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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Progressive and antiwar groups are becoming increasingly divided over the right policy and tactics in Yemen following the withdrawal of the Yemen War Powers Resolution. | Chris McGrath/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Erin Banco and Connor O'Brien Progressive and antiwar groups are becoming increasingly divided over the right policy and tactics in Yemen following the withdrawal of the Yemen War Powers Resolution. And that’s illuminating a struggle for the movement’s future. Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) abandoned his plan on Tuesday to introduce the resolution to end U.S. involvement in “hostilities” alongside the Saudi-led coalition. Unlike a 2019 version, this year’s measure labeled providing intelligence and maintenance operations as hostilities. It was a far broader definition that the Biden administration argued would hinder U.S. military assistance to other nations, and so it lobbied against Sanders’ effort. Sanders had 105 national organizations ready to support his effort, but couldn’t get the votes needed for it to pass. Now that Sanders has pulled the resolution, a debate has spilled out into the open among the groups about the wisdom of supporting the senator’s surprise move. One side argues that backing the lawmaker’s effort was folly, especially since there was no guarantee the resolution would pass. “You got 105 groups, but did you get 51 senators?” one congressional Democratic aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. This faction sees the lack of a legislative victory as a setback for the movement as a whole. “In the long run, what they’re doing is undermining support for activism,” KATE KIZER, a fellow at the Center for International Policy, said of the groups backing Sanders’ push. Some of the groups’ staffers told me on the condition of anonymity to protect their organizations, that they had considered not signing on to a Dec. 7 letter of support for Sanders’ resolution because the situation on the ground had changed. The Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi rebels in Yemen that April agreed to a ceasefire that has tenuously held since. And they didn’t want the Saudis to walk away from the table. But those groups felt the costs of staying on the letter were less than moving off of it. Since the Yemen war is the biggest issue in the progressive foreign policy world, they feared fielding queries from their constituents about not being on the letter — so they stayed on it. The pro-resolution side contends that backing the vote was the right idea, moving the Yemen issue to the top of newsletters like this one. “Bernie got a commitment from the administration to work with him on Yemen policy. That wouldn’t have happened had he not put the resolution on the floor,” said another Democratic congressional aide. “I see this as a win,” said HASSAN EL-TAYYAB , the lead lobbyist for the Friends Committee on National Legislation on the Yemen resolution. “We’re willing to work with anybody that wants to work with us to get that done. What we’re trying to do is end all aspects of U.S. complicity in Saudi airstrikes.” NatSec Daily has tracked the yawning gap in views in this progressive and antiwar movement for weeks, especially since the fallout of the Congressional Progressive Caucus’ Ukraine-diplomacy letter. Not having a common foe like former President DONALD TRUMP to focus their animosities has led the disagreements to reach us and other reporters. There are also some personal rivalries animating the debate. Whatever tentative peace there was within the ideologically disparate community is now clearly over. The diverse community is hashing it out in the policy and activist arenas for all to see — and will shape the national security debate in the next Congress and beyond.
| | | | POLITICO AT CES 2023 : We are bringing a special edition of our Digital Future Daily newsletter to Las Vegas to cover CES 2023. The newsletter will take you inside the largest and most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the event. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of CES 2023. | | | | | | | | ‘ANOTHER GO AT KYIV’: Ukraine’s top general believes that Russia will renew its attempt to capture Kyiv. “The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv,” Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNY told the Economist in an interview published Thursday. “It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A czar tells them to go to war, and they go to war.” Zaluzhny warned of another coming Russian offensive as early as January, potentially coming from the Donbas, Ukraine’s south or from Belarus. The general said Ukraine’s main goal now is to hold on to what it has, since it is “10 to 15 times harder” to liberate ground than to keep it. “May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me; it’s more important to focus on the accumulation of resources right now for the more protracted and heavier battles that may begin next year,” Zaluzhny said. U.S. PLAYS CATCH UP TO CHINA ON AFRICA: President JOE BIDEN promised $55 billion in government funding and private investment to the African nations as the United States attempts to compete with China’s strong influence on the continent, the Associated Press’ AAMER MADHANI and COLLEEN LONG report. At the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, the president presented his pitch to become a reliable partner for Africa, in both promoting democratic elections and advancing critical health and energy growth. That comes as China has far surpassed the U.S. in its consistent diplomacy and investment in the continent. “There is no doubt that China has outworked the U.S. diplomatically going back years,” TOM SHEEHY, a distinguished fellow in U.S. Institute of Peace Africa Center, told NatSec Daily. “For one, there has been much more high-level political engagement by China. This Summit is a good start to being more engaged in Africa, but it has to be sustained engagement.” 36 COMPANIES BLACKLISTED: The Commerce Department placed 36 firms on the Entity List today for their support for China’s military and human rights abuses. The companies — all but one headquartered in China — will now be barred from accessing American technology for their work, including artificial intelligence chip research, development and manufacturing. The most notable addition to the blacklist is Chinese chipmaker Yangtze Memory Technologies, known as YMTC. That company, among others, were already in the crosshairs from senior lawmakers for violating export controls by selling to Chinese telecom giant Huawei and their alleged ties to the Chinese military. “YMTC poses an immediate threat to our national security, so the Biden administration needed to act swiftly to prevent YMTC from gaining even an inch of a military or economic advantage,” Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said in a statement. Schumer’s office told NatSec Daily that he was publicly and privately lobbying the administration to make this move. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | | FINALLY FORMALIZED: After months of delays, the European Union and NATO are expected to soon formally issue a joint call for Russia to stop its war and leave Ukraine, and to pledge full support to Kyiv, our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI reports. A draft of the declaration, which was partially reviewed by POLITICO, has been in the works for more than a year but held up over tensions between Turkey and Cyprus, diplomats said. Now, a final version appears near, and two diplomats said it is expected to be presented as soon as next week, or early next year if end-of-year schedules get in the way. While the text is largely unremarkable, making it official would be a notable diplomatic achievement because of the months it took to formalize. The document had originally been expected to get a sign-off at the NATO summit in Madrid last June. JFK FILES: The National Archives on Thursday released close to 8,000 once-classified documents on the JFK assassination, our own ERIN BANCO writes in. Many of the files pertained to what’s known as the “personality file” for LEE HARVEY OSWALD. Spoiler alert: No bombshells. There’s nothing to suggest Oswald was not the gunman, and there is nothing in the papers to suggest there was a conspiracy behind Kennedy’s death, Shenon writes. A spokesperson for the CIA said as of today, 95 percent of the CIA documents within the JFK Act records collection have been released in their entirety. “What little information remains redacted in CIA records in the Collection consists of intelligence sources and methods—some from as late as the 1990s, provided initially to give the JFK Review Board overall context on the CIA—the release of which would currently do identifiable harm to intelligence operations,” the spokesperson said. The CIA said it believes “all substantive information known to be directly related to Oswald has been released,” the spokesperson said. Read: The National Archives Is About to Release More JFK Files. Here’s What to Expect.
| | | HACKERS TARGET UKRAINE AID: Russian hackers are attempting to interfere in military aid supplies to Ukraine, along with targeting Poland where the aid often comes through, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pro!). The hacks add to the wider ongoing cyberattacks linked to Russia, before and after its invasion of Ukraine, including efforts to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the winter months. “There is certainly an interest in the lethal aid supplies that are coming from Ukraine’s allies into the region,” ROB JOYCE , director of cybersecurity at the NSA, told reporters. “We see intelligence activities on that, certainly an uptick in targeting in Poland given the nature of supplies coming in through there as well.” Joyce's comments came after Microsoft alleged in November that Russian government-linked hackers were behind ransomware attacks on groups in Ukraine and Poland involved in providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. TICK TOCK ON TIKTOK?: A bill to ban TikTok from being used or downloaded on any federal device was passed in the Senate by unanimous consent Wednesday evening, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports. The legislation, introduced by Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) in April 2021, calls for the government to develop standards and guidelines for agencies to remove the app from devices, with exceptions for law enforcement, national security and research activities. But it still has to pass the House by the end of the year to reach Biden’s desk. Lawmakers have raised concerns since TikTok’s rise to prominence in recent years over its parent company, ByteDance, and its ties to the Chinese government. Skeptics worry that the platform, which uses algorithms to predict a users’ preferred viewing content, could share data with the Chinese government and be used to spy on citizens, though the company denies these charges. On Tuesday, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), along with Reps. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) and RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.) introduced bicameral and bipartisan legislation to ban TikTok in the United States.
| | | | A NEW POLITICO PODCAST: POLITICO Tech is an authoritative insider briefing on the politics and policy of technology. From crypto and the metaverse to cybersecurity and AI, we explore the who, what and how of policy shaping future industries. We’re kicking off with a series exploring darknet market places, the virtual platforms that enable actors from all corners of the online world to traffic illicit goods. As malware and cybercrime attacks become increasingly frequent, regulators and law enforcement agencies work different angles to shut these platforms down, but new, often more unassailable marketplaces pop up. SUBSCRIBE AND START LISTENING TODAY. | | | | | | | | NEW WEAPONS: The U.S. is planning to expand the types of weapons it sends Ukraine amid fears that Russian troops could move towards Kyiv in January, our own LARA SELIGMAN, ERIN BANCO and PAUL McLEARY report. In addition to giving Ukraine Patriot missile defense systems, new transfers could include weapons such as Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, which would convert unguided aerial munitions into smart bombs with high accuracy, and Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, which would expand Ukraine's strike range, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. The Pentagon is also considering expanding training for Ukrainian troops at a U.S. base in Germany. The new security aid comes as Kyiv's late-summer battlefield success has stalled amid Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets, including crippling strikes on the country's energy infrastructure. Despite renewed U.S. support, Washington’s inability to provide long-range weapons raises questions about whether Ukrainian troops will be able to make progress in the coming weeks.
| | | FUNDING FOR KYIV AND TAIPEI: A bipartisan group of congressional leaders are asking for more funding for weapons sales not just to aid Ukraine, but also to arm Taiwan, as part of a year-end spending package, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. The missive was signed by Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and ranking Republican JIM RISCH of Idaho, as well as House Foreign Affairs Chair GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) and top GOP member MICHAEL MCCAUL of Texas. The group wants to provide at least $1.5 billion to Taipei, $500 million to Kyiv and $250 million to allies supporting Ukraine. The push comes after advocates of arming Taiwan to deter an attack from China, led by Menendez in the upper chamber, secured an authorization for $10 billion in military assistance over five years to the self-governing island as part of defense policy legislation set to clear Congress as soon as Thursday. TALKING TAIWAN: The House may hold a hearing next year to zero in on the cyber threats involved in a potential China-Taiwan conflict, Rep. Gallagher told Maggie. Gallagher, who is set to chair the Select Committee on China in the new Congress, said he is hoping to work with both the House Armed Services and House Homeland Security panels in putting together a joint hearing to help members “wargame out” the cybersecurity components of “a Taiwan scenario.” “We don’t have a full appreciation for how cyber would play, and how cyber specifically would play on the American homeland,” Gallagher said. “What would the Chinese do in terms of going after with cyber weapons our seaports of debarkation, our airports of debarkation, potentially attacking infrastructure with cyber weapons?”
| | | THE NEXT PANDEMIC: Lawmakers say that the intelligence community was not prepared for the Covid-19 pandemic and did not move quickly enough to gather information about the spread of the virus, our own ERIN BANCO reports. That’s according to a report released Thursday by Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee, which looks at the intelligence community’s response to Covid-19, particularly in the early days of 2020. The collectors largely focused on analyzing data about the virus that was already being discussed openly by public health officials and experts across the world, the report said, arguing that they moved too slowly to collect clandestine information. Senior health officials have repeatedly said over the past two years that if the U.S. — and the rest of the world — had put measures in place to help contain and isolate the virus sooner, Covid-19 might not have spread at such a devastating pace. “Part of our aim in this report is to get the intelligence community to refocus strategically on where the threats actually are,” one of the committee’s investigators said.
| | | |   | | | | | | — JOSEFIN GRAEF will be a D.C.-based fellow at the AICGS next summer and fall, focusing on countering white supremacist violence in the United States and Germany. She’s currently a research associate at the Aston Center for Europe.
| | | — JON BATEMAN, POLITICO: The Fevered Anti-China Attitude in Washington Is Going to Backfire — MAX ROSE, The New York Times: An Unvaccinated Military Puts Our National Security at Risk — ELISABETH BRAW, Foreign Policy: Sanction-Busting Russian Ships Are Going Under the Radar
| | | —The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 8:30 a.m.: The Biden Foreign Policy at Two Years — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: Evaluating Taiwan’s quest for international space — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:15 a.m.: The Capital Cable #61: Korea and East Asia with MARK LAMBERT — The United States Institute of Peace, 2:45 p.m.:A Conversation with Nigerian President MUHAMMADU BUHARI Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who maintains “hostilities” while editing this newsletter. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who will help negotiate peace between us.
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