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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward | | 
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of the far eastern region of Primorsky Krai upon his arrival in Vladivostok, Russia Far east, Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2022. | Pool photo by Gavriil Grigorov | With help from Lawrence Ukenye, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex Ukraine’s stunning military advance over the weekend has led to some excitable talk around town, with some pointing me to a talker of a piece by the Atlantic’s ANNE APPLEBAUM. “We must expect that a Ukrainian victory, and certainly a victory in Ukraine’s understanding of the term, also brings about the end of [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN’s regime,” she wrote. NatSec Daily spent much of the weekend asking if the Biden administration’s strategy might shift as Ukraine increasingly looks like it’s winning and Putin may have to consider more brutal options if his grip on power slips. The answer your host got was a resounding, “No. Heck no.” The strategy — providing weapons to Ukraine for this specific phase of the war — is working (more on that below). But it’s not clear Putin’s rule is truly under threat, partly because life for elites in Moscow hasn’t changed much even though there’s a nearby war that’s left thousands dead and harmed the global economy. After all, Putin did cut the ribbon on a giant Ferris wheel in the capital this weekend. "It is very important for people to have a chance to chill out with their family and friends," he reportedly said. “Very little about day-to-day life seems to have changed in Moscow, where people have the financial resources to weather significant price increases, unlike much of the rest of the country. GUM, the luxury mall next to Red Square, is full of shoppers … and restaurants and theaters do thriving business. Moscow’s roads still teem with luxury cars like Lamborghinis and Porsches,” the New York Times’ VALERIE HOPKINS reported last week. There’s always been a fear that Putin might reach for the red button if all looks lost in Ukraine. While his toadies continue to threaten nuclear weapons use on state-run media, the dictator still has options short of that to turn the tide of war, albeit not great ones. He could order Russian troops “to retrench and retreat to more defensible lines,” CNA’s MICHAEL KOFMAN told NatSec Daily, or he could “go forward with a partial mobilization and enact stoploss policies.” Of course, it’s unclear if he will choose either of these options, something more severe, or stay the course. Whatever he does, though, Applebaumian-type concerns seem far from the administration’s minds — at least for now — though contingency plans for all kinds of outcomes are being worked through.
| | | | HAPPENING 9/29 - POLITICO’S AI & TECH SUMMIT : Technology is constantly evolving and so are the politics and policies shaping and regulating it. Join POLITICO for the 2022 AI & Tech summit to get an insider look at the pressing policy and political issues shaping tech, and how Washington interacts with the tech sector. The summit will bring together lawmakers, federal regulators, tech executives, tech policy experts and consumer advocates to dig into the intersection of tech, politics, regulation and innovation, and identify opportunities, risks and challenges ahead. REGISTER FOR THE SUMMIT HERE. | | | | | | | | RUSSIA’S BLACK WEEKEND: Ukraine says it has retaken more than 1,000 square miles of territory around the city of Kharkiv, in a surprise northern counteroffensive that sent Russian forces scrambling. The attack was carried out by a relatively small force — just a handful of brigades — that seized the opening, a U.S. official and a Western diplomat told NatSec Daily. The simultaneous operation around Kherson in the south that began earlier this month — and particularly Kyiv’s loud telegraphing of it over the course of the summer — served to misdirect Russian forces, who left key posts in the northeast lightly defended, allowing Ukrainian troops to move in. “When looking at Kharkiv, that offensive was clearly a much bolder operation designed to take advantage of the favorable conditions created by the Russian deployment of the south over the course of July and August,” Kofman told War on the Rocks Monday. Ukraine’s gains have been stunning. Moscow confirmed on Saturday it had withdrawn from the towns of Izyum and Kupiansk, both key logistical hubs for resupplying Russian forces in the Donbas. As of Sunday, Russian troops had retreated to the eastern side of the Oskil River, about 10 miles east of Izyum. A map released by Russia’s defense ministry indicated that Ukraine had nearly eradicated all Russian forces from the Kharkiv region, and Ukraine on Monday claimed it had reached the Russian border. The coming days will be critical as Ukraine looks to push further into the Donbas. Ukrainian forces may be able to get as far east as the front lines before the February invasion, buoyed by supplies the Russians left behind, the U.S. official said. But Russian forces are now likely to reconstitute and attempt localized counterattacks, Kofman said in a separate conversation with our own LARA SELIGMAN. And Ukraine must be careful not to spread itself too thin as it tries to exploit the momentum of the offensive. In the South, Kyiv is likely to continue to increase pressure on the Kherson front, and may even look for an opportunity to “sever the Russian land corridor” from the Donetsk to Crimea, Kofman said. “The current period is best described as a window of opportunity for Ukraine, seizing the initiative to not just take territory, but also deal blows to the Russian military from which they will struggle to recover during the winter,” he said. But Ukraine’s gains were not without cost. In an apparent retaliation for the swift offensive, Russia launched cruise missiles at critical infrastructure , Ukrainian officials said Sunday, knocking out power in Kharkiv and Donetsk in the east. Water and electricity had been mostly restored by Monday morning. SCHOLZ: NO IRAN DEAL SOON: German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ said he doesn’t foresee a return to the Iran nuclear deal anytime soon. European countries “have made proposals, and there is no reason now for Iran not to agree to these proposals, but we have to take note of the fact that this isn’t the case, so it certainly won’t happen soon, although it looked for a while like it would,” Scholz said following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister YAIR LAPID in Berlin. “We remain patient, but we also remain clear: Iran must be prevented from being able to deploy nuclear weapons.” Lapid, as he has said often — even while standing next to President JOE BIDEN in Jerusalem — stated that a return to the 2015 pact would be a mistake. He may genuinely believe that, but the position is also politically convenient heading into a November election where he faces a challenge from the right from former Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. UKRAINE’S WEAPONS SHOPPING LIST: Ukraine is going to make a big weapons ask of the U.S. and its allies as it prepares for a fight heading into 2023. The list, which was sent to American lawmakers, includes “the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has a range of about 190 miles. The Biden administration, which has dispatched more than $15 billion worth of weapons and other security assistance to Ukraine, has declined to provide that system over concerns Ukraine could use it to strike Russian territory and spark a wider conflict with the West,” the Wall Street Journal’s WARREN STROBEL and MICHAEL GORDON reported. “Ukraine’s list of requirements for ‘offensive operations’ includes 29 types of weapon systems and ammunition. Among them are tanks, drones, artillery systems; more Harpoon antiship missiles; and 2,000 missiles for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or Himars, which the U.S. began providing earlier this year,” they wrote. Ukraine worries that Russia has longer-range missiles than Ukraine does, which is why Kyiv continues to insist on ATACMs. It would be a change in policy if the Biden administration decided to deliver the weapons, especially after speaking out so publicly against doing so earlier this summer. WELCOME, INTERNS!: The State Department today welcomed its first cohort in the Paid Student Internship program, with around 150 young ambassadors-in-training arriving to work in D.C. and in diplomatic missions in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, East Asia and the Western Hemisphere. Congrats to all. Also, this former State Department summer intern wonders if he can get backpay? IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Strengthening our supply chain. Securing our future.
F-35 production supports 298,000 advanced manufacturing jobs in America and generates an economic impact of more than $65 billion annually across U.S. communities. Learn more. | | | | | | FAMINE IN EAST AFRICA: A hunger emergency could quickly turn into famine in parts of East Africa over the coming weeks due to sparse rain, putting millions of lives at risk at a time when food is already hard to come by. “Meteorologists are issuing bleak warnings of a fifth disappointing rainy season, which normally starts next month through most of eastern Africa, and projecting dry weather into next year. Aid organizations, meanwhile, say that they lack the funding to stop people from starving, as local crop failures and deaths of livestock are exacerbated by high global food prices,” the Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL PHILLIPS and GABRIELE STEINHAUSER reported. “Last week, the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network forecast that parts of southern Somalia, where it said local cereal prices were more than three times their normal levels, will be in famine between October and December.” A formal classification of famine means that two out of every 10,000 inhabitants die from hunger a day and about one in every three children is acutely malnourished,” they continued. The U.S. has provided $1.6 billion in humanitarian relief to the region this fiscal year.
| | | MONTENEGRO BLAMES RUSSIA FOR CYBERATTACKS: Montenegro, a NATO ally, is pointing fingers at Russia for an Aug. 20 cyberattack that targeted government websites and other public services, The Associated Press’ DUSAN STOJANOVIC reported. Government websites still remain offline after guidance from the FBI and other cyber experts due to security concerns. Montenegro became a member of the Western military alliance in 2017, despite Russian opposition, and joins a growing list of NATO members in eastern Europe that have suffered cyberattacks. NATO countries are increasingly coming under digital fire. Albania's government services were targeted by Iranian cyberattacks in July, leading the NATO member to cut diplomatic ties with Tehran last week after an investigation confirmed Iran as the culprit. Albania believes that Iran responded to the severing of relations by attacking the country's border systems during the weekend. Lithuania and Estonia also suffered Russian cyberattacks this year following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | PENTAGON SOURCING CONCERNS: BILL LaPLANTE, the Pentagon's acquisition chief, revealed on Friday that some defense contractors are unaware of where some lower-tier suppliers are sourcing their parts from, our friends in Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported. “I will find out and we will let people know,” he said on Friday. “I could speculate. I have just seen enough cases of discovering things [in supply chains] that I wouldn't be surprised by anything. I've often said and others have said any company that says they know their supply chain is like a company saying they've never been hacked. So it's an endless battle.” The discovery comes after the Pentagon suspended deliveries of Lockheed Martin's F-35 due to a Chinese alloy in the jet's engine. Although the part was magnetized in the U.S., the Pentagon must issue a waiver for production to resume once they find the component poses no safety or security risks.
| | | THE CR AND DOD: Morning Defense also had a great rundown of what military programs might be included in a continuing resolution to fund the government before the new fiscal year starts in October — and that matters even more now that the House is back. The Biden administration has requested several budget exemptions for the Pentagon while funding for the new fiscal year is frozen at current year levels. The wish list includes flexibility for the services to spend more to cope with rising operational and training costs, including higher fuel prices. Biden is also seeking another $13.7 billion in Ukraine-related spending. Aid to Kyiv, along with natural disaster funding, are seen as largely noncontroversial additions to a CR. Meanwhile, full-year defense-funding legislation for fiscal 2023 is on hold because congressional appropriators have failed to secure a deal on how much to allocate to the Pentagon and other government agencies. On the policy side, the NDAA remains in a holding pattern as the Senate has yet to take up its version of the bill. SASC Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) wants to see the defense authorization bill on the floor this month, but other priorities and keeping the government open are filling up the calendar.
| | | ‘IMPOSSIBLE’ TO BEAT UKRAINE: A guest on a Russian state-run chat show told his fellow panelists that Ukraine was going to win the war Putin started. “Someone told [Putin] that the Ukrainians will surrender, that they will flee, that they will want to join Russia,” said BORIS NADEZHDIN, a former Duma member who typically plays the foil on propaganda shows. “We’re now at the point when we have to understand it is absolutely impossible to defeat Ukraine” using Moscow’s current methods. A Duma member also on the show went after Nadezhin, calling him a “non-comrade,” adding ominously: “I again urge you to watch your language.” The Guardian’s SHAUN WALKER, who’s been covering the war, tweeted: “The guests all seem genuinely emotional and nervous here - not the performative-emotional we’re used to. Seems the hunt for who to blame for the messed up military campaign (the ‘criminally irresponsible’ in the words of a guest) may get underway soon.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — PATRICK COSTELLO has joined Mercury as senior vice president of its Washington, D.C., office. Costello previously spent more than a decade at the Council on Foreign Relations and the last year as CEO of the American Security Project. — MARTA HERNANDEZ is now the senior director for communication at the Aerospace Industries Association. She was most recently the communications chief for Republicans on the Senate Armed Services Committee. — JONATHAN "JOHNNY" CHAVKIN is now executive speechwriter and senior vice president in Prosek Partners’ D.C. office. He most recently was speechwriter for the CIA director and deputy director and is a State Department alum. — CHRIS CUMMISKEY has joined the board of advisers of the cybersecurity company Millennium Corporation. He is also a senior fellow at Virginia Tech and is the former under secretary of DHS. — JENNIFER STEWART is the new executive vice president for strategy and policy at the National Defense Industrial Association. She was previously a staff director on HASC and chief of staff to the defense secretary. — NABEELA BARBARI has left the White House where she was a director for resilience and response at the National Security Council, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. Barbari, a CISA alum, has joined national security consulting firm OTHSolutions as an EVP.
| | | — JOSEPHINE WOLFF, Slate: Is Russia Restarting Damaging Cyberattacks? — PHILLIPS PAYSON O’BRIEN, The Atlantic: Ukraine Pulled Off a Masterstroke — STEPHEN LOSEY, Defense News: US Air Force warns of aging fighters, poor purchasing efforts
| | | — The Wilson Center, 9 a.m.: "Business Unusual: A Rapidly Changing World Calls for Adapting Peacebuilding in Africa" — Senate Armed Services Committee. 9:30 a.m.: Nomination hearing of Space Force Lt. Gen. BRADLEY C. SALTZMAN, to be general and chief of space operations. — New America and Arizona State University, 12:30 p.m.: Future Security Forum 2022 — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: “The Era of Purposeful Genomic Manipulation Begins: Can DoD benefit?" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to my editor, Ben Pauker, who seemed genuinely emotional and nervous during today’s edit, not the usual performative-emotional.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Strengthening our supply chain. Securing our future.
The F-35 unites allies and partners, powers small businesses, and creates high-tech jobs. With 1,650 suppliers in 48 states, the F-35 program brings together the best of the industry to drive our competitiveness and help secure our world. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
