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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
President Joe Biden holds his press conference at the NATO Summit on June 30, 2022 in Madrid, Spain. | Denis Doyle/Getty Images | Programming Note: We’ll be off on Monday for the Fourth of July but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint NATO just showed unprecedented unity in the face of one of the alliance’s greatest-ever challenges. The question now is how long that unity will last. President JOE BIDEN has an answer : Indefinitely. “We are going to stick with Ukraine and all of the alliance is going to stick with Ukraine as long as it takes to, in fact, make sure that they are not defeated…by Russia,” he told reporters in Madrid during a Thursday news conference. That’s surely the broad sentiment after NATO agreed to boost its defenses significantly while paving the way for Sweden and Finland to join the club. But cracks are already showing in the wall the West built. For starters, world leaders fear their publics soon won’t be up for the fight. “War fatigue is coming everywhere,” Estonian Prime Minister KAJA KALLAS told our own ANDREW DESIDERIO and PAUL McLEARY during this week’s summit. “This has been going on for four months now. And there is high inflation, there is an energy crisis. Covid is not going anywhere. So this is becoming more problematic,” though she added, “we can’t be tired, because we have to help Ukraine defend their country.” Fatigue is precisely what Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is counting on , as he hopes voters will punish their leaders for worrying about events in Ukraine instead of problems that are already creeping up at home. There’s already bad news for Biden in the form of a poll commissioned by the pro-restraint and right-leaning Concerned Veterans of America (CVA). When YouGov asked “Of the following issues, which should be President Biden’s top priority?” a mere 8 percent out of 1,000 respondents answered, “Ensure a defeat of Russia in Ukraine.” “Lower or eliminate inflation” was the most popular answer at 38 percent. In fact, “solve the energy crisis,” “lower cost and improve access to healthcare” and “something else” all received higher response totals than defeating Russia in Ukraine. (Crosstabs.) “With historic economic challenges at home, it’s not surprising the American people are wary of taking on new security commitments abroad and starting a war with a nuclear-armed Russia,” said DAN CALDWELL, a senior adviser to CVA. Biden “should note that the American people would rather he focus his attention on issues here at home that are directly connected to the well-being of the American people.” It doesn’t help matters that the midterm elections are fast approaching. Domestic issues will take center stage, and Republicans will be pressured to bash Biden over the economy and shy from fervently supporting the Ukrainian-resistance cause, we’re told, namely because of pressure from conservative media figures like TUCKER CARLSON. Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, the other country leading the pushback on Russia, politics continue to roil following a challenge to Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON’s leadership last month. He survived it, but rebels within his own conservative party haven’t given up trying to dislodge him from power this year. Four months into the war, Western resolve remains strong. But how strong — and long — will depend on if those pushing for continued Ukraine support can convince their people that more is required.
| | | $820M IN WEAPONS FOR UKRAINE: As Biden previewed at the NATO summit, Pentagon press secretary TODD BREASSEALE just announced an additional $820 million in security assistance to Ukraine. The package includes:
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
- Two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
- Up to 150,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition
- Four additional counter-artillery radars
While the HIMARS come from presidential drawdown, the NASAMS, ammunition and counter-artillery radars come from Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds which, per Breasseale, "is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry rather than delivering equipment that is drawn down from DoD stocks."
"The United States has now committed approximately $7.6 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including approximately $6.9 billion since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked invasion on February 24. Since 2014, the United States has committed more than $8.8 billion in security assistance to Ukraine," Breasseale said in a statement. RUSSIAN MISSILE KILLS 21 NEAR ODESA: Ukrainian officials said 21 people were killed and dozens more injured today after Russian missiles hit a town near the strategic port city of Odesa, The New York Times’ EDUARDO MEDINA and VICTORIA KIM reported. “One of the missiles hit a nine-story residential tower in Serhiivka, about 50 miles southwest of Odesa, killing 16 and injuring at least 38, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service. Another hit a recreational center, where five died and one was injured, emergency officials said on Telegram ,” they wrote. “Rescuers completed the search for bodies at the tower, which was home to more than 100 people and which was destroyed on one side, according to the regional military administration. They were still going through the rubble of the recreational center, officials said. The missiles struck around 1 a.m.” The Kremlin continues to deny that it purposefully targets civilians. But the strike comes just one day after Ukrainian artillery and missiles forced Russian troops to leave Snake Island, which is near Odesa. 1 IN 10 ARMY GUARD STILL UNVACCINATED: Members of the Army National Guard were supposed to be vaccinated against the Covid-19 virus by today, but NBC News’ COURTNEY KUBE reported that about 10 percent of the 330,000-strong force didn’t get the jab. They could now face financial reprimands or even expulsion from service. But Kube notes “that amid the Guard's recruiting crisis, there are already signs that unit commanders may be allowed to let unvaccinated troops continue receiving pay and benefits for some period.” “About 14,000 members of the Army Guard have explicitly refused to be vaccinated. Another 7,000 have requested exemptions, many for religious reasons, the officials said,” she wrote. “We’re going to give every soldier every opportunity to get vaccinated and continue their military career,” said Lt. Gen. JON JENSEN, director of the Army Guard. “We’re not giving up on anybody until the separation paperwork is signed and completed.” In a Friday statement, the U.S. Army announced that starting today, “members of the Army National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve who have refused the lawful DOD COVID-19 vaccination order without an approved or pending exemption may not participate in federally funded drills and training and will not receive pay or retirement credit.” About 90 percent of the entire National Guard’s 435,000 members are vaccinated. IRAN DEAL TALKS TO CONTINUE AFTER MIDEAST TRIP: Long-stalled Iran deal talks will likely continue after Biden travels to Israel and Saudi Arabia this month, following a failed European-led attempt to revive the long-stalled negotiations in Doha this week. “Two European diplomats with direct knowledge of this week’s negotiations said that, while talks didn’t progress, efforts to resurrect the accord were expected to continue beyond the July deadline suggested by the UN nuclear watchdog,” Bloomberg News’ JONATHAN TIRONE, GOLNAR MOTEVALLI and SIMONE FOXMAN reported. “A third person familiar with the talks said efforts could resume in the Qatari capital following Biden’s trip.” Biden is scheduled to visit Israel and Saudi Arabia July 13-16. Members of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty will meet in August. Iran, currently a signatory, has threatened to leave the pact if talks fail and the U.S. doesn’t reenter the nuclear deal it left in 2015. IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT’s boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– STATE WARNS FOREIGN EMBASSIES AGAINST TARGETING DISSIDENTS: The State Department is circulating an unusual note to foreign embassies in Washington, D.C., warning them against targeting for repression their citizens in the United States or elsewhere beyond their territories. The note, flagged to our own NAHAL TOOSI, is dated today, posted on the department’s website, and both cordial as well as stern. It doesn’t refer to any specific case of what’s become known as ”transnational repression,” so it’s not clear if anything in particular spurred the missive. But the Biden administration has said in the past that it opposes such actions by foreign governments. “The Department calls the attention of all Missions to its heightened concern and condemnation of transnational repression activities occurring in the United States and elsewhere. Such activities include attempts by a government to target individuals located outside of its territory for peacefully exercising their human rights and fundamental freedoms, through various forms of harassment, intimidation, and coercion,” the note states. The note goes on to remind the embassies that while their staffers may have diplomatic immunity, they’re still supposed to abide by U.S. laws. “The Department informs all Missions that it views such acts of transnational repression as inconsistent with the traditional and accepted functions of diplomatic and consular missions,” the note also states. Asked for details this afternoon, a senior State Department official said: ”We have consistently made clear — through our words and our actions, in public and in private — that we will not tolerate transnational repression. This message is another reiteration of that fact.” BRITTNEY GRINER APPEARED IN COURT: American basketball star BRITTNEY GRINER appeared in a Russian court Friday where a prosecutor accused her of transporting a “significant amount” of cannabis oil. “According to the expert’s conclusion, the detected substance is cannabis oil, which is subject to control on the territory of the Russian Federation and is classified as a narcotic drug,” the prosecutor said. “Griner, seated in a cage in the courtroom with a bottle of water and a bag of cookies, said she understood the charges. She did not enter a plea,” The Washington Post’s ROBYN DIXON and MARY ILYUSHINA reported. The court adjourned until July 7. The Biden administration, which said Griner has been “wrongfully detained” by Russian authorities, says it’s continuing to push for her release but hasn’t provided specifics on what it’s doing. Members of Griner’s WNBA team, the Phoenix Mercury, met with State Department officials in June. Russia has hinted at wanting to exchange Griner’s freedom for VIKTOR BOUT’s, a Russian arms dealer who is serving 25 years in federal prison for selling weapons to people seeking to kill American citizens. “Using wrongful detention as a bargaining chip represents a threat to the safety of everyone traveling, working and living abroad,” State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said recently.
| | | MICROSOFT’S UKRAINE REPORT FACES CRITICISM: Last month, Microsoft released a widely publicized 27-page report on the war in Ukraine and disinformation efforts about it. But after much fanfare, cybersecurity experts have started to criticize its contents, Cyberscoop’s SUZANNE SMALLEY reported. “They cast doubt on many of the key points of the document — namely claims about a combined physical and cyber attack on a nuclear power plant — and they complained that Microsoft is attempting to characterize the state of the cyber conflict in Ukraine to further its commercial interests,” she wrote. “In total, CyberScoop spoke with a dozen prominent cybersecurity threat analysts, executives, military cyber practitioners and scholars who all criticized Microsoft for publishing a report that didn’t contain either the technical underpinning or evidence to back up its points. What’s more, they said, it didn’t meet basic standards of academic research that even most tech companies adhere to when producing similar reports on nation-state or criminal cyber threat activities.” Here’s one example of the complaints: “Source citations are thin to nonexistent,” CHRISTOPHER PAUL, a disinformation researcher and senior social scientist at RAND Corporation, told Smalley. There’s a “smattering of links in text to specific sources and other reporting, and the first actual reference being a figure source for a copy of a newspaper page from the ‘80s.” In a statement to Smalley, Microsoft said, “We stand by our report and its findings and welcome an ongoing conversation with others in the security community and beyond as we work together to do our part to defend Ukraine and protect the cybersecurity ecosystem.”
| | | AEROJET ROCKETDYNE CEASEFIRE: Our friend at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reports that the game of thrones for leadership of Aerojet Rocketdyne is paused — for now. “Aerojet Rocketdyne CEO EILEEN DRAKE on Thursday earned the wide support of shareholders in the proxy war launched by Executive Chair WARREN LICHTENSTEIN, heralding the end of a nasty public feud that broke out after regulators killed the company’s proposed merger with Lockheed Martin,” our own BRYAN BENDER wrote. “One likely result of Drake’s victory is that Aerojet will not be sold anytime soon. A key plank of her platform was to invest in the company to increase its longer-term value — as opposed to cutting costs to make it more attractive for swift sale, as Lichtenstein wanted.” Early results showed that Drake received about 75 percent of the vote, though a third party is verifying the final result. If it holds, though, the board will include three incumbents: retired Gen. KEVIN CHILTON, former aerospace and defense executive THOMAS CORCORAN and retired Gen. LANCE LORD. New additions would be former Collins Aerospace executive GAIL BAKER, ex-Rolls Royce North America CEO MARION BLAKEY, former NASA administrator CHARLES BOLDEN, and former Air Force Secretary DEBORAH LEE JAMES, who also runs the Pentagon’s Defense Business Board.
| | | HFAC’S JULY SCHEDULE: Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), chair of the House Foreign Relations Committee, today released his panel’s July hearing schedule. Here are some of the highlights:
- July 13 at 11:00 a.m., ET: The Subcommittee on International Development, International Organizations and Global Corporate Social Impact will convene its members for a hybrid hearing entitled, “The FY23 Budget Request: United Nations and International Organizations.”
- July 14 at 10:00 a.m., ET: The Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, and Global Human Rights, and the Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber will convene their members for a joint virtual hearing entitled, “Examining the Realities of Russian Activities and Influence in Africa and its Effects on the Continent.”
- July 19 at 10:00 a.m., ET: The Committee will convene its members for a hybrid hearing entitled, “Assessing the U.S. Economic Policy Response to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.”
- July 20 at 10:00 a.m., ET: The Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber will convene its members for a hybrid hearing entitled, “Accountability for Atrocity Crimes Committed by Russia in Ukraine.”
- July 21 at 9:30 a.m., ET: The Committee will convene its members for a virtual public roundtable entitled, “U.S. Leadership on a Multilateral Approach to Africa.”
- July 27 at 10:00 a.m., ET: The Committee will convene its members for a hybrid hearing entitled, “Challenges Facing Global Food Security.”
You can find the whole list here.
| | | ‘JUST SAY DEMOCRACY’: Asked why Americans should continue to pay nearly $5 at the pump to defend Ukraine, National Economic Council Director BRIAN DEESE told CNN Thursday that "This is about the future of the liberal world order and we have to stand firm." For those not steeped in international relations jargon, the “liberal world order” (or the “liberal international order”) refers to the rules and norms that have governed global affairs since the end of World War II — and is not related to domestic American liberal politics. In other words, Deese’s answer basically boils down to “If the West doesn’t defend Ukraine, then democracy around the world is undermined and threatened.” Which leads to this question: Why didn’t Deese just say something like that? Rep. RUBÉN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.) wishes he had. “Democracy just say Democracy, we are helping defend a Democratic country. Stop talking to Americans as if they read Foreign Policy magazine,” he tweeted this morning. Author DON WINSLOW, who is among the 652 people the very online Biden chief of staff RON KLAIN follows on Twitter, agrees: “Anyone who says Democrats do not have a messaging problem is a moron. We do. It's real. And self inflicted wounds like this one on national TV four months before mid-terms hurt. Try using the word DEMOCRACY next time,” he wrote. You will be shocked to hear that Republicans have also pounced on Deese’s comment. “Completely out of touch,” Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) tweeted. Well, at least there’s bipartisan consensus on something in Washington.
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: JEFF GREENE will be senior director for cybersecurity at Aspen Digital, an Aspen Institute program. He most recently was chief for cyber response and policy at the National Security Council. — BECCA ARBACHER is leaving her role as a lead campaign and warfighting analyst with the Joint Staff J8 to take a nuclear strategy and policy position with the Joint Staff J5, handling the NATO nuclear portfolio and supporting the chairman as part of the strategic stability office. — OLIVIA ALAIR DALTON has left the U.S. Mission to the United Nations, where she was spokesperson and communications director. She began work for Biden in the Senate 16 years ago. — ENRIQUE MANALO has been appointed foreign affairs secretary of the Philippines. He previously served as the Philippines’ permanent representative to the United Nations.
| | | |   | | | | | | — CRAIG SILVERMAN, ProPublica: “Google Allowed a Sanctioned Russian Ad Company to Harvest User Data for Months” — CHRIS KIRKHAM and DAVID GAUTHIER-VILLARS, Reuters: “Special Report: Dozens of Russian Weapons Tycoons Have Faced No Western Sanctions” — JESSICA DONATI, The Wall Street Journal: “ American Father Reunited With Child Lost During Kabul Evacuation”
| | | — The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, 3:15 a.m.: “2022 Cyber Stability Conference: Protecting Critical Infrastructure and Services Across Sectors — with ROBIN GEISS, DOUG GREENE, MOLIEHI MAKUMANE, GUILHERME PATRIOTA, LATHA REDDY and more” — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 8 a.m.: “ Latin America’s Governance Challenge — with FEDERICO MERKE, IRENE MIA, CARLOS SCARTASCINI, MÓNICA SERRANO and ELIZABETH J. ZECHMEISTER” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “Assessing the 2022 G7 Summit: The Sherpa Perspective — with MATTHEW P. GOODMAN, JÖRG KUKIES, MICHAEL PYLE and CAITLIN WELSH” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “Book Launch: On Dangerous Ground: America’s Century in the South China Sea — with BONNIE GLASER, PETER MARTIN and GREGORY B. POLING” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: “Book Event: America’s Great-Power Opportunity — with KATHLEEN MCINNIS and ALI WYNE” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who’s long had “National Security Daily” fatigue.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force’s increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT’s discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
