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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Daniel Lippman and Quint Forgey | | 
A Ukrainian soldier takes position during heavy battles at the front line in Severodonetsk, Luhansk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 8, 2022. | Oleksandr Ratushniak/AP Photo | With help from Andrew Desiderio, Connor O’Brien, Lawrence Ukenye and Christopher Miller Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The U.S.-led sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine are unlikely to weaken Moscow’s forces for up to a year, Finland’s ambassador to the United States told NatSec Daily. In an interview in his office Friday afternoon, Ambassador MIKKO HAUTALA spoke with us about Finland joining NATO, the recent mega-purchase of 64 F-35 fighter jets and the state of the war in Ukraine. But what stood out most were his pessimistic views regarding the short-term effects of the West’s export controls and sanctions on Russia’s armed forces. “I think they can continue to do what they are doing for a very long time, without the sanctions being able to stop that,” said Hautala, who also served in Moscow and Kyiv. Asked what he meant by “a very long time,” he replied, “anything from six months to one year” — though he made sure to note that he was “shooting from the hip” with his assessment. Russia still has lots of ammunition, Hautala continued, and “they can mass produce all of those things still.” No later than a year from now, Russia will find it much harder to rearm because of the restrictions, he predicted. But in the meantime, “focusing on the sanctions will not immediately relieve Ukraine, basically in any way.” If accurate, Hautala’s prognostication is horrible news for Kyiv. Ukraine won the war’s first round, stopping Moscow’s forces from sweeping across the country and taking the capital by storm. But over the last few months, Russia has changed course and successfully seized provinces in Ukraine’s east, including areas that already were only partly controlled by Kremlin-friendly entities. Just last week, Russian troops took the entirety of Luhansk — its greatest prize in four months of war and the first seizure of an entire Ukrainian province since the forced annexation of Crimea in 2014. None of this is to say the sanctions are having no effect on Russia’s military; the country’s largest tank manufacturer may have run out of parts. Plus, U.S. and British officials say that high-tech weapons, such as precision-guided munitions, are now at a premium for the Kremlin . But the war remains in a mostly low-tech phase, allowing Russia to keep financing troops and heavy weapons with rubles as its economy stumbles along. The Finnish ambassador said Ukraine is prepared for a long fight — and the West should be, too. “We can’t lose this,” he told us, “because if our will is not strong enough to support Ukraine and also to absorb these difficulties, it will mean that we will all be worse off down the road.” Other notable comments from the ambassador… — Hautala said the end of 2022 is the optimistic scenario for when all 30 NATO members will officially let Finland and Sweden join the alliance. — Finland chose the F-35 warplane over other options because it was “the only fifth-generation fighter jet playing among the candidates,” and it also will aid ground forces with intelligence capabilities and situational awareness, Hautala said. He expects the first of the 64 planes to arrive in 2025. Note to readers: Our own ALEX WARD will be on President JOE BIDEN’s trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia this week. Expect dispatches and a little color from the road during the important visit, starting tomorrow. Stay tuned.
| | | RUSSIA EXPANDS UKRAINE ATTACK: Russia launched attacks on three fronts over the weekend, showing that the Kremlin’s appetite for war is far from satiated, the New York Times’ MATTHEW MPOKE BIGG reported. “In parts of the northeast it has seized, in Kharkiv Province near its border, Russia has moved to reinforce control. In the east, it conducted a series of attacks, while farther south it was forced to defend its positions. … At least five urban centers in Donetsk have come under fire since Saturday,” he wrote. One Russian missile attack on a residential building in the town of Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, killed at least 30 people, the State Emergency Service of Ukrainesaid Monday. The SESU said nine people had been pulled alive from the rubble and that it was still searching for others. The escalation comes after Putin recently told Parliament: “We haven’t started anything in earnest.” PUTIN EXPANDS FAST-TRACK RUSSIAN CITIZENSHIP FOR UKRAINE: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN signed a decree today broadening a simplified passport procedure that would make all Ukrainians — as well as any stateless residents currently in Ukraine — eligible for Russian citizenship, per the Associated Press’ MSTYSLAV CHERNOV. The expedited citizenship process was previously available only for residents of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as residents of the southern Zaporizhzhia and the Kherson regions. According to the AP: “Between 2019, when the procedure was first introduced for the residents of Donetsk and Luhansk, and this year, more than 720,000 people living in the rebel-held areas in the two regions — about 18% of the population — have received Russian passports.” ABE’S WINNING PARTY PLEDGES TO CONTINUE HIS WORK: After Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito increased their majority in the upper house of parliament in an election Sunday, Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA said the government would “tackle the issues” that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe “had to leave unachieved” after his assassination last week, per the Associated Press’ MARI YAMAGUCHI. Still, Kishida — who, because of the election results, could rule uninterrupted until a scheduled vote in 2025 — acknowledged that the LDP “undeniably … could be affected in many ways” by Abe’s death, adding: “Our party must unite as we face difficult issues.” Kishida said he would prioritize the Covid-19 pandemic, rising prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the AP, but “he also vowed to push for reinforcing Japan’s national security and amending the constitution, which only allows the country’s military to act in self-defense.” IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu.
| | | WHERE’S SRI LANKA’S PRESIDENT?: No one can find Sri Lanka’s beleaguered President GOTABAYA RAJAPAKSA, who has yet to confirm he will resign under immense public pressure even though his aides initially said he would. On Monday, the office for the president — who fled protesters that came after him — said it would send messages through MAHINDA YAPA ABEYWARDENA, the Parliament’s speaker, the Wall Street Journal’s PHILIP WEN reported. “The political tumult comes after months of demonstrations over the government’s mishandling of the economy came to a head on Saturday as thousands of protesters in the capital Colombo surged past police lines to storm and occupy the president’s residence and office, as well as the prime minister’s residence, where they said they would remain until the two leaders formally resigned,” he wrote. Opposition parties are working to form an interim government to replace Rajapaksa’s, the moment he formally resigns.
| | | KATKO, PORTMAN RETIREMENTS PORTEND CYBER FIGHTS: The two moderate Republican lawmakers who often side with Democrats on matters of cybersecurity are retiring at the end of this term — meaning the Biden administration will need to brace for more confrontations on cyber issues in the next Congress, reports our own ERIC GELLER (for Pros!). New York Rep. JOHN KATKO , the top Republican on the House Homeland Security Committee, championed more funding for CISA with Democrats. Sen. ROB PORTMAN of Ohio, Katko’s Senate counterpart, worked with his committee’s Democratic chair on legislation that would improve government cyber defenses. Both Katko and Portman also were crucial to passing a sweeping hack reporting mandate earlier this year. Now, their impending departures raise questions about whether their party’s approach to cybersecurity will change. If Republicans take power on Capitol Hill in the midterm elections, the most contentious battles are likely to be fought over cyber regulations. Efforts to expand CISA, as well as the agency’s election security work, probably will become flashpoints. And many Republicans have criticized government efforts to fight disinformation.
| | | HYPERSONIC REQUEST: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note that the Pentagon’s industrial-base policy office wants industry to tell DoD what the private sector would need to produce four to six hypersonic missiles per month, and whether evoking the Defense Production Act is needed to make it happen, according to a notice released Friday. The special notice seeks information from subsystem, component, subcomponent and material suppliers that make hypersonic engines. Defense Production Act Title III is focused on the availability of essential domestic industrial resources to support national defense and homeland security requirements. The program works to identify areas in which industrial capacity is lagging or nonexistent and then engage with companies to mitigate risks by using grants, purchase commitments, loans or loan guarantees.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Strengthening our supply chain. Securing our future.
F-35 production supports 298,000 advanced manufacturing jobs in America and generates an economic impact of more than $65 billion annually across U.S. communities. Learn more. | | | | | | NDAA HELL WEEK: The House returns from recess this week with a big to-do list for the rest of the month, and annual defense legislation is first up. Before the National Defense Authorization Act heads to the floor, the House Rules Committee will convene Tuesday afternoon to determine how many of the 1,213 amendments that have been submitted will receive votes. No amendment is guaranteed a vote — and House leadership typically leaves the most contentious proposals on the cutting room floor. But expect several hundred proposals to get the green light (nearly 476 amendments out of 860 filed were cleared last year). And the proposals run the gamut from how much to spend on the Pentagon to issues with little connection to national security. Here are some of the major proposals we're tracking…. Topline debate: Progressive Reps. BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.) and MARK POCAN (D-Wis.) have a pair of amendments to slash the bill's price tag. The first would back Biden's budget request by reversing a $37 billion increase approved by last month by House Armed Services. A second amendment would cut even deeper, exacting a $100 billion cut from the current level lawmakers approved for the Pentagon. Odds are almost zero this makes the cut. Abortion rights: With the reversal of Roe v. Wade, Reps. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.), JACKIE SPEIER (D-Calif.) and ANTHONY BROWN (D-Md.) have an amendment to repeal restrictions on funding and providing abortions at defense medical facilities. More on the longshot bid to expand troops’ abortion access. Republicans also have a pair of amendments to bar the federal government from leasing property to abortion providers. Ships: Armed Services Chair ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) and Speier are pushing to revisit whether the Navy should be permitted to scrap nine littoral combat ships. Their proposal reverses a vote by HASC to force the Navy to keep five of the LCS hulls it wants to scrap. Navy boosters on the Hill are concerned plans to retire ships will leave the fleet smaller and less capable. But critics, including Smith and Speier, argue that the ships’ spotty performance means the Navy shouldn’t throw good money after bad in operating and maintaining them. Smith said during the June 22 NDAA markup that the entire House should go on the record over whether to continue spending money on the LCS. Nukes: Reps. JOHN GARAMENDI (D-Calif.), DON BEYER (D-Va.) and Jayapal have an amendment barring funding for the Sentinel, the planned new fleet of intercontinental ballistic missiles, and instead directs the Pentagon to launch a life extension program for the 1970s-era Minuteman III ICBM that keeps the missiles in service through 2040. Beyer and Garamendi also have an amendment that would place more limits on funding for the sea-launched cruise missile program — which Biden wants to cancel — and require the administration to submit the unclassified version of the Nuclear Posture Review before the money is released. More Congress news: Our own SARAH FERRIS is out with a profile of Speier, who has been at the center of the fight to overhaul how the military handles sexual assault and harassment and is retiring after the midterms.
| | | PONY UP, SPARTZ: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s spokesperson is calling on Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) to back up her allegations against Zelenskyy’s chief of staff ANDRIY YERMAK. After initially declining to comment about the Ukraine-born U.S. lawmakers’ criticisms of Zelenskyy and his inner circle, the spokesperson, SERHIY NYKYFOROV, released a statement to Ukrainian state media outlet Suspline. Nykyforov essentially told Spartz to show evidence of her claims: “This is a matter for the American lawmaker and the American president. Let them figure it out themselves. There are some accusations. If Victoria Spartz has evidence of her accusations, let her make them public. So far, apart from the accusations made by one of hundreds of [U.S.] lawmakers, we have not heard anything.” The pushback against the GOP lawmaker began over the weekend when a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry blasted Spartz for her posture toward the war, accusing her of playing politics through “baseless speculation.” The public spat between Spartz and top Ukrainian officials is extremely unusual; there’s been very little animosity between the two nations playing out in the open, with Ukrainians consistently thanking the U.S. for its unprecedented flow of military and humanitarian aid. Commenting on the spat, VOLODYMYR DUBOVYK, editor of European Truth, a top independent Ukrainian news site, described Spartz’s actions as “something similar to what the aggressor country is very famous for” — or in other words, Russian propaganda. Dubovyk pointed out that Spartz failed to present any evidence to back up the allegations against Yermak which had been made previously and not found to carry any water. Dubovyk criticized Spartz for her chosen method of inquiry, saying, “it can only generate tension or misunderstanding between our countries, and precisely at a most critical moment.” BRANSON BLASTS WEST’S WEAPONS DELAYS: RICHARD BRANSON , the British founder of Virgin Group, argued for more Western support for Ukraine in its war against Russia at the Space Innovation Summit today, raising fears that weapons delays are preventing Kyiv from mounting an effective response. “We in the West have to treat Ukraine as if our own country is being attacked,” Branson said. “If we can give the Ukrainians the firepower that they need, then they can stop the Russians from continuing to move further forward.” Branson specifically proposed that Germany and South Korea send additional weapons to Ukraine in shipments that he said could possibly change the trajectory of the war. South Korea is one of the largest arms exporters but has only provided Ukraine with non-lethal aid in the months since Russia’s invasion. Last month, Branson visited Zelenskyy in Ukraine and met with nearby groups in Poland that are offering support to the war-torn country.
| | | |   | | | | | | — LEAH BOLEY has been named vice president of communications of the Intelligence and Security sector at BAE Systems. She most recently served as head of communications for the Aeronautics Systems sector at Northrop Grumman. — JUDD DEERE is leaving the office of Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), where he served as deputy chief of staff for communications. He said he will announce his next move in the coming days. — CONDOLEEZZA RICE has joined the ownership group of the Denver Broncos. She previously served on the College Football Playoff Committee.
| | | — LORI HINNANT and VASILISA STEPANENKO, The Associated Press: “Famed Ukrainian Medic Describes ‘Hell’ of Russian Captivity” — MOUSTAFA BAYOUMI, The Nation: “Journey to Guantánamo: A Week in America’s Notorious Penal Colony” — BEN DOOLEY and HISAKO UENO, The New York Times: “ Suspect in Abe Shooting Held a ‘Grudge.’ Scrutiny Falls on a Church.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Strengthening our supply chain. Securing our future.
The F-35 unites allies and partners, powers small businesses, and creates high-tech jobs. With 1,650 suppliers in 48 states, the F-35 program brings together the best of the industry to drive our competitiveness and help secure our world. Learn more. | | | | | | — The American Security Project, 10 a.m.: “Previewing President Biden’s Middle East Trip — with GIORGIO CAFIERO, STEVEN A. COOK and LINDA ROBINSON” — Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol, 10 a.m.: “Hearing” — The Farm Foundation, 11 a.m.: “Agriculture and Food Security: Global Challenges and Local Solutions — with MURAD AL-KATIB, LEE ANN JACKSON, SHARI ROGGE-FIDLER, KIP TOM and RICK WHITE ” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who also tends to disappear for a while when uninvited guests show up at his house. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
