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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Nahal Toosi, Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | | 
According to the Jan. 25 “sensitive but unclassified” cable, the embassy now has a “drastically reduced staff that now includes up to 106 U.S. personnel and 250 local staff working in Kyiv.” | Sean Gallup/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– The Biden administration intends to fully staff the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine by this summer, according to a State Department cable obtained by NatSec Daily. It’s a small part of a wide-ranging document, and the ground conditions will ultimately determine if the goal can be achieved. Still, simply stating it signals that the U.S. wants to show ongoing solidarity with Ukraine despite Russia’s continued onslaught. The embassy was closed for roughly three months before resuming operations in May. According to the Jan. 25 “sensitive but unclassified” cable, the embassy now has a “drastically reduced staff that now includes up to 106 U.S. personnel and 250 local staff working in Kyiv.” But more than half the U.S. “direct hires” — a term that typically doesn’t cover contractors — are dedicated to security, “leaving a small core group to advance diplomacy, manage foreign assistance programs, and oversee operations.” Additional embassy staffers are in Poland or working remotely elsewhere beyond Kyiv. “One of our top priorities is to ensure we maintain the flexibility to increase our footprint in Kyiv or downgrade our posture as conditions dictate,” the cable says. The internal document was signed by the U.S. ambassador in Kyiv, BRIDGET BRINK, and sent to the Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s office, among others. It did not list the pre-war embassy staffing numbers. The State Department generally does not release such figures. A spokesperson for the department, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive diplomatic issues involved, said in a statement that Blinken “has championed the effort to have our team safely return to Kyiv at the earliest possible date. We do not comment on our internal staffing posture, but we continue to work toward strengthening our diplomatic presence in Kyiv to reinforce our strong partnership with Ukraine in its time of need.” WILLIAM TAYLOR, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told NatSec Daily that the plan indicates the administration has “concluded that the need for more staff justifies the risks of operating in a war zone.” After all, he noted: “More assistance, military and civilian, is coming in and must be coordinated. More senior officials visit. And more. This all requires embassy staff.” He pointed out, however, “more staff requires more security.” There are three more items from the cable worth noting. The cable describes Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY as prioritizing anti-corruption efforts, but it stresses that oversight of U.S. aid remains a top embassy priority. “We are transparent with the [government of Ukraine] that a scandal or misstep with U.S. assistance could jeopardize future aid,” the cable states. On security assistance, the cable states that “air defense equipment remains Ukraine’s top current need, followed by additional artillery, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks.” As of the date of the cable, “we have no evidence of a purposeful or illicit diversion of military equipment.” Of course, the U.S. has said it will provide M1 Abrams tanks in coordination with Germany, authorizing the transfer of Leopard II tanks to Ukraine. And the U.S. Agency for International Development’s partners have helped launch two civil society coalitions, composed of dozens of organizations, that already have documented more than 20,000 alleged war crimes and human rights abuses by Russia.
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | ZELENSKYY PUSHES FOR JETS IN U.K.: It looks like Zelenskyy’s surprise visit to the U.K. has paid off. In an address to British lawmakers, the Ukrainian leader stressed the need for Western fighter jets to push back Russian forces. Now, British Defense Secretary BEN WALLACE is “actively looking at whether we send jets” to Ukraine, our own ESTHER WEBBER, DAN BLOOM and CLEA CAULCUTT report. Other allies haven’t been so open to the idea. When asked in late January about sending jets, President JOE BIDEN didn’t mince words: “No.” German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ has also doubled down on his refusal to send them, telling reporters that the “question of combat aircraft does not arise at all.” But those leaders could change their minds, as the tank talks last month showed us. "This is an evolving process, and we will continue to make judgments about what we think Ukraine needs and what it can be most effective," Blinken told reporters on Wednesday, referring to fighter jet talks. BALLOON PART OF CHINA’S SPYING PROGRAM: The Chinese spy balloon shot down last week and several others that crossed into the U.S. were part of a broader surveillance effort by Beijing, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER said Wednesday. The surveillance balloon program has been operating “for several years,” Ryder told reporters, including our own CONNOR O’BRIEN, at the Pentagon. They’ve been spotted over at least five continents, he said, including Latin America, South America, Southeast Asia, East Asia and Europe. In testimony before the House Intelligence Committee Wednesday, former CIA director DAVID PETRAEUS raised concerns about the procedures — or lack thereof — that the Chinese government used to authorize sending the balloon over the continental U.S. last week. “Was there a process, did someone at the very top really give thumbs up to do this?” he said when asked by Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) about his thoughts on the balloon incident. If it was approved by top officials, “that should give us very great pause,” Petraeus said. “But so should the alternative, that there is no process,” Petreus said. That would reflect “a lack of appreciation for the kinds of actions that could result in something quite serious.” When asked whether he thinks Chinese President XI JINPING knew about the balloon’s trajectory, Blinken told reporters that Beijing is responsible for the "irresponsible action, a violation of our sovereignty and territorial integrity and international law." SUCCESSION, BUT MAKE IT NORTH KOREA: North Korean leader KIM JONG UN provided the greatest clue yet that he’s grooming his daughter to be the country’s next ruler. Photos released Wednesday by state-run media showed the middle-school-aged girl, whose name is believed to be KIM JU AE, sitting between her parents and in front of senior military leaders. The story in the Rodong Sinmun referred to her as Kim’s “respected daughter” — the first time that adjective was used. Previously, it was “beloved daughter.” “Given these developments, there is no longer a question about whether Kim Ju Ae has been chosen as Kim Jong Un’s successor,” CHEONG SEONG-CHANG, a North Korea leadership expert at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, told the Washington Post’s MIN JOO KIM. North Korea is a patriarchal, male-dominated society, and it will likely take time to convince the public that a female can take over the nation and its prized nuclear arsenal. It helps that Kim’s sister, KIM YO JONG, was years ago given a major profile and leadership position. The yearslong patriarchy in North Korea may be one reason why Kim is putting his daughter into the spotlight early, though the ruler, too, was introduced to fellow North Koreans early in his life. DEATH TOLL RISES: More than 11,000 people have died in the aftermath of the earthquakes that devastated Turkey and Syria two days ago, as freezing temperatures continue to complicate relief efforts. In a visit to affected areas, Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN told residents that the country is “face to face with a great disaster.” He also said that rescue efforts have started to become slightly easier since the quakes hit, as tens of thousands of rescuers from around the world descended into the region, The Wall Street Journal’s JARED MALSIN, RORY JONES and THOMAS GROVE report. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | BIDEN’S SHORT NATSEC SECTION: If you took a quick bathroom break, you might have missed Biden’s national security section during his State of the Union address. He addressed the Chinese spy balloon without even referencing it directly: “As we made clear last week, if China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country, and we did.” And the Ukraine section was a reiteration of points Biden had made before, namely that the U.S. will support Kyiv “as long as it takes.” The section that might preview the messaging during a likely Biden reelection run was his explanation for why the U.S. should help Ukraine at all. “Such a defense matters to us because it keeps the peace and prevents open season for would-be aggressors to threaten our security and prosperity,” he said, adding that the U.S. united NATO and stood against Russia. That rhetoric will put the president in stark contrast with challengers like DONALD TRUMP, who has consistently questioned America’s continued economic and military commitment to Ukraine.
| | | CISA’S RANSOMWARE FIX: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency released a script Tuesday night to help organizations impacted by cyberattacks that targeted VMware ESXi servers. Using the ransomware, hackers are able to exploit two-year-old vulnerability remotely, Cyberscoop’s CHRISTIAN VASQUEZ reports. It’s unclear who was responsible or how widespread the attacks were, but they caused European cybersecurity officials to warn users to quickly patch the OpenSLP bug. The script aims to help organizations recover files, but CISA warned that it isn’t responsible for any issues with the software: “While CISA works to ensure that scripts like this one are safe and effective, this script is delivered without warranty, either implicit or explicit,” CISA wrote.
| | | NEW VEHICLE COMPETITION: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report that the Army and Marine Corps intend to host an industry day in February for a new competition to replace the 1980s-era light armored vehicle, according to a notice. The purpose of the event is to make room for small businesses in an upcoming solicitation. The background: The Armored Reconnaissance Vehicle will be able to travel on land and in water and act as a battlefield “quarterback” gathering intelligence for commanders. The Marine Corps is planning for six variants: command, control and drones; precision fires; counter drone; 30mm autocannon and anti-tank missile; logistics; and recovery.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | CODEL TO TAIWAN?: The new House Foreign Affairs Committee chair is planning a trip to Asia soon — and it might include a stop in Taiwan. In a Tuesday interview with Bloomberg News’ JENNY LEONARD, Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) looked to bring a bipartisan delegation to the democratic island at some point in the spring. “I think it’s important to show China that we support Taiwan as a deterrence. I think it’s important to do that,” he said. NatSec Daily got in touch with an HFAC aide who said that a Taiwan leg has yet to be finalized and that the trip could happen after the spring. In other words, nothing is on the books yet. But, the staffer added that the CODEL would travel to Asia even if they can’t go to Taiwan — the goal is to meet with as many allies as possible. CODELS TO MUNICH: The Munich Security Conference will host the largest number of U.S. lawmakers in its history next week — but they’ll arrive in four separate groupings. According to Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), one Democratic CODEL will be led by Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER; a Republican one led by Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL; a bipartisan one calling themselves CODEL McCain after the late senator who is reversed at the conference; and a House group. The reason for four CODELs is that they’re all traveling to different places before and/or after the conference, even if they’ll all be in Munich for the event. But the differing arrival and departure points has turned the planning into “a shit show,” per Graham, who forms part of CODEL McCain. That said, the senator noted that the strong congressional representation reflects America’s bipartisan support for Ukraine’s cause. The conference will take place Feb. 17-19, and NatSec Daily will be there — come say hi!
| | | SILENT TREATMENT: Chinese Defense Minister WEI FENGHE turned down a request to speak to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN after the U.S. downed a Chinese spy balloon Saturday, our own OLIVIA OLANDER reported late Tuesday. The Defense Department made the request for a secure phone call between Austin and Fenghe just after an F-22 shot down the balloon as it floated off the coast of South Carolina. “Lines between our militaries are particularly important in moments like this. Unfortunately, the PRC has declined our request,” Pentagon spokesperson Ryder said in a statement. “Our commitment to open lines of communication will continue.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — PHILIPPE ETIENNE, France’s outgoing ambassador to the U.S., is headed to Columbia University as a visiting McGovern professor of international and public affairs this spring. “I look forward to this opportunity to work with this team of faculty & students dedicated to peace,” he tweeted about the move. — ALAN GREILSAMER is now deputy CIO and account manager for health in the office of information and technology at the Department of Veterans Affairs. He most recently was acting chief of staff in OIT and before that was director of media relations at the Veterans Health Administration. — DAN CALDWELL has now joined the Center for Renewing America. He previously was VP of foreign policy at Stand Together and senior adviser at Concerned Veterans for America. — Here are the new subcommittee chairs and ranking members in the Senate Armed Services Committee: Airland: Chair MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.), Ranking Member TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) Cybersecurity: Chair JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), Ranking Member MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) Emerging Threats and Capabilities: Chair KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.), Ranking Member JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) Personnel: Chair ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), Ranking Member RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) Readiness and Management Support: Chair MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii), Ranking Member DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska) Seapower: Chair TIM KAINE (D-Va.), Ranking Member KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.) Strategic Forces: Chair ANGUS KING (I-Me.), Ranking Member DEB FISCHER (R-Neb.)
| | | — Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service: International Security and Estonia 2023 — EVITA DUFFY-ALFONSO, The Federalist: This Viral TikTok Shows Why We’re Unprepared To Face China — RICH LOWRY, POLITICO: Republicans Can’t Succumb to Fantasy on Ukraine
| | | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies holds a virtual discussion, 8:45 a.m.: U.S. Extended Deterrence — The Center for a New American Security holds a virtual discussion, 9 a.m.: Governance and Security in Syria — The United States Institute of Peace, 11:30 a.m.: China and Strategic Stability in Space: Pathways to Peace in an Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition — The Wilson Center's Polar Institute, 1:30 p.m.: Deterring Russia at Sea in the High North — The Center for a New American Security, 1:45 p.m.: The United Kingdom's defense priorities and updates on the war in Ukraine — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 4:30 p.m.: Book discussion on "Mao's Army Goes to Sea: The Island Campaigns and the Founding of China's Navy" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who feels understaffed with just us. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who does the job of a whole team.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
