The Daleep Doctrine

From: POLITICO West Wing Playbook - Thursday Feb 24,2022 11:27 pm
Feb 24, 2022 View in browser
 
West Wing Playbook

By Max Tani and Alex Thompson

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DALEEP SINGH was preparing to do his third MSNBC hit in less than 24 hours when the situation in Ukraine began to deteriorate Wednesday evening.

Three people with knowledge of the situation told West Wing Playbook that Singh abruptly pulled out of a scheduled appearance during the 9 p.m. ET hour normally occupied by RACHEL MADDOW as it became clear that Russia was preparing to launch a full-scale invasion of its neighbor.

A relatively unknown figure — at least among people who do not closely follow Federal Reserve interest rates — Singh has quickly become a vital official in the White House and the unlikely tip of the spear in the administration’s economic battle with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN.

Singh made his first appearance at the White House press podium earlier this month, and was back for his second appearance less than a week later. On Thursday, he joined press secretary JEN PSAKI for a third time. "Back by popular demand,” Psaki said by way of introduction. “If he decides he's not going to be an economics expert anymore, he might have a future in our business."

And while Singh hasn’t gotten much press beyond a few short profiles in primarily Indian news publications, in recent days the administration has offered him up to multiple news organizations to talk about sanctions. In addition to those MSNBC hits, he has sat for interviews on CNN, and talked in detail about the administration’s financial and economic pressure campaign against Russia in a stream on Yahoo Finance.

A former Obama Treasury official whose gold-plated resume includes Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve, and an Ivy League education, Singh has also become a key author of the White House’s rolling sanctions scheme, which was designed to serve as both a deterrent and now a punishment for Putin’s actions in Ukraine. His ascension in Biden World has happened publicly and privately. He’s appeared in the media and huddled with the inner circle that Biden convened Thursday morning in the Oval Office to discuss sanctions as the Russian invasion intensified.

Singh’s influence on the administration’s sanctions strategy is easy to find.

During a 2018 Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill, he reflected on his experience implementing sanctions on Russia following its 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. In addition to testifying about how those sanctions were executed, Singh outlined how the U.S. could implement a broader sanctions campaign against Russia in the future.

“Looking back, I draw three main conclusions from the experience,” he said then, according to his written testimony. “One: Sanctions ‘do their job’ if they are carefully designed and embedded into a coherent foreign policy. Two: The signaling of future sanctions is at least as potent as the actions themselves (like any weapon, the best sanctions are never used). And three: sanctions aren’t enough to change behavior.”

He then listed five conditions for another, hypothetical round of sanctions against Russia or another major adversary.

Sanctions against a country like Russia, he said, should demonstrate U.S. resolve and capacity to impose overwhelming costs; limit contagion through the U.S. and global financial system; avoid the appearance of punishing the Russian civilian population; increase the chance of partnering with international allies; and preserve the scope for escalation or de-escalation.

Over the past several weeks, Biden has been following Singh’s strategy to the letter.

In his 2018 testimony, Singh recommended that the U.S. stop the purchase of new Russian sovereign debt, noting that in 2014 he was “more cautious about the unpredictable spillover effects” from that action, but he now saw “no credible argument why U.S. public pension funds and savings vehicles should indirectly fund the Russian government while the latter continues to sponsor violations of U.S. sovereignty.” On Wednesday, Biden announced that the U.S. would no longer allow Russia to raise money or trade new debt on U.S. or European markets. The White House also heeded Singh’s argument that part of the power of sanctions was their impact on market expectations. Russia’s stock market tanked on Thursday.

The strategy is not without political risk. The White House followed Singh’s 2018 recommendation to “preserve scope for escalation” by ramping up sanctions throughout the week, and counting on the sanctions to take their toll in the long term. But Biden, who suggested today that he expects the impact of his policies to take a month to materialize, has continued to face questions from reporters, Ukrainian officials, Republicans, and even some members of his own party about why he is not hitting Putin with an even more aggressive set of sanctions immediately.

That could also draw scrutiny to Singh and his calibrated approach. Thus far, however, the White House has privately been satisfied with his public performance. “He’s always been very well put together, really well spoken, precise. He’s like ‘The Economist’ personified,” one administration official quipped.

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POTUS PUZZLER

From the University of Virginia’s Miller Center 

A fashion-related question for today — which president was known for wearing a pink carnation?

(Answer at the bottom.)

The Oval

OINK — The Biden White House has generally been cautious in attacking his predecessor, DONALD TRUMP . Not today, however. Responding to Trump's Tuesday interview when he called Putin’s Ukraine moves “pretty smart,” deputy press secretary ANDREW BATES sent a tweet on his official White House account calling the pair “two nauseating, fearful pigs who hate what America stands for and whose every action is driven by their their own weakness and insecurity, rubbing their snouts together and celebrating as innocent people lose their lives.”

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This report from Moody’s Analytics that defends the American Rescue Plan. “The ARP has been criticized as being too large, overstimulating an already fast-improving economy and significantly contributing to the currently uncomfortably high inflation,” Moody’s analysts write. “This perspective is not consistent with our results. Without the ARP, the U.S. economy would have come close to suffering a double-digit recession in spring 2021.”

Director of the National Economic Council BRIAN DEESE and American rescue coordinator GENE SPERLING both promoted the report.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This NICK WADHAMS story in Bloomberg, reporting on internal doubts about the sanctions strategy toward Russia . “More than a dozen current and former U.S. officials, many of whom helped assemble the response, told Bloomberg News they’ve been deeply dubious that sanctions would change Putin’s behavior,” Nick reported. “Biden’s aides have said they’re holding heavier punishments in store — but behind the scenes, there’s persistent skepticism about the strategy.”

FAMILY MATTERS: If Republicans retake the majority in the House this fall, the investigations into Biden’s family could go beyond the president’s son, HUNTER. Today, Rep. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.), the ranking member on the House Oversight Subcommittee on the Environment, wrote to White House counsel DANA REMUS asking for internal documents relating to General Motors recent decision to hire Biden’s niece, MISSY OWENS , to be its new head of environmental, social and corporate governance, according to a letter obtained by West Wing Playbook.

“The billions of dollars at stake through the current implementation of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) for the Domestic Electric Vehicles Manufacturing Industry, in particular, raises questions about whether Ms. Owens was offered her position based on merit or because of her direct line to the White House,” Norman wrote.

The White House declined to comment. Biden ran on an ambitious expansion of electric vehicles during the campaign.

Read Detroit News’ write up of the hire earlier this month.

Read Norman’s letter here.

A DISPATCH FROM @NEERA — White House staff secretary NEERA TANDEN dunked on former Rep. TULSI GABBARD (D-Hawaii) last night on Twitter. Gabbard wrote that the war in Ukraine could’ve been prevented “if Biden Admin/NATO had simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO, which would mean U.S./NATO forces right on Russia’s border.”

In response, Tanden wrote all but seven words: “I tried to tell you about her.”

PUTIN READING LIST : Biden told reporters today that “I’ve read of almost everything [Putin’s] written.” ICYMI, here is our look earlier this week on how there is no world leader Biden has likely spent more time thinking about than Putin.

THE BUREAUCRATS

A ROUSE IN THE HOUSE — Morning Money author KATE DAVIDSON is talking with CECILIA ROUSE, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, for a Women Rule interview on Monday Feb. 28 at 12 ET. Register here to watch live.

Agenda Setting

UKRAINE RESPONSE ROUND-UP — On the 2020 campaign trail, Biden emphasized that democracies must triumph over autocracies and that he would work to repair the world order post-Trump White House. Those campaign promises are front and center now as the president navigates the war in Ukraine and tensions with Russia, CHRISTOPHER CADELEGO reports.

“There is a sense that Biden — unlike during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer — has some political space to maneuver. Democrats have been heartened by the bipartisan acclamation for the president’s approach so far,” Chris writes.

FIRST DEFENSE: On Thursday, Biden approved the deployment of 7,000 additional U.S. troops to Germany, bringing the total of troops sent to Europe this month up to 12,000, PAUL MCLEARY reports. According to a statement from the Defense Department, the troops will “include an armored brigade combat team with ‘associated capabilities and enablers.’”

What We're Reading

White House denies report on Biden being presented with cyberattack options against Russia (Reuters)

Vladimir Putin’s revisionist history of Russia and Ukraine (New Yorker’s Isaac Chotiner)

Russians now see a new side to Putin: Dragging them into war (NYT’s Anton Troianovski, whose. Twitter account is also a must-follow right now)

What We're Watching

Former Secretary of State HILLARY CLINTON will be on Morning Joe tomorrow in the 8 a.m. ET hour.

Sec. ANTONY BLINKEN sat down with LESTER HOLT for an interview tonight on NBC Nightly News at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Where's Joe

The president met with the National Security Council this morning to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine in the Situation Room.

He also participated in a virtual G7 leaders meeting to discuss the matter. Secretary of State Blinken and Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN also attended.

In the afternoon, he delivered remarks and took questions on Russia’s attack on Ukraine in the East Room.

Where's Kamala

She joined the president in the National Security Council meeting this morning.

She also ceremonially swore in JOE DONNELLY to serve as the ambassador to the Vatican, and SCOTT NATHAN to be the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.

 

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The Oppo Book

After we noted yesterday that Defense Department press secretary JOHN KIRBY’s 2012 reading list for books about journalism seemed a bit dated, Kirby threw West Wing Playbook an entirely new list of books on media and the digital news environment that he found informative.

He wrote that he “used many of these when I taught public communications at Georgetown the last several years before joining the administration.”

The list includes “Information Wars,” by RICHARD STENGEL, a book about combatting disinformation; “The Presidents vs. The Press,” by HAROLD HOLZER, all about presidents' relationship with the media; “Bearing Witness While Black” by ALISSA V. RICHARDSON about how smartphones and social media have empowered Black citizen journalists; and “ War in 140 Characters,” by DAVID PATRIKARAKOS, which looks at how social media plays a part in world conflicts.

These sound more our speed.

POTUS PUZZLER

WILLIAM MCKINLEY always wore a carnation in his lapel. He was also known for giving it to friends and acquaintances as a token of goodwill. How sweet!

For more on McKinley’s presidency, visit millercenter.org.

A CALL OUT — Do you have a better trivia question? Send us your hardest trivia question on the presidents and we may feature it on Wednesdays.

Edited by Emily Cadei

 

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