|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | |  Top diplomats for Saudi Arabia and Iran were in Beijing on Thursday to finalize a deal that would reopen embassies, resume direct flights between their two nations and restart security and trade agreements. | Ding Lin/Xinhua via AP Photo | With help from Lara Seligman, Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The sweat dripping down the collective forehead of Washington, D.C. isn’t because China brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It’s just unseasonably hot today. Top diplomats for Saudi Arabia and Iran were in Beijing on Thursday to finalize a deal that would reopen embassies, resume direct flights between their two nations and restart security and trade agreements. It’s the latest sign that Beijing is not content with being solely a regional behemoth, but rather a major global power. “Not everything between the U.S. and China has to be a zero-sum game,” said Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Middle East panel. Plus, he said, better relations between Riyadh and Tehran means that there will be less conflict in the region, which would lower the chance of the United States getting dragged into a fight in the Middle East. Others provided reasons stretching from the grand strategic to the tactical. A more-involved China means the United States can focus on its national security priorities, namely defending Ukraine against Russia and deterring China from invading Taiwan. And friendlier ties between Riyadh and Tehran also mean that the Saudi-led coalition’s eight-year war on Yemen could soon come to an end, a key goal for the Biden administration. “The United States should see China's mediation of a Saudi-Iran agreement as a win-win for American interests,” said MARTIN INDYK, who served as the special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations from 2013 to 2014. And if the deal falls apart, the blame falls on China, he said. Perceptions that China’s ability to broker the agreement between Riyadh and Tehran constitute a mortal blow to U.S. standing in the region are “emotional and overblown,” and overlook the long term regional need for U.S. security guarantees that Beijing can’t provide, said DAVID SATTERFIELD, former assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. “It’s not the end of the world…In the event that Iran does develop a nuclear weapon and with it threatens the security of the Gulf, we're the only state that can respond to that,” Satterfield said. This is generally the argument Biden administration officials make in public and private, despite President JOE BIDEN’s push for competition with China in the military, economic and technological arenas. A Democratic Senate aide, who like others was granted anonymity to detail sensitive discussions and diplomacy, said lawmakers express mixed feelings when briefed by senior figures on the deal. “It’s good in that it reduces the threat of nuclear escalation and conflict in the region,” the staffer has heard lawmakers say, but others argue “it gives China too much influence and positions them in the Middle East, where they have never really been engaged, as a political power.” The good-or-bad arguments don’t fall neatly on party lines, the aide noted. But there’s no real evidence that China’s role in the Saudi-Iran deal means the United States has somehow removed itself from the Middle East. Gen. MICHAEL “ERIK” KURILLA, the head of U.S. Central Command, called Saudi Arabia’s chief of defense Thursday to discuss security cooperation and the military partnership. Col. JOE BUCCINO, a CENTCOM spokesperson, said the conversation wasn’t tied to diplomacy in China. “Frankly we didn't even think of that," Buccino said. Read Alex’s full story.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | AFGHAN AFTER-ACTION REPORT: The Biden administration is set to send the Pentagon and State Department’s long-awaited after-action reports on the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan to Congress on Thursday, White House national security spokesperson JOHN KIRBY announced. In a 12-page unclassified summary sent to reporters minutes before the announcement, the administration defended Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. military forces from Afghanistan and the hurried evacuation from Kabul airport, our own LARA SELIGMAN writes in. The document placed the blame squarely on the Trump administration for creating the conditions that led to the rapid Taliban takeover and fall of the Afghan government, saying Biden was “severely constrained” by the decisions of his predecessor. The experience in Afghanistan informed the administration’s decision to set up a small group of experts to look at "worst-case scenario planning on Ukraine," including simulation exercises, in case a similar evacuation became necessary, Kirby said. ISRAEL ATTACKED: Militants fired dozens of rockets at Israel from southern Lebanon, forcing people in the area into bomb shelters and wounding at least one person, the Associated Press’ ISABEL DEBRE and SAM McNEIL report. Thirty-four rockets were fired in total, with 25 intercepted by the Iron Dome air-defense system, the Israel Defense Forces said. Five landed inside Israel. In response, Israeli tanks shelled two southern Lebanese towns. Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed Shiite militant group in southern Lebanon, denied that it shot the missiles. No other faction in the area has claimed responsibility for the attacks, which occurred during the Jewish Passover holiday and the Muslim Ramadan holiday. But Israel’s Foreign Ministry tweeted out a picture of Hamas’ leader in southern Lebanon days ago. “Hamas is behind the attack today!” the post reads. The Foreign Ministry also tweeted videos of the rockets flying overhead. The barrage follows a raid by Israeli forces inside al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem on Wednesday, which preceded an exchange of rocket fire between Gaza and Israel later in the day. Observers worry that tensions will escalate, as Thursday’s rocket launches were the largest seen since the 2006 Israel-Gaza war. NATO PUSHBACK: The United States, Germany and Hungary are rebuffing the efforts by some European countries to provide Ukraine a path to NATO membership, the Financial Times’ HENRY FOY and FELICIA SCHWARTZ report. Poland and the Baltic states have sought to grant Kyiv a “road map” to join the alliance and provide the embattled country with statements of support. But not all allies agree with such a move, as was made clear at a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels this week, four officials involved in the talks told the FT. Ukraine formally applied for membership last year, and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has said he will only attend a leaders’ summit in Vilnius in July if the alliance can grant tangible steps toward joining NATO. “We’ve got several weeks of hard negotiations ahead to try and close those gaps and craft some kind of political outcome,” a Western official told the FT. “But yes, there are some significant differences on that at the moment.” COURT TO TAKE UP GERSHKOVICH APPEAL: A Russian court will review an appeal for jailed Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH on Thursday after he was detained and dubiously accused of spying, the Journal’s ANN SIMMONS reports. CRIMEA TALKS?: Ukraine is open to talking with Russia about Crimea if its counteroffensive succeeds, allowing troops to reach the border of the Russian-occupied peninsula, the Financial Times’ CHRISTOPHER MILLER andSchwartzreported Wednesday. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has so far ruled out peace talks over Crimea unless all Russian troops leave the area. The remarks by ANDRIY SYBIHA, deputy head of the president’s office, to the FT are the clearest statement of Ukraine’s interest in negotiations since peace talks halted last April. If the long-awaited counteroffensive succeeds, “we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue,” Sybiha said. It’s likely to be a welcome sentiment for Western officials, who have worried that the war could escalate if Ukraine attempts to take back Crimea. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @reporterjoe.
| | | |   | | | | | TRUMP CAMPAIGN RESPONDS TO AFGHANISTAN REVIEW: Former President DONALD TRUMP's 2024 campaign released a statement criticizing the Biden administration's Afghanistan after-action review. “Biden and his administration are trying to gaslight the American people for their disastrous withdrawal in Afghanistan that directly led to American deaths and emboldened the terrorists,” Trump’s spokesperson STEVEN CHEUNG told the Daily Caller's DIANA GLEBOVA. "Biden’s complete erosion of American deterrence can be directly assigned blame for Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, Kim’s decision to restart missile launches, and Xi’s pending decision to invade Taiwan and Chinese spy balloons surveilling American. And those are only the nation-state threats we’re aware of. The world has become a more dangerous place under Joe Biden." NSC spokesperson Kirby insisted that Biden's team inherited a bad hand from Trump, prompting the campaign to clap back. If Trump and Biden are the two nominees in 2024, expect Afghanistan to move center stage in the foreign policy debate.
| | NO TIKTOK FOR NATO: You won’t find TikTok installed on any platforms run by the trans-Atlantic defense alliance NATO, a key cybersecurity official told our own LAURENS CERULUS in China Watcher. “I can say with confidence you will not see TikTok on a NATO-owned platform,” said JAMES APPATHURAI, NATO’s assistant deputy secretary general for emerging security challenges. “The reasons are very clear. China has a policy of civil-military fusion, meaning everything civilian can be used for military purposes.” Appathurai’s comments are the first on-the-record confirmation of the ban, which CNN reported last week citing officials familiar with the matter.
| | | | NEW PRODUCT UPDATE - POLITICO's China Watcher now hits inboxes twice weekly (Tuesday & Thursday). POLITICO's EU-China Correspondent Stuart Lau will be writing this expanded newsletter together with our colleague Phelim Kine from across the Atlantic in Washington. We’re living in a world where geopolitics are shaped and reshaped in Brussels, Washington, and Beijing — China Watcher will attempt to decode these global relationships to give our readers a full picture of the world’s diplomatic relations with China. Sign up to China Watcher | | | | | | | | DON’T BLOCK AID: Nigeria values U.S. security aid to fight terrorism and wants Washington’s continued support despite lamakers’ concerns about the country’s human rights record. In February, Reps. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) and CHRIS SMITH (R-N.J.) tried to halt $1 billion arms sale including 12 AH-1Z attack helicopters approved last year in response to a mass abortion program that ended the pregnancies of women captured by Boko Haram militants, and the targeted killings of children in Nigeria’s war against insurgents. “It would be so sad if Congress succeeded in blocking the attack helicopters because Nigeria is facing some substantial challenges in terms of fighting terrorism, and those attack helicopters have come in very useful in the fight against terrorism,” LAI MOHAMMED, Nigeria’s minister of information and culture told NatSec Daily. Though the deal was the largest package ever approved for Nigeria, members of Congress have questioned their effectiveness as weapons are often captured by insurgents, they argue.
| | CHINA’S LAWMAKER VISIT BACKLASH: Beijing blasted Washington for allowing Taiwan’s President TSAI ING-WEN to meet with lawmakers in California on Wednesday, accusing America of using Taiwan as a “chess piece” and an “ATM for American arms sellers.” Various Chinese ministries and state media coordinated denunciations of the trip Thursday morning, lambasting the U.S. for ignoring warnings, The Washington Post’s CHRISTIAN SHEPHERD and VIC CHIANG report. Tsai’s meetings with a bipartisan group of lawmakers, including House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY, was widely expected to draw Beijing’s ire as the U.S. continues to double down on its support for the island nation amid China’s potential invasion. During a press conference, McCarthy called for continued arms sales to the island, further economic cooperation and the promotion of “our shared values on the world stage,” our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reported. He reiterated multiple times the desire to avoid any sort of conflict between China and Taiwan. “I believe our bond is stronger now than at any time or point in my lifetime,” McCarthy said at another press conference alongside Tsai.
| | | | GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat. | | | | | | | | WRAY’S CHINA WORRIES: FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY took aim at China’s growing global influence, warning a crowd at Texas A&M on Wednesday that Beijing will “stop at nothing” to become the world’s foremost power. “The current Chinese regime will stop at nothing to steal what they can’t create and to silence the messages they don’t want to hear — all in an effort to surpass us as a global superpower and to shape a world order more friendly to their decidedly authoritarian vision,” Wray said. In the future, hostile countries will likely become more aggressive in their attacks and attempts to interfere with the United States, he said. What makes China so dangerous, Wray added, is the government’s efforts to steal American technology and secrets while building the world’s largest cyber hacking program. As threats from China, Iran, Russia and other adversaries continue, the FBI needs to ensure that it has the tools and legal authority to counter attacks, the director said. He then made the case for reauthorizing the controversial Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a surveillance program that allows the FBI to track foreign targets outside the U.S.
| | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: LAWRENCE MONTREUIL has been named the director of government and external affairs at the CATO Institute, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was legislative director at the American Legion. — AMANDA ROGERS THORPE is now a national security adviser for Sen. PETER WELCH (D-Vt.). She previously was House Select Committee on Intelligence defense subcommittee staff director and is a DUTCH RUPPERSBERGER alum. — TORI BATEMAN is starting a new position as outreach/grasstops coordinator at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. She was previously policy advocacy coordinator at the American Friends Service Committee.
| | — JONATHAN MARTIN, POLITICO: JERRY BROWN Is Angry: Why Is America Barreling Into a Cold War With China? — ROBERT FARLEY, 1945: Russia Could Lose Billions In Arms Sales To China. Here’s Why — ANNA HUSARSKA, The Washington Post: The illegal deportation of Ukrainian children has to be stopped
| | — The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 11 a.m.: Inheriting the Bomb: Ukraine’s Nuclear Disarmament and Why It Matters — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: U.S. military readiness and innovation in a new international and technological era — Mothers for Peace, 11:30 a.m.: Nuclear Winter: The Environmental Consequences of a Nuclear Exchange Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who doesn’t believe in win-wins. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is a natural-born winner.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
