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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Alexander Ward and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
“From the speaker of the House to newly minted freshmen … I think they should all go to Taiwan. Their visits are going to be very well received,” Sen. Todd Young said. | Rod Lamkey/Pool via AP | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Listen up, lawmakers. If Sen. TODD YOUNG can make a trip to Taiwan, why can’t you? That’s the sentiment the Indiana Republican shared with NatSec Daily from Japan, where he met with the country’s top leaders after doing the same in Taiwan a few days prior. Last year, then-House Minority leader KEVIN McCARTHY promised to retrace NANCY PELOSI’s steps and visit the island nation once he became speaker. We’re a few weeks into the new term, however, and Taiwan is yet to be written into McCarthy’s schedule (publicly, at least). When asked whether McCarthy should make the visit, Young said the answer is simple. “I think every member of Congress should visit Taiwan,” said Young, who has penned legislation to counter China’s semiconductor industry and economic coercion by strengthening trade and commerce ties with allies. “From the speaker of the House to newly minted freshmen … I think they should all go to Taiwan. Their visits are going to be very well received.” Well received by Taiwan, that is. China was livid about the senator’s visit. Days before Young’s trip, one of his top staffers received a threatening email from the Chinese Embassy, which was reviewed by NatSec Daily. In the message, the embassy official urged the senator to discreetly cancel the visit to Taiwan and warned of increased instability in the region if he followed through. It would further damage relations between the U.S. and China and “send wrong signals” to those who support Taiwan’s independence, the official wrote. The Chinese Communist Party views Taiwan as its own territory under its “One China” policy. Several members of Congress received similar messages from Chinese officials in recent months, due to their interest in visiting the island nation or supporting it via legislation, as Semafor reported in October. “I think we’ll see more of this as we push back against the Chinese,” Young said. “It’s certainly not going to deter me.” That determination was clear during Young’s Indo-Pacific tour this week, where he met with Taiwan President TSAI ING-WEN to discuss Chinese aggression toward the nation and with Japanese leaders to talk about how to deter China. With Japan inflating its military spending to historic proportions and the U.S. planning to station thousands of additional Marines in Okinawa equipped with missiles, Taiwan will be ready for a Chinese invasion, Young said. That could come sooner rather than later, he argued, despite U.S. officials’ predictions that an offensive isn’t imminent. “The next five years [are] especially critical to do everything we can to deter invasion,” the senator said, citing China’s struggles with Covid, its population decrease and other issues as evidence that Beijing’s power is waning. “I actually have been persuaded,” Young warned, “that the near term is the more dangerous window.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | NO TANKS: Germany’s message to the world is that it won’t authorize any Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine — at least not yet, our own HANS VON DER BURCHARD and CORY BENNETT report. German Defense Minister BORIS PISTORIUS said Friday at the Ukraine Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base that the government has yet to decide whether to send its own tanks to Ukraine and whether it will let other countries that have the German-made Leapords reexport them to Kyiv. The week had been filled with reports that Germany was about to move on tanks, but the issue has now been pocketed for at least a few more days. Poland’s foreign minister ZBIGNIEW RAU vented his frustration over the delay on Twitter, calling for movement as soon as possible. “Arming Ukraine in order to repel the Russian aggression is not some kind of decision-making exercise. Ukrainian blood is shed for real,” he wrote. “This is the price of hesitation over Leopard deliveries. We need action, now.” There seems to be some confusion within the German government. This week at Davos, Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ told U.S. lawmakers that he wasn’t going to approve the transfer of Leopards until America sent its M1 Abrams tanks. Two days later, Pistorius said there had never been any linkage between Leopards and Abrams. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN seemed to implicitly criticize the Germans in his Friday address at Ramstein. “This is not a moment to slow down — it’s a time to dig deeper,” Austin said. “The Ukrainian people are watching us, the Kremlin is watching us, and history is watching us.” After the meeting, Austin told reporters that the U.S. is “pushing hard” to provide Ukraine with tanks and other armored vehicles, our own PAUL MCLEARY and LILI BAYER report. Check out more on new aid to Ukraine in the Complex section. NAVY SEAL KILLED IN UKRAINE: A Navy Seal who went AWOL four years ago was killed this week fighting alongside Ukrainian troops, TIME’s W.J. HENNIGAN and MOLLY BALL report, citing a Navy official. DANIEL SWIFT died after being injured while with a Ukrainian unit under attack by Russian forces, the official said. It was unclear where Swift, a Navy Special Warfare Operator First Class, was located during the fight. Swift had an “active deserter status” since March 2019, according to records obtained by TIME. He received an Iraq Campaign Medal, an Afghanistan Campaign Medal and a Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal. State Department officials didn’t confirm Swift’s identity but said an American was killed in action. MACRON TO BOOST MILITARY: French President EMMANUEL MACRON proposed to increase his country’s defense spending by more than a third in an effort to “transform” the military by 2030. Per Macron’s proposal, the country would spend about $450 billion on the military over the next six years, the Associated Press’ SYLVIE CORBET and ANGELA CHARLTON report. In comparison, the last military spending budget was about $319 billion. The funds were earmarked to modernize the country’s nuclear arsenal, increase intelligence spending by 60 percent, double the number of reservists, enhance cyberdefense and develop more remote-controlled weapons. “Nuclear deterrence is an element that makes France different from other countries in Europe. We see anew, in analyzing the war in Ukraine, its vital importance,” Macron said in a speech to military personnel today. ANOTHER ONE: The Netherlands will provide two Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, along with missiles, defense chief ONNO EICHELSHEIM tweeted. It was reported earlier this week that the country would send one of the systems, on par with shipments from the U.S. and Germany. NEW SANCTIONS ON WAGNER GROUP: The Biden administration announced new sanctions against the Wagner Group, Russia’s private military arm, and designated it as a significant transnational criminal organization, our own KELLY HOOPER reports. “These actions recognize the transcontinental threat that Wagner poses, including through its ongoing pattern of serious criminal activity,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said at a White House press briefing. The Wagner Group, owned by Russian oligarch YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, has been instrumental for Russia as its forces push forward in key cities Soledar and Bakhmut. Wagner and Prigozhin have been under U.S. sanctions for years, but Kirby said the organization “is becoming a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries,” with an estimated 50,000 personnel deployed to Ukraine, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink. This week, we’re featuring Rep. MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. We caught up with her in Davos, and she was pining for a Cuban coffee from The Versailles in Miami. That restaurant “is the heart of the Cuban exile community in the United States,” she said, noting that thousands of Cubans went there to celebrate the death of FIDEL CASTRO. The Versailles “happens to be the heart of [Florida’s] District 27, the one that I represent,” she said. You’re about to read more below on what the representative is working on. But, for now, salud! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | INTENSE BATTLE: A deadly battle between Somalian forces and al-Shabab fighters resulted in the death of more than 100 people, the Associated Press' OMAR FARUK reports. Fighting has taken place near a Somalian military base that had recently been captured by the government after a major military offensive began in August to counter the extremists. The government claimed that seven soldiers, including a U.S.-trained fighter, were killed in the battle. Somalia’s government declared “total war” on al-Shabab last year and has had success in retaking territory long held by the extremist group. NO SAUDI-ISRAEL NORMALIZATION: Israel’s new government wants to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, but Riyadh still says there must be a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians before any such agreement is made. “True normalization and true stability will only come through giving the Palestinians hope and dignity and that requires giving the Palestinians a state," Prince FAISAL BIN FARHAN AL SAUD, the nation’s top diplomat, said Friday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum. The statement comes as national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN met with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU in Jerusalem to discuss pathways to normalization. But the prince’s comments, and those of other Saudi officials over the past months, make clear the path is full of roadblocks.
| | | NEED A JOB?: ByteDance, the Chinese owner of TikTok, is hiring a new strategic response communications lead in D.C., our own GAVIN BADE and DANIEL LIPPMAN write in Morning Trade (for Pros!). The U.S. version of TikTok is in Washington’s crosshairs, with the Biden administration pondering whether to force ByteDance to sell it and some congressional China hawks pushing for an outright ban. The job listing — notable because it is from the Chinese parent company, not the American TikTok subsidiary — asks for “strong crisis communications experience” and says the hire will be responsible for “responding strategically and rapidly to breaking news and crisis issues.”
| | | TWO BILLION TO UKRAINE: The U.S. announced a massive $2.5 billion military aid package to Ukraine Thursday evening. Included in this round were 59 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, 90 Stryker armored combat vehicles, 53 Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, eight Avenger air defense systems, 350 Humvees and High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles. Since Russia’s invasion, the U.S. has sent $26.7 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Notably, the package didn’t include ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs, which were expected to be included this time around.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | DIGNITY ACT: After decades of inaction, the stars may be (slowly) aligning for an immigration-reform push, according to our conversation with Rep. Salazar. Last year, Salazar introduced the Dignity Act, a 500-page bill that seeks to find middle ground between Republican and Democratic positions on the toxic issue. For the right, she proposes using technologies and other methods to seal the border tight. For the left, she offers a “Dignity Visa,” which effectively gives a migrant living in the U.S. for years the ability to stay, work and travel freely as long as they pay into that visa system. And if any American is worried more migrants will displace them at work, the bill features money for upskill training. Salazar, who NatSec Daily spoke to on the sidelines of Davos, thinks this plan will work because it offers — her words — a “pathway to dignity,” which she claims immigrants want, and not necessarily a path to citizenship. Those living in the shadows will like the visa idea, she said, “because they're going to come out of the shadows and they're gonna be able to go home for Christmas and bury their mom and not be in fear of deportation. And they're going to be able to earn a living and make minimum wage and feel that they live a dignified life.” She more than once cited her years as a Spanish-language journalist for why she knows how immigrants in the U.S. really feel. The question is if Salazar’s proposal will get any support from House leadership, which to date has shown no interest. And it’s also unclear if Democrats, who didn’t move on immigration while in control of the White House and both legislative chambers, will join Salazar. Rep. JOAQUIN CASTRO (D-Texas) said repeatedly at the World Economic Forum, and directly to NatSec Daily, that he wants to see some movement on immigration — any real progress, really. Might he join Salazar? He said he’d need to really understand where Salazar wants to go with it. She said she was open to discussing some changes with Democrats — the House is basically split, after all, and Salazar said she wants to listen to the voters who expect bipartisanship. Will we get a deal? Stay tuned. SENATORS IN KYIV: Sens. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) and SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.) were in Kyiv today, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports. While there, the lawmakers met with President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and vowed to press Congress to send additional resources as quickly as possible to fend off Russia. Asked if he was worried Republicans would be reluctant to send more support to Ukraine, Graham said he believes his party won’t “abandon” Ukraine since a successful Russian invasion “would turn the world order upside down."
| | | ANTI-TURKEY DEMONSTRATIONS: A Danish far-right activist has received permission to stage anti-Turkey demonstrations at a Turkish embassy in Stockholm, complicating Swedish efforts to secure NATO approval from Ankara, the Associated Press reports. RASMUS PALUDAN, an anti-Islam activist and Swedish citizen, plans to burn the Quran outside the embassy, which could fuel tensions between the two countries as Turkey has requested the extradition of individuals they deem as terrorists, including some who've been previously accused in being involved in plots to overthrow the government. The Swedish government says it respects the freedom of speech of the protesters but didn’t comment on how the demonstrations could affect its bid to join NATO. Turkey and Hungary are the only members of the transatlantic alliance who’ve yet to approve Sweden and Finland's bids.
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: MIA EHRENBERG has joined the Department of Homeland Security as a press secretary, Daniel has learned. She most recently was communications director for former Rep. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY (D-N.Y.) and is also an alum of NANCY PELOSI’s office. — SARAH LADISLAW will join the National Security Council next week as a special assistant to the president and the senior director for climate and energy. She most recently served as a managing director leading the U.S. program at the Rocky Mountain Institute and previously served at CSIS, where she was the senior vice president and director for the energy security and climate change program, and at the Department of Energy. Ladislaw will replace STEPHANIE EPNER, whose next move remains unclear. — Air Vice-Marshal MICK SMEATH has left his post as defense attaché of the British Embassy. Smeath, famed for his love of rock music and an impressively large Lego collection, is heading to London to be head of the global defense network in the Defense Ministry. His successor Rear Admiral TIM WOODS, who was previously the British defense attaché in Kyiv, has already started.
| | | — MATTHEW KAMINSKI, POLITICO: America in Decline? World Thinks Again. — IULIIA MENDEL, The Washington Post: Ukrainians are bracing for the next Russian onslaught — JERAD HARPER and MICHAEL HUNZEKER, War On The Rocks: What Washington And Taipei Can Learn From Security Cooperation In Ukraine And The Baltic States
| | | — The Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: Understanding India’s Security Role in the Indo-Pacific — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Book launch: Rebuilding a prosperous postwar Ukraine — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 11 a.m.: The Kishida Visit and U.S.-Japan Defense Relations: Creating a More Stable Asia? — The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1 p.m.: A Conversation with Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas): China, Russia, and America’s Military Readiness Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who won’t stop sending Matt and Alex threatening emails urging us to discreetly cancel this newsletter. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who successfully deters increasing aggression from management.
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