THE GOP’S NEXT WEDGE ISSUE — The Republican Party has been branded as a collective of climate deniers and avoiders. It has only itself to blame, but that thinking is starting to shift. Can the change stick in today’s supercharged political environment? As more businesses, scientists and voters sound the alarm on climate change, a band of Republicans in Congress have come to the table with a message that they’re on board with solutions that are technology-agnostic (think carbon capture), fiscally responsible, and strong on national security. With Democrats, they could help the U.S. deliver on pledges made by President Joe Biden at the U.N. climate summit in Glasgow. But just as the GOP’s clean-energy champions find their footing, the party’s culture warriors, led by climate change skeptic Donald Trump, are prepping for midterm primary battles that could trip up the effort right out of the gate. The discord is a symptom of the GOP’s splintered constituencies: Culture warriors who vote in primaries versus chamber-of-commerce types who once were the party’s backbone. Wind farms, solar installments and green energy are big business, but anything smacking of environmentalism can set off the hippie-punching reflexes of a sizable piece of the primary base, said Mark Jones, a fellow at the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston. “Renewables have become a wedge issue, just like mask-wearing and abortion,” Jones said. Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), who launched the Conservative Climate Caucus in June, said 2021 has been a tipping point for many Republican lawmakers. “This is a crisis coming at us at 100 miles an hour,” Curtis told us. “Our silence has been interpreted as not caring.” Republicans helped pass the Energy Act of 2020, which extended tax breaks for renewables and aims to slash hydrofluorocarbons. The measure won praise from business groups, including the U.S. Chamber, but “none of us went home and bragged in our town hall meetings about what we had just done,” Curtis said. Translation: Clean-energy Republicans are afraid of their own base. “It’s almost like a mistress you keep hidden,” said a former Senate aide who requested anonymity to protect relationships on the Hill. “You don’t trot her out and show her off, especially when you talk to the more conservative audiences.” As business groups have shifted on climate, they need Republicans at the table to pass “consistent, durable policy” that can withstand shifting political winds, said Marty Durbin, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Global Energy Institute. “We’ve got to have enough of both sides to have a governing coalition,” Durbin said. “We’ve had too many wave elections in my opinion.” We’ll leave you with this: A poll from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found climate change to be one of the country’s most polarizing foreign policy issues. Only 16 percent of Republicans consider it a critical threat, compared to 82 percent of Democrats, according to the August survey. The 66-point difference is the largest gap since the council began asking the question in 2008. The gap widened because Democrats moved, said Dina Smeltz, a senior fellow at the council. Rank-and-file Republican opinions haven’t changed in years. “It’s always been a low priority for them,” Smeltz said. So for GOP lawmakers, “there’s no incentive for them to do anything about climate change if their constituents don’t care about it.” | 
