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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Lara Seligman | | 
The Defense Department just released its much-anticipated plan to reduce civilian casualties during military operations and more accurately report incidents if they happen. | Mark Wilson/Getty Images | With help from Connor O'Brien Subscribe here | Email Alex PROGRAMMING NOTE: National Security Daily won’t publish from Monday, Aug. 29, to Friday, Sept. 2. We’ll be back on our normal schedule on Tuesday, Sept. 6, after the holiday. The Defense Department just released its much-anticipated plan to reduce civilian casualties during military operations and more accurately report incidents if they happen — nearly a year after a botched drone strike killed 10 people, including seven children, in Kabul. The idea is to bake in expertise on reducing civilian harm to operations from the very beginning of mission planning, said a senior defense official, speaking to reporters ahead of the plan’s release. “We would envision having somebody or probably a group of people who are experts in the civilian environment that are sitting next to the operators, the threat-focused intel folks, the lawyers as they are really developing whether it’s an individual operation or a campaign, and building in this component of civilian harm throughout the overall process,” the official said. But there are also a lot of questions left unanswered, for instance, the timeline for implementing the changes, how many people will be needed, and the rank of those experts sitting next to the military planners. According to a memo signed by Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN attached to the “Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan” — which officials are short-handing as CHMRAP, pronounced “chim-wrap” — the Pentagon will: — Establish a CHMR Steering Committee to implement the plan across the whole of DoD. — Create a Civilian Protection Center of Excellence “to expedite and institutionalize” ways to reduce civilian harm. It will be stood up in the next fiscal year, though it will take a few more years to set it up fully. — "Incorporate deliberate and systemic measures to mitigate the risks of target misidentification.” — Establish procedures to assess and investigate incidents of civilian harm. — Review how DoD response to incidents, including “condolences and the public acknowledgement of harm.” There’s more, but you get the idea. The senior defense official said the plan was meant to be “systemic” and be “implementable immediately.” The plan will cost “tens of millions of dollars” to execute, though the final number depends on a manpower study and negotiations with lawmakers, the official said. Importantly, there’s nothing in the plan about punishment — as in, what to do if someone inappropriately makes a decision that kills civilians. No one was reprimanded following the Kabul strike because the Pentagon said everyone followed the right procedures. How those procedures will be addressed, or what happens to an official who breaks them, is still unclear. Furthermore, it appears the Pentagon has charted a middle course. The report doesn’t go far enough to make civilian harm a top component in military decision-making — they just want the issue to be “baked in” — which will anger activists. But it also adds extra layers of bureaucracy, which will concern commanders who want to make quick, life-or-death decisions. Some, though, found the announced changes to be sweeping. “This is a sea change,” MARC GARLASCO , who investigated U.S.-caused civilian deaths caused for the United Nations, told The New York Times. “It doesn’t mean civilians won’t be killed in war anymore. They will. But if this plan is implemented and properly resourced, it will ensure fewer people will die and create a way for the Defense Department to respond when civilians are killed.” In January, Austin directed a review and creation of a plan to minimize civilian casualties on the battlefield. It came after a string of Pulitzer Prize-winning stories in The New York Times about how the Pentagon consistently downplayed harm to civilians during the planning of military operations and even after incidents occurred. The August 2021 strike that killed 10 people was initially labeled “ righteous ” by Gen. MARK MILLEY , the Joint Chiefs chair, when he believed an ISIS militant had been killed. The Times soon showed that civilians were killed, not terrorists. It does seem like the Pentagon is learning some lessons already, though. Two retaliatory strikes against Iran-backed militants in Syria were called off over concern about killing civilians (more on that below).
| | | ATTACK IN SYRIA: The U.S. military launched additional retaliatory strikes on Iran-backed forces in Syria on Thursday, in the latest back-and-forth with militants that American officials said were being directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Lara reported. In the latest skirmish, the militants planned to launch additional rockets at U.S. personnel, Defense Department officials said, but U.S. forces prevented the attack by striking the militants with AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, AC-130 gunships and M777 artillery. The strikes killed four enemy fighters and destroyed seven enemy rocket launchers, according to a release from U.S. Central Command. Iran-affiliated forces have recently stepped up low-level attacks on U.S. forces in Syria, including one incident on Aug. 15 when they launched rockets at the Green Village base near the Iraqi border. The Biden administration responded to that attack with precision airstrikes in Deir ez-Zor, Syria, on Tuesday that targeted infrastructure facilities used by groups affiliated with the IRGC. In retaliation, the militants launched rocket attacks on two separate sites in northeastern Syria that wounded three U.S. service members on Wednesday. At roughly 7:30 p.m. local time, rockets landed inside the perimeter of Mission Support Site Conoco, and a further barrage later landed in the vicinity of Mission Support Site Green Village, the military said. One U.S. service member in Conoco was treated for a minor injury and returned to duty, while two others are under evaluation for minor injuries. PUTIN TO GROW RUSSIA’S MILITARY: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN signed a decree Thursday to grow the size of his country’s military by 137,000 troops. “Putin’s decree will increase the number of combat personnel in the Russian armed forces by about 10%, up from 1.01 million to 1.15 million. That will take the total head count of the military to 2.04 million,” NBC News’ YULIYA TALMAZAN reported. “A copy of the order on a Russian government website says it comes into effect Jan. 1, 2023. It was published online and reported on by Russian state media, but no reason for the boost in troop numbers was immediately given.” The order comes a day after Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU admitted that Moscow’s troops have slowed down in their attempt to take Ukraine, though he laughably attributed the delay to trying to reduce civilian casualties. It’s unclear how Russia’s military will grow by so many troops. “I wonder if this will mean a larger draft. If that’s what it means — and it’s too early to say — it would be a major walk back for the last 15-20 years of personnel policy,” tweeted DARA MASSICOT, a former Pentagon official now at the RAND Corporation. HARDER DAYS AHEAD: Ukraine knows that despite its recent advantages, including striking Russian targets beyond the front lines, there’s still a long, long way to go before the war ends. “If someone thinks that we have already passed some kind of Rubicon and that the rest will be like clockwork, unfortunately, it will not be,” the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, OLEKSIY DANILOV, told Radio Liberty on Wednesday, The New York Times reported. Harder days potentially await Ukrainian troops, he continued. “We will have a big war with this country,” he said, “and we will have to put a lot of effort in order to win.” IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @magmill95 -- plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT’s boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | NUKE PLANT DISCONNECTED: Two operating reactors at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine have been disconnected from the Ukrainian grid following fire damage, Ukraine’s atomic energy agency said in a Thursday statement, leading to a complete disconnection from the country’s power grid for the first time ever. BONNIE JENKINS , the under secretary of State for arms control and international security, couldn’t confirm the statement during a news briefing with reporters. But she did say “we are very concerned [about] turning off any of the power plants…. Turning things off will have immediate impact obviously to Ukrainian citizens, entities in the vicinity and also [we’re] concerned about any type of potential nuclear incident or reactive incident that can occur.” On Wednesday, The Guardian interviewed PETRO KOTIN, the head of Energoatom, who said there was a secret Russian plan to cause damage to the Zaporizhzhia plant. “They presented [the plan] to [workers at] the plant, and the plant [workers] presented it to us. The precondition for this plan was heavy damage of all lines which connect Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to the Ukrainian system,” he said. “They just started doing that, they starting all the shelling, just to take out these lines.”
| | | RANSOMWARE UP 47 PERCENT: Ransomware attacks jumped 47 percent from June to July, new research shows. “The ransomware threat scene continues to evolve following the disbanding of Conti, as ransomware attacks rose from 135 in June to 198 in July,” the NCC Group’s Global Threat Intelligence team reported. “The escalation in ransomware attacks comes amidst the rise of several new threat actors, with newcomer Lockbit 3.0 taking the top spot followed closely by Conti-associated threat actors Hiveleaks and BlackBasta, that are settling into a new way of operating. Meanwhile, Lazarus Group returns to prominence, following several multi-million-dollar cryptocurrency-focused attacks earlier this year.” The increased activity by the Lazarus Group, a catch-all for North Korean cybercrime activity, “may be to do with the North Korean economy shrinking once again, possibly forcing the country to lean more heavily on illegal methods of revenue. Pairing this with its already struggling economy, it is possible to see why they would turn to offensive cyber operations as a source of income.”
| | | TEAMING UP: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report Northrop Grumman and Danish company Terma announced they signed a memorandum of understanding to pursue electronic warfare simulation and training business opportunities for nations in Northern Europe. Northrop will provide EW technology to provide realistic air combat training for fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft. Terma has a longstanding relationship with European air forces. The deal shows the growing importance of the electromagnetic spectrum to winning wars, particularly on the battlefield in Ukraine, where signal jamming is rampant.
| | | |   | | | | | | NO NEW UKRAINE SUPPLEMENTAL: House Armed Services Chair ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) predicted that Congress won't approve another large aid package for Ukraine akin to the $40 billion in military and humanitarian assistance lawmakers approved this spring. Instead, he said Congress may address funding needs in a stopgap funding measure Congress will pass next month to prevent a government shutdown, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. "The $40 billion that Congress passed is helpful, enormously, on both [military and humanitarian] sides," Smith said Wednesday evening at a town hall event in his district on the war in Ukraine. "We may need a little bit more money in the appropriations process." "There is not going to be another supplemental before the end of the year, but they will tweak the CR, the continuing resolution to keep the government funded, to help fill out some of the programs that are out there," he said. His remarks come on the heels of the Biden administration's announcement of a $3 billion weapons package meant to aid in Ukraine's long-term defense against Russia.
| | | LM SHOULD CUT TURKEY TIES: The Turkish Democracy Project (TDP) wants Lockheed Martin to cut its ties to Turkey’s defense industry in order to blunt President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN’s regional aims. Turkey is poised to buy a second batch of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system. Surprisingly, the Biden administration hasn’t made much of a stink about the impending purchase. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN didn’t bring the issue up with his Turkish counterpart in a Wednesday conversation, per a Pentagon readout. But TDP, a nonprofit that tracks Turkey’s turn away from democracy, wants Ankara to feel the weight of buying from Moscow. On Aug. 15, the group sent a letter to Lockheed Martin CEO JAMES TAICLET, urging him to cut the company’s ties with Roketsan, the Turkish missile manufacturer that Erdogan chairs, and all other parts of Turkey’s defense industry. Taiclet has yet to respond, leading TDP’s CEO MARK WALLACE to issue a statement. “President Erdogan’s dangerous and aggressive policies are facilitated by Lockheed Martin’s high-tech weaponry,” he said. “Support for companies like Roketsan enables the rampant corruption that has permeated the Turkish state and allowed President Erdogan to further his dangerous and authoritarian agenda.”
| | | — CHRISTINA STANTON has joined the Atlantic Council’s Resilience Center as director of staff, operations and strategy. She was previously the chief operations officer at Climate Finance Advisors.
| | | — FIONA HILL and ANGELA STENT, Foreign Affairs: The World Putin Wants — DAVID IGNATIUS, The Washington Post: Beware the emerging alliance between Russia and Iran — CHRIS BUCKLEY, PABLO ROBLES, MARCO HERNANDEZ and AMY CHANG CHIEN, The New York Times: How China Could Choke Taiwan
| | | — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Marine Corps, the National Defense Strategy, and the future of expeditionary warfare — National Press Club, 11 a.m.: One Year Since The Fall of Kabul: A Conversation on Press Freedom in Afghanistan Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to my editor, Ben Pauker, who notes on my monthly expense submissions: “We may need a little bit more money in the appropriations process.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force’s increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT’s discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
