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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Kupol, a Ukrainian lieutenant colonel, told the Washington Post that his battalion is “unrecognizable” from the group he started out with. | Libkos/AP Photo | With help from Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The narrative that Ukraine’s military is headed toward certain victory against Russia has recently taken quite the hit. Two weeks ago, NPR’s FRANK LANGFITT reported that both Ukraine and Russia have torn through their best-trained and most-experienced troops. After a year of fighting, both forces now rely heavily on conscripts — a development that favors Russia since Moscow has more people it can call up than Kyiv. Then Monday evening, the Washington Post’s ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN, PAUL SONNE and KAREN DeYOUNG dug even deeper, reporting that pessimism and fear is sweeping through Ukrainian ranks. KUPOL, a lieutenant colonel, told the Post that his battalion is “unrecognizable” from the group he started out with. “Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.” “We don’t have the people or weapons,” a senior Ukrainian official also told them. “And you know the ratio: When you’re on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can’t afford to lose that many people.” CNA's MICHAEL KOFMAN, who recently traveled to Ukraine, said the reporting accurately depicts the situation on the ground. "I think some of the prevailing narratives on this war lack nuance, depicting something akin to 'Lord of the Rings' and saying it’s a documentary. Hence the reality can be sobering and jarring," he said, noting that there's been realism within Ukrainian ranks for a while now. He's also unsure these stories say much about Ukraine's ability to pull off an offensive, and remains cautiously optimistic. Ask other Ukrainian and U.S. officials and they’ll push back on the general narrative. Russia is on the backfoot and its offensive hasn’t produced results. Morale is higher than the media portrays, and the West’s military and economic backing will persist for — say it with us — “as long as it takes.” “The Russians may have a bigger population and more flesh to throw into the fight, but they are suffering casualties at a rate much higher than the Ukrainians are,” NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Tuesday in response to a question from NatSec Daily. The Ukrainians are “handling their level of manpower needs with a level of dexterity that is not fully appreciated,” noting that Kyiv can withdraw full battalions from the battlefield for training in places like the U.S. EUGENE CHAUSOVSKY, a senior director at the New Lines Institute think tank, said Ukraine’s military does have challenges mounting a counteroffensive against Russia and has suffered high casualty rates. “On the other hand, Ukraine also has an interest in playing up such challenges to secure greater military support from the U.S. and NATO, and perhaps even using it as an information tactic to throw off the Russians,” he continued. Russia, meanwhile, is starving for artillery shells, the Wall Street Journal’s MATTHEW LUXMOORE and EVAN GERSHKOVICH report. “Analysts estimate that Russia is firing some 10,000 shells a day, down from 20,000 to 30,000 last summer — but still well above Ukraine’s 3,000 or so,” they write.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | COLLISION OVER BLACK SEA: A Russian fighter jet collided with a U.S. drone flying in international airspace making a routine flight on Tuesday, our own Lawrence reports, sending the uncrewed aircraft crashing into the Black Sea, the U.S. military announced. Prior to the collision, two Su-27 warplanes dumped jet fuel on the drone and flew in front of it in a “reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner,” according to a statement from U.S. European Command. One of the Russian aircraft then struck the drone’s propeller, sending the Reaper crashing into the Black Sea, said Air Force Gen. JAMES HECKER, commander of U.S. Air Forces Europe. State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said the agency is “in the process of summoning” Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. The U.S. ambassador in Moscow has conveyed a strong message to the Russian Foreign Ministry, he continued. Marine Corps Commandant Gen. DAVID BERGER feared this kind of scenario: "This is my biggest worry, both there and in the Pacific, that an aggressive Russian or Chinese pilot or vessel captain gets too close, doesn’t realize where they are and causes a collision,” he said Tuesday at the National Press Club. POLAND TO GIVE MIGS?: Warsaw may provide Kyiv MiG-29 fighter jets within four to six weeks, Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI said today. Poland has previously said it would send the jets as part of a coalition of countries, so Morawiecki’s comments to reporters suggest allies may be close to an agreement on the planes, Reuters’ ALAN CHARLISH and ANNA WLODARCZAK-SEMCZUK report. Last week, Slovak Defence Minister JAROSLAV NAD said his Polish counterpart had told him Warsaw would send the jets if others joined the effort. In February, the Polish PM said that the country would provide the MiGs if the U.S. leads a wider coalition for transfers of aircraft to Ukraine, saying that “Poland can only be a part of a much larger coalition here, a coalition with the United States as a leader.” So far, the U.S. has no known plans to send the jets, or lead a coalition to do so. DON’T SWEAT IT: The Biden administration wants you to know everything’s chill, super cool and totally fine when it comes to Beijing brokering a Saudi-Iran détente, our own NAHAL TOOSI and PHELIM KINE reported Monday night. “Ultimately, this is a good thing,” a U.S. official said of the deal for Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations. “We want de-escalation in the Middle East and have been working in that direction. People are not too worked up about the fact that it was the Chinese who were able to pull this off.” Four other officials echoed a similar sentiment, minimizing the importance of the deal. It’s a one-off case, they argue, claiming it was in China’s economic interest to broker the deal. Administration officials also say the deal doesn’t translate into long-term alliances, and anything that helps calm the region is in America’s interest. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | TUCKER’S GOP QUESTIONNAIRE: Several top GOP candidates responded to TUCKER CARLSON’s questionnaire Monday night on a specific foreign policy issue: Is opposing Russia in Ukraine a vital American national strategic interest? "No, but it is for Europe," DONALD TRUMP said, adding that European allies "should be paying far more than we are, or equal." Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said other national security interests, such as securing the border and challenging China’s military might, are worth focusing on rather than “becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia.” A DeSantis ally, CHRISTINA PUSHAW, said “it’s his statement and he wrote it.” NSC spokesperson Kirby, who said he won’t respond directly to elected officials who may or may not be seeking other roles, asked a rhetorical question when asked about DeSantis’ response: “If we just lay back and let that happen” — allowing Russia to take Ukraine — “where does it stop?” South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM called Beijing the "primary external threat" to the U.S. rather than Moscow, saying the war in Ukraine "should be Europe’s fight, not ours." VIVEK RAMASWAMY stressed the importance of the U.S. becoming energy independent, saying that if Europe had relied more on U.S. oil and gas, Russia may not have attempted to take Ukraine. He also said it’s not vital to oppose Moscow. South Carolina Sen. TIM SCOTT took an opposite stance, emphasizing that it’s important to weaken Russia’s military. CHRIS CHRISTIE relayed a similar sentiment, adding that “this is a proxy war being waged by Russia’s ally China against the United States" and that "it would be naive to call this anything but Chinese aggression." MIKE PENCE took a hardline against the Kremlin: “There is no room for Putin apologists in the Republican Party. This is not America’s war, but if Putin is not stopped and the sovereign nation of Ukraine is not restored quickly, he will continue to move toward our NATO allies, and America would then be called upon to send our own." Texas Gov. GREG ABBOTT did not address the question, but answered others posed by Carlson. Five of the 12 — JOHN BOLTON, NIKKI HALEY, ASA HUTCHINSON, MIKE POMPEO and CHRIS SUNUNU — did not respond.
| | | GUESS WHO’S BACK: Russian intelligence hackers used a recent visit of the Polish ambassador to the United States to send malicious phishing emails to individuals involved with the visit, BlackBerry found in a report out Tuesday, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. Blackberry reported that Russian hacking group APT29 — the same hackers behind the 2020 SolarWinds espionage operation that compromised more than a dozen U.S. federal agencies and hundreds of businesses for at least a year — used phishing emails intended to target state organizations in the European Union. The hackers used lures including supposed links to the Polish ambassador’s schedule during the visit to the U.S. and to the LegisWrite program, which is used by EU organizations to revise and exchange documents. “The fact that LegisWrite is used in the malicious lure indicates that the threat actor behind this lure is specifically targeting state organizations within the European Union,” the report noted. The campaign has a direct link to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has involved widespread Russian hacking attempts to bring down Ukrainian critical infrastructure. The BlackBerry researchers warned that the campaign seemed to be aimed in particular at EU diplomatic systems and groups involved in providing aid to the Ukrainian government and assisting Ukrainians fleeing the conflict with Russia.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | TAIWAN’S NEW DRONES: A Taiwanese state-owned defense firm unveiled five new drones equipped with surveillance and combat capabilities, CNN's ERIC CHEUNG reports. One of the drones is capable of staying in the air continuously for up to 16 hours and can travel nearly 190 miles, while another can take off and land vertically, allowing it to monitor the island's coastline. Taipei has sought to grow its industrial base while partnering with the U.S. on weapons sales, including missile defense systems like the Patriot. The unveiling of the new drones comes as Chinese leader XI JINPING vowed to continue expanding the country's forces with the goal of turning the military into a "great wall of steel.”
| | | NO WAR: The legal authorization for the United States to wage war against Iraq must be repealed, Sens. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) wrote in a Fox News opinion piece. “By failing to repeal this outdated authorization, we leave it subject to potential presidential misuse,” the senators, who have led a renewed push to repeal the authorizations, wrote. “Congress has effectively surrendered its responsibilities to declare and oversee wars to whoever happens to be president.” The ability to wage a war against Iraq, now a strategic partner, serves no operational purpose, they argue. Democratic and Republican presidents have both used Authorizations for Use of Military Force in the past to approve military operations, but the legal authority that yields power to the president is outdated and oversteps Congress. The Senate is set to vote on their AUMF bill on Thursday.
| | | AUKUS RUCKUS: Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. are going “further down the wrong and dangerous path for their own geopolitical self-interest,” China’s foreign ministry said in response to the nuclear submarine deal struck by the alliance, the Associated Press reports. The three-phrase approach in the deal, known as AUKUS, ultimately ends with London and Canberra creating advanced versions of the highly sensitive vessel for their navies, as Alex and PAUL McLEARY reported yesterday. The historic 18-month partnership is intended to counter Chinese influence in the region and bolster Australia’s military. But to Chinese ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN, the deal isn’t so welcome. The partnership comes from the “typical Cold War mentality which will only motivate an arms race, damage the international nuclear nonproliferation regime, and harm regional stability and peace,” he told reporters on Tuesday.
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ANDREI MUNTEAN has joined the global public strategy firm Valcour, which is expanding to Europe, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was a senior adviser to the OSCE and is a former aide to the late Sen. ARLEN SPECTER (R-Pa.). — ERIN SIMPSON has been named the executive director of the new Joint Production Acceleration Cell within OSD A&S. She was previously a senior adviser on industrial-base policy. — Former Rep. JOHN KATKO (R-N.Y.) is joining cybersecurity ratings company SecurityScorecard as an adviser. — REX BOOTH has been promoted to be chief information security officer at SailPoint.
| | | — MARK ANTONIO WRIGHT, National Review: Questions for Ron DeSantis on Russia and Ukraine — DARA LIND, The New York Times: We Should Give Up the Fantasy of Solving the Border Crisis — NATHALIE TOCCI, Foreign Policy: Europe’s New Frontier
| | | — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.:International Arms Trade in a Time of Global Upheaval — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Nominations of RONALD KEOHANE and NIKOLAS GUERTIN — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: The Future of U.S.-Brazil Relations — Senate Armed Services Committee, 3 p.m.: Military and Civilian Personnel Programs in the Department of Defense in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2024 and the Future Years Defense Program — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: Nominations of KAREN SASAHARA, ELIZABETH ROOD, and MARTINA ANNA TKADLEC STRONG — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 4 p.m.: Is Congress Captured by the Arms Industry? Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who knows we’re much worse at this job than it looks. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who quickly makes people realize how excellent he is.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
