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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | | 
Estonia Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur appeared dumbfounded by the assertion by the European Union’s top foreign policy official Monday that there was need for more evidence on the origin of drones hitting civilian targets in Ukraine. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | With help from Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Yes, those are Iranian-provided drones that Russia is using to destroy and spread terror in Ukraine. Estonia isn't concerned that, despite Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY’s comments, a Republican-led House wouldn’t support Ukraine. And, whoops, Tallinn assesses Russia’s military will be able to reconstitute itself despite Western sanctions. Those are NatSec Daily’s takeaways from a public event Tuesday with Estonian Defense Minister HANNO PEVKUR hosted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington, D.C. Each of the minister’s answers were in response to a question from your co-host, Alex. Pevkur appeared dumbfounded by the assertion by the European Union’s top foreign policy official Monday that there was need for more evidence on the origin of drones hitting civilian targets in Ukraine. “I see, in the war theater, Iranian drones,” he said. “So if someone is saying that Iranian drones are not Iranian drones, I'm ready to debate about that.” “Who is giving them? Mongolia?” he added, leading to laughter in the GMF boardroom. KRISTJAN PRIKK, Estonia’s ambassador to the United States, stepped in to answer NatSec Daily’s question on McCarthy. D.C. was shook by the minority leader’s interview with Punchbowl News Tuesday morning. “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t do it. … It’s not a free blank check,” McCarthy said. Prikk, however, said his and Estonia’s faith in America’s commitment to Ukraine wasn’t shaken: “I've been assured by different members of the Congress that there is a strong core support to continue the assistance to Ukraine as long as needed from both parties.” (A foreign diplomat came up to NatSec Daily after the session to say their country was “scared” by McCarthy’s comments and what it portends for the U.S. role in the pro-Ukraine/anti-Russia fight.) Finally, the defense minister isn’t optimistic that U.S.-led efforts to deprive Russia’s military of weapons and components to prolong its assault on Ukraine will work. “They will restore their capabilities sooner than later,” Pevkur said. “We can argue is it like two years? Is it four years? In the long term, doesn't matter.” “The market will always adjust. And when there is a lack of chips, there will be someone who will produce it, or there will be a way for the ammunition without the chips,” he said. Amb. Prikk chimed in once more: “We're not talking about them becoming a U.S.-style military. But sometimes for, mostly, for the Russian military, good is enough. They don't have to be excellent.” Russian forces have been “quite effective and efficient in destroying people's lives and cities with dumb bombs,” Prikk said.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today . | | | | | | | | TOP BRASS CASH IN: A Washington Post investigation by CRAIG WHITLOCK and NATE JONES found that more than 500 retired U.S. personnel have been hired by foreign governments — most with human rights abuses and political repression — into lucrative jobs since 2015. For Saudi Arabia alone, paid advisers have included retired Marine Gen. JAMES L. JONES, a former national security adviser to President BARACK OBAMA, and retired Army Gen. KEITH ALEXANDER , who led the National Security Agency under Obama and President GEORGE W. BUSH. Most of the retired personnel have gone on to work for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Persian Gulf countries as civilian contractors. Retired personnel need to get approval from Congress before performing such work abroad, and the U.S. government has kept almost all information related to the work secret for years. Under the Freedom of Information Act, The Post sued the Army, the Air Force, the Navy, the Marine Corps and the State Department in federal court, successfully obtaining more than 4,000 pages of documents on the matter. PANDEMIC PREP: President JOE BIDEN signed a national security memorandum Tuesday that — hopefully, for all our sakes — aims for an effective detection and response to the next large-scale viral or biological threat, our own ERIN BANCO reports . The memo directed 20 agencies, including those in the intelligence sphere, to prioritize biodefense and pandemic preparedness. It could take years to implement the plan, a senior administration official said during a White House-organized briefing under the condition of anonymity, referring to the time and resources it takes to develop shots, drugs and tests for a number of pathogens. The memo seeks to enact infrastructure to deploy resources quickly, including enough shots to inoculate the entire U.S. population within 130 days of the emergence of a new viral threat, an official said. WHACK-A-DRONE: Ukraine has shot down roughly 80 percent of the Iranian-made drones Russian launched since mid-September, according to research from Molfar Global, an open-source intelligence community based in Kyiv. Out of 208 unmanned aerial systems Russia deployed against Ukrainian targets from Sept. 13 to Oct. 17, Kyiv downed 161 Shahed 136 Kamikaze drones, one Shahed 129 — which resembles the better-known U.S. MQ-9 Reaper — and four Mohajer-6s, our own LARA SELIGMAN writes about the research. Just since Sunday evening, Ukraine’s air force said Kyiv had destroyed 37 Russian drones, around 85 to 86 percent of the number involved in Russia’s latest barrage of attacks. TAKING TAIWAN: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN warned that China intends to seize Taiwan on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought, noting a “change in approach” from Beijing toward the island nation in recent years, Bloomberg’s IAIN MARLOW reported . China had made a “fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable, and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline,” Blinken said at a Stanford University event on Monday. His comments came a day after Chinese leader XI JINPING said the “wheels of history are rolling on towards China’s reunification” with Taiwan while speaking at the Communist party congress. Though Beijing prefers a peaceful method of reconciliation, Xi said, he is prepared to take “all measures necessary.” The Defense Department has been less concerned about a forthcoming Chinese takeover and didn't show much alarm during a Tuesday news briefing. "We continue to see China as the pacing threat and [DOD will] continue to do our part to preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific and work closely with allies and partners," said Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER, the Pentagon press secretary. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | UKRAINE BLACKOUT: Ukraine has experienced “massive blackouts” in the last week after Russian forces wiped out nearly a third of the country’s power stations, our own WILHELMINE PREUSSEN reports . Russia’s bombardment of energy facilities across the country, including those in Kyiv, continued Tuesday in what Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY characterized as a terrorist attack. A critical infrastructure facility located in the Desnyansky district had been hit, according to Kyiv Mayor VITALY KLITSCHKO, while people also reported explosions and smoke at the city’s CHP-6 Power Plant Ukraine. KIRILL TIMOSHENKO, deputy chief of the Ukrainian presidential office, also reported "serious damage" at a facility in Dnipro, which he said has been hit twice.
| | | GERMAN CYBER CHIEF FIRED OVER RUSSIA TIES: Germany’s cybersecurity head ARNE SCHÖNBOHM was fired by the Interior Minister NANCY FAESER Tuesday after reports that he was linked to people involved with Russian intelligence, German news outlet Deutsche Welle reported . Faeser grew concerned with Schönbohm, who led the Federal Office for Information Security for six years, due to his continued contact with an organization called the Cyber Security Council of Germany. More than a decade ago, Schönbohm helped create the group, which connects experts from public institutions and the private sector. But following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the organization came under fire after reports that one of its members was tied to the Kremlin.
| | | HIMARS SURGE: Lockheed Martin is telling customers it’s planning to increase production of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System in the coming months as more countries get in line for the weapon that has become synonymous with Ukraine’s battlefield gains, our own LEE HUDSON and PAUL MCLEARY report . The company is ready to boost HIMARS production to 96 launchers annually, up from its current level of 60 launchers, CEO Jim Taiclet told investors during a third quarter earnings call on Tuesday. Taiclet’s Tuesday announcement about increasing HIMARS production came hours after POLITICO reported that Lockheed Martin had started promising international customers it was preparing to crank up its manufacturing — partially easing the concerns of the Estonian, Polish and Ukrainian governments, which had recently ordered dozens of launchers. In anticipation of the requests, the company invested $65 million about six months ago to shorten the manufacturing time for HIMARS before receiving a contract from the Pentagon, Taiclet said. Lockheed Martin is also considering expanding its facility in Camden, Ark. , as demand continues to grow, he added.
| | | TAIWAN WIN: An additional $10 billion has been earmarked for Taiwan in the defense authorization bill, more than doubling the initial amount proposed for the island nation, Defense News’ BRYANT HARRIS and JOE GOULD report . A modified defense package for Taiwan was included in a massive bipartisan amendment filed last week by Senate Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.), who told reporters that the package remains “consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act.” Lawmakers are expected to vote on the bill following the midterm elections in November. The initial version of the Taiwan Policy Act, introduced by Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), prompted concern from the White House. The NDAA contains the defense components of his bill, but it’s stripped of key provisions that would upgrade diplomatic ties with Taiwan and sanction China.
| | | |   | | | | | | THAT’S JUST WRONG: Senate Appropriations Chair PATRICK LEAHY’s objections to Egypt’s human rights record pushed the Biden administration to cut its annual military aid to the country by $75 million, the Associated Press’ ELLEN KNICKMEYER and MATTHEW LEE report . Every year, the U.S, provides Egypt’s military with $1 billion in aid because the country is viewed as a regionally important ally to Israel and the U.S. But in a statement on Monday, Leahy underscored the importance of administrations refusing to allow policy interests to overshadow atrocious human rights records, “because the situation facing political prisoners in Egypt is deplorable.” “We will continue to consult closely with Congress as we engage on human rights with the Egyptian government and seek tangible steps to address the concerns shared by the administration and the Congress,” the State Department said in a statement on Monday.
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ISABELLA ULLOA has left the Department of Homeland Security, where she was deputy chief of staff and focused primarily on national security-related issues like cybersecurity, counterterrorism, critical infrastructure protection and the Secret Service, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. U.S. Coast Guard Lt. Commander KATHLEEN "KAY" FALLON is now acting deputy chief of staff. She most recently was military aide to DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS. –– SLOANE SPEAKMAN is now senior adviser for Taiwan policy at the Office of the Secretary of Defense. She most recently was special assistant to the deputy secretary of defense. –– Former Colombian President IVÁN DUQUE MÁRQUEZ is joining the board of Laurel Strategies, a global CEO advisory firm based in Washington.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | | | | — ROHAM ALVANDI, Foreign Policy: A Chance to Be on Right Side of History in Iran — JEREMY WALLACE, Foreign Affairs: Why China Aims Too High — JOSHUA YAFFA, The New Yorker: Inside the U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine
| | | — The National Defense Industrial Association, 7:45 a.m.: "Integrated Precision Warfare in an Era of Major Power Conflict” — The Middle East Institute, 9 a.m.: "Iran, the Gulf States and the Palestinian Issue" — The U.S. Geospatial Intelligence Foundation, 9 a.m.: "Geospatial intelligence Service Day: The Maritime Services" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: “A Fireside Chat with Dr. RAJ PANJABI on National Biodefense” — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: "How will the U.S. Navy navigate an uncertain security environment?" — The Institute for Security and Technology, 11 a.m.: "Securing Data Flows: The Importance of an EU-U.S. Agreement on Data Transfers” — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11:30 a.m.: "From The Boardroom to The Battlefield: Operationalizing AI/ML” — The Hudson Institute, 1 p.m.: "Making AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) Work: Bolstering Australia's Security and Building Alliances Over the Next Decade" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wishes someone else took over this newsletter on a faster timeline. And we thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, for helping us get this monster to you.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
