The India-to-Europe corridor isn’t about China (wink wink)

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Thursday Sep 14,2023 08:02 pm
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
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By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil

Senior Advisor to U.S. President Biden Amos Hochstein is pictured speaking and gesturing.

Amos Hochstein, senior adviser to the president for energy and investment, told NatSec Daily the Middle East writ large could become “part of the clean energy suppliers to the world.” | Hussein Malla/AP Photo

With help from Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman

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A top aide to President JOE BIDEN argues a new deal struck at the G20 could turn the Middle East into an exporter of clean energy — and that the broad agreement showcases an “alternative” model to Chinese investment.

The endeavor, known as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, would connect India to those regions via new railways, ports and undersea cables. The details of the massive projects are technical, but the vision is geopolitical.

AMOS HOCHSTEIN, senior adviser to the president for energy and investment, told NatSec Daily the Middle East writ large could become “part of the clean energy suppliers to the world.” The region’s wealth in sun, wind and land makes it a natural area for renewable energy production at low cost, leaving space to develop clean hydrogen, as well.

That would be a boon to Europe, which doesn’t have “much ability to produce the amount of power and energy that they would need to consume,” said Hochstein, formerly a senior State Department official. The other bonus is that investments in the corridor would make pathways “more efficient, and they would make them faster and make them cleaner.”

Our main question for the White House aide was if this arrangement was a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. After all, the project fits under the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, which is widely seen as the West’s answer to Beijing’s charm offensive in the developing world.

“We believe that we bring a different model and a different offering,” Hochstein replied, “that doesn't require countries to go into debt, that would adhere to the highest standards.” A similar move also announced at the G20, to sustainably boost the critical-minerals sector between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, also exemplifies “the alternative offering that the United States brings to the table together with our partners.”

In short, yes. The U.S. wants low- and middle-income nations to pick Western sources of investment, not Chinese cash flows. But the administration won’t say that explicitly.

Our other query was more philosophical. This administration says the century’s defining fight pits autocracies versus democracies. Wasn’t this plan ultimately rewarding anti-democratic leaders in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and India while ignoring their human rights abuses?

“We can do more than one thing at a time,” said Hochstein, noting Biden brings the issue up in private meetings with counterparts, but “the president wants to promote first and foremost the United States’ national security.”

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
The Inbox

UKRAINE SMASH: Today was a big day for Ukraine destroying a bunch of Russia’s stuff.

Kyiv confirmed that it wrecked a Russian submarine, the Rostov-on-Don, during a missile attack on the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. A senior Ukrainian military official confirmed that Ukrainian pilots used Britain’s Storm Shadow cruise missile for the strike that also damaged Russia’s Minsk warship.

Ukraine also demolished one of Russia’s most advanced air-defense systems in Ukraine, per The Wall Street Journal’s JAMES MARSON. That strike “used drones and Ukrainian-made cruise missiles to target the S-400 missile system near Yevpatoriya in western Crimea,” he wrote, citing an unnamed Ukrainian official. Russia’s defense ministry, while not commenting on its own force’s damages, said it destroyed 11 Ukrainian aerial drones.

It’s the first officially confirmed use of Ukraine’s Neptune ground-launched anti-ship missile to hit a ground-based target.

OR WORSE, EXPELLED: The Kremlin announced it was kicking out two American diplomats over allegedly working with an anti-regime Russian national, Reuters’ ALEXANDER MARROW and MARK TREVELYAN report.

Russia’s foreign ministry told LYNNE TRACY, the U.S. ambassador to Russia, on Thursday that Embassy First Secretary JEFFREY SILLIN and Second Secretary DAVID BERNSTEIN have to leave the country within seven days.

The Russian in question is ROBERT SHONOV, who was employed by the U.S. Consulate General in Vladivostok. In August, Russia’s security service released a video of Shonov confessing that Sillin and Bernstein had asked him to collect information on Moscow’s planning for the war in Ukraine and the 2024 American presidential election (it’s unclear if Shonov’s statements were made under duress).

On the same day, the U.S. Treasury Department announced nearly 100 sanctions on Russian elites and entities related to the country’s defense-industrial base.

DRUGS FROM MEXICO BIGGEST THREAT TO AMERICANS: Illegal drugs produced in Mexico remains the deadliest threat to Americans, killing more people nationwide than foreign or domestic terrorists, according to an assessment by the Department of Homeland Security released today.

Officials are particularly concerned about the increased supply of fentanyl over the last year, as well as the variations in its production that have increased its lethality, a DHS official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the assessment ahead of its release, told NatSec Daily.

“Traffickers in Mexico and the United States are using various additives such as xylazine and mixing fentanyl into counterfeit prescription pills, which we believe is driving an increase in overdoses,” the official said.

A record number of migrants arriving at the borders has also complicated immigration security, the official said, adding that law enforcement has encountered a growing number of individuals on the terrorism watchlist.

Officials also cited violent extremist groups like al-Qaida and the Islamic State as a top threat, but one that has remained largely unchanged compared to last year, and continued disruption by cyberattacks.

IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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2024

PENCE ON PENTAGON: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE called on the Pentagon to “stand down” from opposing Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) block on military promotions over DOD’s abortion policy.

The Alabama Republican “has taken a stand defending the rights of tens of millions of pro-life taxpaying Americans to say ‘look, we are happy to invest in our national defense. We are happy to invest especially in our military personnel. But using taxpayer dollars for the military to advance a social agenda, that’s not what it’s there for,’” Pence told NewsNation on Wednesday night.

Tuberville has come under fire from Republicans and Democrats alike for his nine-month hold, including GOP presidential candidates NIKKI HALEY and CHRIS CHRISTIE. As a longtime opponent of abortion rights, Pence is an unsurprising ally amid the backlash.

Keystrokes

WHAT’S THE SPEED LIMIT: As Congress plays catchup with regulating artificial intelligence, lawmakers are split on how quickly they should move forward with new legislation, our own MOHAR CHATTERJEE and BRENDAN BORDELON reported Wednesday evening.

“Congress operates at the speed of molasses in sub-freezing weather,” Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) told Mohar and Brendan. “We need to operate at lightspeed on this issue.”

Blumenthal and Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.), prominent senators on the Judiciary Committee, held a hearing to refine their own set of comprehensive AI rules on Tuesday. That came just a day after Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER held his own gathering of tech CEOs — and pumped the brakes a bit.

“We don’t want to just put together legislation,” Schumer told reporters. “If you go too fast, you could ruin things.

The Complex

HOLDS HURT: Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI, Biden’s nominee to be the Navy’s top officer, said it could take the service “years to recover” from the impacts of Tuberville‘s blockade, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports.

Franchetti told the Senate Armed Services Committee during her confirmation hearing today that the impasse has created “a lot of uncertainty” for Navy families: “Just at the three-star level, it would take about three to four months just to move all the people around,” she said. “But it will take years to recover … from the promotion delays that we would see.”

UFO LIAISON: As the Pentagon attempts to streamline its UFO reporting process after years of scrutiny, NASA is creating a new position to coordinate sightings of so-called unidentified anomalous phenomena across federal agencies, Matt reports.

NASA Administrator BILL NELSON announced that he appointed a director of UAP research position, who will work to establish a database to evaluate future sightings, following the release of a NASA study calling for a “government-wide approach” to collecting data. It wasn’t made public who was appointed.

“This is a huge step for pilots and aviators that have been talking about this reporting,” RYAN GRAVES, a former military pilot who testified during the UFO hearing in July, told NatSec Daily. “They're taking some concrete steps, not only to integrate the reporting mechanism for pilots, but also to stand up a national UAP program office."

Also, there are probably aliens out there, Nelson said. But that’s beside the point.

 

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On the Hill

SENATORS TAKE UP NAGORNO-KARABAKH: Senators challenged a State Department official on the Biden administration’s response to the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, Eric reports in from Capitol Hill.

At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Acting Assistant Secretary of State YURI KIM maintained the U.S. “will not countenance any effort or action, short term or long term, to ethnically cleanse or commit other atrocities against the Armenian people of Nagorno-Karabakh,” yet stopped short of calling the blockade a genocide.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and others pressed Kim on Washington’s lack of “urgency.” Menendez, as well as Sens. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) and CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) also reiterated their opposition to military assistance waivers Azerbaijan has received since 2001. Kim confirmed that State has yet to submit a request for the waiver in light of the current situation.

Senators also questioned the lasting value of the U.S.-Azerbaijani relationship.

“Did we, perhaps, make the wrong bet by moving more Azerbaijani resources into Europe?” Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) posited. “And the question now becomes, are we funding the Azerbaijani’s efforts to impose a brutal blockade on the Armenian people?”

ICYMI — We can’t rely on Russia to protect us anymore, Armenian PM says, by our own GABRIEL GAVIN

Broadsides

MILLEY VS. TRUMP: The outgoing Joint Chiefs chair is disputing former President DONALD TRUMP’s characterization that he advised the former president to attack Iran.

“I can assure you that not one time have I ever recommended to attack Iran,” Gen. MARK MILLEY told CNN’s FAREED ZAKARIA in an interview that will air Sunday.

Speaking to biographers for MARK MEADOWS, Trump’s last chief of staff, Trump waved around a classified document he claimed was a Milley-drafted plan to strike the Islamic Republic.

The general, however, said he’d “never seen” the paper in question. “No one’s presented me with what it is they’re talking about. So, I really still can’t comment on it,” Milley continued.

Special counsel JACK SMITH indicted Trump over his alleged mishandling of classified documents, with audio of Trump bragging about the attack plans forming part of the case.

 

JOIN 9/19 FOR A TALK ON BUILDING THE NEW AMERICAN ECONOMY: The United States is undergoing a generational economic transformation, with a renewed bipartisan emphasis on manufacturing. Join POLITICO on Sept. 19th for high-level conversations that examine the progress and chart the next steps in preserving America’s economic preeminence, driving innovation and protecting jobs. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Transitions

— Biden tapped PENNY PRITZKER to be the U.S. special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery. Pritzker served as Commerce Secretary in the Obama administration.

ALEC JOHNSON will become director for legislative affairs on the National Security Council, NatSec Daily has learned. He was previously Sen. Murphy’s senior defense policy adviser.

BRIANNE TODD is now director for Central Asian affairs at the National Security Council. She most recently was a professor at the National Defense University detailed to the Office of Central Asian Affairs at the State Department.

What to Read

BORIS JOHNSON, The Spectator: Why aren’t we giving Ukraine what it needs?

J. MATTHEW McINNIS, The Institute for the Study of War: Russia and China look at the future of war

BEN TAUB, The New Yorker: The secret life and anonymous death of the most prolific war-crimes investigator in history

Tomorrow Today

The Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: Ukraine, the West, and the world: breaking point or transformational moment?

The Atlantic Council, 9:30 a.m.: One year on: the MAHSA AMINI protests and the road ahead for Iran

The Center for a New American Security, 11 a.m.: Virtual fireside chat with Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment WILLIAM LaPLANTE

The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: A book discussion on BETHANY ALLEN’s "Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World"

The Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: Securing Europe's tinderbox: economic and geopolitical challenges in the Balkans

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who rejects our repeated requests for an “alternative offering” of leadership.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is always our partner of choice.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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