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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Paul McLeary, Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  A coalition of 11 NATO countries will help Ukrainians learn how to fly the American warplane, with much of the instruction expected to take place in Denmark and Romania. | Axel Heimken/Pool/AFP/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– The first group of Ukrainian pilots that will take part in F-16 training have been identified, moving Kyiv one step closer to fielding an advanced warplane that could ward off further Russian invasions. According to both a U.S. official and a person familiar with Ukrainian planning, who weren’t authorized to speak on the record about the plans, eight Ukrainian pilots who are fluent in English are ready to begin training on the fighter jet as soon as a formal training plan is drawn up by a handful of European allies and approved by the United States. The exact timing of that instruction remains unclear. The U.S. official further said 20 pilots that speak some English are available to start language courses in the United Kingdom as soon as this month. (That may be what Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY meant when he announced the start of F-16 training in August.) Altogether, 32 Ukrainian pilots — enough for two squadrons — have been identified to potentially take part in the training program, but English proficiency remains a sticking point. A coalition of 11 NATO countries will help Ukrainians learn how to fly the American warplane, with much of the instruction expected to take place in Denmark and Romania. The Biden administration is still awaiting a formal training proposal from European allies, but the U.S. official said Washington is “hopeful” the request will come within weeks. U.S. officials insist the F-16s are for the yearslong defense of Ukraine, to make Russia think twice about enhancing its invasion of the country. The administration has repeatedly said that it doesn’t support Kyiv launching attacks inside Russia. NatSec Daily understands that Ukrainian officials have vowed they would not use the F-16s to fly over sovereign Russian territory and bomb targets. Meanwhile, Ukrainian sea drones damaged a Russian naval ship in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk on Friday. While Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it repelled the attack, footage shared widely on Telegram showed a Russian warship on fire and listing in the water. That added to the growing list of Ukrainian strikes inside Russia and Crimea. This week alone included two drone attacks by Ukraine in the Russian capital, the latest one on Tuesday hitting a building housing Russian ministries. On Sunday, after the Russian government blamed Kyiv for drone attacks in Moscow, Zelenskyy said that “gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia — to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process.”
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | BAD NEWS IF NIGER FALLS: If Niger’s junta keeps control of the country after its coup last week, “the whole world will be destabilized,” Nigerien ambassador to the U.S. KIARI LIMAN-TINGUIRI told The Washington Post’s ISHAAN THAROOR. “If Niger falls, the whole Sahel will collapse,” the ambassador said. “There will be a totally destabilized zone with Wagner on one side, and ISIS and al-Qaeda on the other will be controlling the situation.” Liman-Tinguiri also dismissed the junta’s warning against a military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States, saying that he doesn’t “think it’s a credible threat because I don’t think they have the means to threaten the rest of the region.” Nigerien President MOHAMED BAZOUM, who said he is being held as a “hostage” by the soldiers that overthrew his government, also warned that the world would be destabilized if the coup succeeds in a Washington Post op-ed Thursday night. He called on Washington and the international community to “help us restore our constitutional order.” The same night, the junta said it cut military ties with France and fired key ambassadors from the previous administration, further deepening the country’s isolation, the Associated Press’ SAM MEDNICK reports. COLOMBIAN CEASEFIRE: Colombia and the country’s largest remaining rebel group agreed to a six-month ceasefire Thursday in a major win for President GUSTAVO PETRO, Al Jazeera reported. Announced in June, the agreement is the result of talks between Petro’s government and the National Liberation Army, a rebel group that has battled with the government for six decades. If the ceasefire holds, it’ll be the “longest bilateral ceasefire ever concluded with [a] guerrilla group,” according to the International Crisis Group. 19 YEARS FOR NAVALNY: A Russian court sentenced Kremlin critic ALEXEI NAVALNY to an additional 19 years in prison — on extremism charges, the AP reports. The charges relate to Navalny’s work exposing corruption in Putin’s regime, a longstanding thorn in the Kremlin’s side. It’s now the fifth conviction by Russia’s rubber-stamp courts, with critics alleging it's all part of a plot to keep the 47-year-old opposition figure out of the limelight. Navalny is already in prison on a nine-year sentence on charges of fraud and contempt of court. In 2021, he was sentenced to two and a half years for a parole violation. SAUDI PEACE TALKS: Beijing will send LI HUI, its special representative on Eurasian affairs, to Saudi Arabia this weekend to take part in peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. “China stands ready to work with the international community to continue to play a constructive role in seeking a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN said in a statement. Read: From pariah to peacemaker: Saudi Arabia’s bid to become Ukraine war middleman by SUZANNE LYNCH DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring SARAH WEINSTEIN, the new top spokesperson over at the Commerce Department. When she’s not telling NatSec Daily to back off, Weinstein enjoys a margarita (or two) during the summer heat on the patio of Don Juan’s in Mt. Pleasant. On the less oppressively hot days, you’ll find the alum of Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN’s office there with her spirited long-haired dachshund, Gracie. Cheers, Sarah!
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @ebazaileimil.
| | CHRISTIE IN UKRAINE: Former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE made a surprise trip to Ukraine today to meet with President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, our own KIERRA FRAZIER reports. An outspoken critic of DONALD TRUMP, Christie further bashed the former president Thursday: “I think he really likes strongmen,” he told The New York Times’ CHARLES HOMANS, likely referring to Trump’s past praise for Putin. “I think those are his role models in terms of the way he would like to control power if left to his own devices.” Christie also called out the Biden administration for hesitating to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, saying that he “would have been sending them months ago.” He’s the second 2024 GOP presidential candidate to visit Ukraine, as former Vice President MIKE PENCE made the trip in June.
| | | OLD STUFF: The State Department is running outdated software at many of its embassies and missions — making them easy prey for hackers — and lacks the cybersecurity personnel to secure critical networks, according to a report from a government watchdog, our own MAGGIE MILLER and BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN report. The Government Accountability Office put together the report before news broke last month that Chinese hackers had gained access to the emails of high-level State Department officials. It highlights the fact that concerns about the State Department’s ability to protect its sensitive communications are long-running and deep. Two people familiar with the report, which isn’t yet public, said that GAO found that many U.S. embassies and missions use vulnerable legacy systems, including Windows XP, an operating system Microsoft stopped providing any automatic updates to almost a decade ago. That means that Microsoft is not developing patches or fixes for any security holes that emerge that hackers could exploit to gain access to those networks.
| | | |   | | | | | HOLD SCOLD: For the first time in U.S. history, two of the eight seats on the Pentagon’s Joint Chiefs of Staff are filled by interim officers thanks to Alabama Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s eight-month-long hold on military promotions, Paul reports (for Pros!). On Friday, Gen. JAMES McCONVILLE retired as the Army’s chief of staff, handing the job of running the Army to his No. 2, Gen. RANDY GEORGE. And with that, the Army joined the Marine Corps as the second service to be without a Senate-confirmed uniformed leader, with no end in sight to the blockade. “The failure to confirm our superbly qualified senior uniformed leaders undermines our military readiness,” Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said at the changeover ceremony at an Army installation just outside Washington on an uncharacteristically cool and rainy morning. “It undermines our retention of some of our very best officers. And it is upending the lives of far too many of their spouses, children and loved ones.” As of Friday, there were 301 senior military officers caught up in Tuberville’s hold, ranging from the heads of the Army, Marines, Navy and the next chair of the Joint Chiefs. The blockade is also holding up changes of command for the heads of the 5th and 7th fleets, which run naval operations in the Middle East and Pacific, and the next leaders of the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Air Force’s Air Combat Command. BIGGER RUSSIAN BUDGET: Moscow doubled its defense spending target this year to more than $100 billion, according to a government document reviewed by Reuters, as the costs of its invasion of Ukraine take a toll on the Kremlin’s finances. Russia spent $58.4 billion on defense spending in the first six months of 2023, amounting to more than a third of the country’s total expenditures for that period. It originally planned to spend about $54 billion on the war this year.
| | | CHINA DOVE?: South Carolina Sen. TIM SCOTT — like every Republican presidential candidate — loves to talk tough on China, but his record in Washington tells a different story, our own GAVIN BADE reports. Since taking the top Republican slot on the powerful Senate Banking Committee this year, the South Carolina lawmaker has been one of the biggest roadblocks to new rules restricting U.S.-China trade — everything from TikTok bans to reviews of high-tech investment. GOP national security hawks in Washington say that work doesn’t match the rhetoric in Scott’s recent presidential campaign ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, where the long-shot candidate slams “JOE BIDEN’s weakness” and promises to “keep China out of our homeland, and out of our data.” Scott has “only been willing to support new China policies if there’s very little cost, effectively saying that it isn’t worth it to stand up to China,” said DEREK SCISSORS, a senior fellow at American Enterprise Institute. “For Sen. Scott in particular, this won’t work. The spotlight of the primary makes it much harder to hide inconsistencies between words and actions.”
| | | | HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | | STOP THE AID: More than half of the American public don’t want the U.S. to provide more assistance to Ukraine during its war with Russia, per a CNN poll conducted by SSRS. CNN’s JENNIFER AGIESTA sums up the main finding: “Overall, 55 percent say the U.S. Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine vs. 45 percent who say Congress should authorize such funding. And 51 percent say that the U.S. has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48 percent say it should do more.” However, support for the type of assistance varies, Agiesta notes. “There is broader support for help with intelligence gathering (63 percent) and military training (53 percent) than for providing weapons (43 percent), alongside very slim backing for U.S. military forces to participate in combat operations (17 percent).” The results differ from other recent surveys that showed generally broad approval of continued support for Ukraine. It’s unclear if the CNN/SRSS poll is an outlier or representative of a changed attitude in the country. GETTING READY: China is airing a documentary that shows its military preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, reports the South China Morning Post’s LIU ZHEN. Zhu Meng, or “Chasing Dreams,” is an eight-episode piece that started airing Tuesday to coincide with the People Liberation Army’s 96th anniversary. It features some stark moments, including a pilot in a PLA stealth fighter jet promising to launch a suicide attack if need be. “My fighter would be my last missile, rushing towards the enemy if in a real battle I had used up all my ammunition,” said LI PENG, a J-20 pilot from Wang Hai Squadron. In another shot, PLA Navy sailor ZUO FENG says, “If war broke out and the conditions were too difficult to safely remove the naval mines in actual combat, we would use our own bodies to clear a safe pathway for our landing forces.” Granted, this is propaganda, so everything from the statements to the overall message should be taken with grains of salt. But the documentary will likely fuel fears in Taiwan and the U.S. that Beijing is preparing for a full-scale invasion.
| | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: KELLY RAZZOUK is joining the NSC as senior director for democracy and human rights. She was most recently the acting chief of staff and deputy chief of staff for policy for U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD. She previously served in senior roles in the Obama administration working on human rights and humanitarian issues under SAMANTHA POWER and at the International Rescue Committee. — CHARLIE CLEVELAND, who previously served as the director of operations for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and vice director for intelligence for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has joined Pallas Advisors as a principal. — JENNIFER NELSON is Finch AI's new chief operating officer. She had been the firm’s general manager of national security since 2020.
| | — KEREN YARHI-MILO and LAURA RESNICK SAMOTIN, Foreign Affairs: The Unpredictable Dictators — Government of New Zealand: Secure Together — FRED KAPLAN, Slate: Why China Is Crucial to What Happens in the War in Ukraine
| | — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: A requiem for dominance: new U.S. strategies to deter aggression — National Defense Industrial Association, 9:20 a.m.: Space and integrated air, missile defense: meeting the global challenge Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has gone from attacking us in the office to our own homes. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who is only the target of everyone’s affection.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
