Money, it’s a drag

From: POLITICO West Wing Playbook - Wednesday Jun 21,2023 09:56 pm
The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.
Jun 21, 2023 View in browser
 
West Wing Playbook

By Christopher Cadelago, Eli Stokols and Lauren Egan

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Nobody in JOE BIDEN’s world of big money donors is sweating it — and least not yet.

But as the president sets out for the customary end-of-quarter haul, with a big swing of fundraising events through America’s big-money alcoves, a concern has crept in. In interviews with more than a dozen bundlers and donors across the country in recent weeks, as well as late-arriving pleas reviewed by West Wing Playbook, people have expressed nervousness that early fundraisers aren’t delivering as they’d hoped.

Sure, they reason, it’s hard in the off-year when you don’t have an opponent to tear into. There will be plenty of time to ensure the future of democracy continues apace. But while the campaign believes its operation is in a good place, others in its orbit are anxious.

Two people who sent out a flurry of invites for fundraising events in California this week said they received only single-digit responses. One joked that the same two or three dozen Democrats were emailing and calling the same list — guaranteeing the low return rate they saw. An email from one fundraiser informed recipients of “limited Reduced Price Tickets” for Biden’s fundraiser Monday evening in tony Atherton, Calif., a development they attributed — dubiously — to “the demand to see the president.” The person who forwarded the email, perhaps ironically, balked at buying a ticket.

Such emails are typical among bundlers trying to bring more people into their fold, and one DNC official dismissed the early anxiety as typical sky-is-falling tactics that bundlers use every election cycle. While Biden won’t share his official fundraising numbers until the end of quarter, a person close to the campaign expressed confidence about building on a successful operation from 2020 that raised a record $1 billion and optimism from seeing significant levels of new donors at the grassroots level, which powered the campaign three years ago.

The California events this week still raised millions. Tuesday afternoon’s fundraiser in Marin County, which was hosted by Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM, brought in roughly $2 million alone, according to an aide to the governor. But the gatherings were smaller than organizers had hoped, and had fewer new faces in the crowd. That said, the campaign ended the three-day swing encouraged by the events in California.

Another Biden bundler described the struggle to sell the high-dollar tickets for a Nashville event this coming weekend with first lady JILL BIDEN. While the less expensive tickets were an easier sell, the fundraiser said the city’s top Democratic donors were stretched thin given the competitive mayoral and city council races taking place in August.

Biden is a notoriously poor fundraiser, having struggled with it during his prior presidential bids. But the good news this time around, as he seeks to raise $2 billion this cycle, is that he has time and little immediate need to spend. Not having a primary allows him to sock cash away for next year’s bruising general election.

The bad news about having no primary is that fundraising this early in the cycle is harder, with donors still exhausted from last fall’s midterms and less than fully engaged in an election still 16 months away. As one person with knowledge of the fundraising efforts put it: “The money they are getting now is mostly the low-hanging fruit.”

Campaign veterans will point out that’s often how it goes in the early months, with dollars freely flowing in once the opponent is clear. For comparison, former president BARACK OBAMA raised a combined $86 million for his campaign and the DNC in the second quarter of 2011 after declaring his candidacy for reelection.

Ultimately, Democratic bundlers expect Biden will raise however much cash is required for an election cycle that, like each one before it, is all but certain to shatter records for the amount spent. And whether donors are enthused about a second Biden term or not, the prospect of former President DONALD TRUMP taking back the White House will likely be enough to scare them into smashing the “DONATE” button.

But in the short term, finances have been a primary factor in the campaign’s slow operational launch and ramp up. Two months after Biden’s April announcement, the timing of which was triggered in part by the hiring of a film crew to make a launch video, there are only a few people on staff under campaign manager JULIE CHÁVEZ RODRÍGUEZ, who is currently working out of the Democratic National Committee’s offices in Washington.

Relying almost entirely still on the DNC’s data, research and communications teams and holding off on renting space for a separate headquarters has allowed the campaign to spend almost nothing so far. Biden, in fact, is the first presidential candidate to begin the cycle with joint fundraising agreements between his campaign and state parties in all 50 states and Washington. That coordination, a point of emphasis for Biden’s political operation in the lull between presidential election cycles, is expected to mean more staffers and volunteers on the ground in key states.

But for all the good spin about the structure in place, a simple truth remains about the state of Biden’s campaign coffers: his team isn’t really giving a detailed picture of it. After its video launch, the campaign did not disclose how much it brought in from donors in the first 24 or 48 hours. The first clear picture will come next month, once its first quarterly FEC report is disclosed.

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POTUS PUZZLER

This one is from Allie. Which president left a note to his successor on stationery that said: “Don’t let the turkeys get you down.” And who was the note written to?

(Answer at bottom.)

The Oval

NO LABELS DRAMA BUILDS: A new poll from Data for Progress found that any potential third-party candidate backed by the Washington organization No Labels has no path whatsoever to the White House but could play spoiler for Biden and enable a victory by DONALD TRUMP. Testing both former Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN and a generic third-party candidate, the poll found them garnering support from just 6 percent of likely voters but that their inclusion on the ballot turns a narrow Biden advantage (47-45) into a dead even race.

One potential No Labels candidate, Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), has yet to say whether he’ll seek reelection to the Senate next year or another office. Our BURGESS EVERETT reports that some Democrats close to Manchin are trying to dissuade him of a third-party presidential bid. Sen. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-Colo.) said that he’s tried to tell the West Virginian that a White House run would only help Trump. “I have advised him against it. I think it would be a terrible idea,” said Hickenlooper, who also described Manchin’s private reaction. “He looked at me and he nodded.”

CALIFORNIA LU-UV: The Biden administration’s relationship with California Gov. Gavin Newsom is on the mend, after tensions grew over the governor’s earlier critiques of its messaging on issues like abortion. On the president’s trip to California this week, the governor appeared to assume a new role as a Biden surrogate, our Christopher Cadelago and JENNIFER HABERKORN report.

HARRIS MAKES SOME HISTORY: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS scrambled her schedule Wednesday to head to the Capitol to cast a tie-breaking vote to advance the judicial nomination of NATASHA MERLE for a role in the U.S. court in the Eastern District of New York. Harris was needed by Democrats after Manchin voted against Merle. The vote was Harris’s 30th in her role. One more and she’ll match former Vice President JOHN C. CALHOUN’s record for the most tie-breaking votes ever.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This CNN opinion piece by Moody Analytics economist MARK ZANDI about why he’s “betting against a recession.” Zandi writes “there’s no shame in the consensus that we would follow a familiar recession pattern now. However, this time is different. Yes, the economy is fragile and vulnerable to losing the script. And goodness knows we have been off script more often than not in recent years. But odds are that we will buck history and avoid recession.” The White House press office sent the piece to reporters Wednesday in an “ICYMI” email.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: Anything about the president’s latest approval rating. According to the Pew Research Center, “35 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, while 62 percent disapprove. Biden’s job approval has changed little in the past year.”

HOWDY, MODI: Biden and India’s Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI will hold a traditional East Room press conference Thursday as part of Modi’s state visit, the White House announced Wednesday. Typically, these are known as a “two-by-two” — with questions allowed from two reporters from each country. But there is chatter within the press corps that questions at Thursday’s presser could be even more limited.

ICYMI: Biden called Chinese President XI JINPING a dictator at a campaign event in California on Tuesday night. “The reason why Xi Jinping got very upset in terms of when I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment is he didn’t know it was there,” the president said, according to a White House pool report. “That was the great embarrassment for dictators, when they didn’t know what happened.” Our ANDREW ZHANG has the story.

THE BUREAUCRATS

TEN-FOOT POLE STUFF: Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND is staying away from the news of HUNTER BIDEN’s plea deal, referring questions to the U.S. attorney overseeing the Delaware probe. “As I said from the moment of my appointment as attorney general, I would leave this matter in the hands of the United States attorney, who was appointed by the previous president and assigned to this matter by the previous administration,” Garland said Wednesday during a news conference in Sweden. Our MATT BERG has more here.

Filling the Ranks

LIKE THE TRAINS OFTEN ARE THEMSELVES: The nominations of ANTHONY COSCIA, CHRIS KOOS and JOEL SZABAT to serve on Amtrak's Board of Directors remain frozen after lawmakers aired out their concerns in a hearing Wednesday. Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) and Republicans took issue with the fact that the nominees are all from the Northeast Corridor and pushed for a nominee from outside the region, our ALEX DAUGHERTY reports for Pro s.

EEOC RESHUFFLE: Biden on Wednesday also nominated CHARLOTTE A. BURROWS to serve another term on the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, the White House announced. A civil rights attorney, she has served as the chair of the EEOC since January 2021.

Agenda Setting

PRIME DAY GONNA BE LIT: The Federal Trade Commission on Wednesday sued Amazon, accusing the e-commerce giant of subscribing millions of users to Amazon Prime without proper consent and violating the law as a result, our ALFRED NG and JOSH SISCO report. The agency claims Amazon “didn’t address any concerns until it learned about the FTC’s investigation.” FTC Chair LINA KHAN said the company “tricked and trapped people into recurring subscriptions without their consent, not only frustrating users but also costing them significant money.”

GETTING TO WORK: After years of backlogs, the Internal Revenue Service has hit a productive stride, having “processed tens of millions of tax returns faster this year compared with past years while getting through to customer service on the phone is slowly improving,” AP’s FATIMA HUSSEIN reports.

 

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What We're Reading

Justice Samuel Alito Took Luxury Fishing Vacation With GOP Billionaire Who Later Had Cases Before the Court (ProPublica’s Justin Elliott, Joshua Kaplan and Alex Mierjeski)

America’s Bad Bet on India (Ashley J. Tellis for Foreign Affairs)

McCarthy urges Republicans to reject quick Biden impeachment vote (NBC’s Scott Wong and Rebecca Kaplan)

The Oppo Book

Earlier this month, Fed Chair JEROME POWELL was spotted at a Dead and Co. concert in Virginia. The concert is part of the band’s farewell tour, which was an ode to the Grateful Dead rock band, consisting of some of its original band members and singer JOHN MAYER.

When asked during a hearing Wednesday about the show, Powell said it was “great.”

“It was terrific, what can I say?” he said. “I’ve been a Grateful Dead fan for 50 years.”

What was your favorite show, Mr. Chairman?

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

President RONALD REAGAN wrote a note to successor GEORGE H.W. BUSH on stationery with the text on top that said: “Don’t let the turkeys get you down.” “Dear George, You’ll have moments when you want to use this particular stationary. Well, go to it,” the note read.

A CALL OUT — Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it.

Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.

 

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