It seems like the counteroffensive has started

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Monday Jun 05,2023 08:02 pm

Jun 05, 2023

By Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman and Ari Hawkins

A Ukrainian soldier fires a mortar at Russian positions on the frontline.

A Ukrainian soldier fires a mortar at Russian positions on the frontline near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on May 28, 2023. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo

With help from Joe Gould

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Signs that Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive has begun have started to show.

U.S. military satellites — which can track artillery and missile launches — have picked up increased movement from Ukrainian positions and Russia’s Ministry of Defense said Ukraine launched a “large-scale” attack along five areas in Donetsk province’s southeast and that Moscow’s troops repelled it (a claim Ukraine denies). One DoD official also told NatSec Daily that the counteroffensive has officially started.

Some experts agree. "I think we’re seeing the opening stages," said MICHAEL KOFMAN, director of the Russia studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses and one of the top analysts of the war. He added, however, "this is not the main effort yet."

Importantly, Ukrainian officials deny that the maneuver is underway. “All the news of the ‘big start’ is Russian propaganda. They are trying to divert attention from their fiasco in Bakhmut,” said a Ukrainian defense official who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive military operation. “Follow only official news from Ukraine if you want to know the truth,” tweeted MYKHAILO PODOLYAK, an adviser to President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY.

Ukraine cares about its operational security. Kyiv released a video over the weekend of troops putting a finger to their lips, urging less speculation about the counteroffensive. "Plans Love Silence," read the tagline.

But on Saturday, Zelenskyy told the Wall Street Journal that his military was ready to go. “I don’t know how long it will take,” he said. “To be honest, it can go a variety of ways, completely different. But we are going to do it, and we are ready.”

The Biden administration, for its part, is keeping mum. Another DoD official said the Pentagon was seeing an “uptick” in Ukrainian military activity, but didn’t confirm that meant the counteroffensive was happening now. The National Security Council also declined multiple requests to comment, instead pointing us to Ukraine to comment on its own ops. But NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said from the White House podium that “the president is confident we did everything we could” to help Ukraine be successful.

So, is the counteroffensive happening or not? U.S. officials say it is, Ukrainians say it’s not. As of now, the balance of evidence appears to be on the American side.

The Inbox

DRONES FOR AGENTS: Ukraine is providing drones to agents and sympathizers in Russia to carry out attacks, CNN’s NATASHA BERTRAND, ZACHARY COHEN and KYLIE ATWOOD report.

“U.S. officials believe that Ukraine has developed sabotage cells inside Russia made up of a mix of pro-Ukrainian sympathizers and operatives well-trained in this kind of warfare. Ukraine is believed to have provided them with Ukrainian-made drones, and two U.S. officials told CNN there is no evidence that any of the drone strikes have been conducted using U.S.-provided drones,” they write.

It’s unclear who, precisely, is controlling the agents and assets, though U.S. officials believe elements of Ukraine’s intelligence community are the most likely culprit. In May, the Washington Post reported that Zelenskyy was plotting bold attacks inside Russia, citing leaked U.S. intelligence documents.

BUY BACK: Russia is apparently buying back military equipment it had previously sold Myanmar and India, Nikkei Asia’s YUKO SEKI and SHOTA FUJII report.

A review of customs clearance data shows “Russian repurchases of parts for tanks and missiles that had been exported to Myanmar and India,” they write. “Russia may be reimporting the components to improve older weapons destined for use in Ukraine, relying on help from countries with which it has long-standing military ties.”

For example, UralVagonZavod, a Russian tank manufacturer, imported roughly $24 million in military products from Myanmar in December 2022. The purchased products were made by UralVagonZavod.

The news comes as the West continues to restrict Russian imports of necessary components to arm its military, forcing Moscow to find new answers to its equipment problems.

‘AT SOME POINT’: President JOE BIDEN will “at some point” meet with Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told CNN on Sunday.

“We will, I hope, soon see American officials engaging at senior levels with their Chinese counterparts over the coming months to continue that work. And then, at some point, we will see President Biden and President Xi come back together again,” he told FAREED ZAKARIA on his Sunday show “GPS.”

“There is nothing inconsistent with, on the one hand, competing vigorously in important domains on economics and technology, and also ensuring that that competition does not veer into conflict or confrontation. That is the firm conviction of President Biden.”

The comment comes as China balks at any military-to-military sit downs while economic and diplomatic meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials continue.

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2024

RAMASWAMY: NATO EXPANSION LED TO INVASION: Republican 2024 presidential hopeful VIVEK RAMASWAMY tells NatSec Daily that NATO’s membership expansion is one reason why Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN invaded Ukraine.

“I know you’re not supposed to say that, but it’s factually true,” he said. “NATO expansion has been a disaster.” Ramaswamy cited the example of Russia invading Georgia shortly after the alliance in 2008 said the country would eventually become a member.

Ramaswamy spoke to POLITICO reporters in their offices Monday just one day after he told ABC News that the U.S. could end the fighting by making “some major concessions” to Russia. NatSec Daily pressed him after the meeting on what that would mean.

“Putin would end [up] with Crimea and most of the Donbas,” he told us. Furthermore, NATO should vow that Ukraine won’t join the alliance and the U.S. should restore “full economic relations” with Russia. “Those are big concessions,” he underscored.

“There’s the deal I would love for us to do: freeze the lines of control, Korean War style, armistice agreement,” he added.

NatSec Daily pointed out that the U.S. has nearly 30,000 troops on the peninsula to keep the war from restarting. “NATO can have oversight and visibility capabilities,” he responded, but “I do not believe we need actual troops on the ground in Ukraine.”

Ramaswamy believes a deal is required to stop Russia from moving closer to China — a stronger bond between them makes an invasion of Taiwan more likely, he said. In exchange for America’s approval for seizing Ukrainian territory, Russia would be required to cease joint military exercises with China, remove nuclear weapons from Kaliningrad and the ones on their way to Belarus, as well as end its military presence in the Western Hemisphere, specifically Cuba and Venezuela.

If the U.S. can make that deal, well then “we have now completely secured our objectives,” he said.

‘A WAR ABOUT FREEDOM’: NIKKI HALEY distanced herself from DONALD TRUMP and RON DeSANTIS by firmly backing America’s defense of Ukraine during a Sunday CNN town hall.

“This is bigger than Ukraine,” said the former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor. “This is a war about freedom and it’s one we have to win.”

She chastised DeSantis for initially calling the war a “territorial dispute” — a comment that ideologically aligned the current Florida governor with the former president.

Haley also targeted Trump for congratulating North Korean leader KIM JONG UN following his nation’s election to the World Health Organization executive board. “Congratulate our friends, don’t congratulate our enemies,” she said.

Furthermore, she promised to end technology exports to China and sanction Beijing over its supply of fentanyl to Mexican drug cartels: “There’s nothing that they dislike more than when we hit their wallet.”

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

Keystrokes

FICK ON THE MOVE: Across a five-day swing through Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia that starts today, the nation’s top cyber diplomat has one unifying goal in mind: boxing Chinese telecom giant Huawei out of America’s backyard.

Huawei has built a large market share in Latin America in part through aggressive, state-subsidized price-cutting, NATE FICK, the State Department’s ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy, told Weekly Cybersecurity during a Sunday interview.

But until recently, Fick said, the U.S. hasn’t done enough to make trusted suppliers competitive in foreign markets, where price often trumps politics.

“We need to get more creative and assertive in our financing,” Fick said. “We’ve been playing market competitive economics with these places, and the Chinese have been playing geopolitics.”

Fick also led a delegation last week to meet with Ukrainian counterparts on how to boost their cyber relationship. The meeting in Tallinn focused on the Biden administration’s discussions with Congress to approve $37 million in cyber assistance, which would boost total cyber aid to $82 million since February 2022, per a State Department readout.

The Complex

ROBOT MARINES: The Marine Corps released the latest update to its Force Design 2030 plan Monday, propelling Commandant Gen. DAVID BERGER’s vision of making the Corps lighter, faster and more tech-savvy.

PAUL McLEARY writes for our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) that the update says that all the big equipment retirements have already happened, and now the Corps will move on to integrating its new weapons and operational plans with the other services. It would also harden its forward bases in the Pacific against missile and electronic warfare attacks.

Speaking with reporters on a conference call Friday about the new Force Design update, Marine leaders said one big focus involves incorporating robotics and AI into operations. “We know that the future is automation,” said Brig. Gen. STEPHEN LIGHTFOOT, the director of the Corps’ Capabilities Development Directorate.

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW.

On the Hill

CABLE FOR ALL: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will allow all members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee to read the Afghanistan dissent cable, a committee aide told NatSec Daily. HFAC Chair MICHAEL McCAUL’s (R-Texas) office later confirmed the decision.

“For the first time in history, the State Department has agreed to allow Congress to view a dissent channel cable,” McCaul said. “I want to thank Secretary Blinken for negotiating with me in good faith on this.”

The move comes after McCaul and Blinken fought openly about providing the cable to the committee. The secretary, under threat of being held in contempt of Congress, eventually allowed McCaul and ranking member Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) to read it.

‘MAJOR COUP’: Republican lawmakers are furious that Biden administration officials traveled to China on the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre.

“The Biden Admin should uphold U.S. values and demand justice for Tiananmen Sq. victims, respect for human rights, the end of slave labor and concentration camps, and the cessation of the PRC’s threats against neighbors such as #Taiwan,” tweeted Rep. MARIO DIAZ-BALART (R-Fla.), the State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs subcommittee chair.

"This is no ordinary foreign policy stumble," Rep. DARRELL ISSA (R-Calif.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs committee, told Fox News Digital over the weekend. "It’s a concession demanded by the Chinese and granted by a White House and State Department willing to bend." He further called the trip a “major coup” for Xi.

DANIEL KRITENBRINK, the assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs, and SARAH BERAN, the NSC’s senior director for China and Taiwan, arrived in Beijing on June 4 for discussions starting June 5 about the Washington-Beijing relationship. That was the day that, in 1989, Chinese troops were sent into the square to quell an anti-government protest, leading to the deaths of hundreds of unarmed people.

The State Department didn’t respond to a request for comment about the timing of the visit. Kirby, the NSC spokesperson, said the visit “wasn’t timed to the anniversary of Tiananmen Square.” The timing “was not a misstep,” he continued, claiming critics were “making a whole lot out of nothing.”

Broadsides

COLLISION COURSE: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command released a video Sunday showing a Chinese destroyer nearly crashing into an American and Canadian ship in the Taiwan Strait — yet another incident showing aggressive maneuvers by China’s military toward Western crafts.

The video, recorded by USS Chung-Hoon, shows China’s Luyang III sailing about 150 yards right in the path of where the other two ships were going, an “unsafe” move, per INDOPACOM. Both the Chung-Hoon and the HMCS Montreal were performing a routine south to north transit of the strait on June 3.

The images come just days after a Chinese fighter jet flew right in front of an American surveillance aircraft above the South China Sea, forcing the RC-135 to fly through turbulence.

Transitions

— AMY DAVIS is Leidos’ new senior vice president and chief security officer. She was most recently deputy chief for the National Security Agency’s office of security and counterintelligence.

What to Read

— SAMUEL CHARAP, Foreign Affairs: An unwinnable war

— FREDERICK KEMPE, Atlantic Council: Dispatch from Kyiv: Ukraine deserves NATO membership and even more robust weapons

— MAX BOOT, The Washington Post: Washington is sanctioning 12,000 entities. It’s backfiring