You may have read about an expected slowdown in an upcoming Biden administration auto pollution rule, and the questions it raises about pushing Americans to electric cars. But make no mistake: Achieving the president’s goals is going to require an all-out sprint. And analysts are divided over whether it’s possible. As I wrote this morning with my colleagues, the rule is expected to demand such steep cuts in car and light-duty truck pollution that the clearest way to achieve it would be by making electric vehicles the king of the road. By 2032, two of every three cars sold could be fully electric, the Environmental Protection Agency has estimated — a huge escalation from last year’s 9 percent. The idea of such a swift transformation in such a vital industry makes some people nervous, including auto workers in the key swing state of Michigan. The rule is technically agnostic on what technology carmakers use — they could also rely on hybrids — but the math is clear that fully electric models would do much of the work. In a new wrinkle, EPA is expected to make one concession to market reality by slowing its demands for automakers to cut their pollution before 2030 (but not afterward). Reaching the EV future that the administration envisions will still be a huge challenge, people studying the issue say. “I think that it's going to happen, but I don't want to give the impression that I think it's smooth sailing,” said Nick Nigro, founder of the electric vehicle research firm Atlas Public Policy. “Because it's definitely not. It's gonna be really hard.” Optimists think EVs will follow something called the “S-curve” — a phenomenon in which new technologies start out as niche products but eventually become ubiquitous. (Think smartphones.) Near-term growth trends for electric vehicle sales indicate they’re on the upswing of that curve, said Jesse Jenkins, a Princeton University professor who runs the Rapid Energy Policy Evaluation and Analysis Toolkit. Though sales dipped in the fourth quarter of 2023, year-over-year sales still grew 50 percent compared with 2022. That growth rate is expected to slow to between 30 and 44 percent annually through 2026 and settle in around 15 to 27 percent annual growth after that, through 2030, according to a report Jenkins’ group and others published Wednesday. “I'm feeling pretty good about the pace of the transition at the moment, despite all the bad vibes,” Jenkins said. But much has to go right. “While possible to achieve, reaching this level of electric vehicle penetration will challenge the limits of manufacturing, vehicle charging infrastructure, and consumer preferences,” Dan Klein, head of future energy pathways at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in an email about the “enormous challenge” of crossing even 60 percent new vehicle sales being electric. Consulting firm Wood Mackenzie is forecasting battery-powered vehicles will make up just 30 to 35 percent of new sales in 2032 — far below EPA’s projection. U.S. manufacturing capacity and materials availability — much of which China controls — will constrain production, senior research analyst Egor Prokhodstev said. Daan Walter, a principal with environmental think tank RMI, counters that forecasts have “consistently underestimated the speed of the global” electric vehicle transition. And industry has signaled an electric future: Companies like General Motors have committed to phase out internal combustion engine sales by 2035. The head of American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a refining trade association that opposes the EPA proposal, offered a simpler rationale for why this green future might not arrive: “Just because automakers must make these cars doesn’t mean consumers will buy them,” CEO Chet Thompson said.
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