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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Israel called for residents in southern Gaza to evacuate their homes today as the Israeli military begins to expand its ground operation into the territory. | Fatima Shbair/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman The Biden administration’s patience with how Israel is retaliating against Hamas seems to be wearing thin –– just as the ally’s military operation has spread to the whole of Gaza. Israel faces a “strategic defeat” if it doesn’t reduce civilian harm in the enclave, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN warned. “The lesson is not that you can win in urban warfare by protecting civilians,” the former commander of troops in the Middle East said Saturday at the Reagan National Defense Forum. “The lesson is that you can only win in urban warfare by protecting civilians.” That same day, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, speaking in the United Arab Emirates, stated that “too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. Frankly, the scale of civilian suffering and the images and videos coming from Gaza are devastating.” She continued: “As Israel pursues its military objectives in Gaza, we believe Israel must do more to protect innocent civilians.” U.S. officials say such comments aren’t an expression of mounting frustration. Instead, in the words of one official granted anonymity to detail internal thinking, “it is more an opportunity to send a clear message now that the truce has fallen apart. We want to make sure that the type of heavy casualties we saw in the north are not repeated.” Critics contend that the administration has so far emphasized humanitarian needs without doing enough to restrain Israel’s campaign. To date, more than 15,000 Palestinians have been killed, with Gaza’s Hamas-controlled health ministries claiming most were innocent women and children. The U.S. still supports Israel’s goal of militarily defeating Hamas, but now wants Israel to shift course, particularly as operations move into the enclave’s south where many of the territory’s 2.3 million fled to escape fighting in the north. The administration made clear last week it didn’t want Israel to barge into cities like Khan Younis or Rafah without first accounting for Gaza’s 1.8 million displaced people. The administration’s tougher line with Israel has lawmakers calling out top U.S. officials. Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), for example, said he had lost all confidence in Austin. “Strategic defeat would be inflaming the Palestinians? They’re already inflamed,” the lawmaker said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “They’re taught from the time they’re born to hate the Jews and to kill them. They’re taught math: If you have 10 Jews and kill six, how many would you have left?” The question now is if Israel will heed America’s advice. President JOE BIDEN last week told his Israeli counterpart, Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, that Israel can’t operate in the south as it did in the north. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told ABC News’ “This Week” Sunday show that Israel had been “receptive” to American messages about civilian-harm reduction. Israel called for residents in southern Gaza to evacuate their homes today as the Israeli military begins to expand its ground operation into the territory, The Associated Press’ WAFAA SHURAFA, SAMY MAGDY and JACK JEFFERY report. At least one of the towns Israel wants evacuated is where tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians had already fled to during the beginning of the offensive. With Israeli forces pushing deeper into the south, Palestinians must choose to stay in the military’s path or squeeze into an area less than a third of the whole territory.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | MARITIME TASK FORCE: National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters at the White House today that the U.S. is in talks with regional partners about establishing a maritime task force to ensure the safe passage of ships in the Red Sea. The U.S. ramped up its rhetoric against Houthi rebels over the weekend, warning that it was considering “all appropriate responses” after the militants attacked three commercial vessels in the Red Sea on Sunday, our own LARA SELIGMAN reported. Iran, Sullivan said, was the “ultimate party responsible” for the attacks. Following the attacks, a U.S. warship operating nearby responded to the distress calls from the commercial ships, shooting down three aerial drones over the course of the day, U.S. Central Command said in a statement. DOD officials said they didn’t believe the militants were targeting the U.S. warship, but the string of attacks on the commercial vessels “represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security,” Central Command said. “The United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners,” according to the statement. OSPREY CRASH UPDATE: The bodies of five crew members from the Osprey aircraft that crashed near Japan last week were found by divers today, the U.S. Air Force said. Two crew members are still unaccounted for, and one of the crew members killed was found Wednesday, The New York Times’ HIKARI HIDA and JOHN YOON report. On Saturday, Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), a Senate Armed Services Committee member, expressed her condolences to one of the members killed who was from Massachusetts and asked the military how the crash could have happened. ENCOUNTERING THE OFFENSIVE: The Washington Post has two major stories today about U.S.-Ukraine differences in the lead up to the counteroffensive and how the fighting led to the stalemate. They’re both long and worth your time, but below are some highlights: Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine:
- “Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.”
- “The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and training.”
In Ukraine, a war of incremental gains as counteroffensive stalls:
- “Seventy percent of troops in one of the brigades leading the counteroffensive, and equipped with the newest Western weapons, entered battle with no combat experience.”
- “The commander of U.S. forces in Europe couldn’t get in touch with Ukraine’s top commander for weeks in the early part of the campaign amid tension over the American’s second-guessing of battlefield decisions.”
LEAKS EN ESPAÑOL?: “A Madrid judge has opened an investigation into several agents of Spain's National Intelligence Center for an alleged leak of secret information to the United States,” The Associated Press reports. El País, a Spanish newspaper, reports two agents have been arrested. Sullivan declined to comment on the report from the White House podium. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | NATO WE GO GO: The Atlantic’s ANNE APPLEBAUM is convinced that if President DONALD TRUMP gets a second term, he will seek to withdraw the U.S. from NATO — prompting a Constitutional crisis. “Senate approval is required for U.S. treaties—but the Constitution says nothing about congressional approval for withdrawal from treaties,” she wrote Monday for the magazine’s project on what Trump 2.0 would look like. “A public-relations crisis would unfold too. A wide range of people — former supreme allied commanders, former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, former presidents, foreign heads of state — will surely rally to make the case for NATO, and very loudly.” The damage will have been done following Trump’s announcement, Applebaum argues, because it would signal to the world that the U.S. –– NATO’s backbone –– isn’t committed anymore. We contacted Trump’s campaign about whether he intends to pull the U.S. from the decadeslong alliance but didn’t hear back before publication. BURGUM OUT: North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM has dropped out of the presidential race, taking with him his China-centric foreign policy focus out of the Republican primaries. Burgum believed that the U.S. was already in a Cold War with China and needed to restructure its foreign policy to match that reality. The problem for Burgum on that front, though, was that every candidate is hawkish on China, so it didn’t help him stand out as a potential commander in chief.
| | | | U.S. WARNS ON TAIWAN ELECTION DISINFO: The U.S. diplomatic outpost in Taiwan warned today of the threat of “cyberattacks and online information manipulation” to the island’s Jan. 13 presidential election, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. “Foreign actors seek to use social media and emerging technologies to manipulate public discourse, divide the public, sow discord, influence our elections and essentially undermine confidence in our democratic institutions,” SANDRA OUDKIRK, Taipei-based director of the American Institute in Taiwan, said in a speech, without explicitly naming the threats. “We believe it is for Taiwan voters to decide their next leader, free from outside interference,” Oudkirk added. Taiwan’s authorities are bracing for the possibility that Beijing will try “manipulating opinion polls and issuing them to interfere in the elections," a senior Taiwan security official warned last month, per Reuters.
| | CHA-CHING: Defense contractors in South Korea, Turkey and Israel are reaping many of the early deals that have come from the West’s continued support for Ukraine, our own JOSHUA POSANER, LUCIA MACKENZIE and JAN CIENSKI report. Here’s the rundown according to the latest analysis of weapon sales and military services revenue from the world’s top 100 contractors carried out by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute:
- Turkey’s four largest defense companies saw their 2022 revenue rise 22 percent to $5.5 billion compared to 2021, with the standout being drone-maker Baykar.
- The aggregate arms revenue of the three Israeli companies in the SIPRI ranking reached $12.4 billion in 2022, a 7 percent increase from 2021.
- The combined arms revenue of the four South Korean companies in the ranking fell by 1 percent, primarily due to a 9 percent drop recorded by the country’s biggest arms producer, Hanwha Aerospace; but South Korean companies are likely to see a surge in revenue this year due to huge orders with Poland and the United Arab Emirates.
BIG SHORTFALL, INNIT? The British military is $21.6 billion short of the money it needs to secure new weapons and equipment over the next decade, according to a public spending watchdog report released today. The National Audit Office estimated that new supplies will cost the U.K. military about $386 billion over the next 10 years. The $22 billion budget deficit is the largest the report has found since 2012, Reuters’ SARAH YOUNG reports. The issue has mostly been caused by high inflation and rising costs to Britain’s nuclear and naval programs, the report said.
| | | | GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | EMPTY POCKETS: The White House warned lawmakers today that Kyiv’s battlefield gains against Russia are at risk without more money as Congress runs out of time to approve more assistance, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. In letters to party leaders in the House and Senate, White House budget chief SHALANDA YOUNG warned that inaction before the end of the year on a new round of funding threatens to “kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield.” “Without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks,” Young wrote in identical letters sent to Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL. She continued: “There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money — and nearly out of time.” A major holdup in lawmakers’ discussions is the border: Negotiations between Senate Democrats and Republicans to tighten southern border security in exchange for signing off on Ukraine aid have fallen apart, Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) told our own JENNIFER HABERKORN. NDAA OPPO: Conservative advocacy group Heritage Action for America is warning lawmakers it will oppose passage of the NDAA if the forthcoming compromise doesn't block the Pentagon's abortion travel policy, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) scoop. In a statement today, Executive Vice President RYAN WALKER argued that Biden's policy has turned the Pentagon into "an abortion travel agency," adding that "conservatives cannot vote for legislation that lets him off the hook." "We cannot defeat our enemies abroad as long as the military is used to fight Biden’s political battles at home," Walker added. "For the first time in nearly a decade, Heritage Action will oppose final passage of the NDAA if lawmakers fail to include language to repeal the Pentagon’s illegal and immoral abortion policy." 702 ON THE AGENDA: A revised Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — the controversial surveillance program that’s set to expire in just a few weeks — would require a warrant to search for any American’s information, according to draft text obtained by our own JORDAIN CARNEY. The program is meant to target foreigners abroad, but in the process, it sweeps in citizens’ communications. The current program does not require a warrant when that occurs.
| | | |   | | | | | ‘BIGGEST THREAT WE’VE EVER HAD’: Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO reiterated the administration’s goal of restricting the most advanced chips from reaching China over the weekend, prompting a clapback from Beijing. “The U.S. should stick to the right perception and work with China to deliver on the common understandings reached in the San Francisco meeting,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN said Monday, per Bloomberg News, referencing Biden’s meeting last month with Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING. The Biden administration should “stop seeing China as a hypothetical enemy and saying one thing but doing another.” Raimondo used her appearance at the Reagan National Defense Forum to push for more funding to stop advanced tech from reaching the Chinese market — and military — because China is “the biggest threat we’ve ever had.” China wants that practice to end. “The violation of the rules and regulations of the free-trade market is just like building a dam with a sieve,” said Wang, urging the U.S. to end its Cold War mindset. “No matter how hard you try, the water will just flow through it.” AMBASSADOR… OR SPY? Former U.S. Ambassador to Bolivia MANUEL ROCHA was charged today with serving as a spy for Cuba while holding the U.S. post, our own LAWRENCE UKENYE reports. The charges were levied following a long-running FBI counterintelligence investigation. He has engaged in “clandestine activity” on Havana’s behalf for at least five decades, court papers said, meeting with Cuban officials and giving false info to the U.S. government. Rocha began serving on the National Security Council in 1994 and as the U.S. ambassador to Bolivia between 2000 and 2002.
| | | | — ELISA BRAUN, GIAN VOLPICELLI and EDDY WAX, POLITICO: The Qatargate Files: Hundreds of leaked documents reveal scale of EU corruption scandal — ALEX DE WAAL and ABDUL MOHAMMED, The New York Times: The war the world forgot — SVETLANA TIKHANOVSKAYA, The Washington Post: For democracy to return to Belarus, it will need U.S. help
| | — The House Foreign Affairs Europe Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: The future of freedom and democracy in Belarus — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: Ukraine's peace formula for a just and lasting peace — The Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center's Transatlantic Security Initiative and the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, 11 a.m.: Sweden's future in NATO and Europe's evolving security architecture with Defense Minister PÅL JONSON — The House Foreign Affairs Africa Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: The Sahel in crisis: examining U.S. policy options — The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 5 p.m.: Woman, life, freedom: the role of unity in advancing democracy for Iran Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, in whom we’ve never had confidence. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who makes James Dean seem jittery.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
