around the world, in a move similar to the service’s plan to replace its two Air Force One jets, reports our own LEE HUDSON.

One option under consideration involves purchasing and refurbishing four low-mileage 747-800 aircraft owned by German carrier Lufthansa. But this path is raising eyebrows because the service made a similar decision with its Air Force One replacement, which is facing prolonged delays. The service bought two 747-8s and is modifying them into a flying White House.

Still, the Air Force has limited options for the E-4B due to the requirement that the replacement aircraft will need four engines. That leaves the 747-800, which is the only four-engine plane in production today in the U.S. However, Boeing received its final order for a 747-800 in January 2021.

While there are other commercial carriers flying the 747-800, the Air Force is expected to go to Lufthansa for the refurbished aircraft because the carrier owns many several low-mileage planes, per people familiar with the discussions.

On the Hill

HASC BOOSTS BIDEN’S BUDGET: The House Armed Services Committee endorsed a $37 billion increase to Biden’s military spending plans today, slapping the White House with another bipartisan rewrite of its Pentagon budget, per our own CONNOR O’BRIEN (for Pros!).

The 42-17 vote, during the panel’s deliberations on annual defense policy legislation, is the second bipartisan rebuke of Biden’s request in a week. Members of the Senate Armed Services Committee overwhelmingly approved a $45 billion increase last week.

The amendment, sponsored by Reps. JARED GOLDEN (D-Maine) and ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.), increases the price tag of the annual National Defense Authorization Act to approximately $840 billion. It authorizes billions for more ships, aircraft, and air and missile defense systems, as well as efforts to mitigate the impact of runaway inflation on the military and troops. All Republicans were joined by 14 Democrats to adopt the proposal.

HASC GREEN-LIGHTS SPACE NATIONAL GUARD: HASC also voted today to establish a Space National Guard, which would comprise troops from eight states and territories who are conducting space missions, Lee reports (for Pros!). The panel approved the proposal from Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) by voice vote as part of a larger en bloc package.

HASC voted last year to establish a standalone Space National Guard, but the push was sidelined amid opposition from the White House; the administration argued it would create yet another government bureaucracy.

Lawmakers from both chambers are pursuing the effort again this year. A group of 12 senators, led by Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.), introduced a bill last month to create a Space National Guard.

If the HASC measure is included in the full House’s version of the NDAA, the two chambers will debate the issue as part of a compromise over a final defense policy bill.

HOUSE APPROPS HIKES STATE DEPARTMENT FUNDING: House appropriators on Tuesday night debuted the text of their fiscal 2023 spending bill to run the State Department and foreign operations in fiscal 2023, proposing a 15 percent increase over current funding levels, writes our own JENNIFER SCHOLTES (for Pros!).

The measure would provide almost $65 billion for the upcoming fiscal year, a more than $8 billion boost. The State Department would receive almost $18 billion, including nearly $6 billion for embassy security at more than 275 diplomatic posts.

The bill also includes almost $31 billion for bilateral economic assistance to foreign countries, an increase of about 13 percent. Another $9 billion would go to international security assistance, a 1 percent hike. And more than $8 billion would be used for humanitarian assistance, a 17 percent boost.

 

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Broadsides

KHASHOGGI’S FIANCEE BLASTS ‘MURDERER’ MBS: HATICE CENGIZ, the Turkish fiancee of slain journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI, freshly condemned Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN today upon his trip to Ankara, tweeting: “The political legitimacy he earns through the visits he makes to a different country every day doesn’t change the fact that he is a murderer.”

“None of the diplomatic engagements would legitimize the unfairness and the injustice,” Cengiz continued. “We are in a fight to advocate and stand up for the morality and the humanitarian values that we uphold against the world leaders who ignore our most fundamental human rights, and remind the people who have forgotten about them, despite the so-called ‘international order’. We have to continue to seek justice until every effort is futile. Ultimately, as an individual who puts her faith in eternal justice, I believe no crime goes unpunished.”

Cengiz’s criticism came as bin Salman traveled to Turkey for the first time since Khashoggi’s killing in 2018, seeking to normalize ties. The de facto Saudi leader also visited Egypt and Jordan this week. According to an intelligence report released by the Biden administration last February, bin Salman ordered the murder of Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and prominent dissident.

Biden is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia as part of a Middle East tour next month, during which he will meet with top Saudi officials including MBS.

Transitions

— RANDY BERRY has been nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to Namibia. He currently serves as U.S. ambassador to Nepal.

— ANJALI CHATURVEDI has been nominated to serve as general counsel at the Department of Veterans Affairs. She currently is a deputy assistant attorney general in the criminal division at the Justice Department.

— ROBERT WILLIAM FORDEN has been nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to Cambodia. He currently serves as a senior adviser in the East Asian and Pacific Affairs Bureau at the State Department.

— THOMAS HARVEY has been nominated to serve as a member of the Veterans Affairs Asset and Infrastructure Review Commission. He previously served as chief counsel and staff director of the Senate Veterans Affairs’ Committee, deputy administrator of the Veterans Administration, and assistant secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs for congressional relations, among other government roles.

— LUKA IGNAC has been named a program assistant for the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council. He recently earned his master’s degree in European studies from Georgetown University, where he was part of the inaugural cohort of McHenry Fellows at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy. He also served as executive co-chair of Georgetown's Transatlantic Policy Symposium.

— KRISTINA KVIEN has been nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to Armenia. She currently serves as deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine.

— NICK LEISERSON is now assistant national cyber director for policy and programs. He most recently was deputy chief of staff for the Office of the National Cyber Director.

— MANUEL P. MICALLER JR. has been nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to Tajikistan. He currently serves as deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Kathmandu, Nepal.

— ROLFE MICHAEL SCHIFFER has been nominated to serve as assistant administrator for Asia at the United States Agency for International Development. He currently serves as senior adviser and counselor on the Democratic staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

— LUCY TAMLYN has been nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. She currently serves as chargé d’affaires, ad interim at the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum, Sudan.

— PAMELA M. TREMONT has been nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to Zimbabwe. She currently serves as deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Stockholm, Sweden.

 

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What to Read

— JOSEPH GEDEON and NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO:The Pro-Putin Preacher the U.S. Won’t Touch

— JENNIFER HASSAN, ELLEN FRANCIS and MERYL KORNFIELD, The Washington Post:These Are the Journalists Killed During Russia’s War on Ukraine

— JENNY MORBER, Wired: Russia Should Pay for Its Environmental War Crimes

Tomorrow Today

Blinken travels to Germany ahead of the Berlin Ministerial Conference “Uniting for Global Food Security” on Friday.

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.:The Political Crisis in Iraq: Any Hope for Change? — with AKEEL ABBAS, MOHANAD HAGE ALI, MARSIN ALSHAMARY, HARITH HASAN and ZEINAB SHUKER

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 9 a.m.: Classified Members Briefing on Somalia — with LARRY ANDRÉ JR. and CHIDI BLYDEN

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee , 9:15 a.m.: Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with DAVID PRESSMAN, GEOFFREY PYATT, ELIZABETH SHORTINO and ROBERT WOOD

— The Federalist Society, 9:30 a.m.:2022 National Security Symposium: Next General National Security — with GUS COLDEBELLA, WILLIAM HUGHES, ERIC KADEL, OONAGH MCDONALD, JUAN ZARATE and more”

— House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: Subcommittee Markup: Fiscal Year 2023 Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies, and Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bills

— The Institute of World Politics, 10 a.m.:The Abraham Accords: What do they Mean for MENA? — with NORMAN BAILEY

— Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.:Full Committee Hearing: Putting People First: Building Trust in Government through Customer Experience — with MARTHA DORRIS, WILLIAM EGGERS and MATHEW LIRA

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 11 a.m.: Business Meeting

— The United States Institute of Peace, 11 a.m.:Twitter Space Series: Why Russia’s War Against Ukraine Matters for Global Peace and Security Efforts — with HEATHER ASHBY and WILLIAM TAYLOR

— The Center for a New American Security, 12 p.m.:Military Food Insecurity and Financial Stability — with WILLIAM FRENCH, KATHERINE KUZMINSKI and JESSICA STRONG

— The Institute of World Politics, 12 p.m.: Anti-Ukrainian Propaganda in Poland — with MARIA JUCZEWSKA

— The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.:Republics of Myth: How National Narratives Divide the U.S. and Iran — with HUSSEIN BANAI, MALCOLM BYRNE, HOLLY DAGRES, BARBARA SLAVIN and JOHN TIRMAN

— The United States Institute of Peace, 1 p.m.: The Roots of Revolution in Sudan: Successes, Setbacks, and the Path Forward — with MATTHEW CEBUL, ZAHRA HAYDER, JAWHARA KANU, MARIJA MAROVIC and MUNA QURASHI 

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.:Classified Members Briefing on Ethiopia

— The Brookings Institution, 2:30 p.m.: Global China: U.S.-China Relations Through the Lens of Great Power Competition — with JAMES GOLDGEIER, RYAN HASS, SUZANNE MALONEY, CONSTANZE STELZENMÜLLER, ANGELA STENT and MARK WARNER

— The Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol , 3 p.m.:Committee Hearing

— The Atlantic Council, 3:30 p.m.: Future Foreign Policy: The Food Insecurity Crisis — with EMMA ASHFORD, MATHEW BURROWS, DINA ESPOSITO, JOSEPH GLAUBER and ARIF HUSAIN

— The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 3:30 p.m.:IISS-Americas Defense Trade Roundtable — with E.J. HEROLD, MIKE MILLER, MIRA RESNICK and JIM TOWNSEND

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who’s also likely to stay up into early Thursday editing our copy.

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