Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Allie Bice. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Max No lawmaker has done more to downsize JOE BIDEN’s ambitions than JOE MANCHIN, who took a $3.5 trillion, wide-ranging domestic agenda and whittled it down into a (still historic) deficit reduction package that will reduce the costs of prescription drugs. And as greater Washington D.C. scans over the burned carcass of the Build Back Better initiative that Manchin left behind, it’s engaged in a parlor game of sorts. What, if anything, could the White House have done differently? The answers reveal a fair bit about the modern Democratic mindset, Biden world included. Manchin empathizers say it’s simple: had the president and Senate leadership simply acquiesced to his demands sooner, a deal could have been struck. But most in the party have come to a different conclusion: it was a fait accompli to end up in this place. There was, as CHRIS JENNINGS, founder of Jennings Policy Strategies put it, no “magic bullet.” “A lot of people will say you should have reached out this way or not offended him that way,” said Jennings. “But, in the end, he’s an adult, he makes his own decisions… He was going to have to be comfortable with it. He was going to have to go through his journey.” As one of the party’s most seasoned operatives at crafting high-stakes legislation, Jennings has a unique vantage point on this matter. He was intimately involved in both BILL CLINTON’s failed effort to pass health care reform and BARACK OBAMA’s successful attempt. And he likened Manchin’s process to the unpredictable approaches of past moderate Democrats, from BOB KERREY to JOE LIEBERMAN. Each one, he recounted, were enigmas to the White House, seemingly immune to the sticks and carrots and emotional pleas that win over votes. As top Democrats inside and out of the administration see it, they tried all those things with Manchin, too. Biden directly engaged him and left him alone. The administration applied pressure and dangled goodies. They met his demands, only to — in their mind — see them change. One Democrat briefed on negotiations said that as talks came to a head last week, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s office conceded nearly every climate policy request Manchin made: dropping tax credits for electric vehicles, adding additional measures for drilling and permitting reform, nixing corporate tax hikes and putting in the same credits for hydrogen-battery fueled cars as for electric vehicles. Manchin said he wanted more time to see the inflation report from July. But beyond the quickly-forming consensus that the current trajectory was unavoidable is a secondary conclusion, one far more biting for the White House. And that is they were painfully slow to recognize this reality, sacrificing time and political capital in the process. It’s a synopsis espoused by the right, which has relished watching the Democratic faceplant that transpired. LIAM DONOVAN, a GOP operative who has followed the BBB negotiations like an aspiring rabbi engaged in Talmudic studies, argued that Democratic leadership erred in managing expectations, making it virtually impossible for the party to agree to Manchin’s demands. “They promised the world to everybody and every step of the way was essentially a confidence game to elide all the mistrust,” Donovan said, dubbing the strategy a political version of “fake it till you make it.” Despite the outcome, both protagonists are playing nice — as of now. SAM RUNYON, a Manchin spokesperson, said that “during the entirety of Sen. Manchin’s career in the Senate he has committed himself to working with the sitting president, regardless of political party. He has tremendous respect for President Biden and will continue to look for ways they can work together.” White House spokesman ANDREW BATES added that “President Biden and senior White House staff have been in regular touch with Sen. Manchin,” while noting the two “are longtime friends who share important values about standing up for middle class families.” (A day later, it should be noted, Biden himself said “I haven’t spoken to Sen. Manchin.”) But on the professional left, there is also a belief that the White House’s recognition of legislative realities came far too late. They don’t relish the drama like Donovan. Instead, they look back at the year and a half of negotiations and shudder at all the votes and held-off executive actions that could have been. “We need the White House and Dems to work in parallel rather than serially,” said JEFF HAUSER, a progressive operative and founder and director of the Revolving Door Project. “That means negotiate with Manchin, fine, that makes sense, 50 votes is critical to all sorts of stuff. But do not pause any effort to either implement existing authority within the executive branch or the possibility of pushing single issue bills… just to reduce stimuli during a negotiation with Manchin.” MESSAGE US — Are you MARTIN BROWNE , associate director of advance? We want to hear from you! And we’ll keep you anonymous if you’d like. Or if you think we missed something in today’s edition, let us know and we may include it tomorrow. Email us at westwingtips@politico.com .
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