Look who’s not coming to dinner

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Thursday Dec 01,2022 09:08 pm
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By Nahal Toosi , Alexander Ward and Matt Berg

President Joe Biden meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in the Oval Office.

President Joe Biden meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in the Oval Office. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo

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With help from Daniel Lippman

Here’s what NatSecDaily wants to know: Why is French President EMMANUEL MACRON in town tonight for a state dinner?

Set aside that France is America’s oldest ally and that a French leader has sat down for a fancy meal with every one of his U.S. counterparts since BILL CLINTON. The real question is why France is receiving the honor instead of another nation.

The White House says it’s to showcase President JOE BIDEN’s commitment to America’s alliances (and not as a mea culpa for the AUKUS kerfuffle ). Biden’s time in office has been defined by working closely with friendly countries on big issues like climate change and countering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Hosting Macron serves as the capstone in proving that “America is back” on the world stage.

“We are proving to people around the world that democracies deliver, from our joint leadership to make sure partners everywhere — everywhere and parents everywhere can be — feed their children, to cooperate and to tackle the climate crisis and preserve our planet for generations yet to come,” Biden said during Macron’s White House arrival ceremony Thursday.

In our (often private) conversations with current and former foreign officials ahead of the Maine lobster feast , four main criticisms of that argument emerge.

First, the focus on showcasing the strength of U.S. alliances suggests the administration isn’t convinced it has proven the concept. Two years in, the White House must feel it has to foot stomp the point. Consider this: A French official said that Paris thought it was a good time for Biden and Macron to meet and discuss several issues. “The Americans came back with the idea of a state dinner,” the official said. Like others quoted here, the official spoke on condition of anonymity to freely speak of diplomatically sensitive topics.

Veteran diplomats expect other U.S. allies to rush to get similar treatment. “Now the people who’ll be most active will be the German, British and Japanese ambassadors, trying to get their leaders state dinners,” an Asian ambassador told us.

Second, a persistent focus on Europe — for understandable and long-standing reasons — leaves countries in Latin America and Africa feeling neglected . ( Biden has held calls with the leaders of some countries , including France, more than all of the leaders of the African continent.) And while the U.S. has and will continue to host summits for leaders in these regions, such group-based diplomacy doesn’t carry the same weight as one-on-one attention in cocktail attire.

That said, if Biden decided to do Latin America or Africa, “then which country?” asked IVO DAALDER, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former U.S. ambassador to NATO. “How does he decide among them without upsetting the others?”

Using the dinner as an incentive could have strategic advantages. Hosting the leader of Indonesia or Costa Rica or Mongolia could be an opportunity to woo back nations that China is trying to influence, including by showing concern for their people suffering from high food and fuel prices caused by Russia’s war.

Third, the opportunity cost of feteing France is that the U.S. doesn’t use the moment to improve ties with a less-than-friendly country. The White House has previously held state dinners for governments-in-exile, not to mention the Soviet Union’s NIKITA KHRUSHCHEV and MIKHAIL GORBACHEV — though no one is suggesting inviting Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN to dinner.

This likely won’t be Biden’s last state dinner, so what many in Washington and foreign capitals will be watching for is who next gets to don the lobster bib at the White House.

 

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The Inbox

BREAKING: Raytheon’s CEO tells our own LEE HUDSON that they’re trying to shift NASAMS from the Middle East to Ukraine.

IRAN RAMPS UP ASSASSINATION EFFORTS: Iran has increased its efforts to kidnap and kill government officials, journalists and activists around the world, including in the U.S., The Washington Post’s SHANE HARRIS, SOUAD MEKHENNET and YEGANEH TORBATI report .

Targets have included former senior U.S. officials, dissidents who have fled to the West, journalists critical of Tehran and Jewish civilians or people with links to Israel, according to government documents and interviews with 15 officials in Washington, Europe and the Middle East.

Iran relies heavily on proxies to carry out its plans, offering large sums of money to criminals for murder-for-hire schemes. These often fail, officials said, as was the case with the assassination plots of former national security adviser JOHN BOLTON and former secretary of state MIKE POMPEO revealed earlier this year.

But Iran’s persistence means it’s likely that they’ll carry out a successful high-profile killing sooner or later, officials told the Post.

Related: License to kill: How Europe lets Iran and Russia get away with murder

RUSSIA RETREATS ALONG DNIPRO RIVER: Moscow has pulled some of its troops from towns on the opposite side of the Dnipro River from Kherson, marking the first official report from the Ukrainian military of a Russian withdrawal in the region, Reuters’ ANTHONY DEUTSCH reports .

The military gave no indication whether Ukrainian troops had crossed the river since the retreat. However, officials stressed that Russians have increased shelling in the area, resulting in power outages in Kherson where electricity had just started to turn back on after Russian troops left the city last month.

Russia has previously directed civilians to evacuate towns near the river, and Ukraine has indicated that opposing forces have pulled back artillery from the river to safer positions.

PRICE CAP: The European Union’s executive body has asked all 27 bloc members to cap the price of Russian oil at $60 a barrel, the Wall Street Journal’s LAURENCE NORMAN reports .

If agreed to — a far-from-certain outcome — it would starve Moscow of much-needed revenue since Russian crude prices are currently on the market for $88 a barrel.

As Norman writes: “All 27 of the EU’s member states need to approve the cap, which would be reviewed every two months starting in mid-January, according to the proposal. But members have largely coalesced around a cap of $60 a barrel to such a degree that the commission believes it can get a deal at this level.”

The cap would take effect on Dec. 5.

IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 .

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye .

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Flashpoints

NEW NORTH KOREA SANCTIONS: The Biden administration sanctioned three North Korean officials Thursday for Pyongyang’s recent barrage of missile tests, including ICBMs that theoretically could reach the U.S. mainland.

JON IL HO, YU JIN and KIM SU GIL, high-ranking members of the Workers’ Party of Korea, were targeted because they are responsible for North Korea’s nuclear and missiles program. Their assets in the U.S. are now blocked.

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN previewed the move during a virtual address at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Wednesday.

The U.S. has tried to negotiate with North Korea, but Pyongyang hasn’t responded favorably to the idea. Now the administration is resorting to sanctions, a punishment that hasn’t stopped North Korea from building and expanding its nuclear arsenal.

EXPLOSIVE AT U.S. EMBASSY IN SPAIN: An explosive inside an envelope was found at the U.S. embassy in Madrid on Thursday as a wave of explosive packages being sent in Spain’s capital have been reported in the last day, our own GUY HEDGECOE reports .

Police detonated the explosive, according to the Spanish Interior Ministry. No injuries were reported.

On Wednesday, an explosive inside an envelope sent to Ukraine’s embassy in Spain detonated, injuring one diplomat. Other explosive devices concealed in the same manner were sent to the Spanish prime minister’s office, the defense ministry, a weapons manufacturer and a military base in recent days.

Keystrokes

POST-QUANTUM CABLES: French diplomats sent their first “post-quantum” cable on Wednesday, France’s Embassy in the U.S. announced today, signaling a whole new era of diplomatic communications.

According to PASCAL CONFAVREUX , spokesperson for the French mission in Washington, the cable — which can’t be decoded using quantum computing — traveled from D.C. to Paris yesterday, the same day Macron arrived in the U.S.

“Tomorrow, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer will be able to break all cryptographic algorithms and decrypt our messages. To counter this threat, developing post-quantum encryption technologies is a strategic challenge,” Confavreux said.

The U.S. government has warned companies to start including post-quantum encryption technologies to safeguard their information, which is still a long way away from being the standard. France, it seems, is ahead of the curve.

The Complex

DONE DEAL: The Army announced on Wednesday that it has awarded Raytheon a $1.2 billion contract for six National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System batteries for Ukraine, and pledged to get them to the front as quickly as possible, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report .

The pending deal was first made public in August, amid criticism that DoD and the defense industry are not adapting quickly enough to wartime demands for Ukraine to defend against indiscriminate Russian missile attacks.

The Army committed in a statement that it “will work to shorten the 24-month production lead time associated with production and delivery of NASAMS.”

 

GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our “Future Pulse” newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .

 
 
On the Hill

SENATE DEMS MEET JEWISH LEADERS: Two dozen Senate Democrats met with about 20 leaders of Jewish groups on Capitol Hill Wednesday, Jewish Insider’s MARC ROD reports , discussing key issues about the relationship during a tense time.

Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) led the meeting for senators.

“We encourage lines of communication between governments to be robust and for disagreements to be conveyed privately — away from the bright lights of those who seek to damage the connection between our two countries,” WILLIAM DAROFF , the CEO of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, told the lawmakers.

“An attendee and another source familiar with the proceedings said that leaders from some groups on the left differed from mainstream leaders in advocating a harder-line approach to the new Israeli governing coalition, which is set to include several ministers from the Israeli far-right,” Rod reports.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU seems poised to form a government that includes members of the Israeli far right . Perhaps in a subtle warning against this, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will address the left-leaning pro-Israel group J Street on Sunday.

DITCH ACT: Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) and Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) introduced a bill Thursday that would force tax-exempt entities like universities or public pension plans to end funding from Chinese companies or risk losing their status.

The Dump Investments in Troublesome Communist Holdings Act , or DITCH, specifically says a disqualified Chinese company includes one incorporated or based in China, has more than 10 percent stock owned by a combination of Chinese entities, or directly or indirectly owned by a Chinese entity.

Republicans have long pushed hard to end any Chinese influence on these entities. This bill aims to do just that, though it’s unclear if the bill will ever come up for a vote in either chamber.

Broadsides

MACRON BLASTS U.S. CLIMATE LAW: Before his meeting with Biden, Macron Wednesday night said the U.S. was “ fragmenting the West ” with the climate law that subsidizes American companies to the detriment of French industry.

“The choices of the past few months, in particular the IRA, are choices that will fragment the west,” he said of the Inflation Reduction Act during a speech at the French Embassy in Washington, D.C. “We need to coordinate and resynchronise our policy agendas.”

The law provides around $400 billion in incentives to boost the transition to a more green economy, namely subsidies for the production of electric cars. That puts pressure on Macron, who the French public directly blames for any blows to French business (remember AUKUS?).

Surely this came up during the presidential-level discussion.

 

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Transitions

ALEKSANDAR VULIN, a staunchly pro-Russian politician, has been tapped as Serbia’s new spy chief, the Associated Press reports . He served as the country’s interior minister in the previous government before being named director of the national intelligence agency.

JULIAN SIMCOCK is now director for global criminal justice at the National Security Council. He most recently was deputy legal adviser at the U.S. Mission to the U.N.

RHEANNE WIRKKALA is now assistant secretary of defense for legislative affairs at DoD. She most recently was special assistant to the secretary of defense for strategy.

— Former Rep. ABBY FINKENAUER (D-Iowa) is joining the State Department as special envoy for global youth issues.

What to Read

— JAMES FOLEY, POLITICO: I’ve Seen Military Intervention in Haiti Up Close. We Can’t Repeat the Same Mistakes.

— STACIE PETTYJOHN, ANDREW METRICK and BECCA WASSER, War On The Rocks: The Kadena Conundrum: Developing a Resilient Indo-Pacific Posture

— AGATHE DEMARAIS, Foreign Policy: Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.

Tomorrow Today

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: “The Importance of US Alliances in Europe: A Conversation with Sen. JONI ERNST

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: Book discussion on "Empires of Eurasia: How Imperial Legacies Shape International Security”

— The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: "Ukraine's Digital Resilience: A conversation with Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine MYKHAILO FEDOROV

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has refused every one of our dinner invitations.

And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who is the life of every dinner party.

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