|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily, and that winter may provide an opportunity to begin negotiations with Russia. | Olivier Matthys/AP Photo | With help from Lara Seligman, Erin Banco, Nahal Toosi, Paul McLeary, Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Register for POLITICO’s upcoming conference, “ At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy ,” taking place on Nov. 16 in Washington, D.C. Confirmed speakers include HASC Chair Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), Army Chief of Staff Gen. JAMES McCONVILLE, Lockheed Martin President and CEO JAMES TAICLET and Raytheon Missiles and Defense President WES KREMER. We look forward to seeing our NatSec Daily family there! Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Gen. MARK MILLEY put Washington-Kyiv relations in tough spot after comments last week that the winter fighting pause could open the door to peace talks with Russia. The Biden administration has since mobilized to deliver a clear message to Ukraine: Milley didn't say what we really think. Specifically, senior U.S. officials are telling their counterparts in Ukraine that the expected winter fighting pause doesn’t mean talks should happen imminently. Instead, they’re relaying that Washington will continue to support Kyiv militarily as it launches the next phase of advances on the battlefield, Ukrainian and U.S. officials tell Alex along with LARA SELIGMAN and ERIN BANCO. The scramble follows comments last week by Milley, the Joint Chiefs chair. The four-star general said during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily, and that winter may provide an opportunity to begin negotiations with Russia. The general has spoken regularly with his Ukrainian counterpart, Gen. VALERIY ZALUZHNYY , including on Monday, according to a U.S. official. During the discussion, Zaluzhnyy did not express any concern or mention Milley’s comments even once, the person said. The person, along with others interviewed for this story, spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal deliberations. Still, the flurry of calls and meetings with Ukrainians underscores the degree to which the administration is concerned about presenting a unified front on Ukraine and potential peace talks. Any prolonged public split among top U.S. officials could threaten the already delicate relationship between Washington and Kyiv at a key moment in the war. The mixed messages in public and in private about whether the U.S. should begin to speak more seriously with Ukraine about peace talks with Russia are straining the Washington-Kyiv relationship, according to eight U.S. officials. While some top national security officials are adamant that now is not the time to begin discussing negotiations, especially after Kyiv retook a strategically important city last week, others believe the winter could provide an opportunity for diplomatic conversations to take place. Milley's comments echoed a broad sense inside the Defense Department that the coming winter provides a chance to discuss reaching a political settlement to end the war. Senior military officials believe Ukraine will be challenged to expel Russian forces from all occupied areas, as is Kyiv’s stated end goal. That’s especially the case in the Crimean peninsula, which has been held by Russia since 2014. The State Department, meanwhile, is laying the groundwork for eventual peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The administration stresses it would only engage in such conversations alongside and in full consultation with their partners in Kyiv. The National Security Council is the most resistant to the idea of talks, despite a smattering of aides who privately urge the U.S. to get Ukraine and Russia to the table. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN has occasionally agreed with their view on prioritizing Ukraine-Russia talks –– which is not conveyed directly to the Ukrainians — but argues Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN wouldn’t take negotiations seriously at this time and that the Ukrainian public would reject any efforts at dealmaking. Read the full story here .
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | | | | BIDEN MEETS XI: President JOE BIDEN and Chinese leader XI JINPING met for three hours in Indonesia Monday to warn against Russia’s threatened use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine and promise to rekindle joint works on curbing climate change, per our own JONATHAN LEMIRE . “I absolutely believe there need not be a new cold war,” Biden told reporters after his first face-to-face meeting with Xi as the U.S. president. “We’re going to compete vigorously but we’re not looking for conflict. We’re going to manage this competition responsibly.” “The world has come to a crossroads [and] we need to chart the right course,” said Xi, whose words were translated into English. “The world expects that China and the United States will properly handle the relationship.” The bonhomie betrayed the simmering concerns over Taiwan’s future, as fears that China plans a forceful takeover of the democratically ruled island grow in Washington. Biden, however, tried to tamp down tensions, saying “I do not think there's any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan." ROBERT DALY, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center, dismissed Monday’s meeting as “a non-event.” “I don’t see any sign that either country is willing to change its assessment of the other, its intentions or its goals. So there’s a desire to understand [each other] which is good, but there’s no indication that either country is yet ready to reconsider any of its positions,” Daly said. TAKE IT EASY: Senior Indonesian politicians are calling on Western leaders to make concessions on criticizing Russia over the war in Ukraine in a last-ditch effort to avoid leaving the G-20 summit without a joint declaration, our own STUART LAU reported Sunday, citing three diplomats with knowledge of the ongoing negotiations. U.S., European, Australian, Canadian and Japanese officials are among those under pressure from Indonesian counterparts, all the way up to President JOKO WIDODO, to show “flexibility” and consider using less tough rhetoric in order for Moscow, the diplomats said. Widodo “considers it a personal success” if a G-20 declaration could be reached, one of the officials said, adding that the Indonesian leader has lamented repeatedly that he is chairing the “most difficult” G-20 summit ever. He is also hoping to avoid kicking Russia out and making it the G-19, which the G-8 did in the wake of Moscow’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014. What else should you be watching for at the G-20? Our own NAHAL TOOSI has the rundown . FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– BLINKEN TO QATAR: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is expected to attend a World Cup game in Qatar during the early days of the tournament. And by what we’re sure is sheer coincidence, he’ll also hold discussions with Qatari leaders as part of an ongoing strategic dialogue with the Middle Eastern ally, Nahal reports. Blinken is planning to attend the U.S. game against Wales on Nov. 21, according to a U.S. official familiar with the issue. The strategic dialogue session will take place the same day, a former U.S. official familiar with contacts inside the State Department said. A State spokesperson said there were no travel plans to announce. The three people spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to go on the record and to describe sensitive conversations. Unclear still is who from the Biden administration will attend the closing ceremony, an important moment as it involves a symbolic handoff to the United States, which will co-host the next World Cup. Biden, however, is not expected to attend any of the Qatar event. Blinken and his colleagues have promised to put human rights at the center of U.S. foreign policy. The World Cup in Qatar has brought human rights to the fore as migrant workers have died building stadiums and the country forbids homosexuality. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– GROUPS CALL FOR U.S.-SAUDI SHAKE UP: Nine progressive and antiwar organizations are calling on Democratic leadership to reexamine the U.S.-Saudi Arabia relationship after the Riyadh and Moscow-led OPEC+ decision to cut oil production. “The United States cannot allow petro-dictator leverage over energy markets to set the course of international politics,” the groups, including Win Without War, Human Rights Watch and the Sunrise Movement, wrote to Sen. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-N.Y.) and Speaker of the House NANCY PELOSI. The organizations urge the lawmakers to bring up legislation for debate that halts direct commercial and military sales for one year, protects dissidents and speeds up the renewable energy transitions. AFGHAN FAMILY REUNIFICATION: The State Department announced the launch of a landing page to help Afghan families in the United States reunite with their loved ones. The website provides guides and links on how best to apply for status in the U.S. or bring a family member stateside. More than 1,550 Afghan children came to the U.S. without their parents during evacuation efforts in Kabul last year. Some are suffering panic attacks and depression. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | LAVROV HOSPITALIZED, OR NOT: Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV was hospitalized for a “checkup” before his G-20 appearance in Indonesia, but Moscow says it never happened, reports the Associated Press’ NINIEK KARMINI . Bali Gov. I WAYAN KOSTER said Lavrov was taken to the island’s biggest hospital “for a health checkup” and left “in good condition.” Two officials had previously told the AP that the foreign minister sought treatment for a heart condition. Moscow, however, has a different view of the visit — that it didn’t happen at all. Reports of the hospital visit are “the highest level of fakes,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson MARIA ZAKHAROVA said in a statement. Zakharova posted a video of Lavrov, appearing healthy and wearing a T-shirt and shorts, responding to the reports of his hospitalization: “They’ve been writing about our president for 10 years that he’s fallen ill. It’s a game that is not new in politics,” Lavrov said in the video. JAPAN RETHINKS MILITARY DEPENDENCY: Japan has relied mainly on the United States for its security and protection since the end of World War II. That’s starting to change as threats in the Indo-Pacific and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changes the calculus in Tokyo. “The country’s governing party is pushing to increase Japan’s defense budget drastically, develop more military hardware domestically and redefine what it can do with those weapons under the pacifist constitution in place since the end of World War II,” The New York Times’ MOTOKO RICH and HIKARI HIDA report. Such a shift requires deft diplomacy as it could scare China and regional countries that Japan will once again run roughshod in East Asia. But any concerns likely won’t change Tokyo’s current trajectory. “We have to fortify our defenses in order to fortify the alliance,” ICHIRO FUJISAKI, a former Japanese ambassador to the United States, told the NYT. “We can’t let the Americans do everything, and we have to do more on our own.” Read: Alex at his last job did a deep dive into Japan’s changing views on its military .
| | | SNEAKY SOFTWARE: Computer code developed by Pushwoosh, a Russian technology company, was found in CDC and Army software after being disguised as American, Reuters' JAMES PEARSON and MARISA TAYLOR reports. The CDC removed the software from seven apps after the health agency was deceived into believing the tech company was based D.C.. The Army removed the app in March after noting similar concerns after an app that featured the software was used by troops for training. Pushwoosh claims to be an American company in U.S. regulatory filings, with headquarters in California, Maryland and Washington, D.C. The app's code is embedded in nearly 8,000 apps in Apple and Google's app stores. The Russian company’s business with the U.S. government and private companies could violate Federal Trade Commission laws or trigger sanctions, according to experts.
| | | | Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 14th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 18. The full three-day agenda is here . | | | | | | | | WE MEET AGAIN: The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet again virtually on Wednesday, where speeding the delivery of additional air defense systems is likely to be high on the agenda, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The 50-nation forum last month orchestrated the approval of HAWK anti-aircraft systems from Spain, along with U.S. stores of missiles for the launchers. But Kyiv needs all it can get as Russia continues to target civilian infrastructure with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones. Last week, the Pentagon agreed to send Avenger short-range air-defense batteries. Kyiv is also seeking more equipment to see it through the winter, including tanks, a steady supply of artillery shells and cold weather gear.
| | | WILL THEY WON’T THEY: Congress returns today with just weeks to pass a final NDAA for the current fiscal year, but it’s not a lock that the Senate will be able to pass its own version, our friends over at Morning Defense also reports . The House passed its defense bill in July, but the Senate has not yet done so. The Senate last month teed up an updated version of its bill with 75 amendments for a total of $847 billion — authorizing $45 billion more than Biden sought. But the bill faces a big obstacle: Majority Leader Schumer is weighing pulling the NDAA to instead focus on confirming nominees, Bloomberg reported . A congressional aide familiar with the process also told our own CONNOR O’BRIEN last week that shelving a vote on the bill is on the table, but no decision had been made. If the Senate punts, it would be the second year the chamber hasn’t passed a bill of its own. A deadlock over amendments forced Democrats to yank the bill from the floor last year and go directly to negotiations with the House on a final bill.
| | | WAR HAWKS ATTACK PUTIN: Russian pro-war activists have amped up their criticism of the military's performance following their withdrawal from Kherson last week, The New York Times' NEIL MACFARQUHAR reports. ALEKSANDR DUGIN, a right-wing commentator in Russia, criticized the military on social and questioned whether the annexation referendum votes were legitimate due to the large crowds that welcomed Ukrainian soldiers after the region was liberated. Russia, illegally and with no evidence, declared that it had annexed Kherson in September but never fully controlled the area. Although Russian state media claims the withdrawal from Kherson is temporary, critics like Wagner Group leader YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN have called out generals to criticize military tactics and advocate for even greater violence. While some critics have directed their ire at military leaders, others have attributed Russia's shortcomings on the battlefield to Putin. “His decisions are not up for discussion,” an editorial in Nezavisimaya Gazeta, an independent Russian newspaper. “Therefore, he himself cannot make mistakes because there is no mechanism to correct them. A leader who admits a mistake lowers his status, which puts his qualities into doubt.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: SHANA MANSBACH is now speechwriter and senior adviser to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN at the State Department. Mansbach, a former director of speechwriting for Speaker NANCY PELOSI, most recently was deputy director of communications for Pelosi and is an Obama State Department alum. — #ShareTheMicInCyber and New America are welcoming its inaugural class of #ShareTheMicInCyber fellows, who will support cybersecurity professionals from underrepresented communities as they pursue original policy research and projects while also providing opportunities for professional development. They are: SARAH AOUN, former CTO at Open Tech Fund; MICHAEL GARCIA, senior policy advisor at CISA; ROSHAWN MARCELL VALENTINO TERRELL, research scientist at Vectorspace AI; SAFI MOJIDI, head of information security at FOLX Health; THOMAS ROWLAND, researcher at Swords to Plowshares; STEFFANIE SCHILLING, senior cyber consultant at Ernst & Young; and LILI TIMMERMANN, counsel at Perry Guha. — MARY BETH LONG has joined drone maker Red Cat's board of directors. Long was previously an assistant secretary of Defense.
| | | — MARY ILYUSHINA, The Washington Post: Fighting-age men in Russia are still hiding in fear of being sent to war — Editorial Board, The Wall Street Journal: America’s Tactical Nuclear Stand-Down — DEXTER FILKINS, The New Yorker: A Dangerous Game Over Taiwan
| | | — The Institute for Defense and Government Advancement, 8:45 a.m.: “ Realizing Joint All-Domain Command And Control ” — House Homeland Security Committee, 9:30 a.m.: "Worldwide Threats to the Homeland" — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 10 a.m.: “ Indo-Pacific Powers and NATO: A conversation with the Ambassadors of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea ” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: “ Agriculture in Wartime: Threats and Opportunities for Ukraine with Farmer KEES HUIZINGA, Agricultural Economist ANTONINA BROYAKA, and USAID DAA MARK SIMAKOVSKY ” — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 10:30 a.m.: “ 2022 Annual Report to Congress ” — The University of Maryland's Center for International and Security Studies: “ The US and the Turbulent World of Autocracy: A Discussion with Admiral DENNIS BLAIR ” — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 12 p.m.: “Public Members Briefing on the Erosion of Democracy and Rule of Law in Hungary” — The American Security Project, 12 p.m.: "The Recruiting Crisis: Obesity’s Challenge to Military Readiness" — The Center for a New American Security, 2 p.m.: “Virtual Mission Brief: The Role of Allies and Partners in the National Defense Strategy with Dr. CELESTE WALLANDER” — Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Forward, 3 p.m.: "Advancing the Horizons of National Security" — The Middle East Institute, 4 p.m.: "Yemen: Arts, Culture & Resilience in a Time of War" — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 5:30 p.m.: Leadership Dinner with The Hon. CHRISTOPHER SCOLESE Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we’re working with to find common ground after years of competition. And we thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who is always on our team.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
