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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  A Palestinian man walks in the rubble of destroyed buildings in Gaza City on Nov. 29, 2023, the sixth day of the temporary ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. | Mohammed Hajjar/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman The Biden administration doesn’t want Israel to advance its military operation into southern Gaza until it has accounted for all displaced Palestinians in the enclave, the White House said. The statement, delivered by National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY on Tuesday evening, is the latest call by the U.S. for Israel to minimize civilian harm as it retaliates against Hamas. An estimated 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza — or nearly 80 percent of the population — have been internally displaced, because they either heeded Israel’s demand to leave the northern section before the campaign started or Israel’s widespread bombing left them with no place to live. The United Nations reports that 46,000 homes have been destroyed with another 234,000 housing units damaged — about 60 percent of Gaza’s housing stock. Now, as Israel prepares to send troops southward once it clears and holds areas in Gaza’s north, the U.S. revealed what it’s been telling the Middle Eastern ally behind closed doors. “We don’t support southern operations unless or until the Israelis can show that they have accounted for all the internally displaced people of Gaza,” Kirby told reporters aboard Air Force One as President JOE BIDEN made his way to Colorado yesterday. The Israelis, he continued, have “been receptive to that message.” Kirby also reiterated that the U.S. doesn’t want Palestinians in Gaza moved outside of the strip, as some Israeli ministers have suggested. We spoke to a senior administration official to give us a little more on the announcement, so we granted this person anonymity to detail sensitive internal thinking. The U.S. and Israel have been engaged in weeks-long conversations about future operations in Gaza’s south, the official said, though it’s unclear when Israel will kick off that campaign. “We’re going into this looking forward, looking ahead,” the official said. “Our advice to Israel has been: be surgical, be targeted, be precise, try to minimize and prevent civilian casualties wherever possible.” However, no one we spoke to could detail what Israel needed to “show” the U.S. before Washington would give implicit approval for the next phase of the anti-Hamas operation. Israel proposed a single “safe zone” in the area, moving all the displaced Palestinians there so military operations could proceed unhindered elsewhere in southern Gaza. But U.S. officials, the U.N. and outside organizations said that wasn’t feasible, and instead urged Israel to use a scalpel, not a hammer, when hitting legitimate military targets in southern Gaza. “The U.S. and Israel are on the same page,” said DAVID MAKOVSKY, who leads U.S.-Israel work at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and is in touch with White House officials. “I don't see Israel going kicking and screaming here.” An Israeli official, granted anonymity to discuss closed-door diplomacy, said “Israel and the U.S. administration are in close dialogue on many fronts, including the need to apply pressure on Hamas after the pause and the need for humanitarian aid to the civilian population in Gaza. In these discussions, Israel is very attentive to the U.S. perspective.” The U.S.-prescribed approach is unlikely to comfort many on either side of the political spectrum. Progressives and Democrats want to lengthen the current cease-fire — some for an indefinite period — and are wary that Israeli forces won’t again strike established safe zones in Gaza. Meanwhile, opponents of Biden’s Middle East policy rage against the administration’s stance, saying it would inevitably help Hamas and that the restrictions on Israel were unworkable. “This is a quixotic and impossible standard to meet and Israel should ignore it entirely,” tweeted GABRIEL NORONHA, a State Department official in the Trump administration. Either way, MICK MULROY, who led the Pentagon’s Middle East portfolio also in the Trump years, noted the tougher conditions that Palestinians will face as the winter season approaches. “There should be an increase in cold weather shelters and clothing as over 1 million people are now believed to be displaced and without shelter in Gaza,” he told NatSec Daily.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | NO CONDITIONS FOR ISRAEL: Last week, Biden suggested that conditioning future military aid to Israel was a “worthwhile thought.” But days later, administration officials are shutting down any talk of that happening. Three U.S. officials told Alex and JONATHAN LEMIRE that Biden won’t restrict support for Israel any time soon. “It’s not something we’re currently pursuing,” said one of the officials. Another official suggested that Biden’s aside, made in response to a reporter’s question, was less about siding with progressive sentiment and more a window into his private frustrations with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. Biden has long been privately critical of “Bibi,” and he groused to confidants over Thanksgiving that the prime minister could be a challenging partner, according to another of the officials. Biden believed that Netanyahu hasn’t always focused on the hostages and his quip about the aid likely reflected concerns about Netanyahu’s leadership going forward. The remark leaves some strategic ambiguity that the administration might shift on aid down the line — serving as a way for Biden to keep Netanyahu in check. ‘BUY AMERICAN’ BENEFITS: Battleground states Pennsylvania and Arizona are reaping billions of dollars from Washington’s efforts to arm Ukraine, according to a graphic the Biden administration has circulated on Capitol Hill and obtained by our own LARA SELIGMAN, CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD. According to the map, Pennsylvania has received $2.364 billion in investments to build munitions and tactical vehicles for Ukraine, the most of any state. Meanwhile, Arizona is a close second with $2.259 billion. Texas and Arkansas received $1.449 billion and $1.478 billion, respectively, while Florida got $1.011 billion. In total, the states have seen more than $27 billion in investments from arming Ukraine, according to the graphic, the existence of which was first reported by Reuters. The circulation of the graphic is part of the administration’s push to sell the American public — and their congressional representatives — on Biden’s proposal to spend billions of additional taxpayer dollars on the wars in Ukraine and Israel. ASSUAGING UKRAINE’S CONCERNS: Western diplomats who met in Brussels today vowed to continue supporting Ukraine despite dwindling military assistance and worries about the Israel-Hamas war taking attention away from Kyiv. “Some are questioning whether the United States and other NATO allies should continue to stand with Ukraine as we enter the second winter of [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN’s brutality,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said, per a release. “But the answer here today at NATO is clear, and it’s unwavering. We must and we will continue to support ensuring that Russia’s war of aggression remains a strategic failure.” Worries about continued assistance have been exacerbated as Congress stalls in passing Biden’s request for $61.4 billion in additional military and economic support for Kyiv. Blinken said he’s confident it’ll be approved. There’s also high hopes for Ukraine’s EU bid. The country has fulfilled “almost” all the requirements set out by the bloc to start accession talks, ahead of a pivotal European Council summit in December, European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN said at a POLITICO event Tuesday. “To see the deep and structural reforms that Ukraine is doing while fighting an existential war is to me deeply impressing,” von der Leyen said. ASSASSINATION PLOT THICKENS: U.S. prosecutors alleged today that an Indian government employee ordered the assassination of a Sikh separatist in New York City in May, according to a new indictment. The government employee, who wasn't named in the indictment, allegedly recruited Indian national NIKHIL GUPTA to pay a hitman to kill the separatist. Drug Enforcement Administration authorities foiled the plot in June, according to the indictment. “Senior Biden administration officials say the target was GURPATWANT SINGH PANNUN, general counsel for the New York-based Sikhs for Justice, a group that advocates the creation of an independent Sikh state called Khalistan within India,” The Washington Post’s ELLEN NAKASHIMA, GERRY SHIH and AMANDA COLETTA report. The White House was so concerned about the matter that it sent CIA Director BILL BURNS and Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES to India in August and October respectively, to demand that the Indian government investigate, the officials told the Post. When the White House learned that the government employee was credibly accused of the plot, “we took this information very seriously and engaged in direct conversations with the Indian government at the highest levels to express our concern,” NSC spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON said in a statement. “The government of India was clear with us that they were taking this seriously and would investigate.” In September, Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU said his country had evidence of New Delhi playing a part in killing a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil, causing tensions between the two countries to deteriorate. India has denied any connection to the killing. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | ABOUT THAT TWEET: The Biden campaign tweeted last night regarding the Israel-Hamas war that: “To continue down the path of terror, violence, killing, and war is to give Hamas what they seek. We can’t do that.” This phrasing had other social media users, including NatSec Daily, questioning whether the president was calling for a cease-fire, bowing to pressure from progressives pushing for a permanent end to the fighting. But a senior administration official, granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak for the campaign, noted “the president’s policy has not changed.” In fact, the tweet was a near copy-paste job from a speech Biden gave last week in which he defended a continuation of Israel’s retaliation in Gaza. The campaign borrowed from an address Biden delivered last Friday (when we were all in a Thanksgiving food-induced haze). Throughout the speech, which was arranged so Biden could comment on Hamas releasing hostages, Biden repeatedly defended Israel’s right to end Hamas’ reign in Gaza. “I’ve encouraged the prime minister to focus on trying to reduce the number of casualties while he is attempting to eliminate Hamas, which is a legitimate objective he has,” Biden said. Social media, as they say, is not real life. But the episode underscores the pitfalls of conveying full meaning with just a few characters, especially when words are lifted out of their context.
| | NO SPYING IN DEFENSE SPENDING: More than 50 lawmakers are urging congressional leaders to avoid linking a soon-to-expire surveillance program to a massive defense policy bill, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports. The letter — spearheaded by Reps. WARREN DAVIDSON (R-Ohio) and ZOE LOFGREN (D-Calif.) — comes as Congress has a matter of weeks before the end-of-the-year deadline to reauthorize the program, known as Section 702. The authority is meant to target the communications of foreigners abroad but has run into controversy because of its ability to sweep in Americans. “A temporary extension would be entirely unnecessary, and it would be an inexcusable violation of the public’s trust to quietly greenlight an authority that has been flagrantly abused,” Davidson, Lofgren and 52 other lawmakers wrote in the letter. TACKLING TIKTOK: Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wisc.), who chairs the Select Committee on China, warned today about TikTok’s influence on young voters ahead of the 2024 election. “The arguments that [TikTok] is for a lot of fun dance videos is increasingly tenuous. I mean, this is a news platform,” he told reporters in a press call. “That is what concerns me. Heading to an election as most people under the age of 30 are getting their news from TikTok, it could create absolute chaos.” He cited concerns about the app’s ties to China from top U.S. officials, including Burns, Haines and FBI chief CHRISTOPHER WRAY. “If praising Osama bin Laden's letter to America can trend, imagine all the crazy things that could trend on TikTok prior to the election,” he said, referencing videos about the al-Qaeda leader that went viral earlier this month. “That could just wreak total havoc in our democracy."
| | MOVEMENT ON PROMOTIONS? Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) said today that he’s considering dropping his months-long holds on military promotions “soon, but not today,” our own BURGESS EVERETT reports. Tuberville told Burgess that he and other Armed Services Committee members are “getting close” to a resolution. The senator is aiming to get some resolution before Christmas: “It’s been 10 months. I want to get this over with too, if we do it the right way.” DEADLY OSPREY CRASH: At least one person is dead after a U.S. military Osprey aircraft carrying eight people crashed in the Sea of Japan today. The plane crashed near the Japanese island of Yakushima. One person was declared dead after being found near the wreckage unconscious. No more details are yet available about the other people on board. HIROYUKI MIYAZAWA, Japan’s vice defense minister, didn’t call the incident a crash. “The U.S. side explained to us that the pilot did his best until the very end, so we’re using the term ‘emergency water landing,’” he told reporters today, per NBC News. BACKING BIDEN’S REQUEST: An influential defense trade group lined up behind the Biden administration’s effort to pass a $106 billion supplemental bill that would cover Ukraine, Israel and U.S. border security by the end of the year. "Enacting supplemental funding for Ukraine, Israel, and other security efforts must be one of Congress’ top priorities between now and the end of the year,” Aerospace Industries Association President and CEO ERIC FANNING said in a statement today, first reported by our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!). The supplemental will include critical funding for the defense industrial base that will make up for years of underinvestment in modernizing and expanding production lines. “The current state of the defense industrial base was shaped by years of policy and investment, and this supplemental won’t fix things overnight,” Fanning wrote. “But it will demonstrate our commitment to global and national security, both now and in the future, and will put the country on stronger footing in the face of growing global threats.”
| | | | GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | BORDER BATTLE: On that note, a Republican at the center of the House fight over renewing Ukraine aid is making his case for a slimmed-down funding package that can win GOP support. Rep. MIKE GARCIA (R-Calif.) laid out the potential solution in a new memo obtained by our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and plans to circulate it among House Republicans. The proposal focuses primarily on military aid that can deliver a "knock-out punch" in the fight with Russia and simultaneously address GOP concerns about the conflict's endgame, as well as the $61.4 billion price tag of Biden's latest Ukraine proposal. "When they see this, I think they're going to be amenable to the answers I'm providing here," Garcia said in an interview. "They know $61 billion is not the right number." In the Senate, a growing number of Democrats appear open to making it harder for migrants to seek asylum in order to secure Republican support for aiding Ukraine and Israel, our own JENNIFER HABERKORN and Burgess reported Tuesday night. They are motivated not just by concern for America’s embattled allies. They also believe changes are needed to help a migration crisis that is growing more dire and to potentially dull the political sting of border politics in battleground states before the 2024 elections. “Look, I think the border needs some attention. I am one that thinks it doesn’t hurt,” said Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), adding that he’s eager to see if a bipartisan group of negotiators can come up with an agreement on a policy issue as elusive as immigration. While he refused to commit to supporting a deal until he sees its details, he didn’t rule out backing stronger border requirements. Read: Inside the left’s border backlash by our own RYAN LIZZA. CEASE-FIRE CALL: Sen. PETER WELCH (D-Vt.) became the third senator to explicitly call for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. “I believe that continuing, the status quo, the cease-fire, creates opportunities for a better resolution than will come out of endless bombing,” Welch told the VTDigger’s SARAH MEARHOFF on Tuesday. In a statement Tuesday night, Welch said he supports Israel’s retaliation against Hamas generally, but warned of the high Palestinian death toll and damage to infrastructure in Gaza caused by Israel’s operation: “This will only incite more enemies against Israel and the U.S. For this reason, the ceasefire must be extended indefinitely. Read: Activists wanted a Middle East cease-fire. They got something else from Dems by our own NICHOLAS WU and URSULA PERANO.
| | RUSSIA’S LOYALTY LAW: Moscow is considering a new law that would require foreigners visiting the country to sign an agreement restricting their speech about the government and its social values, The WSJ’s ANN SIMMONS reports. Visitors wouldn’t be allowed to criticize government officials or authorities, contradict Soviet military history or ridicule the nation’s “spiritual and moral values,” Russian state media reported. The legislation would be the latest clampdown on foreigners’ rights in Russia, which have come under increased scrutiny since Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH was detained in March and WNBA basketball star BRITTNEY GRINER’s detention prior to a prisoner release deal.
| | | |   | | | | | — MIRANDA SUMMERS LOWE is now director for cyber and emerging technologies at the National Security Council. She most recently was legislative liaison for the National Guard Bureau.
| | — Sen. CHUCK SCHUMER, The New York Times: What American Jews fear most — DAVE LAWLER, Axios: China’s push for influence in Micronesia tests U.S. power in the Pacific — DAHLIA SCHEINDLIN, Foreign Affairs: Why Israel won’t change
| | — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: New digital dilemmas: resisting autocrats, navigating geopolitics, confronting platforms — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: North Korea: Russia and space satellite — The Brookings Institution, 9:30 a.m.: Israel and Gaza: Where do we go from here? — The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, 10 a.m.: Opportunities and challenges associated with advanced nuclear reactor commercialization — The Arab Center, 10 a.m.: Assessing America's response to the Gaza crisis: The White House, Congress and the American public — The SETA Foundation, 12 p.m.: Israel's war in Gaza: The humanitarian crisis and prospects for peace — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12 p.m.: Navigating discourses on Israel and Palestine: civic space, expression, and dialogue in challenging times — The Heritage Foundation, 2 p.m.: The Strategic Posture Commission: Defending America in a modern world — The Middle East Institute, 2 p.m.: Shabiha Forever: The Syrian regime's creation, control and use of militias since 2011 — The Common Good, 4 p.m.: Discussion on Israel and Palestine with former Middle East envoy DENNIS ROSS Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who takes everything we say and do out of context. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is so clear he’s transparent.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
