‘Garbage’ in? — Why it’s all about data — Nature Valley, VW, and Swiss Re

From: POLITICO's The Long Game - Tuesday Mar 16,2021 04:41 pm
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Mar 16, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Zack Colman, Lorraine Woellert and Catherine Boudreau

Presented by National Biodiesel Board

With Ryan Heath and Caitlyn Oprysko

THE BIG IDEA


Consultants and their algorithms have landed.

Consultants and their algorithms have arrived. | GDA via AP Images

BLACK BOXES—The rush to quantify the effects of climate change could be adding to the risks as a new breed of consultants emerges to pitch data to companies, governments and investors.

On the surface, the computerized projections might satisfy demands for fuller risk disclosure, but because many of the algorithms are shielded from public scrutiny, there’s no way to gauge their reliability. Governments, businesses and retirement fund managers could be lulled into a false sense of security.

“Do these guys know what they are doing? I’m not convinced that they do,” said Upmanu Lall , director of the Columbia Water Center at Columbia University, who has reviewed some firms’ methodologies. “Your models are garbage. And, unfortunately, that’s a problem.”

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Finance Agency and NASA have met with the data crunchers.

HUD hired Jupiter Intelligence as part of a $150,000 coastal modeling project. Rhodium Group, which publishes its methodology, received a $179,000 National Science Foundation grant. Big players are getting into the game, too, including Alphabet.

Some firms say their methodologies are available for inspection. "Our methodology is documented, shared with and discussed with any customer that wants that level of detail, and over and over again we pass scrutiny on the methodology," Jupiter Intelligence CEO Rich Sorkin said. "There's a big difference between black boxes and publicly disclosing to everyone in the world exactly how things are in the most detailed level."

Demand is growing as companies plan for climate change—and potential regulation. Oil giant BP, Hawaiian Electric, ConEd, CBRE Global Investors, and the cities of Miami and New York are among the industry’s clients.

“The market doesn't know what it’s asking for, which is a huge part of the problem," said Chris Sampson , co-founder and director of Fathom, a flood risk-modeling firm that published its methodology in a peer-reviewed science journal. "You've got providers trying to generate solutions when we’re not even sure what the question is to ask yet."

Read the full eye-opener from Zack.

 

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Sustainable Finance

DISCLOSURE IS COMING—Here’s more on why that data is such hot demand.

Gary Gensler, President Joe Biden’s pick to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission, is cooling his heels while the Senate dawdles on his confirmation vote. But Allison Herren Lee, the commission’s acting chair, is wasting no time setting the agenda.

On Monday, in the bluntest terms, Lee said the regulator will require companies to disclose climate risks and other ESG metrics, including political spending. She warned of enforcement actions and promised new power for shareholders.

Invoking 18th-century religious freedom fighters, the Civil Rights Act, the modern environmental movement, Covid-19, George Floyd and the Jan. 6 invasion of the U.S. Capitol, Lee said the barrier between social value and market value is breaking down.

“Human capital, human rights, climate change—these issues are fundamental to our markets,” she said at an event hosted by the left-leaning Center for American Progress.

“Investors are demanding more and better information on climate and ESG, and that demand is not being met by the current voluntary framework,” Lee said. “There are real questions about reliability and level of assurance for the disclosures that do exist.”

Here’s what Pat Toomey thinks: Lee’s agenda is “a total abuse of power and a politicization of SEC’s disclosure standard,” the Senate Banking Committee’s top Republican tweeted. “What matters is whether an issue is financially material to a reasonable investor, not if it conforms to the woke Left’s opinion about what’s best for humanity’s general welfare.” Toomey’s opening statement at Gensler’s hearing has more.

Where this battle will be won or lost: In court. Policy on ESG reporting must be rooted in the Supreme Court’s “well-established” concept of materiality, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said Monday.

“Disclosures should be used to protect investors and should not be used as a means to achieve policy goals outside the scope of the federal securities laws,” chamber executive Tom Quaadman wrote in a letter to the SEC . “The initiative appears to take an enforcement-first approach to ESG and climate change.”

The landscape is shifting, and quickly. Just last week, the green finance crowd was fretting that Gensler might let them down on mandatory disclosure. Lee’s speech should put those concerns to rest.

FACT— ESG investments jumped more than 140 percent in 2020 from the year before and now make up a third of all U.S. assets under management, Moody’s reports.

 

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YOU TELL US

What do you think? First, tell us at lwoellert@politico.com and cboudreau@politico.com. Then, tell the SEC. Here’s the link for public comment.

We totally missed Solar Appreciation Day. Nothing personal, folks. Did you know that U.S. solar power capacity is expected to nearly quadruple over the next decade? Subscribe to The Long Game for more fun factoids. ICYMI: The AFL-CIO wants Biden to stop imports of solar parts from Xinjiang.

 

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REALLY?


Nature Valley‘s new wrapper comes with lots of instructions

Nature Valley‘s new wrapper comes with lots of instructions. | Graphic: Business Wire via AP

HOW NOT TO RECYCLE—For a month, snack-maker Nature Valley has been touting new packaging on its Crunchy granola bars as recyclable at participating grocery stores.

Consumer backlash has been fierce. Their blue bins don’t accept the wrappers. There’s nothing to suggest that Americans—even granola lovers—want to deal with the added inconvenience. And even if people make the effort, there’s no evidence stores will take the wrappers.

“We are in a pandemic, so no, I’m not making another trip to the store,” tweeted one granola fan. “And I’m not hoarding wrappers until I do.”

Here’s the twist: Nature Valley admits the Crunchy wrapper is ahead of its time—in a bad way.

“Awareness of this type of recycling is very low in general, so we know we need to educate everywhere, including in stores themselves,” said Mollie Wulff, a spokesperson for General Mills, which owns the Nature Valley brand. “Awareness and education is a huge hurdle for store drop-off recycling, but it’s not one we’re shying away from.”

Nature Valley’s PR push includes educating consumers about a label from How2Recycle, a project of the Sustainable Food Packaging Coalition, which counts environmental groups, chemical companies and government agencies as members. The label is carried by some 70,000 products.

Wait wait wait: How2Recycle concluded in August—before the Crunchy wrapper launch in February—that store drop-off won’t solve package recycling woes.

“I don’t think anyone in the packaging industry would tell you Store Drop-Off recycling is as good as curbside recycling with a straight look on their face,” How2Recycle spokesperson Kelly Cramer said in an email. But 65 percent of consumers say they’re changing their behavior because of the group’s label. Of those, 6 percent are taking packaging to retail collection sites, she said.

Wulff said General Mills and the American Chemistry Council are studying how many Americans actually drop their recycling at the store. Until then, Nature Valley’s website directs customers to a council-owned database to find a drop-off site.

The database isn’t specific to granola wrappers, though. Catherine checked with 10 stores spit out by the algorithm and found no takers for Crunchy wrappers.

CORPORATE PROMISES

Swiss Re said Tuesday it aims to exit coal, cut carbon output in its bond and equity portfolio by 35 percent, and up ESG investments by $750 million.

Volkswagen is swinging at Tesla. The automaker will ramp up production of battery cells in Europe and slash costs by as much as half. The plan will cost an estimated $29 billion, Bloomberg reports.

Danon Chairman and CEO Emmanuel Faber is out. The advocate of sustainable agriculture and business practices last year committed the company to the pursuit of social and environmental purpose, adapting the French “entreprise à mission” framework, the Wall Street Journal reports. Shareholders had called for Faber’s ouster, citing Danon’s lackluster share price.

Smithfield Foods aims to halve its use of virgin plastics and said 90 percent of its consumer packaging will be recyclable, reusable or compostable by 2030. Among the company’s challenges: replacing those polystyrene trays used to package meat.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

NAILBITER—After a tough campaign, Mathias Cormann will lead the OECD. The former Australian finance minister made net-zero a central part of his pitch to get the job, squeezing out a narrow win after campaigning in a government jet.

Greenpeace International boss Jennifer Morgan called Cormann’s climate record “atrocious,” but the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. gave an eleventh-hour boost to his candidacy.

Takeaway: The Biden administration doesn’t consider the OECD the place to prioritize climate diplomacy.

POWER TO THE PEOPLE— Finland’s Ministry of the Environment will convene a citizens’ jury to provide feedback on emission reductions. Up to 50 people from a pool of 8,000 Finns will be invited this month. France and the U.K. have citizen assemblies to guide climate policy; Austria just announced a similar plan.

ECONOMICS 202—The U.N. has adopted a plan for valuing the contributions of nature in measures of economic prosperity and human well-being. The system aims to go beyond GDP’s tracking of goods and services to recognize the value of natural capital—forests, wetlands and other ecosystems—in economic reporting. The U.N. framework could play into global climate negotiations in Glasgow later this year.


WASHINGTON WATCH

THE GRID—The Energy Department began work on a $75 million project to boost deployment of low-cost energy storage—something we need to hit critical mass on clean cars and renewable energy. The Grid Launch Project should open by 2025.

—Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) have introduced a bill to extend investment tax credits to energy storage technologies. Reps. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), Mike Doyle (D-Pa.) and Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) have a companion bill in the House.

DIVERSITY ON K— A group of government relations veterans wants more diversity in Washington’s influence ranks. The coalition’s first order of business will be to conduct a demographic survey of Washington lobbying firms, trade groups, and think tanks and release a report by the end of the year.

INFLUENCE—General Motors added four firms to the dozen outside lobby shops it already employs. The new fixers will will buttonhole policymakers on tax treatment for electric vehicles, trade, autonomous vehicles, infrastructure, sustainability and environment.

51-40—Deb Haaland finally got her vote.

WHAT WE'RE CLICKING

—Where are we going to get lithium? Grist tells the story of the battle for Thacker Pass

—If ocean shipping were a country, it would be the sixth-largest carbon emitter, releasing more CO2 than Germany. But change is on the way, Mongabay reports.

 

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