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From: POLITICO West Wing Playbook - Wednesday Oct 25,2023 10:11 pm
The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.
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West Wing Playbook

By Jennifer Haberkorn, Adam Cancryn, Lauren Egan, Myah Ward and Lawrence Ukenye

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Benjamin Johansen and producer Raymond Rapada.

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Three weeks ago, there was a sense of schadenfreude inside the White House as House Republicans tossed KEVIN MCCARTHY from the speaker’s chair.

On Wednesday, the election of Rep. MIKE JOHNSON to replace McCarthy produced an entirely different reaction: surprise and then resignation.

Few, if any, individuals inside the White House have extensive experience working with Johnson, a relatively obscure congressman in his fourth term, known mainly for his conservative views, strong support for overturning Biden’s 2020 election, alliance with former President DONALD TRUMP and a friendly, modest demeanor.

Johnson visited the White House in May to celebrate the Louisiana State University women’s basketball championship. But beyond that, he and the president haven’t really interacted. Until Wednesday, when JOE BIDEN called him shortly after his election.

The relationship between a speaker and president from opposing parties hasn’t been close in decades. NANCY PELOSI disdained Trump and communication between them was nonexistent. The Biden White House had little trust in McCarthy. Neither PAUL RYAN nor JOHN BOEHNER were close with BARACK OBAMA.

But, even by those standards, the Johnson-Biden dynamic will still represent a truly unique type of contrast. The men don’t just hail from different parts of the country, they’re polar opposites ideologically, 30 years apart in age, and worlds apart in political experience. Biden allies — like some senators — have spent the last 24 hours furiously Googling the Louisiana lawmaker and vetting his record.

There had been concerns within the administration about the chaos that could ensue after McCarthy got the boot, according to a White House official, with the belief that the ensuing chaos would be bad for the nation. But the White House largely stayed out of the process, believing it didn’t have a role to play and that any interference from the president might only make the situation worse. Aides instead watched the drama closely, and made preparations for individual candidates as they emerged.

Among them, House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE was seen as the one with whom they were most likely to have constructive relations. The White House generally viewed Scalise as an established House leader and it was expected that there would be a continuation of the professional relationship they had with McCarthy, according to administration officials and aides on Capitol Hill granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations.

There were also some preexisting back-channel relationships between Scalise’s office and Democrats in the administration, including OMB director SHALANDA YOUNG and campaign co-chair CEDRIC RICHMOND, both of whom hailed from Scalise’s home state of Louisiana.

By contrast, Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN’s candidacy was viewed with deep suspicion inside the administration, given his support for overturning the 2020 election and his role leading the nascent effort on Capitol Hill to impeach Biden. When his candidacy for speaker fizzled, there wasn’t just relief among Biden aides but a tinge of vindication, too.

After a second referendum on Jordan's speakership candidacy failed, one Biden adviser gleefully texted: "Don't call for a comment right now. I am laughing so hard I can't speak."

The third man selected as GOP speaker nominee — Majority Whip TOM EMMER — was seen as someone with leadership experience and a willingness to acknowledge the 2020 election results. But his stint as speaker-designee was so brief (a mere four hours) that honest assessments of it weren’t firmly formed.

Instead, by week three of the process, Biden advisers had come to the belief that anyone who could win the speakership outright would likely be too weak to buck conservatives on issues like Ukraine funding and government funding unless the entire dynamics of the House GOP changed. They took note that Emmer, prior to his immolation, had sought to shore up his bid by aggressively combating allegations he disliked Trump.

Still, not everyone is of the mindset that the Johnson-Biden dynamic will be akin to oil and water. Those relationships that Biden confidantes had with Scalise may still come in handy with Johnson, who is also from Louisiana and is expected to rely heavily on the majority leader, who will continue to serve at the No. 2 House Republican.

And Rep. TROY CARTER, the only Democrat in the Louisiana delegation and someone who served with Johnson in the state legislature, said he expects Biden and Johnson to get along personally and professionally.

Johnson, he said, won’t resort to “flame throwing and hand grenade launching.”

“He is someone that ideologically, we couldn’t be further apart, but he’s a decent individual,” Carter said. “He’s a decent human being and one that is civil, respectful and one that I believe we can work with.”

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POTUS PUZZLER

Thanks to the White House Historical Association for this question!

Which president liked to enjoy relaxing at the Little White House in Key West, Fla.?

(Answer at bottom.)

The Oval

STATE VISIT SPLIT SCREEN: Biden welcomed Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE to the White House on Wednesday to highlight both countries’ growing defense and technology ties. But between Johnson’s ascension and the conflict in Gaza, let’s just say it wasn’t the best day for a state visit to get attention.

On the latter, Biden vowed to respond if Iran and its proxies targeted U.S. personnel in the region, our ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL reports. “My warning to the Ayatollah was that if they continue to move against those troops, we will respond and he should be prepared. It has nothing to do with Israel,” Biden said, on the heels of several attacks against American soldiers and military installations in the Middle East amid the outbreak of a war between Israel and Hamas.

COMMUNICATION PIVOT: The White House is changing its messaging on Ukraine in hopes of gaining additional Republican support, our JONATHAN LEMIRE and Jennifer Haberkorn report. Aides recognize that to sell the $106 billion supplemental request, they have to emphasize more than national security interests and stress the American jobs being created by expanding the U.S. industrial defense base.

“Some Republicans say they’ve been telling the Biden administration that their rhetoric around Ukraine has been subpar and that to gain House GOP support — and preserve the stronger support in the Senate — they have to change their message,” Lemire and Haberkorn write.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This piece by MICHAEL MCFAUL for The Atlantic praising Biden’s foreign policy acumen, from the handling the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, to leading the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and now, managing the growing Israel-Gaza war. McFaul argues that Biden is the right guy for the job amid growing global crises, touting the administration's diplomatic chops.

“Americans are lucky to have President Biden and his foreign-policy team in charge of national security right now… they have made smart moves in defense of American interests and values,” McFaul writes.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece by Bloomberg’s MARK NIQUETTE about how a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found Wisconsin voters deeply skeptical of Biden’s performance. Seventy-nine percent of registered voters in the Badger State believe the economy is on the wrong track, a higher percentage than the 74 percent who said the same across seven swing states. “The results show challenging terrain for Biden’s campaign in a state that has recently been won by exceedingly narrow margins,” Niquette writes.

ALSOthis piece by WaPo’s MARISA IATI and COLBY ITKOWITZ about how voters are growing increasingly frustrated with the Biden administration’s approach to the Israel-Gaza war. The reporters note that Biden’s support of Israel risks rupturing the base he relied on in 2020.

“With the election a year away, the war could well fade into the background by the time Americans cast their votes,” Iati and Itkowitz write. “But in interviews, progressive voters and younger activists said they will not forget Biden’s full-throated support of Israel.”

THE BUREAUCRATS

ROUNDING THIRD BASE: JACK LEW is one step closer to being confirmed as the U.S. ambassador to Israel. Biden’s diplomatic pick cleared a Senate Foreign Relations Committee panel on Wednesday in a 12-9 vote, our JOE GOULD reports.

While Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) joined Democrats in advancing Lew’s nomination, Republicans continued to voice opposition to his bid for his role in crafting the 2015 Iran nuclear deal while serving as Treasury secretary in the Obama administration.

PERSONNEL MOVES: MAXINE BURKETT is now assistant director for climate, ocean, and equity at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. She most recently was deputy assistant secretary for oceans, fisheries and polar affairs at the State Department.

LEANNE NOELANI HOWARD is now special adviser for the NATO Summit at the NSC, coordinating planning for the 75th NATO Summit in Washington next year. She most recently was senior strategy and policy adviser at NATO SOF headquarters.

— BETHANY PETROFSKY is now director for strategic initiatives at the White House Council on Environmental Quality. She most recently was executive officer of the Office of Procurement at NASA.

Agenda Setting

DOWNHILL FROM HERE: Biden administration officials are increasingly fearful that violence in the Middle East could spiral into a larger regional conflict, our NAHAL TOOSI, LARA SELIGMAN and PAUL MCLEARY report. A senior defense official said the Pentagon expects the possibility of a “significant escalation against U.S. forces and personnel in the near term.”

Aside from concerns about U.S. personnel in the region, officials are also concerned about violence erupting along the Israeli-Lebanese border, the West Bank and other Middle Eastern capitals where there is significant support for Palestine.

TURNING TO THE INTERNET FOR ADVICE: Many borrowers who feel abandoned by the Biden administration on how to approach the resumption of student loan repayment are turning to social media influencers for guidance, our BIANCA QUILANTAN reports.

“They offer tips for slashing payments but some are adding to the internet’s stew of falsehoods that bury the occasional piece of solid advice,” Bianca writes. “Losing Gen Z and millennial borrowers to online self help risks letting confusion fester into frustration and turning one of Biden’s biggest economic promises into an election liability.”

What We're Reading

Biden should take Dean Phillips’s 2024 campaign seriously, not literally (WaPo’s Henry Olsen)

Biden Seeks to Tame Oil Prices if Mideast Conflict Sends Them Soaring (NYT’s Jim Tankersley and Ben Casselman)

Iran oil sales are surging and Hamas is terrorizing. Is Biden to blame? (WaPo’s Glenn Kessler)

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

President HARRY S. TRUMAN liked to vacation in Key West to relax at the Little White House located in the Naval Station. While there, Truman’s day consisted of a morning walk, breakfast on the presidential yacht “Williamsburg,” working on his mail, discussions on politics and policy, swimming, and poker in the evenings, according to the White House Historical Association.

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.

 

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