Biden team and lawmakers get creative to keep Ukraine aid flowing

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Oct 06,2023 06:37 pm
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By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg

President Joe Biden

President Joe Biden and his aides are looking into using foreign military financing, a program run by the State Department that gives grants or loans to help partner countries purchase weapons and defense equipment as a way to continue funding Ukraine as congressional infighting dims the chances of an appropriation. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

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With the future of further military aid to Ukraine tied up due to congressional infighting, the Biden administration and lawmakers have been seeking creative ways to keep the weapons flowing.

Two scoops by our colleagues provide Exhibits A and B.

The first is that Team Biden is looking into using foreign military financing, a program run by the State Department that gives grants or loans to help partner countries purchase weapons and defense equipment. Those funds could go straight to Kyiv or other countries affected by Russia’s full-scale invasion, LARA SELIGMAN, PAUL McLEARY and CONNOR O’BRIEN report.

President JOE BIDEN hinted Wednesday that he was weighing alternative methods of backing Ukraine, saying “there is another means by which we may be able to find funding for that.”

The second workaround could come from Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.), as our sister newsletter Morning Defense (for Pros!) reports.

He’s mulling a three-way swap in which Poland, a NATO ally, gets America’s Iron Dome systems and sends some of its own air defenses to Ukraine. That comes after Israel rejected requests from Washington and Kyiv to send the Iron Dome — the highly effective short-range anti-rocket, anti-mortar and anti-artillery system Jerusalem depends on to defend against rockets fired from the Gaza Strip — directly to Ukraine. (Israel, a co-producer of the system, has veto authority over transfers.)

Van Hollen discussed the plan in a closed-door Pentagon briefing for Senate appropriators Wednesday. After that, he told our own JOE GOULD that he sees Poland, which acquired Patriot missile defenses from the U.S. last year, as a promising partner.

“Poland may be able to deploy its Patriot systems to Ukraine, where we've already deployed Patriot systems — that kind of swap, because so long as our two Iron Dome batteries remain within the custody of the United States, that’s fine,” Van Hollen said.

It makes sense for the administration and Ukraine supporters in Congress to plan nontraditional ways to keep weapons flowing. But these schemes point to an underlying pessimism that lawmakers won’t be able to go the standard round: bring a Ukraine-aid bill to the floor, pass it and send it to Biden’s desk, all during a scramble to pick a new speaker and solve a government-funding fight.

“It’s going to be even harder now with McCarthy gone,” Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), House Foreign Affairs chair, said this week. “We’re running out of time.”

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The Inbox

TURKEY STRIKES BACK: Turkish warplanes bombed sites believed to be used by a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia in Syria today, a day after American forces shot down a Turkish drone, escalating tensions between the NATO allies.

Turkish forces targeted about 30 sites, destroying bunkers, caves, shelters and warehouses in three regions that Ankara said were used by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and an allied militia, The Associated Press’ SUZAN FRASER reports.

That comes a day after U.S. fighter jets shot down a Turkish drone armed with air-to-ground missiles. The drone was deemed a threat to American troops and Syrian Democratic Forces at the Tal Baydar base.

NUKE BAN NO MORE: Russia signaled today that it will soon walk away from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which prohibits all nuclear explosions for military or peaceful purposes. It’s yet another signal of weakening arms control arrangements between the world’s foremost owners of the bomb.

According to The Wall Street Journal’s ANN SIMMONS and LAURENCE NORMAN, VYACHESLAV VOLODIN, speaker of Russia’s State Duma, hinted Moscow will discuss withdrawing from the treaty during the chamber’s next meeting. “The situation in the world has changed,” he said. “Washington and Brussels have launched a war against our country. Today’s challenges require new solutions.”

On Thursday, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said his regime will look at leaving the treaty in part because the U.S. signed on to it but never ratified the agreement. “In theory, ratification is revocable. If we do it, this will suffice,” he told a Russian think tank audience.

It’s unclear if the move means Moscow will lead to nuclear weapons testing. The Kremlin suggests the decision merely puts it in line with the U.S.

But as the WSJ points out: “Putin said Russia had almost finished working on new types of strategic weapons and that it had successfully tested the Burevestnik, a global-range nuclear-powered cruise missile, and finished work on the Sarmat, an intercontinental ballistic missile that carries a heavy nuclear payload.”

NO MISSILES FOR YOU: German press indicates that Berlin is unlikely to deliver long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ has yet to confirm that stance publicly, but in private his government has relayed that decision to Kyiv.

The pressure is mounting on Germany, which fears providing Ukraine with long-range missiles would escalate matters with Russia. There’s a sense, though, that Scholz may ultimately agree to send Tauruses if the United States delivers long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems. If that’s the case, it would be another instance — like with tanks this year — of Berlin waiting for the U.S. to move before it follows along.

“It doesn’t matter that France and the U.K. already went ahead with similar kinds of missiles. As long as Biden does not give the final green light on ATACMS, Berlin will not move,” the Council on Foreign Relations’ LIANA FIX told us.

Biden last month told Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY that he would send ATACMS to Ukraine, but no date has been set for their delivery.

COUP ATTEMPT? Moldova’s president said today that Wagner Group mercenaries were behind a failed coup attempt to oust her from power, The Financial Times’ HENRY FOY reports.

“The information that we have is that it was a plan prepared by [YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN’s] team,” MAIA SANDU said, noting that the plot included turning anti-government protests into a “violent” affair. “The situation is really dramatic and we have to protect ourselves.”

As Foy reports: “European and U.S. officials warned in February that Russia was planning to topple Sandu’s pro-Western government and Moldova said in March that it had arrested a Wagner member and charged them with fomenting unrest.”

Moldova became an official applicant to join the European Union last year.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring ELIZABETH WHELAN, sister of PAUL WHELAN, the wrongfully detained former U.S. Marine still held in Russia. When she’s not having breakfast with Alex, you can find her in D.C. pushing for her brother’s release or out in the world finding the best things to drink.

Currently on vacation in England, Whelan told us she’s really enjoying half pints of cider in remote British pubs. They’re best “when trying to escape the insanity of D.C.,” she said.

But when she is in the American capital, you can usually find Whelan sipping on watery coffee from the Dirksen Senate Building’s vending cafe. “That has to suffice,” she told us, “while I am kicking up dust for Paul Whelan's sake.”

Cheers, Elizabeth!

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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2024

SUB-PAR DECISION? Soon after he left office, former President DONALD TRUMP spilled sensitive U.S. nuclear submarine information to an Australian billionaire who shared it with more than a dozen foreign officials, people familiar with the matter told ABC News’ KATHERINE FAULDERS, ALEXANDER MALLIN and MIKE LEVINE.

That was brought to special counsel JACK SMITH’s attention by Pratt Industries head ANTHONY PRATT as Smith's team investigated Trump’s handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate, the people said. They added that Pratt also told some of his employees and several journalists about his talks with Trump.

Pratt was trying to make conversation with Trump at the estate in 2021 when he brought up the topic of nuclear subs, the people said. He told the former president that Australia should start buying its subs from Washington. Trump then allegedly told him the number of nuclear warheads they normally carry and how close they can get to a Russian sub without being detected.

It’s unclear whether the intel Trump shared was accurate, but investigators told Pratt he shouldn’t repeat the information either way, the people said.

 

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Keystrokes

WALK THIS HUAWEI: Ukraine is still considering Chinese telecom suppliers Huawei and ZTE to rebuild its infrastructure damaged by Russia’s attacks, the country’s deputy digital minister YEGOR DUBINSKY told our own ANTOANETA ROUSSI (for Pros!).

“We have to give the contract to the partner who will propose the lowest price — obviously it will be ZTE and Huawei,” Dubinsky said, citing public procurement rules set by the U.S. and EU. “We have no legal reasons to cut them down.”

Ukraine’s Western allies have all rolled out policies to decrease their reliance on Chinese telecom vendors or ban them due to fears that such reliance poses security risks, exposes countries to potential espionage, and creates economic dependencies. But estimates say it could take $2.3 billion to restore Kyiv’s digital infrastructure destroyed by Moscow.

“That’s a lot of money,” Dubinsky said. “We are in a very tricky situation.”

The Complex

SWEDEN TO SEND WEAPONS: Sweden will send nearly $200 million in military aid to Ukraine, mainly consisting of artillery ammunition, as it also weighs transferring fighter jets.

Swedish Defense Minister PAL JONSON announced the package today during a news conference, adding that he gave his armed forces until Nov. 6 to decide if Stockholm could deliver Gripen jets to Ukraine. The one caveat, he said, is that Sweden needs to be a member of NATO before sparing any warplanes.

"We need to design our support so that it's long term and sustainable," Jonson said. "It is now important that more countries step up to support Ukraine."

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was in Spain on Thursday to meet with nearly 50 world leaders, urging them to further arm Kyiv as the war with Russia trudges on. But the gathering, per our colleagues in Europe, “ended as a damp squib when those gathered failed to make any significant progress to resolve conflicts on Europe’s doorstep — or any other regional issue.”

 

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On the Hill

DON’T MIND MEXICO: Rep. JOAQUIN CASTRO (D-Texas) introduced a resolution today reaffirming Washington’s commitment to respecting Mexico’s sovereignty and condemning calls for military action against the southern neighbor.

After the introduction of the resolution, co-led by Reps. JESÚS “CHUY” GARCIA (D-Ill.) and NYDIA VELÁZQUEZ (D-N.Y.) and co-sponsored by 31 others, Castro cited an “alarming rise in reckless remarks” calling for military action against cartels in Mexico. Several GOP presidential candidates, including Trump, VIVEK RAMASWAMY and RON DeSANTIS have said they’d take such action if elected.

“War with Mexico would cause devastating loss of life and would be disastrous for millions of Mexicans and Americans living in Mexico, as well as those in the U.S. whose livelihoods depend on legitimate cross-border trade,” Castro wrote in a statement.

Broadsides

SLOVAKIA TO STOP SENDING WEAPONS: Slovakian officials said the country will stop sending weapons to Ukraine after the leftist-populist party took control last weekend, our own KETRIN JOCHECOVÁ reports.

“The outgoing bureaucratic government in Slovakia will not send any more military material to Ukraine,” a government spokesperson said. The country’s defense ministry was considering sending a new package of aid.

Former Prime Minister ROBERT FICO’s leftist-populist Smer party won the parliamentary election on Saturday after promising to stop sending weapons to Ukraine, to block Kyiv’s potential NATO membership and to oppose sanctions on Russia. Slovak President ZUZANA ČAPUTOVÁ asked Fico this week to try to form a coalition government, and he has until Oct. 16 to do so.

Transitions

NEERAJ CHANDRA is now a special adviser to the chief scientist of the Air Force. He most recently interned as a business and technology policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center and is a recent Harvard Business School grad.

— Navy Reserve Rear Adm. JOHN ROBINSON has taken over as the Navy’s vice chief of information from Navy Reserve Rear Adm. PAULA DUNN, who is retiring. Robinson’s civilian job is editor of Defense Daily.

What to Read

NICOLA TWILLEY, The New Yorker: The man painting America’s wars

HAKEEM JEFFRIES, The Washington Post: A bipartisan coalition is the way forward for the House

MICHAEL SCHAFFER, POLITICO: Should we be worried that Washington’s pandas are being sent back to China?

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Innovating at hypersonic speed.

Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more.

 
Tuesday Today

The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: Discussion about the latest details regarding how the National Reconnaissance Office develops, acquires, launches and operates the latest space-based intelligence assets

The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Protecting U.S. interests: how to defeat Putin and set Ukraine on the path to NATO

The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: Pakistan in crisis once again

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: Managing geopolitical risk in Mexico's information communications technology sector

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: Implementing competitive endurance: space intelligence

The Atlantic Council, 3:30 p.m.: Modernizing the U.S. Air and Space Forces

Defense One, 5:15 p.m.: Discussion with Army leaders on lessons learned from Ukraine and how it affects the service's strategies and readiness in the Pacific

Thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who finds creative ways to ensure we don’t get the support we need.

We also thank our producer, Andy Goodwin, who is our biggest backer.

 

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