Scientists have called it: The world has blown its shot at keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius — the line between really bad and really, really bad. A new report from the University of Hamburg concludes that keeping warming below 1.5 C is “currently not plausible,” though a less ambitious target of 2 C could still be within reach. But even that would require countries like the U.S. doubling down on efforts to cut carbon pollution and put them in motion yesterday, writes POLITICO’s E&E News reporter Chelsea Harvey. That’s not the message you’ll hear trumpeted by world leaders who — hesitant to declare the 1.5 C target a total failure — are pushing governments to do everything they can to cut their climate pollution. Yet as Chelsea wrote late last year, “many scientists privately believe the world has already hit the point of no return. And some say it’s time to make that message public.” What this means: If (or when) the world warms past 1.5 C above preindustrial levels, expect extremely hot days, large-scale drought, loss of entire ecosystems, species die-off, rising sea levels, food insecurity, loss of habitable land, forced migration and more extreme weather disasters — all of which increase annual fatalities and compromise public health. The world has already warmed by more than 1 C since preindustrial levels. Doubling that could bring planetary catastrophe.That’s why U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned during last year’s climate summit in Egypt that “we are getting dangerously close to the point of no return.” Still, dramatically and quickly slashing carbon pollution will reduce the severity of this reality. So what’s getting in the way? The report, known as the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, looked at factors that affect the world’s ability to meet the Paris climate accord’s target of keeping warming “well below” 2 C. These include direction from the U.N. regional initiatives, existing regulations, corporate responses, fossil fuel divestments and consumption patterns. While some of these are driving a reduction in greenhouse gases, not one is moving aggressively enough to achieve “deep decarbonization” by 2050, the report finds. And two factors are actively impairing the global effort: corporations and the amount of energy, food and other materials the world produces and consumes. “The majority of companies are still not responding adequately to support decarbonization,” the report found. Time to prepare: While the report stresses the need to more aggressively slash planet-warming pollution (it’s not all-or-nothing; every bit of emissions reduction helps), it also recommends that policymakers recognize that the world is warming — and take decisive actions to adapt to that change, such as fortifying vulnerable structures and planning for mass migration.
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