Prigozhin presumed dead and Ukraine leaks

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Wednesday Aug 23,2023 08:02 pm

Aug 23, 2023

By Alexander Ward, Paul McLeary, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil

Yevgeny Prigozhin is pictured.

Yevgeny Prigozhin is pictured prior to a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on July 4, 2017. | Pool Photo by Sergei Ilnitsky

With help from Daniel Lippman

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BREAKING — REPORTS THAT PRIGOZHIN KILLED: Russian news sources report that air defenses downed a private jet with Wagner mercenary group boss YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN aboard.

The downing, which reportedly killed 10 people near Tver in Russia, remains unconfirmed by independent outlets. The Biden administration doesn’t have confirmation of their own “at this time,” a U.S. official said. Biden has been briefed on the crash.

"We have seen the reports. If confirmed, no one should be surprised. The disastrous war in Ukraine led to a private army marching on Moscow, and now — it would seem — to this," Watson told us.

If it’s true — and Wagner executives are saying it is — it will fuel suspicion that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN got his revenge following the Prigozhin-led mutiny exactly two months ago.

As CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS said during this year’s Aspen Security Forum: "Putin is someone who generally thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold.

“In my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback, so I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution for this,” he continued.

And now to our main story ...

The Biden administration has minimized leaks since it came to power. But now it’s watching U.S. officials tell reporters about the darkening prospects for Ukraine’s counteroffensive and military advice Kyiv ignored — in what appears to be the first deliberate and sustained unauthorized leak campaign during JOE BIDEN’s presidency.

This is nothing like the spill of classified materials on Discord or the administration’s purposeful downgrade of intelligence ahead of Russia’s invasion. Stories appearing in the Washington Post, the New York Times, the Financial Times and this newsletter, among others, all suggest one thing: Some people, somewhere in the bowels of government, want to pin Ukraine’s battlefield woes on Kyiv and deflect blame aimed at Washington.

Consider, for example, that multiple outlets reported on U.S. officials urging their Ukrainian counterparts to amass troops along one spot on the front with Russia to punch through it, instead of spreading forces thin along the 600-mile line.

Major authorized leaks need White House approval in this administration. Multiple officials anonymously told NatSec Daily that no green light was given, which National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON also supported on the record. “There is no coordinated leak campaign. Ukrainian forces are fighting heroically to defend their country and the only thing we are focused on is putting Ukraine in the best possible position to do that,” she said.

Some positive news for Ukraine is getting out. One senior defense intelligence official, requesting anonymity to discuss internal assessments, told us that Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. VALERY GERASIMOV is “aggressively incompetent,” and his successful political maneuvering to retain his status signals that the Russian strategy is unlikely to change in any major way.

As for the more negative stories, dogged reporters, of course, could be talking to the same aides, who are more than happy to see their message spread around. It’s also natural that after one outlet reports a juicy nugget, others follow to confirm it, leading to an echo the original sources may never have intended.

But the reports have remarkably similar details and specific scenes. The NYT wrote about an Aug. 10 video teleconference in which Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY, alongside the top U.S. military official in Europe and his British counterpart, convinced the senior-most Ukrainian Gen. VALERIY ZALUZHNYY to focus on one main front.

Three U.S. officials, who like others spoke to us without authorization, said they believe Pentagon staffers — likely without the comms shop’s say so — are talking to the press out of turn, citing the above anecdote and a NatSec Daily edition on Milley’s war views last week as evidence (rest assured, we never reveal sources). Two others theorized that the leaks were coming from the intelligence community, especially since an assessment’s details reached WaPo (though that story noted the intelligence was briefed “to some Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill”).

If there’s one thing NatSec Daily knows for sure, it’s that unauthorized leaks drive this White House crazy, especially if they hint Biden isn’t fully supportive of a friendly nation or is airing dirty laundry in public. They certainly won’t like the suggestion that the information may be designed to inoculate the administration from criticism should Ukraine’s counteroffensive fail. After all, the main takeaway from the stories is that America shares no responsibility for Kyiv’s wartime problems.

One U.S. official claimed any further leakers may soon look foolish: “It’s way too early to start pointing fingers or placing blame, because in a couple weeks, people may be scrambling to take credit.”

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The Inbox

BRICS SUMMIT TENSIONS: An influential bloc including Russia and China have agreed on a mechanism to bring new members into the group with the goal of developing the “global south,” according to Reuters’ CARIEN DU PLESSIS and KRISHN KAUSHIK.

At this year’s BRICS summit in South Africa, leaders from both countries, as well as India, Brazil and South Africa, agreed on “a document that we've adopted which sets out guidelines and principles, processes for considering countries that wish to become members of BRICS,” South African Foreign Minister NALEDI PANDOR said. “That's very positive."

More than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining the bloc of mostly developing nations, and Iran, Venezuela and Algeria have formally asked to join. The effort to loop more countries in comes as China and Russia attempt to expand their influence abroad, with both expanding their presence in Africa and Beijing brokering deals in the Middle East.

OVER THE MOON: India became the fourth nation to touch down on the moon’s surface with its successful lunar lander mission reaching the south pole today, Matt, JOSHUA POSANER and SANYA KHETANI-SHAH report.

"India's successful moon mission is not just India's alone," Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI said in a public address, adding that "this success belongs to all of humanity and it will help moon missions by other countries in the future."

The landing follows Russia's dramatic failure to make it there first earlier with its Luna-25 probe, launched suddenly this month in an attempt to beat India, before crash landing over the weekend. Both probes hoped to research whether there are water reserves in the region, which could prove valuable for future human activity on the moon.

“India has demonstrated that not only can they do it in a very cost-effective manner, they’ve demonstrated that they can do something new and different,” BENJAMIN SILVERSTEIN, a research analyst for the Space Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Matt. “No one’s done it because it’s hard.”

MACHISMO AND MONEY: Over the past four months, Russian television ads attempting to recruit men into battle have shifted away from Moscow’s usual messaging that focused on the West as an existential threat to Russia.

Instead, videos have appealed to the potential troops’ masculinity, highlighted the pay and benefits for servicemen, and emphasized the ease of signing up to fight in Ukraine, according to a four-month analysis by the New York Times. The new push appears to have borne some fruit, as Moscow has kept up its invasion without needing to call for a second draft following the first last fall.

But the impact of the war on Russian soldiers is no longer easy to hide, as underscored by a local newscast that interviewed a wounded soldier calling for men to join the ranks and reap the benefits.

“The message: Yes, you could get hurt, but the government will take care of you. And you will have shown your patriotism,” the Times reports.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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2024

SOUTHERN BORDER ON MY MIND: Tonight’s the night. As GOP presidential candidates prepare to square up for the first debate, a new poll out today shows that Republican voters in Iowa care a lot about southern border policy.

Specifically, 77 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers in the battleground state said they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who supports using the military to secure the border, according to an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll.

That’s good news for several candidates on the stage, namely RON DeSANTIS and VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who are open to using military force on cartels. And DONALD TRUMP, who’s opting for an interview with TUCKER CARLSON instead of taking the stage, has long considered similar actions.

Another interesting data point is that 43 percent of respondents said they’re less likely to support a GOP candidate who wants to continue U.S. military aid to Ukraine, while 35 percent said they’d be more likely. Twenty percent said it doesn’t matter either way.

THE TAIWAN QUESTION: The debate hasn’t even started yet, and NIKKI HALEY is out with an attack on Ramaswamy’s stance on abandoning Taiwan after the U.S. achieves “semiconductor independence” by the end of his first term.

“It shows a complete lack of awareness of the breadth of the Chinese threat,” Haley told the Washington Post’s JOSH ROGIN, referring to Ramaswamy’s China plans. “That’s the problem with people who don’t understand national security, and he proved that. We can’t have a novice going into the White House.”

A prominent China hawk, the former U.N. ambassador made her stance clear: “We will do whatever we need to do to defend Taiwan, much like we have done what we needed to do to defend Ukraine.”

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Keystrokes

SHOW ME THE MONEY: The Pentagon approved higher pay for officials at the National Security Agency and in the defense-intelligence community, Federal News Network’s JUSTIN DOUBLEDAY reports.

“The undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness in May approved a ‘targeted local market supplement’ for select positions across the defense civilian intelligence personnel system,” he wrote. That supplement covers employees in 23 working series, such as in cyber, engineering, math or IT roles. That system became effective in the first pay period following the signing of a May 10 DOD memo.

“New employees with a bachelor degree hired into eligible positions can be paid a minimum salary of $76,156 under the supplemental rates, while those with a master’s degree could be offered a minimum of $88,250,” per the report. The most anyone can make at those agencies serving in authorized fields is $183,500.

The move comes as the Biden administration aims to compete for top talent with the private sector, which often can pay far more than the government can for top-quality labor.

The Complex

JETS TO JAKARTA: The Indonesian government and Boeing signed a memorandum of understanding this week for the purchase of 24 F-15EX fighters, a potential deal that needs the signoff of the U.S. government, our friends at Morning Defense report (for Pros!).

After years spent negotiating with Russia to buy a similar number of Su-35 jets, Indonesia finally threw in the towel in 2021 and embarked on a new effort that resulted in a February 2022 agreement to buy 36 F-15D fighters for $13.9 billion. That deal was blessed by the U.S. and the contract is in the works.

Any final agreement on the F-15EX, the most modern version of the aircraft, is still months, if not years, away, since the memorandum will have to wind its way through the Pentagon and State Department approval process before a contract can be negotiated between Jakarta and Boeing.

On the Hill

A ‘FRUITLESS’ TRIP: Two key Republican lawmakers have serious reservations about Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO’s trip to China next week after the recent breach of her email by alleged Chinese hackers, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) said the diplomatic visit would be “fruitless” in a statement to MC.

“Secretary Raimondo announced her plan [to] travel to China just weeks after her email was hacked by the CCP — sending a powerfully dangerous message not only to China, but also to adversaries like Iran and Russia,” McCaul said. “We cannot keep sending senior administration officials to Beijing when they continue to only respond with provocation and hostility.”

Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) said in a statement that he has “general concerns” about U.S. officials visiting China due to tensions: “China’s recent cyber intrusions targeting Secretary Raimondo only add to that. I continue to ask: Where are the deliverables? If China wants to talk to us, we should be getting something in return.”

CODEL MEETS ZELENSKYY: Sens. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) and ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) met with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY in Kyiv today. In a tweet, Zelenskyy wrote: “U.S. support for Ukraine’s F-16s coalition is vital.”

Broadsides

PUTIN BASHES SANCTIONS: Putin railed against the West at the opening sessions of this week’s BRICS summit, bashing “illegitimate sanctions” against Russia, according to the AP’s GERALD IMRAY and MOGOMOTSI MAGOME.

In a pre-recorded speech at the BRICS summit, Putin, who opted to attend virtually so as to avoid an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, took the opportunity to double down on his decision to pull out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July. Russia would only rejoin the agreement and allow Ukrainian grain to reach the global market undisturbed, Putin said, when restrictions against Russian agricultural and food products are eased.

The Russian leader said the Western reprisal against Russia “amounts to them trampling upon all the basic norms and rules of free trade.”

Observers also noted that the speech was dubbed by a voice actor with a strange deep voice, as our own PAUL DALLISON and DOUGLAS BUSVINE report. The Kremlin provided no information as to why Putin himself did not voice the speech.

Transitions

— LALITHA ADURY is now chief of staff for the policy planning staff at the State Department. She most recently was special assistant to the national security adviser.

— Former national security adviser JOHN BOLTON has been appointed to the board of laser tech company Nuburu.

— THOMAS SPOEHR tendered his resignation last week as director of the Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense, people familiar with the decision tell NatSec Daily, citing the think tank’s increasingly skeptical stance on supporting Ukraine as one reason for his departure.