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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Ari Hawkins | |  The path to Ukraine getting the fourth-generation jets will likely track the way tanks made it onto the battlefield: President Joe Biden will need to send F-16s to Ukraine directly before the Europeans follow suit. | USAF, via Getty Images | With help from Lara Seligman, Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt It seems likelier than ever that, eventually, F-16 fighter jets will be flying above Ukrainian skies helmed by Ukrainian pilots. To ensure that’s the case, Ukraine will have to overcome a lot of obstacles — mostly technical — to get the most of its incoming prized possessions. Experts (and, quietly, some U.S. officials) point out two in particular. The first is keeping planes functioning in good order. The roughly 60 F-16s that are most readily available to send to Ukraine use electronics that are hard to come by. They also require skilled maintainers with access to tons of parts, many of which aren’t in large supply, to keep an aircraft operational. Kyiv will need to ensure it has the maintenance infrastructure — and the funds to sustain it — to make the best use of the fighter jets, per BRYNN TANNEHILL, a former U.S. naval aviator. “For the U.S. Air Force, an F-16 requires about 16 man-hours of maintenance for every one hour flying, and that once trained, aircraft maintenance personnel rely on specialize [sic] equipment and a massive logistical enterprise to keep them supplied with materiel,” reads a March Congressional Research Service report. It’s possible, however, that NATO countries bordering Ukraine, like Poland and Romania, could help Ukraine with this problem. The second is avoiding Russia’s surface-to-air missiles. JUSTIN BRONK, a senior research fellow at the Britain-based Royal United Services Institute, argues Ukrainian pilots “would have to fly at very low altitudes within several tens of kilometers of the frontlines. This would dramatically reduce effective missile range and limit strike options.” In Bronk’s estimation, Ukrainian-helmed F-16s armed with stand-off weapons “would be adding to existing strike options like HIMARS and drawing from limited stockpiles,” even if the warplanes allow for hitting Russian targets from a safer distance. That doesn’t account for Russia’s own fighters in the sky, which have proven “particularly lethal” against Ukraine’s MiG-29s and Su-27s, Tannehill noted in a Twitter thread. This is due in large part to Russia having bigger and better radar to track Ukrainian aircraft and longer-range missiles to take them down. The radar system on the F-16s that the Europeans could most easily part with, the APG-66, isn’t more advanced than what the Russians are using now. Bronk argues providing Ukraine with long-range AIM-120 air-to-air missiles could help Kyiv weather this challenge. Before all this, though, there’s the politics of it all. As our friends at Morning Defense reported this morning (for Pros!), some European countries aren’t fully detailing their involvement in the F-16 handover plan. A Norwegian military spokesperson told our own PAUL McLEARY that the country is still evaluating its options as far as training and supplying Ukraine, while the Belgians, Dutch and Danes all appear to be on board with the training mission but won’t comment on sending jets. The path to Ukraine getting the fourth-generation jets will likely track the way tanks made it onto the battlefield: President JOE BIDEN will need to send F-16s to Ukraine directly before the Europeans follow suit. An important caveat: One of the big worries was that it would take Ukrainian pilots a long time to train on the F-16s. But a recent U.S. Air Force assessment showed they only need about four months to get up to speed.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | AIR FORCE FUMBLE: Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL said the service is taking a hard look at its practices and policies when it comes to safeguarding classified material after Air National Guard member JACK TEIXEIRA allegedly leaked top military secrets, our own LARA SELIGMAN writes in. The Air Force may have leaned too far forward in sharing classified information with other parts of the government at the expense of protecting that material, he told reporters Monday morning. “It’s a longstanding tenet that you don’t get to look at something classified unless there is a legitimate reason to look at it,” Kendall said. “I don’t think our enforcing mechanisms may have been strong enough on that.” After federal law enforcement arrested Teixeira last month, Kendall temporarily suspended his unit, the 102nd Intelligence Wing, and ordered leaders to conduct “stand down” within the next 30 days to reassess their security procedures. UKRAINE ENCIRCLING BAKHMUT: Ukrainian troops are encircling Bakhmut even as Russia’s control of the devastated city firms up. Ukraine only has control of a few slivers of the eastern city, but the goal now is a “tactical encirclement,” the Washington Post’s ADAM TAYLOR and ANASTACIA GALOUCHKA report. It’s a far cry from Russian claims that the city is now under Moscow’s thumb –– which Kyiv has firmly rejected. Gen. SERHIY CHEREVATIY, the spokesperson for the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said that Ukraine is still making moves to the city’s south and north, capturing between 250 and 400 meters of territory in an overnight operation that ended Monday. “We are moving forward carefully. We don’t have an advantage in manpower,” he said, according to the Wall Street Journal’s MATTHEW LUXMOORE and GEORGI KANTCHEV. PAPUA’S GOT A BRAND NEW BAG: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN signed a new security pact with Papua New Guinea leaders on Monday to shore up ties and counter increased Chinese influence in the region. The pact, which had been announced ahead of the visit, aims to provide a framework to improve security cooperation, enhance the country’s defense force and increase stability in the region, according to the State Department. Blinken made the trip in lieu of Biden, who canceled his highly-anticipated appearance to handle debt ceiling negotiations back home. KYIV’S G-7 WIN: As the war in Ukraine drags on, leaders at the G-7 summit in Japan this weekend bolstered their support for Kyiv, vowing to further provide the nation with weapons and support, the New York Times’ PETER BAKER, MOTOKO RICH and DAVID SANGER reported Sunday. “Together with the entire G-7, we have Ukraine’s back, and I promise we’re not going anywhere,” Biden told Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY as he unveiled a new $375 million package of artillery, ammunition and other arms for Kyiv. Biden defended his reluctance about sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine despite the country’s constant calls, but he added that Washington’s recent authorization of training on the jets is intended to deter further Russian aggression down the line. Such military aid wouldn’t have helped Kyiv’s troops in current battles, like the one in Bakhmut, Biden said. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe and @_AriHawkins.
| | TRUMP WARNED AGAINST KEEPING DOCS: Former President DONALD TRUMP was warned that he couldn’t hold onto classified documents following a subpoena for them last year, the Guardian’s HUGO LOWELL reports. Trump’s lawyer, EVAN CORCORAN, passed along that warning following the subpoena, according to notes he kept at the time. Those notes have been provided to the federal probe led by special counsel Jack Smith. After finding about 40 classified documents in a storage room in Mar-a-Lago, Corcoran told the Justice Department that there were no more to be found. When the FBI came with a warrant for the documents, they discovered around 100 more classified materials. Now federal investigators are looking into why Trump didn’t comply with the subpoena, including the possibility that he had the boxes of classified materials removed from the storage room so that he could keep them.
| | MEDDLING WITH META: Tech giant Meta was hit with a record $1.3 billion fine after its top regulator in the European Union accused it of illegally storing European users’ data in a way that makes it possible for American spy agencies to access it, our own CLOTHILDE GOUJARD and MARK SCOTT report. Meta's use of a legal instrument, known as standard contractual clauses, to move data to the U.S. "did not address the risks to the fundamental rights and freedoms" of Facebook's European users raised by a landmark ruling from the E.U.'s top court, according to a Monday statement from the Irish Data Protection Commission. Meta and other international companies kept relying on the legal instrument as European and U.S. officials struggled to put together a new data flows arrangement and the U.S. tech giant lacked other legal mechanisms to transfer its personal data. The EU and U.S. are finalizing a new data flow deal that could come as early as July and as late as October. SPYWARE IN MEXICO: Mexico’s Under Secretary for Human Rights ALEJANDRO ENCINAS was spied upon by Pegasus, a spyware made by the Israeli firm NSO, per NATALIE KITROEFF and RONEN BERGMAN from the Times. The military is the only entity in Mexico that has access to Pegasus, and the same software was used to target journalists and activists during the country’s last presidential administration. Pegasus can collect information including messages, geolocation and can secretly turn on a target’s camera and microphone. EU lawmakers voted to press member states to regulate the use of the spyware earlier this month. Encinas has been highly critical of his country’s armed forces, and accused his country’s military of involvement in the disappearance of 43 students in 2014. Hackers previously gained unfettered access into his phone in 2021, while leading a probe into the abductions. Mexico has earned a notorious reputation for strict state surveillance, but if revelations from The Times’ investigation are correct, this case would be the first time a senior administration member was surveilled by the company.
| | | | GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | PRICE GOUGING THE PENTAGON: American military suppliers are overcharging the Pentagon, according to former military officials and defense experts who spoke to CBS’ 60 minutes. “They are companies that have to survive, make profit. The Department of Defense, on the other hand, wants the best weapon systems,” Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. CHRIS BOGDAN told CBS, adding that those goals “are opposite ends of the spectrum." "They need to be held accountable," SHAY ASSAD, a former senior contract negotiator for the Defense Department also told the show. The comments come after Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS announced in March that the 2024 defense budget would carry a $842B price tag, the largest ever.
| | HOW THE HOLD PLAYS OUT: There’s no clear end in sight to Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) hold on roughly 200 senior civilian and uniformed Pentagon leaders, but our own JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN mapped out a few ways it could go:
- Tuberville could seek an amendment vote on the Pentagon travel policy via the National Defense Authorization Act. It’s not a great deal for either side, but it’s probably the most likely one.
- Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER could get around Tuberville’s hold by filing cloture and cutting off debate on each nominee, which requires an extra procedural vote and more floor time.
- Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL could privately convince Tuberville to quit or compromise. It’s a scenario Dems pressed for even before McConnell said he doesn’t support Tuberville’s actions. is another question","_id":"00000188-44df-d191-afc8-4edf07670000","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">Whether the Alabama Republican would listen is another question.
- Facing a personnel crisis in the military’s highest rungs if the blockade continues, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN could give in and rescind the policies he issued this year, which cover travel costs and permit leave for troops who must travel to obtain abortions and other reproductive health procedures.
The hold is happening as Tuberville’s state is fighting to become the permanent home to the new U.S. Space Command amid speculation that reproductive rights could play a role in that major basing decision. The two issues aren’t directly related, but it’s worth keeping an eye on whether they’ll impact each other. | | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | | | | OPPOSITION OPPOSED: SINAN OĞAN, the ultranationalist third-place contender in the Turkish presidential elections, endorsed President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN on Monday,CNN’s GUL TUYSUZ reports. “The National Alliance has failed to convince us,” Oğan said, referring to the party led by the pro-Western opposition candidate KEMAL KILIÇDAROĞLU, per CNN. Oğan, who centered his campaign on vowing to expel Syrian refugees, exceeded expectations during last week’s first round race, gaining more than five percent of the vote. Erdoğan leads Kiliçdaroğlu ahead of Sunday, after neither candidate was able to clinch the 50 percent of votes required to declare outright victory last week. Oğan’s endorsement is set to further tip the race in the president’s favor. The endorsement also comes after Kiliçdaroğlu sharpened his rhetoric against Syrian migrants in a bid to peel away votes from his opponent, underscoring rising anti-refugee sentiment across the electorate.
| | — ALI AKBAR AHMADIAN has been tapped to replace ALI SHAMKHANI as secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. He previously led the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s strategic center — JASON ISRAEL has joined the National Security Council as special assistant to the president and senior director for defense. He was most recently a transatlantic leadership fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and is an Obama NSC and DoD alum. He will work closely with NSC coordinator for defense policy and arms control CARA ABERCROMBIE.
| | — NORMAN EISEN, ALINA INAYEH, JACOB KIRKEGAARD, THOMAS KLEINE-BROCKHOFF, JOSH RUDOLPH and BRUCE STOKES, German Marshall Fund of the United States: Toward a Marshall Plan for Ukraine — LUKE MOGELSON, The New Yorker: Two weeks at the front in Ukraine — RAPHAEL COHEN, War On The Rocks: What Washington gets wrong about deterrence
| | | |   | | | |  | Tomorrow Today | | — Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: Cybersecurity creates new horizons for Abraham Accords — Peterson Institute for International Economics, 9 a.m.: A renewed look at Russia's wartime economy — Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: How Will Presidential Election Results Affect Turkey's Regional Outlook? — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m: 2023 Warsaw Week — Cyber Threat Alliance, 12 p.m.: CTA Fireside Chat - Metrics that Matter: Measuring and Communicating Progress in Cyber in 2023 — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: Examining the Fiscal Year 24 State and Foreign Operations Budget Request for Europe — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: A Security Sprint: Assessing the U.S. Homeland’s Vulnerabilities to Chinese Communist Party Aggression — Brookings Institution, 4 p.m.: 21st century soldiers of the sea: A conversation with General DAVID BERGER, 38th commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who never gives us the weapons we need to win our daily newsletter war. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who can learn to fly an F-16 in one day.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
