CONFLICTING GAZA HOSPITAL REPORTS: In November, Israel’s military raided Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza, claiming that Hamas had been using it as a headquarters to launch attacks. But conflicting reports in American media tell different stories about the operation, which drew international scrutiny. American spy agencies believe Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad militant group commanded forces and held hostages in the Al-Shifa Hospital, per a U.S. official citing declassified intelligence: “We have information that continues to support our conclusion that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad used the Al-Shifa hospital complex and sites beneath it to house command infrastructure, exercise certain command and control activities, store some weapons, and hold at least a few hostages. “We have information — obtained after the November 15 IDF operation — that Hamas members located at the hospital had largely evacuated days earlier as the IDF approached the Al-Shifa complex and that Hamas destroyed documents and electronics at the complex in advance of the IDF’s operation,” the official continued. “The U.S. intelligence community is confident in its judgment on this topic and has independently corroborated information.” The New York Times’ JULIAN BARNES was first to report on the intelligence this week. But in December, an in-depth Washington Post analysis found that “evidence presented by the Israeli government falls short of showing that Hamas had been using the hospital as a command and control center.” This raised questions about whether the civilian harm caused by Israel’s operation was proportionate to the assessed threat. The Times notes the Post’s reporting, but emphasized that U.S. officials still believe the hospital was used by Hamas. The declassified intel represents the most current American assessment, officials told the Times. “While the spy agencies provided no visual evidence, a U.S. official said they were confident in their assessment because it was based on information collected by Israel and America’s own intelligence, gathered independently,” the Times wrote. ISRAEL MILITARY SHIFT: The Biden administration sees Israel’s withdrawal of thousands of troops from Gaza as a sign it’s listening to Washington and shifting to lower-intensity military operations, Alex and LARA SELIGMAN report, though the transition is going slower than the U.S. would like. The Israeli military confirmed on Monday that it was beginning to withdraw five brigades from operations in Gaza, including many reservists, citing the growing toll of the deployments on Israel’s economy. U.S. officials, who were granted anonymity to speak about sensitive discussions, are now breathing small sighs of relief. They view the reduction as a signal that Israel is beginning to finally shift away from large-scale bombing and more toward targeted, surgical strikes on senior Hamas leaders — a move the U.S. has long been urging. “What we’re seeing is the beginning of a transition,” one U.S. official said. A second official added that the administration is pleased to see the shift but that the U.S. would have preferred the changes much sooner. HOSTAGE TALKS LIKELY DELAYED: The killing of top Hamas official SALEH AROURI in Beirut on Tuesday will likely set back talks to pause fighting between Israel and Hamas to exchange hostages, a senior U.S. official told The New York Times’ ERIC SCHMITT. Gaza’s Hamas leader YAHYA “SINWAR is feeling the noose tightening, and I don’t know if he’ll be willing to proceed with what was being negotiated,” the official told the Times. In his first speech since Arouri’s death, Hezbollah head HASSAN NASRALLAH made clear today that the group is not afraid of all-out war — but stopped short of vowing escalated attacks against Israel. Arouri’s killing outside of Palestinian territories has raised concerns about the war spreading throughout the region. Those fears continued today after two explosions at a commemoration for Iran’s former top general QASSEM SOLEIMANI killed more than 100 people, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. No one has claimed responsibility for that attack, or Tuesday’s strike in Beirut. Iranian officials called the explosions “terroristic.” The country has numerous adversaries who could be behind the attack, including exile groups, militant organizations and state actors. But the fact that it targeted an event for Soleimani — who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020 — could spark more anger toward the West. State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER told reporters today that the U.S. was not involved in the explosions and it has no information that would lead it to believe Israel was, either. Shortly thereafter, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY also said the U.S. had “no indication” that Israel was involved. “If it was Israel, it is unlikely that it was done in cooperation with the United States,” said MICK MULROY, formerly of the CIA and a top Pentagon official for the Middle East. “The U.S. policy has been to do everything possible to keep this war from expanding into a regional conflict. This action could challenge that policy as Iran will likely feel compelled to directly respond.” HOUTHIS BE WARNED: A group of Western countries including the United States today warned the Iran-backed Houthis against further attacks in the Red Sea, which have raised fears about fighting in the Middle East escalating, our own MATT HONEYCOMBE-FOSTER reports. “Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing. There is no lawful justification for intentionally targeting civilian shipping and naval vessels,” reads the statement by the U.S., Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand and the U.K. The coalition called for collective action to stop the attacks, outlining how they affect global trade through the waters. “The Houthis will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways.” POW EXCHANGE: Russia and Ukraine have exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war in a deal brokered by the United Arab Emirates, The Associated Press reports, the biggest single release of its kind since the war began. “Ukrainian authorities said that 230 Ukrainian prisoners of war returned home. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that 248 Russian servicemen have been freed from Ukrainian captivity,” per the AP. There have been other large exchanges throughout the nearly two-year war, a sign that the warring parties can make deals even as they strike one another following Russia’s invasion. Russia is attacking Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles while Ukraine is targeting the area around Belgorod, which is near the Ukraine border. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
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