‘More oil on the fire’: Serbia-Kosovo heats up again

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Thursday Jun 15,2023 08:06 pm

Jun 15, 2023

By Suzanne Lynch, Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Ari Hawkins

Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti, center, speaks with the media.

Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti (center) speaks with the media after a high-level Belgrade-Pristina dialogue meeting at the EEAS building in Brussels on May 2, 2023. | Fred Sierakowski/AP Photo

With help from Lara Seligman and Lili Bayer

Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt

Almost 25 years after the bitter war in the Balkans that ended with the NATO bombardment of Serbia, ethnic conflict has again erupted in Kosovo.

The latest tensions were sparked by April elections in four municipalities of North Kosovo — an area of Kosovo where more than 90 percent of people identify as Serbian. The elections were effectively boycotted by the Serb community, with the result that the four winning candidates were — unsurprisingly — from the ethnic Albanian community.

Kosovo’s decision to install the mayors, with the help of police, triggered violence, including ugly scenes last month which saw a Serb mob attack NATO troops — a visceral reminder of the ethnic tensions that persist in this corner of the Western Balkans. This week, three Kosovan police officers were kidnapped by Serbian Armed Forces.

The international community is losing patience — rapidly.

“The United States and EU have been very clear about our expectations from both parties,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of State GABRIEL ESCOBAR told NatSec Daily, noting discussions they’ve had with Serbian President ALEKSANDAR VUČIĆ and Kosovo Prime Minister ALBIN KURTI. “The EU-facilitated dialogue remains the only path forward, and all parties should take immediate steps to uphold commitments to implement their agreement to normalize relations,” he said, also calling for the unconditional release of the three detained Kosovo police officers.

Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Europe panel and spoke with Vučić this week, told us “it is on both Serbia and Kosovo to take responsibility and make concrete steps to deescalate tensions, or risk compromising important bilateral relationships with the United States.”

The U.S. and Europe have been uncharacteristically tough on Kosovo during the weeks-long ordeal. Though the history and politics of the former Yugoslavia are complex, Serbia is usually cast as the bad guy. Serbia does not recognize Kosovo’s independence, a position shared by five EU countries. But this time around the West has lost patience with Kurti.

The U.S. canceled Kosovo's participation in a NATO exercise last month. The EU has also punished Pristina by nixing high-level meetings and threatening to withhold much-needed funds.

“There is no doubt that foreign ministries across Europe — including Germany — are frustrated with Kurti,” says MILAN NIĆ, a Balkans expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “There is a perception that he doesn’t recognize the fragility of the situation and is putting more oil on the fire.”

But the current Kosovo stiffarm is facing some, well, stiff resistance in Brussels.

Member of the European Parliament VIOLA VON CRAMON-TAUBADEL told NatSec Daily that Kosovo is ultimately a long-standing partner of the EU.

“This situation is complex, but the blame-game is one-sided. Vučić is not a constructive player. He has not delivered,” she said, noting that he refused to sign the Ohrid agreement, the last substantial agreement between the two leaders which was brokered by the EU’s foreign policy chief JOSEP BORRELL back in March.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

The Inbox

INFORMAL DEAL WITH IRAN: The quiet months-long talks between the U.S. and Iran seem to have produced a handshake agreement to reduce nuclear tensions and bring wrongfully detained Americans home.

Under the arrangement, “Iran would agree…not to enrich uranium beyond its current production level of 60 percent purity,” per the New York Times’ MICHAEL CROWLEY, FARNAZ FASSIHI and RONEN BERGMAN. It would also “halt lethal attacks on American contractors in Syria and Iraq by its proxies in the region, expand its cooperation with international nuclear inspectors, and refrain from selling ballistic missiles to Russia.”

Washington, in exchange, would be expected to avoid tightening sanctions that harm Tehran’s economy, seizing foreign tankers carrying oil or seeking new punitive resolutions against Iran at the U.N. or the International Atomic Energy Agency for its nuclear activity.

Three American-Iranian prisoners the U.S. has said were wrongfully detained would also be released when Washington unfreezes billions of dollars in Iranian assets, which would be used for humanitarian purposes.

Criticisms have poured in. In a letter to President JOE BIDEN first seen by NatSec Daily, Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) said he was “disturbed” by the reports and urged the administration to let lawmakers weigh in. “Any arrangement or understanding with Iran, even informal, requires submission to Congress,” he wrote, referring to the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015.

The State Department denies such an informal arrangement is in the works. But if it is, one thing we noticed is the seeming link between the nuclear and hostage issues. For months, the administration said they were separate — that nuclear discussions could continue apart from hostage releases. Now, it appears they may be more closely related than before.

WAR IS ‘A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT’: Countries supporting Ukraine’s war efforts need to “dig deep” to continue providing Kyiv with munitions and air defense capabilities, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said.

“Ukraine’s fight is a marathon, and not a sprint. So we will continue to provide Ukraine with the urgent capabilities that it needs to meet this moment, as well as what it needs to keep itself secure for the long term from Russian aggression,” Austin told his counterparts at a Ukraine Defense Contact Group, as Matt reports.

Austin’s comments came as the U.S. joined Denmark, the Netherlands and Britain in a joint statement pledging more air-defense support to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials note that the counteroffensive has been met with fierce Russian resistance in recent days. “It is very difficult to advance,” HANNA MALYAR, one of Ukraine’s deputy defense ministers, told reporters today.

PGA MERGER UNDER MICROSCOPE: The Justice Department notified the PGA Tour that it’ll review the planned merger between the organization and LIV Golf’s Saudi backers, citing antitrust concerns, the Wall Street Journal’s ANDREW BEATON and LOUISE RADNOFSKY report.

TREASURY IN HONG KONG: A senior Treasury official traveled to Hong Kong last week at a time when the U.S. wants to thaw relations with China. ROBERT KAPROTH, deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury for Asia, was in the city “to meet with private and public sector contacts on macroeconomic and financial developments in Hong Kong and” China, said an official granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of the meetings.

Kaproth’s visit comes as Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN heads to China later this week to keep diplomatic ties with Beijing from spiraling.

Kaproth is the first senior U.S. official to visit Hong Kong since the city closed its borders in 2020, Nikkei Asia’s ECHO WONG and PAK YIU report. Kaproth was also in Beijing earlier this year.

JETS TO MIDDLE EAST: The Air Force has deployed F-22 fighter jets to the Middle East because of Russian aircraft conducting “unsafe” flights in the area, our own ANDREW ZHANG reported Wednesday.

“Russian Forces’ unsafe and unprofessional behavior is not what we expect from a professional air force,” Army Gen. MICHAEL “ERIK” KURILLA, the head of CENTCOM, said in a statement. “Their regular violation of agreed upon airspace deconfliction measures increases the risk of escalation or miscalculation.”

IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @_AriHawkins and @JGedeon1.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

2024

‘MILITARY ACTION IN CUBA’: Miami Mayor FRANCIS SUAREZ is now the 13th GOP presidential candidate and third Florida man of the 2024 cycle, our own GARY FINEOUT and BRAKKTON BOOKER report.

Suarez, like many Cuban-Americans in Florida, is hawkish toward the communist island 100 miles away from the U.S. In 2021, he floated the idea of “military action” to support Cubans protesting the government.

"What should be contemplated right now is a coalition of potential military action in Cuba, similar to what has happened…in both Republican and Democrat administrations," he told Fox News at the time. He cited the 1989 invasion of Panama to depose MANUEL NORIEGA, the assassination of OSAMA BIN LADEN in Pakistan and NATO’s Kosovo air campaign as examples to follow.

Asked specifically if the U.S. should launch air strikes on Cuba, Suarez replied: “What I'm suggesting is that option is one that has to be explored, and one that cannot be just simply discarded."

“Cuba is exporting communism throughout the hemisphere and throughout the world,” he also told Fox Business.

NEXT NATO SECGEN: 2024 presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY agrees with ELBRIDGE COLBY’s argument that NATO’s next secretary general must come from a member country that meets the alliance’s 2 percent of GDP defense-spending target.

“What possible basis would there be for rewarding allies that fail to meet that vital standard?” the former Trump administration Pentagon official wrote in a tweet that Ramaswamy then retweeted.

Colby linked to a Wall Street Journal article about Poland’s resistance to another Nordic leader of NATO as Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN emerges as a top contender. Only seven allies met the spending benchmark in 2022 — Denmark wasn’t one of them, but Poland was.

In an interview last week, Ramaswamy told us he saw more need to create and prioritize a Pacific version of NATO than support the existing transatlantic alliance.

Keystrokes

HACKED: Multiple federal agencies are responding to a large-scale breach affecting a product used to transfer sensitive data, a senior government official confirmed Thursday to our own MAGGIE MILLER and JOHN SAKELLARIADIS.

The breaches are connected to a file-transfer program called MOVEit, which has a security hole that Russian-speaking cybercriminals have recently exploited to steal data from companies and demand ransom payments.

“CISA is providing support to several federal agencies that have experienced intrusions affecting their MOVEit applications,” ERIC GOLDSTEIN, executive assistant director for Cybersecurity at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said in a statement. “We are working urgently to understand impacts and ensure timely remediation.”

About a dozen U.S. agencies have active contracts with MOVEit, according to the federal data procurement system. It was unclear who was behind the breach, which was first reported by CNN.

CURBING CHINA? NOT SO FAST: EU, Malaysian and Singaporean officials expressed reluctance at joining Washington as it works to throttle Beijing’s rise as a global tech superpower, our own MARK SCOTT and BRENDAN BORDELON report.

“For Malaysia, China is an important trading partner,” said FAHMI FADZIL, Malaysia’s communications and digital minister, during POLITICO’s Global Tech Day. “Malaysia is a neutral country, we do adhere to a free market policy.”

Singapore had grown rich because of its open economy and would continue to build ties with China, DAVID KOH, chief executive of the country’s Cyber Security Agency, said at the event. LUCILLA SIOLI, a senior official within the European Commission’s DG CONNECT, added that Brussels would continue to work with Beijing, even as some European countries became increasingly wary of potential economic dependencies on China.

CONGRESS IS LOST ON AI: Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) said Congress “doesn’t know what the hell it’s doing” when it comes to regulating artificial intelligence, Matt and REBECCA KERN report.

“To be honest, Congress doesn’t know what the hell it’s doing in this area,” said Cruz, a ranking member of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation committee, also during Global Tech Day. “This is an institution [where] I think the median age in the Senate is about 142. This is not a tech savvy group.”

The Texas Republican emphasized that Washington can’t allow itself to fall behind Beijing when it comes to implementing artificial intelligence in the military, calling for “a comprehensive strategy for dealing with China, much like we had under RONALD REAGAN for dealing with the Soviet Union and for ultimately winning the Cold War.”

Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va), who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, said at the event shortly after that China “is very much ahead of the game in terms of self-regulating AI within their own nation-state,” our own MOHAR CHATTERJEE reports.

LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.

The Complex

NEW ROUNDS: Denmark and Norway agreed to send Ukraine an additional 9,000 rounds of artillery, which can be used in M109 vehicles and several other types of machinery, per the Norwegian Defense Ministry.

Japan is also in talks with the U.S. to provide Ukraine 155mm artillery shells, as it seeks a workaround for its arm export restrictions adopted in the 1960s, according to ALASTAIR GALE from the Wall Street Journal. The number of munitions Japan could provide as well as a timetable for delivery has not been made clear.

F-16 TRAINING: Dutch Defense Minister KAJSA OLLONGREN said today that the Netherlands has a number of decommissioned F-16 fighter jets that could be made available for training Ukrainian pilots, our own LILI BAYER reports.

However, the partners are still deciding whether those jets will be needed, Ollongren said.

Denmark and the Netherlands are leading a consortium of Western partners planning to train Ukrainians to fly the U.S.-made F-16 and other similar fighter jets, with the goal of starting the program this summer. DefSec Austin told reporters in Brussels today that he and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY were briefed on the outline of the plan, but the details still need to be ironed out.

Read: U.S.-trained Ukrainian pilot who died in combat had been eager to get back into the fight by LARA SELIGMAN

On the Hill

MENENDEZ SAYS: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J) told our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) that he’ll protect the State Department's role and Congress’s informal veto in foreign military sales amid efforts to speed up the process.

The comments came after the Pentagon on Tuesday unveiled plans to start a “defense security cooperation service,” accelerate contracting and factor allied needs into its industrial expansion efforts. It aims to work better with State — the lead agency for FMS and an entity that DOD jousts with over joint security cooperation efforts.

“I know our friends in the Department of Defense would like to have the one and only say, and they’ve already acquired too much of what should be the State Department's work,” said Menendez, who hadn’t yet seen the plans. “While they're a great entity, they're not omnipotent.”

FREE EVAN AND PAUL: A bipartisan group of 32 senators demanded the immediate release of Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH, as well as PAUL WHELAN, from Russian custody as Congress seeks to keep the focus on those detained by Moscow, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports.

"Since your arrest, we have advocated for your release publicly and privately. We will not stop until you are safely home. We believe that a free press is crucial to the foundation and support of human rights everywhere,” the lawmakers, led by Sens. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), wrote in a letter released today.

The House unanimously passed a non-binding resolution earlier this week to demand the journalist's release. It also called for Whelan's freedom from Russian detention.

Broadsides

AUSTRALIA BLOCKS RUSSIAN EMBASSY: The Australian government said today it would introduce legislation to cancel Russia’s lease to build a new embassy near Canberra, because of concerns over national security including espionage, reports RENJU JOSE for Reuters.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE told reporters.

The move comes as tensions sour between Australia and Russia over Moscow’s war effort, as Canberra remains one of the most generous non-NATO countries that provides assistance to Kyiv.

Moscow acquired the lease for the embassy building back in 2008 and had plans for construction approved in 2011. Russia initially agreed to complete construction within three years, but has since made only minor progress.

Transitions

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft is building out its public affairs team. ELIZABETH BEAVERS will start in July as the vice president for public affairs. JAMES WEBB, a RAND PAUL alum, joins as an advocacy associate while TORI BATEMAN becomes an outreach coordinator.

— CARA CAMACHO is now chief of staff for Rep. JIM HIMES (D-Conn). She previously was an SVP at the Bank Policy Institute and is an Obama Treasury, DOD and NSC alum.