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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  Rockets are fired toward Israel from the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023. | Ariel Schalit/AP Photo | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Daniel Lippman and Lara Seligman If you’re in Israel and Google Maps isn’t working, that’s a sign of the military’s efforts to deter missiles from Hezbollah. But it could have a dangerous impact on Israeli civilians and commercial aircraft. A group of researchers at the University of Texas at Austin who have tracked GPS signals in the region for years noticed a strange pattern emerging after the Hamas militant group’s surprise attack on Oct. 7: Planes flying near the Mediterranean sea briefly disappeared from sight over many parts of Israel. That’s a sign of “GPS spoofing,” a technique in which the location of an airplane — or precision-guided missile — or any object that uses GPS is rendered inaccurate. “This is the most sustained and clear indication of spoofing I've ever seen” and affects potentially hundreds of large commercial airplanes, TODD HUMPHREYS, a professor at UT Austin, told your anchor. His graduate student, ZACH CLEMENTS, first discovered the spoofing pattern. Pilots on those planes use GPS as one of their key navigation tools, optimizing flight routes, reducing fuel usage and helping with landing among other important functions. A spoofing incident over Iraq and Iran in September almost caused a business jet to fly into Iranian airspace without clearance. Missiles that use GPS could also be thrown off their trajectory, making it hard to predict where in Israeli territory they would land. That could pose additional risk to civilians from missiles meant for military targets. The Israel Defense Forces announced on Oct. 15 that GPS had been “restricted in active combat zones in accordance with various operational needs,” but did not note the extent of the signal disruptions. Citizens near Israel’s border should stay near protected zones, the statement said, and Israelis should also expect “temporary glitches in location-based applications” like Google Maps. Clements said Israel also issued a warning to pilots landing in the country that they shouldn’t rely on GPS to land, instead relying on other methods onboard to do so. The IDF didn’t respond to questions about the matter aside from pointing to previous statements. The danger of missile strikes is a real one. Lebanon-based military group Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and sympathetic to Hamas, has a massive arsenal of rockets, including precision-guided missiles. The group has already attacked Israeli forces near the border with rockets, but fighting in the area has remained relatively small-scale. The militant group has yet to fire its long-range missiles at Israeli targets, which could escalate the conflict. The Biden administration has discussed options it could take if Hezbollah becomes more entrenched in the war, including using U.S. military force against the group. Read the full story here.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Using Artificial Intelligence to help firefighters better detect, predict and fight wildfires.
Lockheed Martin is collaborating with commercial companies to integrate our technologies and expertise with their capabilities to help first responders detect, predict and fight wildfires. Learn more. | | | | | MORE THAN 5,000 DEAD: The Palestinian death toll in the Gaza Strip continued to rise rapidly as Israel ramped up airstrikes and raided inside the walled territory today. Some 5,000 Palestinians, including about 2,000 minors and 1,100 women, have been killed so far, the Hamas-run Health Ministry said. And Israeli forces using tanks and armored vehicles clashed with militants inside Gaza today, The Washington Post’s MIRIAM BERGER, NOGA TARNOPOLSKY and WILLIAM BOOTH report. That comes as the U.S. is urging Israel to delay its imminent ground invasion of Gaza to allow more time to negotiate for hostages, The Associated Press’ NAJIB JOBAIN, SAMY MAGDY and JOSEPH KRAUSS report. Washington also wants more time before the ground invasion to prepare for attacks on U.S. interests in the region from groups backed by Iran, U.S. officials told The New York Times. (Scroll down to The Complex for more on that). A third humanitarian aid envoy from Egypt today entered Gaza, where 2.3 million people have been running out of food, water and medicine after Israel blocked supply shipments from entering two weeks ago. Calls for Israel to mitigate civilian harm continued over the weekend. Also on Sunday, President JOE BIDEN and leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Britain called for Israel to adhere to international humanitarian law as it fights back against Hamas, Reuters’ ANDREA SHALAL and KANISHKA SINGH reported. With the future of Gaza’s governance hanging in the balance, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN confirmed that Israeli officials don’t want to take control of the territory again: “What I’ve heard from the Israelis is absolutely no intent, no desire, to be running Gaza themselves,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday night, adding that Hamas shouldn’t be in total control either. Read: How the Israel-Gaza conflict is unfolding in maps, graphics and videos by The Washington Post UKRAINE’S CIA TIES: Ukraine’s spy services have at times conducted complex operations against Russia that have surprised the world. That’s likely possible because of their deep ties with the CIA. The missions, like the bombing of a Crimean bridge that connected Russian troops to the territory for example, involved elite teams of Ukrainian spies that have been equipped by and worked closely over the past decade with the CIA, current and former Ukrainian and U.S. officials told The Washington Post’s GREG MILLER and ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN. The American spy agency has spent tens of millions of dollars since 2015 beefing up Ukraine’s capabilities to counter Russia, the officials said. That includes providing advanced surveillance systems, training recruits both in the U.S. and Ukraine, and sharing massive amounts of intelligence. HERE XI COMES? Chinese President XI JINPING appears to be ramping up Beijing’s charm offensive ahead of what could be his first trip to the United States in six-and-a-half years, The Wall Street Journal’s JAMES AREDDY reports. Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI is expected to make a trip to Washington this week for summit-preparation meetings with Blinken, people briefed on the plans told WSJ. Several prominent Chinese cultural icons, like former basketball player YAO MING, are also set to arrive in New York for public engagements this week. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | BIDEN ‘BROKE MY HEART’: Biden’s steadfast support for Israel since the Hamas attacks has seemingly locked in Jewish voters’ support for him ahead of reelection. But he may be losing the backing of Arab Americans, Muslims and their progressive allies, our own HOLLY OTTERBEIN reports. “The man broke my heart,” said MAYSOON ZAYID, a Palestinian American comedian who worked to get Biden elected in 2020, but now says she won’t vote for him. Biden has condemned Islamophobia and expressed sympathy for Palestinian civilians, but he has expressed unwavering support for Israel as the nation retaliates against Hamas. “I never in my life thought the empathizer-in-chief would sound the way he did. The Palestinians were given no humanity,” Zayid added. In more than a dozen interviews with Holly, Arab American and Muslim leaders and their allies said they are afraid some voters will sit the election out altogether or vote for a third-party candidate. ICYMI — Ramaswamy: Israel should provide post-Gaza invasion plan to assure further U.S. aid by Alex
| | | | JOIN 10/25 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF GRID RELIABILITY: The EPA’s proposed standards for coal and new natural gas fired power plants have implications for the future of the electric grid. These rules may lead to changes in the power generation mix—shifting to more renewable sources in favor of fossil-fuel plants. Join POLITICO on Oct. 25 for a deep-dive conversation on what it will take to ensure a reliable electric grid for the future. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | | | | FIVE GUYS, 10 EYES: Leaders of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance warned that China represents the "defining threat of this generation,” and called its efforts to steal intellectual property “unprecedented in human history,” our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity report. "We're talking everything from Fortune 100 companies, all to smaller startups," FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY said on CBS’ 60 Minutes on Sunday night. "We're talking about agriculture, biotech, health care, robotics, aviation, academic research." It was the first time the alliance, made up of intel agency heads from the U.S., United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, ever sat together for a joint interview. Wray and others pointed to the Chinese government’s gargantuan efforts to steal IP, trade secrets and personal data from American companies and universities, adding that the FBI has “somewhere in the order of 2,000 active investigations” into Chinese espionage. While the House attempts to find a speaker, Democratic members of the China Select Committee sent a letter today to the director of National Intelligence and the CIA director requesting a classified briefing on how Beijing and other adversaries are looking to capitalize on the vacant position. NO AMOUNT OF MONEY: The U.S. government is vulnerable to crippling attacks that could disrupt essential services and undermine national security no matter how much money you throw at it, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The 97-page report was six months in the making — compiled by a task force of former senior government officials, cyber experts and private sector executives, our pals at Weekly Cybersecurity also report. The report’s big takeaway is that, despite decades of government efforts to bolster its cyber defenses, CISA isn’t going to be good enough to crush growing sentiment that state and other cyber bad guys see opportunities to hold the U.S. hostage online. Read: Conservatives are increasingly knives out for the nation’s top cyber agency by our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS
| | MIDDLE EAST MEASURES: The Pentagon ratcheted up its rhetoric against Iran today, saying it will hold Tehran ultimately responsible for a spate of recent drone and rocket attacks on American troops in the Middle East, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports. While the Pentagon doesn’t have info that the government of Iran “explicitly ordered” the attacks on U.S. forces in the past week, the groups responsible for the incidents are backed by Tehran, DOD spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER told reporters today. A number of U.S. troops were injured during the attacks, which spanned several days and bases in Iraq and Syria, and an American contractor died of a cardiac episode while running from a false alarm at al Asad air base in Iraq. “By virtue of the fact that they are supported by Iran, we will ultimately hold Iran responsible,” Ryder said. NSD: UKRAINE F-16 TRAINING: A small number of Ukrainian pilots is now expected to start training on F-16 fighter jets on Tuesday at Morris Air National Guard Base in Arizona, two U.S. officials told Lara. The pilots moved to Morris after wrapping up an English language course at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas, and will be in Arizona for the next several months to learn how to fly the aircraft.
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | TRICKY TRIO: A trio of Democratic senators from GOP states who are up for reelection next year criticized Biden’s handling of the border and indicated they may sign onto Republican-pushed legislation to freeze $6 billion in Iranian assets, our own BURGESS EVERETT and URSULA PERANO report. Sen. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) said both Biden and former President Donald Trump “have failed to secure the border well enough,” comments that both Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and Sens. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) agreed with. “The prisoner swap, the $6 billion, I never was for that,” Manchin said. He had a warning for his colleagues: “If Democrats don’t get serious about border security, they’re screwed. They’re screwing themselves.” While senators might typically face significant heat to back party priorities, all three are free to chart their own course as Senate Democrats can only afford to lose one seat next year and still keep their majority. Read: Biden has a new message about the war. There’s an America First twist by our own JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN
| | NYT OOPS: The New York Times walked back its initial coverage on the explosion that killed hundreds of Palestinians at a Gaza Strip hospital last week, saying in an editors' note that the newspaper “relied too heavily on claims” made by Hamas, your anchor reports. Soon after a huge blast rocked the al-Ahli Hospital on Tuesday, finger-pointing over its source began. Hamas called the blast a “horrific massacre” and blamed the Israeli government. Israel, however, blamed the Islamic Jihad, a smaller, more radical group that often works with Hamas. Several news outlets, including The Times, Reuters and The Associated Press faced criticism for publishing Hamas’ viewpoint prominently in articles and on social media. “The Times’s initial accounts attributed the claim of Israeli responsibility to Palestinian officials, and noted that the Israeli military said it was investigating the blast,” reads the Times’ editors' note published today. Early coverage “relied too heavily on claims by Hamas, and did not make clear that those claims could not immediately be verified.”
| | — ASHLEY TOWNSHEND, a senior fellow for Indo-Pacific security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, announced that the Australian Defense Department is bringing him on as an assistant secretary. — NOELLE SORICH-CARTER is now special assistant to the chief of staff of the Office of the Administrator at USAID. She most recently was special assistant to the under secretary for policy at DHS.
| | — COLIN CLARKE, The New York Times: Why the world is watching Iran — NELLY LAHOUD, Foreign Affairs: A catastrophic success for Hamas? — Retired Rear Adm. MARK MONTGOMERY and BRADLEY BOWMAN, DefenseNews: Here’s how to fix the supplemental’s shortcomings on Taiwan
| | | |   | | | | | — POLITICO, 8:30 a.m.: Chips Update: Fabs, feds, and the future of the industry, focusing on the semiconductor supply chain and manufacturing base — The Wilson Center's Science and Technology Innovation Program, 10 a.m.: Looking deeper: reshoring and the semiconductor workforce — The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Red lines and shifting rules of engagement: the prospects of a Hezbollah-Israel war — The National Endowment for Democracy, 10 a.m.: Setting democratic ground rules for artificial intelligence — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: The Coast Guard's vital role in the Indo-Pacific — The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: Instability in the Sahel and West Africa: implications for U.S. policy — The United States Institute of Peace, 11 a.m.: How creative diplomacy prevented an oil disaster on Yemen's coast — Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies, 1 p.m.: Book discussion on “The Islamic State in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Strategic Alliances and Rivalries” — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 1 p.m.: Enabling naval spectrum dominance with 5G technology — The House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: Friend and ally: U.S. support for Israel after Hamas' barbaric attack — The Brookings Institution, 3 p.m.: Implementing the 2022 National Defense Strategy — The Hudson Institute, 4 p.m.: Discussion with Republican Presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY about his vision for the defense of the American homeland, including how that vision applies in the Middle East, part of the "Presidential Speech Series." Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wishes she could make us teleport far, far away. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would follow us wherever we go.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Using Artificial Intelligence to help firefighters better detect, predict and fight wildfires.
Lockheed Martin is collaborating with commercial companies to integrate our technologies and expertise with their capabilities to help first responders detect, predict and fight wildfires. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
